Ongoing NHL thread - Part deux

[evolver115]

Derek Stepan might be a very good #2, but there's no shot he's a 3. You're really reaching now.

It is a reach. I'll admit that. Gorton is paying him for what he thinks he will be worth in the future. It will be a lot of fun seeing if he was right. Stepan is now the second highest paid player on that team, sans the goalie. Will he live up to it?

 

[forty_three]

Anybody need a pylon? Zubrus likely to be bought out.

If you have to pay the cap hit for this year anyway, and only this year, why buy him out? If nothing else, it's a warm body that you can use in practice for Stevens to teach the kids how to hip check.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

If you have to pay the cap hit for this year anyway, and only this year, why buy him out? If nothing else, it's a warm body that you can use in practice for Stevens to teach the kids how to hip check.

Because Ray Shero's in charge now, and logic is no longer living here.

First round draft picks for everyone!

 

[Nasty_Magician]

If you have to pay the cap hit for this year anyway, and only this year, why buy him out? If nothing else, it's a warm body that you can use in practice for Stevens to teach the kids how to hip check.

Stevens is gone and I guess management/coaches decided he's taking up a roster spot. We have plenty of younger guys that can fill the role that Zubrus would be playing for us. Who knows, maybe they talked to Zubrus and said are you ok being a healthy scratch/injury replacement and he said he'd prefer to take his chances elsewhere? I mean they have plenty of cap space so the hit doesn't really matter.

I'm not sure if he has anything left in the tank at this point so he probably doesn't have many options (unless he plans on heading to Europe).

 

[DragonfromTO]

If you have to pay the cap hit for this year anyway, and only this year, why buy him out? If nothing else, it's a warm body that you can use in practice for Stevens to teach the kids how to hip check.

No reason to waste a roster spot. The money is a sunk cost and shouldn't factor into the decision. It's also probably a matter of common courtesy, letting the guy try to catch on somewhere else.

 

[jstewismybastardson]

No reason to waste a roster spot. The money is a sunk cost and shouldn't factor into the decision. It's also probably a matter of common courtesy, letting the guy try to catch on as a white employee at Tim Hortons

fify


/if you were talkin bout David Clarkson

 

[DragonfromTO]

There aren't many. If I had to make a comparison to a 3rd line center that Stepan reminds me of, but is now on the back nine of his career, I think I'd go with Brooks Laich. If you look at Laich's career arc in just scoring, they are actually very comparable. Laich's AAV is $4.5. That is almost exactly what I think a guy like Stepan is worth. Derek lucked out. He was in the right place at the right time. Good for him. Doesn't mean I can't say the guy is being overpaid, though.

One man's 3rd liner is another man's street-wise Hercules I guess

Workbook: Forwards

 

[dash]

I think Stepan is more a white knight upon a fiery steed

 

[evolver115]

One man's 3rd liner is another man's street-wise Hercules I guess

Workbook: Forwards

While I am a proponent of advanced stats, the scoring numbers are what I'm most interested in seeing from a 1st line center. Advanced stats do tell you a whole lot about what a player is doing when he's away from the puck, or on a shift with a different linemate, or is he driving possession. But I think you should expect your number one center to heavily factor in when it comes to scoring. I'm not sure Stepan will ever do that enough.

 

[dash]

By the way, speaking of Bonnie Tyler, I've uncovered some raw footage of Phil Kessel working out.

 

[evolver115]

New Miracle on Ice': $6 million for memorabilia | New York Post

 

[dash]

New Miracle on Ice': $6 million for memorabilia | New York Post

Wouldn't it be something if someone or some organization purchased the entire lot and then donated it to the US Hockey Hall of Fame for permanent viewing for all hockey fans (while taking a taxable deduction).

/I know it won't happen, but it sure would be great.

 

[evolver115]

Wouldn't it be something if someone or some organization purchased the entire lot and then donated it to the US Hockey Hall of Fame for permanent viewing for all hockey fans (while taking a taxable deduction).

/I know it won't happen, but it sure would be great.

That is an excellent idea! But you're right. Ain't gonna happen. Greed rules all.

 

[DragonfromTO]

While I am a proponent of advanced stats, the scoring numbers are what I'm most interested in seeing from a 1st line center. Advanced stats do tell you a whole lot about what a player is doing when he's away from the puck, or on a shift with a different linemate, or is he driving possession. But I think you should expect your number one center to heavily factor in when it comes to scoring. I'm not sure Stepan will ever do that enough.

Um, did you look at that chart and understand it? Because most of it is dealing with "scoring numbers".

 

[evolver115]

Um, did you look at that chart and understand it? Because most of it is dealing with "scoring numbers".

Don't be condescending. If I want that I can talk to my brother.

Yeah, I read the chart. He had a nice season last year, and also in the lockout shortened season, but the next time he cracks 60 points on the season, it'll also be his first time.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Don't be condescending. If I want that I can talk to my brother.

Yeah, I read the chart. He had a nice season last year, and also in the lockout shortened season, but the next time he cracks 60 points on the season, it'll also be his first time.

I apologize for being snarky. But like I suggested, most of the chart wasn't dealing with "advanced stats" at all, unless goals and points per 60 minutes is somehow "advanced".

So let's just talk about the "individual production" section of it if that's better.

He scores like a 2nd liner, (first) assists like a 1st liner, and "primary points" (goals + first assists) like a 1st liner. As I already stated, he was 10th in the league last year at 5 on 5 among centres in total points per 60.

I also show him 17th over the past 3 seasons among centres in raw total points. And the list of guys ahead of him is a very strong list, not 2nd and 3rd line players. The only teams with two centres ahead of him are Pittsburgh (duh) and San Jose (also duh). Half of the teams in the league don't have a centre ahead of him.

 

[evolver115]

I apologize for being snarky. But like I suggested, most of the chart wasn't dealing with "advanced stats" at all, unless goals and points per 60 minutes is somehow "advanced".

So let's just talk about the "individual production" section of it if that's better.

He scores like a 2nd liner, (first) assists like a 1st liner, and "primary points" (goals + first assists) like a 1st liner. As I already stated, he was 10th in the league last year at 5 on 5 among centres in total points per 60.

I also show him 17th over the past 3 seasons among centres in raw total points. And the list of guys ahead of him is a very strong list, not 2nd and 3rd line players. The only teams with two centres ahead of him are Pittsburgh (duh) and San Jose (also duh). Half of the teams in the league don't have a centre ahead of him.

He scores like a second liner. That is what I have been talking about with him in this thread. He was tenth in the league last year at 5v5 in points per sixty, but that number of his from last season is also based on a 68 game average. Not 82. Maybe that total of being tenth in the league at center comes down from that if he plays 82. There is also the possibility that maybe it would go up, as well. I just don't see it, though. Stepan doesn't have a goal scoring touch. And those numbers are evident by his lack of that touch throughout his career. His assist totals of late also benefit from having one of the best goal-scoring players in the east sometimes on his wing.

Even him being 17th over the past three seasons, it's still based on a flawed sample size because it is using an average from a 48 game season, and a 68 season. For me, if I'm investing the second richest contract among skating positions on my theoretical team, I want to see previous campaigns of a guy doing the heavy lifting. He just hasn't done that, yet. His most recent full season of the three when he played at least 79 games, he registered 57 points. That is about where I think he really is. About a 60 points a season player. That new GM calling the shots in Sather's place made Stepan his biggest bet yet on their future. IMHO, I think it was an awfully risky one.

 

[DragonfromTO]

He scores like a second liner. That is what I have been talking about with him in this thread.

He scores goals like a 2nd liner. He scores points like a 1st liner.

He was tenth in the league last year at 5v5 in points per sixty, but that number of his from last season is also based on a 68 game average. Not 82. Maybe that total of being tenth in the league at center comes down from that if he plays 82. There is also the possibility that maybe it would go up, as well. I just don't see it, though.

It's 68 games, it's not a random 10 game sample. Even if he scores points in those extra 14 games at half his rate in the first 68 it still only drops him to 24th.

Stepan doesn't have a goal scoring touch. And those numbers are evident by his lack of that touch throughout his career. His assist totals of late also benefit from having one of the best goal-scoring players in the east sometimes on his wing.

He played almost exclusively with Kreider and St. Louis at even strength last season. He played only 140 minutes total with Nash, and during that time he had only 5 assists, which isn't significantly higher than his rate without him.

Even him being 17th over the past three seasons, it's still based on a flawed sample size because it is using an average from a 48 game season, and a 68 season.

He is 17th over the last 3 seasons in raw total points. Not an average. So only playing 68 games last season doesn't help him, it hurts him. The 48 game season maybe makes the sample less perfect than three full 82 game seasons would, but it's still 212 league games worth of data we're talking about here.

For me, if I'm investing the second richest contract among skating positions on my theoretical team, I want to see previous campaigns of a guy doing the heavy lifting. He just hasn't done that, yet. His most recent full season of the three when he played at least 79 games, he registered 57 points. That is about where I think he really is. About a 60 points a season player per season. That new GM calling the shots in Sather's place made Stepan his biggest bet yet on their future. IMHO, I think it was an awfully risky one.

In the past 3 seasons he's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the Rangers in scoring. Right in line with that salary ranking he's got now.

 

[forty_three]

New Miracle on Ice': $6 million for memorabilia | New York Post

 

[evolver115]

He scores goals like a 2nd liner. He scores points like a 1st liner.It's 68 games, it's not a random 10 game sample. Even if he scores points in those extra 14 games at half his rate in the first 68 it still only drops him to 24th.

So he goes from being inside the top 10 at 68 games to outside at 24th if he scores at even half his rate in the remaining 14, and that's still a positive? That's why it's flawed logic to use an average to base a statistical comparison to others who have a larger sample size. Stepan is now the highest paid center based on AAV under the age of 26 not named Steven Stamkos. He's never scored more than 21 goals in a season(his rookie yr.), and has yet to score even 60 points in a 82 game schedule, but is now one of the highest earning young centers in hockey.

He played almost exclusively with Kreider and St. Louis at even strength last season. He played only 140 minutes total with Nash, and during that time he had only 5 assists, which isn't significantly higher than his rate without him.

Stepan may not have been a regular center to Nash, last season, but I seem to remember him getting time with Nash in the two previous seasons. And if he isn't skating with Nash as often now, that also would mean he's not facing the opponent's top pairing defensemen as often, which translates to he's going up against second tier competition. That could possibly mean he's seeing an inflation in numbers compared to quality of competition. Which may explain how last season he averaged .81 pts per game, when his career average over five seasons and 360 games is .70.

He is 17th over the last 3 seasons in raw total points. Not an average. So only playing 68 games last season doesn't help him, it hurts him. The 48 game season maybe makes the sample less perfect than three full 82 game seasons would, but it's still 212 league games worth of data we're talking about here. In the past 3 seasons he's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd on the Rangers in scoring. Right in line with that salary ranking he's got now.

Finishing where he did among the Rangers in scoring over the past three seasons may look good compared to his teammates, but the Rangers are also a team predicated on defense and goal-tending. Outside of Nash, there isn't a prolific scoring winger or center. In all three of those seasons, his numbers are somewhat inferior to where his AAV now aligns him with his contemporaries at the center position(Kopitar, O'Reilly, Backstrom, Couture).

In my opinion, I think Stepan lucked out when his agent was prepared to go arbitration with an ask of $7.2. That certainly is due to his quality of play over the past three seasons, and he definitely earned that. However, I still believe that the contract Gorton and the Rangers ultimately gave him, instead of proceeding through arbitration, overpaid him for what he really is, and that's a second line center. I also think his performance in the post-season these past two years also contributed to the overpayment. He put up some quality numbers, but that is a slippery slope when you start paying guys for what they've done in the past post-seasons because then you're shading into the "clutch" factor, and I think that is about 90% bunk. Case in point; look at Sid. He has three goals in his last 17 post-season games. Prior to that, he had 10 in his last 20.

You can't pay a guy for what he's done. You have to pay him on what you think he's going to do. Apparently, Gorton sees Stepan as a perrenial 65-75 a season guy. I don't share that optimism.