Packers and Aaron Rodgers...Awww ISH

[flamingrey]

Crash, you may be misunderstanding 'vertical passing game.' I think most of us understand that we're not going to throw 40 yard passes 7 times a game. I am worried about just being sure our offense can successfully incorporate a 15-25 yard pass plays where we're not relying on a WR or TE to break two tackles.

Every WC offense takes shots down the field. That's the only way to keep the defense honest and keep the short passing game open. Crash wants to believe we don't take many shots down the field because we're trying to be "old school" (something he made up out of thin air), but the fact of the matter is the offense is limited to Dalton's (in)abilities. He can't consistently get the ball down the field, so the shots downfield are limited.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Ridiculous.... Without looking it up, I'm fairly confident that average passing yards in the mid 80s were MUCH different than they are now. You can't really compare stats across eras.

There are not many old WCO left in the NFL. So because Dalton is not as good as vertical QB's in the midern ERA of football, he is all of a sudden not a decent QB even though his stats rival those from an ERA not long ago?

Seriously, if you guys expect Rodgers or Kaepernick out of him, then I guess there is nothing I can say.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Every WC offense takes shots down the field. That's the only way to keep the defense honest and keep the short passing game open. Crash wants to believe we don't take many shots down the field because we're trying to be "old school" (something he made up out of thin air), but the fact of the matter is the offense is limited to Dalton's (in)abilities. He can't consistently get the ball down the field, so the shots downfield are limited.

Yet he still completes the 6th highest percent in the NFL downfield even with ZERO deep drops. Get bent snapperhead.

 

[flamingrey]

I think Cincinnati has a better shot than some of you guys are giving them. GB is going to be down their slot corner and best Safety which plays to Cincy's strengths with those 2 TEs. If they stick to a heavy dose of those guys and keep attacking the middle of the secondary they'll probably have some success. The biggest thing I could see getting in the way of that is if Clay Matthews goes off.

I don't know that much about Cincinnati but I believe you typically play great D at home so I'm expecting it to be a really good game.

For the most part, we run a bend-but-don't-break defense. It absolutely kills us against the best QB's as they're too good to contain at the "don't-break" point of the field.

 

[cincygrad]

There are not many old WCO left in the NFL. So because Dalton is not as good as vertical QB's in the midern ERA of football, he is all of a sudden not a decent QB even though his stats rival those from an ERA not long ago?

Seriously, if you guys expect Rodgers or Kaepernick out of him, then I guess there is nothing I can say.

Offense evolves. WC principles still exist in the NFL, but they probably seem different than they were in the 80s. That doesn't make Gruden some sort of throwback. He's just like every other guy trained in that tradition and he has definitely evolved with the game as well. And you can be damn sure he'd be pumping the ball down field if his personnel allowed.

 

[flamingrey]

Since everyone likes PFF stats...

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/06/29/three-years-of-deep-passing/

This article shows the deep threat QB's in the league and what they do. Most all these teams go deep a whole crap ton. At the bottom of this article is one chart for most accurate deep downfield throwers. Dalton is on this list as one of the most accurate, difference is, he just does not go deep that often. So it isn't that he can't go deep, or that he can't complete a pass deep, just that his style offense does not predicate this type of throw very often. You will notice in that same chart, of all the QB's on that list, Dalton has ZERO deep drops, where everyone else has at least 3. 46.7% completing deep balls is good enough for 6th in the NFL, with no deep drop backs to be in position to really step into a bomb like some of these guys. Usually Dalton is droping back 3 steps and then finding his WR, if the match up favors Green on the outside, he will hit it if possible.

I know what a vertical passing game is, and it shows that the elite QB's of the league are in a vertical passing offense now a days with multiple threats downfield. Dalton is not that same QB, not that he could be super at that, but put him in one of those offenses, and maybe he could do pretty well with that type of offense, but who knows, because that is not the style offense that Gruden runs, nor cares to run.

This might be the most lop-sided analysis of stats I've ever read.

Team A goes deep 10 times a game while Team B goes deep 5 times a game. The coverages of the defense are going to be entirely differently. Team A is going to see defensive coverage that covers the deep end of the field far more than the coverage Team B sees. In the same way, a team that runs the ball 60% of the time will see 8 in the box far more often than a team that runs the ball 40% of the time.

Point being, the fact that Dalton is going deep far less than the other QBs means he's seeing easier opportunities than the rest to go deep.

Furthermore, the fact that Dalton has zero drops means his receivers are doing their jobs and making it EASIER for him. A drop simply means that the receiver had the ball in his hands, but dropped the pass. It isn't an indication of accuracy.

Dalton also has all of 28 completions deep. Of those 28, I wonder how many are to Green, one of the best receivers in the game.

Lastly, the above is further evidenced by the rest of the lower tiered QB's on the list (Young, Garrard, Moore) also each having far fewer attempts deep than the elite QB's on the list.

That is a list of QB's with the highest completion percentage deep; HOWEVER, the list can be broken into 2 categories: QB's that have a high % due to elite talent and QB's that have a high % due to circumstances.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

This might be the most lop-sided analysis of stats I've ever read.

Team A goes deep 10 times a game while Team B goes deep 5 times a game. The coverages of the defense are going to be entirely differently. Team A is going to see defensive coverage that covers the deep end of the field far more than the coverage Team B sees. In the same way, a team that runs the ball 60% of the time will see 8 in the box far more often than a team that runs the ball 40% of the time.

Point being, the fact that Dalton is going deep far less than the other QBs means he's seeing easier opportunities than the rest to go deep.

Furthermore, the fact that Dalton has zero drops means his receivers are doing their jobs and making it EASIER for him. A drop simply means that the receiver had the ball in his hands, but dropped the pass. It isn't an indication of accuracy.

Dalton also has all of 28 completions deep. Of those 28, I wonder how many are to Green, one of the best receivers in the game.

Lastly, the above is further evidenced by the rest of the lower tiered QB's on the list (Young, Garrard, Moore) also each having far fewer attempts deep than the elite QB's on the list.

That is a list of QB's with the highest completion percentage deep; HOWEVER, the list can be broken into 2 categories: QB's that have a high % due to elite talent and QB's that have a high % due to circumstances.

And once again, Dalton doesn't run a deep threat offense, so his opportunities are goign to be considerably less, especially with the fact we have ONE vertical threat, and that is AJ who is doubled most of the time. Why throw it deep to a double covered Green when you have Gresham, Bernard, Eifert, Sanu underneath and one of them is probably open?

We are not EVER goign to go deep much, not just because of Dalton's limitations, but because that is not how Gruden runs his offense, and as you said, we do not have the personnel, moreso that our #2 and #3 WR's don't provide that threat, than the fact Dalton can't go deep.

Does AJ help Dalton's completion percent down field? Hell yes, same as Calvin Johnson will improve Stafford's downfield accuracy, the same way Andre Johnson improves Schaub's, etc.

We do not hav ethe WR's to run the vertical threat offense, and the system doesn't allow for many opportunities downfield. Basically the downfield throw is just to keep the defense honest to free up the 10 to 15 yard stuff.

Don't get mad at me because you don't agree, the facts are pretty obvious that Gruden doesn't run that kind of offense and probably never will. Yes, his WCO has evolved from the 80's WCO, but it is still pretty standard for the most part. It is short passes, quick drops, hots, timing patterns, dump offs, screens, ect. It is an offense meant to increase the accuracy of the QB, make the playmakers work for the extra yards, to keep the chains moving, but take 10-15 plays to drive the entire field to score. It is a grind it out type of offense that is passing oriented still. Just not the deep pass like some of you want. Gruden drafted Dalton for a reason. Of all the QB's in the draft, he wanted Dalton. He didn't want Newton, even though he ad no chance at him, he didn't want Kaepernick, he didn't want Mallet, he wanted Dalton. Dalton was the guy he wanted to run his offense.

 

[flamingrey]

Please first provide a single shred of evidence that Gruden would not implement more of a vertical offense if he had the QB to do so. You're making up your own "facts".

Secondly, you're acting as if the draft is an exact science. That Gruden KNEW what he was getting with Dalton and he KNEW what he would have gotten with the rest. You're even more delusional than I thought if you really believe Gruden wouldn't trade Dalton for Kaepernick straight up right NOW if he could.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Please first provide a single shred of evidence that Gruden would not implement more of a vertical offense if he had the QB to do so. You're making up your own "facts".

Secondly, you're acting as if the draft is an exact science. That Gruden KNEW what he was getting with Dalton and he KNEW what he would have gotten with the rest. You're even more delusional than I thought if you really believe Gruden wouldn't trade Dalton for Kaepernick straight up right NOW if he could.

Once again, you provide me with evidence that he would change the style offense if he had different personnel. I mean, you can't provide evidence, just the same as me.

However, Gruden is on record of saying he wanted Dalton over anyone else in the draft at QB, because Dalton was the guy that was perfectly suited to run his offense. So at least I have something on record that has been stated before, unlike your claim that he would change his entire offense if he had a chance to change QB's only. So please get off your fucking high horse and superior fucking attitude. You argue against me, and that is fine, but at least my arguement has some supporting statements from Gruden himself at some point, where yours is completely circumstantial with ZERO evidence to support your theory.

So please, STFU.

I am not stating Dalton is a top tier QB in the league, but he is suited very well for Gruden's style offense, and that makes him an above average QB considering the offense he is integrated into.

 

[ckhokie]

And once again, Dalton doesn't run a deep threat offense, so his opportunities are goign to be considerably less, especially with the fact we have ONE vertical threat, and that is AJ who is doubled most of the time. Why throw it deep to a double covered Green when you have Gresham, Bernard, Eifert, Sanu underneath and one of them is probably open?

We are not EVER goign to go deep much, not just because of Dalton's limitations, but because that is not how Gruden runs his offense, and as you said, we do not have the personnel, moreso that our #2 and #3 WR's don't provide that threat, than the fact Dalton can't go deep.

Stop it, Crash. It's because Dalton can't get the ball there accurately. Look around the league. MOST teams have a single legitament deep threat. It's not like every other team has 3 deep ball receivers and we're stuck with one. The Saints and Green Bay seem to have a lot of deep threat receivers...but they also have two of the most accurate QBs in the league...funny how that works. Stafford finds a way to get it to Megatron, Matt Ryan can goes deep to Julio and not really anyone else, Cutler pretty much goes specifically to Brandon Marshall when he throws 20+ yards.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Stop it, Crash. It's because Dalton can't get the ball there accurately. Look around the league. MOST teams have a single legitament deep threat. It's not like every other team has 3 deep ball receivers and we're stuck with one. The Saints and Green Bay seem to have a lot of deep threat receivers...but they also have two of the most accurate QBs in the league...funny how that works. Stafford finds a way to get it to Megatron, Matt Ryan can goes deep to Julio and not really anyone else, Cutler pretty much goes specifically to Brandon Marshall when he throws 20+ yards.

And AJ Green gets his catches still with double coverages deep. Green and Dalton hooked up for several passes over 20+ yards last year and what, like 5 to 6 over 40 yards? It isn't like Green is not getting deep ball opportunities.

Those guys you mentioned, Megatron, Marshall, Julio...they may be their QB's main targets downfield, but they are open mmore downfield because they are not doubled as much, well Megatron is because he is a freak, but White can go deep and pulls coverage off Jones, while Jefferies and Hester pull cover off Marshall deep. These other teams you meantion, t hey still have a THREAT deep outside the main guy, which is why it is easier to get the ball deep to the main guys. We have AJ Green, and then a whole slew of slot WR's. There is ZERO deep threat on our team minus Green.

Green still gets his chances deep, even with double coverage, and Dalton is still completing the 2nd highest percent of passes downfield in the NFL at 46.7%. Does he go deep alot? Nope, because that is not how Gruden runs his offense. He goes deep when he needs to open things up, or when the defense allows us to take a chance deep.

Our offensive passing game is 5 yards and a cloud of dust. It is not an air it out attack like a lot of clubs are, especially GB. Yes, Rodgers is a much better QB, who is denying that? All I am saying is, in our system, Dalton is an above average QB. In an air it our system, he would probably be AVERAGE. Dalton still has his limitations, but fortunately for us and the Bengals, Gruden's system plays on Dalton's strengths and subsidizes his weaknesses. Not every deep pass is goign to be hit, and not every wide open WR is going to be completed too. It just doesn't happen. QB's have issues sometimes. Roethlisberger had a hell of a time hitting his wide open WR's Monday night also.

People are just expecting too much from Dalton, and need him to be Aaron Rodgers and not the QB for our system. In our system, Dalton is just fine, not much wrong with him at all.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Sanu is still a freakishly good athlete, people keep repeating that he's a slot because some expert said he was, but he's our #2 it just happens that one of our tight ends is a better #2.

Jones is improving, it's his second year, time for him to make a difference as well.

our wide receivers are fine, not every team gets to have 2 #1 receivers, and still, even if we had a Chris Henry, he couldn't go too deep before he'd be out of Dalton's range.

 

[Servo]

And AJ Green gets his catches still with double coverages deep. Green and Dalton hooked up for several passes over 20+ yards last year and what, like 5 to 6 over 40 yards? It isn't like Green is not getting deep ball opportunities.

Those guys you mentioned, Megatron, Marshall, Julio...they may be their QB's main targets downfield, but they are open mmore downfield because they are not doubled as much, well Megatron is because he is a freak, but White can go deep and pulls coverage off Jones, while Jefferies and Hester pull cover off Marshall deep. These other teams you meantion, t hey still have a THREAT deep outside the main guy, which is why it is easier to get the ball deep to the main guys. We have AJ Green, and then a whole slew of slot WR's. There is ZERO deep threat on our team minus Green.

Green still gets his chances deep, even with double coverage, and Dalton is still completing the 2nd highest percent of passes downfield in the NFL at 46.7%. Does he go deep alot? Nope, because that is not how Gruden runs his offense. He goes deep when he needs to open things up, or when the defense allows us to take a chance deep.

Our offensive passing game is 5 yards and a cloud of dust. It is not an air it out attack like a lot of clubs are, especially GB. Yes, Rodgers is a much better QB, who is denying that? All I am saying is, in our system, Dalton is an above average QB. In an air it our system, he would probably be AVERAGE. Dalton still has his limitations, but fortunately for us and the Bengals, Gruden's system plays on Dalton's strengths and subsidizes his weaknesses. Not every deep pass is goign to be hit, and not every wide open WR is going to be completed too. It just doesn't happen. QB's have issues sometimes. Roethlisberger had a hell of a time hitting his wide open WR's Monday night also.

People are just expecting too much from Dalton, and need him to be Aaron Rodgers and not the QB for our system. In our system, Dalton is just fine, not much wrong with him at all.

I agree that Dalton is fine...my issue is that fine is not good enough. If we really want to see the Bengals succeed, and by succeed I mean be a legitimate SB contender, they need a QB that does not limit the offense. Dalton does. On paper, he looks fine. In fact, on paper he looks better than John Elway (IMO the best QB of all time) during his first two years which highlights how ridiculous it is to use QB stats now as a barometer to compare against previous eras.

When I look at the Bengals I see a SB roster that is held back by two things: 1). We do not have a game changer at QB 2). Our HC. I'm willing to give Dalton this year to prove that he can be the guy that can win games instead of just managing them. But I'd be lying if I said I believed in the guy. Like I said earlier, I just don't think he has the talent. I think he's Jon Kitna playing for a loaded offense. Good guy, easy to like and root for but has a skillset that is more in line with back up QB's rather than starters.

 

[ckhokie]

People are just expecting too much from Dalton, and need him to be Aaron Rodgers and not the QB for our system. In our system, Dalton is just fine, not much wrong with him at all.

I don't think people are expecting too much from him at all. The window for success in the NFL is very small. I think many of us recognize that we're at that point where we have most of the pieces in place to make a SB push - something we haven't been able to say for a VERY long time. Quarterback play and head coaching gaffes are, whether you admit it or not, what's holding us back. Sure, Dalton may be able to get (read: ride) the team to the playoffs, but I don't think we should be content with losing in the first round every year considering the talent on the roster.

 

[RoboticDreams]

 

[Servo]

Sanu is still a freakishly good athlete, people keep repeating that he's a slot because some expert said he was, but he's our #2 it just happens that one of our tight ends is a better #2.

Jones is improving, it's his second year, time for him to make a difference as well.

our wide receivers are fine, not every team gets to have 2 #1 receivers, and still, even if we had a Chris Henry, he couldn't go too deep before he'd be out of Dalton's range.

Our offense is loaded. There is no excuse for not putting up points. Last year people would highlight Kyle Cook as the reason that Dalton couldn't move the ball which is ridiculous. the argument basically was 'Give Andy Dalton a clean pocket and a stud WR to play opposite his ridiculously amazing WR in AJ Green and he'll friggin pick you apart' What NFL QB wouldn't? The fact of the matter is that every team has holes on the Oline. Every team would like to have more playmakers at the skill positions. The Bengals are one of the few teams that has a wealth of playmakers on offense coupled with a good Oline.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I don't think people are expecting too much from him at all. The window for success in the NFL is very small. I think many of us recognize that we're at that point where we have most of the pieces in place to make a SB push - something we haven't been able to say for a VERY long time. Quarterback play and head coaching gaffes are, whether you admit it or not, what's holding us back. Sure, Dalton may be able to get (read: ride) the team to the playoffs, but I don't think we should be content with losing in the first round every year considering the talent on the roster.

Who is to say the team is not riding on Dalton's coat tails?

He is averaging 280 yards a game so far, has 3 TD passes, and 2 INT's, only 1/2 of one do I consider Daltons fault. He will probably wind up with close to 30 TD's wit the weapons around him.

Why do you think Dalton is going to lose a playoff game for us this year? Isn't he allowed to grow as a player, or do you think he has completely maxxed out his ability and will will never be more than a first round loser? He improved from his rookie year to his second year in the playoffs. 5 yards difference on one throw, and everyone would be singing a different tune had he hit Green in the back of the endzone in Houston.

Dalton is on pace to throw for over 4000 yards, he will probably have 30+ TD's, and complete about 64% or better of his passes. Are you really goign to sit here and say he is a liability to this team if that occurs? So he doesn't always hit the deep pass, and yes, his playmakers get a lot of YAC, but that is what the offense is designed to do. So if the above happens:

64% Completion / 4000 yards / 30 TD's

Is Dalton really a liability, or are you guys just lying to yourself, because you want us to draft the next Aaron Rodgers, and if we have Dalton, we will not even select a QB? Is that what you guys are scared of? Going to be real hard to select an Aaron Rodgers at the bottom of the 1st round every year.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Our offense is loaded. There is no excuse for not putting up points. Last year people would highlight Kyle Cook as the reason that Dalton couldn't move the ball which is ridiculous. the argument basically was 'Give Andy Dalton a clean pocket and a stud WR to play opposite his ridiculously amazing WR in AJ Green and he'll friggin pick you apart' What NFL QB wouldn't? The fact of the matter is that every team has holes on the Oline. Every team would like to have more playmakers at the skill positions. The Bengals are one of the few teams that has a wealth of playmakers on offense coupled with a good Oline.

We averaged 24 points a game last year, and Sanu was hurt, we didn't have Eifert, we didn't have Bernard, Whitworth was hurt and playing terrible. The center was also an issue, and admit it, it was. Our center situation was a train wreck.

We still averaged 24 points a game.

So far, we are only averaging 20.5 points a game, but considering the lousy field position we have had this year, we are not doing too shabby so far. We had to have two 90+ yard drives in Chicago, and an 80+ yard drive I think too in order to get our 21 points. We had lousy field position for the most part against Pittsburgh, and they have a stellar defense still. It is pretty obvious, their defense has not suffered much. The offense on the other hand, not so much. Dalton still moved the ball, and was able to put points on the board. All QB's are game managers, that is what they are paid to do, some just have better stats than others, and some of that depends on talent of course, and some on personnel, and some on offensive schemes.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Against a tough Steelers defense on Monday night, Dalton struggled early with nerves as he was pumped a little, he admitted, but in the second half when the adjustments had been made, he settled down, he had a QB rating of 122.3 against one of the better defenses in the NFL.

Not sure why everyone hates on Dalton so much, but I guess it is what it is. "HE CAN"T MAKE INTERMEDIATE PASSES ON A REGULAR BASIS!!" But fortunately, he does make intermediate passes on a regular basis. I just do not know what everyone is watching.

Was the first part of his game on Monday kinda crappy? Sure it was. Did he settle down and have a good solid game afterwards? Sure did. Is he capable of 7 TD passes in a game like Manning? Nope. But he will be a good general for this offense and lead us to scores.

I think we will average OVER 24 points a game this year.

 

[Cincyfan78]

This whole argument can be summed up rather easily.

The Bengals love Dalton. Regardless of what anyone thinks on this board, he is NOT going anywhere. Even if the Bengals fail to go to the playoffs this year, he's not going anywhere. The ONLY way they would consider looking at another QB is if he regresses from his previous years' stats, and honestly, I don't see that happening.

So, whether or not he's got the arm strength, or deep % or whatever anyone wants to argue about, it's all a moot point because the Bengals organization love him, and are building behind him. Let's move on because this can be an argument that lasts all season with no resolve.