Ongoing NHL thread - Part deux

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Agree to disagree, because I seriously doubt Stepan will even come close to living up to that contract. I think Stepan benefited due to time and place, rather than his actual ability determining what he's worth. He's not useless, and that isn't what I'm saying about him, at all. I just don't put him on the same plateau as guys like Backstrom, Kopitar, O'Reilly, Duchene, Pavelski and Couture, even though he counts about the same as them on AAV.

I mean, that's fine but at least production-wise he's in or close to the same boat as Duchene and Couture, and Kopitar will be making $10 mil+ this time next year. You can even make the case that Duchene has had one good season surrounded by average to slightly-above-average years. Couture's and Stepan's seasons were very similar - same PPG and same shooting percentage.

 

[Cobiemonster]

Pretty much.

I see the Rags and Lightning are the surest bets to top the conference. I could see Montreal taking a small step back. Pittsburgh SHOULD be better than last year but I think there's something rotten there.

Buffalo will be better but I think they're still a bit away from really competing for the playoffs. Toronto will likely be similar to last year, IMO.

I don't think Boston will be very good. They could actually be awful. Detroit will probably be similar to last year. Could improve or decline slightly but they'll at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

So Florida has to beat all but two out of: Tampa, MTL, Detroit, Ottawa and Boston. Not going to be easy. If they don't they have to go through the "others" in the Metro. I see NYR, Pit and Was/NYI as the best bets to get divisional spots. That leaves Wash/NYI, Columbus, Philly and the rejects of the Atlantic to beat out.

It's going to be really tight. I DO like FLA's young talent though.

I was thinking Ottawa could take a step back considering how great of a run they made - it'll be interesting to see if they sustain it for a whole season and they learn to play like that for 82 games - it's not easy to do

Washington SHOULD be better with the acquisitions they made but I get the sense they might be in the same position they were in this past season - Rangers will be good and Tampa will be fantastic and maybe I'm cynical but I think the Isles might take a step back - I don't know why I think that but I'm just not that impressed with their defense even if Travis Hamonic and others are healthy - maybe I'll be wrong on that but we'll wait and see - Columbus will be a lot to handle offensively but their defense is still meh and that's why I'm holding off on them - the Flyers will be better but I don't think it's good enough for the playoffs - defense is in transition and that probably means another year to sort things out

I think Florida can beat out Ottawa - they play them pretty well

 

[evolver115]

I mean, that's fine but at least production-wise he's in or close to the same boat as Duchene and Couture, and Kopitar will be making $10 mil+ this time next year. You can even make the case that Duchene has had one good season surrounded by average to slightly-above-average years. Couture's and Stepan's seasons were very similar - same PPG and same shooting percentage.

I'll say this; if I'm choosing between Stepan, Duchene and Couture to center my top line ... I'm taking Couture, Duchene and Stepan. In that order.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

That's fair, but I think you have to take into account too that if the other teams are getting better, the Panthers will too and the Panthers were better than what, two or three of those teams at least? Another year of Aaron Ekblad improving along with their young forward group and a veteran like Jaromir Jagr along the way, I think the Panthers will continue to get better - I think their defense won't be so bad, there's a chance Michael Matheson will make the team and he's got loads of potential - remember, Drew Doughty missed the playoffs in his first year with the Kings and then they got better the year after and made the playoffs as a 5th seed if I'm not mistaken and he got even better as a player - I think you could see the same thing with the Panthers - the trajectory seems similar imo

The last month or so of the season they were rolling on all cylinders offensively - when Jaromir Jagr came over it made a difference and a full season with him on the roster will really help - and I think Reilly Smith gives them more overall talent then Jimmy Hayes(I liked him without a doubt but he was inconsisent) and on a team like the Panthers, Reilly Smith might be able to produce more because he's not on a more defensive team like he was in Boston

In the offseason, we always think certain teams are going to be really good or much better but sometimes it doesn't work out that way - that's why I don't always like to make predictions because a lot of teams look dang good on paper but then injuries start happening and other bizarre circumstances take place and it changes the whole landscape

In their last 15 games they played 8 games vs. playoff-bound teams and 7 vs. non-playoff bound teams and went 8-6-1. That isn't good enough.

And of course we're all just bullshitting here because once the season starts Dany Heatley could sign on with the Hurricanes and score 50 and Cam Ward and Eric Staal turn back the clock and kill it and win the Cup and Semin wins the Hart with MTL and Toronto gives 2 first rounders to Pittsburgh to get Kessel back. Just fun to talk about because there ain't much else to do.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I'll say this; if I'm choosing between Stepan, Duchene and Couture to center my top line ... I'm taking Couture, Duchene and Stepan. In that order.

I would as well, but the difference in quality between those 3 in particular isn't as vast as it may seem.

 

[Cobiemonster]

In their last 15 games they played 8 games vs. playoff-bound teams and 7 vs. non-playoff bound teams and went 8-6-1. That isn't good enough.

And of course we're all just bullshitting here because once the season starts Dany Heatley could sign on with the Hurricanes and score 50 and Cam Ward and Eric Staal turn back the clock and kill it and win the Cup and Semin wins the Hart with MTL and Toronto gives 2 first rounders to Pittsburgh to get Kessel back. Just fun to talk about because there ain't much else to do.

That might not have been good enough, but I can point to a stretch they had in mid-January where they lost home games to Colorado, Edmonton and Vancouver and that was after they had a really good Western Canadian trip - that's the type of thing that cost them a playoff spot, not beating the teams they should have beaten

And you have to take into account that the last three games of the season were meaningless as far as making the playoffs and Nick Bjugstad also missed the last two weeks or so of the season because his back was so bad that he couldn't play well enough - a lot of players aren't 100% late in the season but if he was remotely healthy maybe they would have won one or two of those games - but at least the team has a great future, I love what they have going on and that was a good experience for them that they will learn from

Also: Vinny Lecavalier could score 40 goals again, be a point a game player and resurrect his career - but "just fun to talk about because there ain't much else to do"

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Also: Vinny Lecavalier could score 40 goals again, be a point a game player and resurrect his career - but "just fun to talk about because there ain't much else to do"

Philly will trade Vinny and their first round pick to Toronto in June and the Leafs will buy him out.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I would as well, but the difference in quality between those 3 in particular isn't as vast as it may seem.

It really isn't that vast as far as point production, but I do think as you mentioned, Logan Couture is the one I would take - he's more dynamic and I think that makes a difference

 

[Cobiemonster]

Philly will trade Vinny and their first round pick to Toronto in June and the Leafs will buy him out.

Only way that happens is if the Flyers make the playoffs - otherwise, with the lottery format, there's not a chance in hell any lottery team would do that - I think the Flyers would probably rather buy him out at that point than to give up a good pick just to let another team take on the mess - it would only be two more years left on Vinny's contract too so the Flyers could probably handle it better at that point

 

[evolver115]

I would as well, but the difference in quality between those 3 in particular isn't as vast as it may seem.

The difference in quality may not be as vast as the Pacific is wide, but it's also not as narrow as a creek, either. Stepan hasn't cracked the 20 goal mark since his rookie season, and I've gotta be honest .. I don't know if he ever will. Yet, I can easily see a guy like Duchene and Couture putting up 25+ as soon as next season. Stepan has also never eclipsed the 60 point mark in a season, yet (even though his pace last season would've technically passed it, if not for injury). I also wouldn't be surprised to never see him do that in his career. It's just an awful lot of money to give to a guy who seems more likely to not pass those thresholds, than to eclipse them.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

The difference in quality may not be as vast as the Pacific is wide, but it's also not as narrow as a creek, either. Stepan hasn't cracked the 20 goal mark since his rookie season, and I've gotta be honest .. I don't know if he ever will. Yet, I can easily see a guy like Duchene and Couture putting up 25+ as soon as next season. Stepan has also never eclipsed the 60 point mark in a season, yet (even though his pace last season would've technically passed it, if not for injury). I also wouldn't be surprised to never see him do that in his career. It's just an awful lot of money to give to a guy who seems more likely to not pass those thresholds, than to eclipse them.

Will it make you feel better to know that Duchene and Couture would probably fetch $7 or $8 mil on the open market today?

Stepan signed his contract today, and today's value doesn't make his deal seem excessive. I mean, keep in mind what Spezza's making in Dallas or Ryan in Ottawa.

 

[Cobiemonster]

The difference in quality may not be as vast as the Pacific is wide, but it's also not as narrow as a creek, either. Stepan hasn't cracked the 20 goal mark since his rookie season, and I've gotta be honest .. I don't know if he ever will. Yet, I can easily see a guy like Duchene and Couture putting up 25+ as soon as next season. Stepan has also never eclipsed the 60 point mark in a season, yet (even though his pace last season would've technically passed it, if not for injury). I also wouldn't be surprised to never see him do that in his career. It's just an awful lot of money to give to a guy who seems more likely to not pass those thresholds, than to eclipse them.

You also have to take into account, who are you going to replace him with if you don't re-sign him? Maybe he's not worth that money but that's why teams have to pay because the alternative isn't always as good - if the Rangers knew they could get someone better to make the next step and that player was there for their taking, then they would swap but it isn't that easy to just let someone go or trade them if you don't have the replacement

I think the big issue for the Rangers is that a lot of money is tied up on defense and that's why there were rumors of Dan Girardi being shipped out at one point or another - don't get me wrong, their defense is terrific at stopping other teams but the Marc Staal contract was high when you consider he doesn't bring very much offense to the table - the Rangers haven't drafted well and they trade their picks too often and that is what will keep them from getting over the hump, not because they signed Derek Stepan for $6.5 million a year - they need to find a young, dependable d-man on an ELC whether that's by drafting one or trading for one so that they can move a guy like Dan Girardi

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Only way that happens is if the Flyers make the playoffs - otherwise, with the lottery format, there's not a chance in hell any lottery team would do that - I think the Flyers would probably rather buy him out at that point than to give up a good pick just to let another team take on the mess - it would only be two more years left on Vinny's contract too so the Flyers could probably handle it better at that point

Keep in mind that the lottery takes place during the first round of the playoffs and offseason trades don't usually happen until June.

 

[Cobiemonster]

Keep in mind that the lottery takes place during the first round of the playoffs and offseason trades don't usually happen until June.

It would give them time to figure out a solution so there's plenty of time for trades, but I just don't see Hexy as someone who would give up a pick, especially a good one just to let someone else buy out a contract

 

[KennyBanyeah]

I was thinking Ottawa could take a step back considering how great of a run they made - it'll be interesting to see if they sustain it for a whole season and they learn to play like that for 82 games - it's not easy to do

Washington SHOULD be better with the acquisitions they made but I get the sense they might be in the same position they were in this past season - Rangers will be good and Tampa will be fantastic and maybe I'm cynical but I think the Isles might take a step back - I don't know why I think that but I'm just not that impressed with their defense even if Travis Hamonic and others are healthy - maybe I'll be wrong on that but we'll wait and see - Columbus will be a lot to handle offensively but their defense is still meh and that's why I'm holding off on them - the Flyers will be better but I don't think it's good enough for the playoffs - defense is in transition and that probably means another year to sort things out

I think Florida can beat out Ottawa - they play them pretty well

Well if Ottawa sustains their run for a whole season they'll not only make the playoffs but they'll set the league record for points. I don't think anyone thinks they can sustain that pace.

I think what a lot people see is basically the youngest (maybe second youngest) in the league last year that played possibly the best hockey in the league down the stretch.

I think the Sens will get better by having the same coach all year; they had tuned out P-Mac. Mostly I think they'll get better because their young guys should improve. Zibanejad, Stone, Hoffman, Pageau, Wiercioch, Lazar and Ceci could, and should, all improve significantly. I think they're a better team last year by ditching Gryba and promoting Wideman as well.

The problem with them making the playoffs is that several other Eastern teams appear to be improving as well, including the Panthers. Should be a fun season in the east.

 

[evolver115]

Will it make you feel better to know that Duchene and Couture would probably fetch $7 or $8 mil on the open market today?

Stepan signed his contract today, and today's value doesn't make his deal seem excessive. I mean, keep in mind what Spezza's making in Dallas or Ryan in Ottawa.

Make me feel better? BB, I'm elated that they signed him to this contract. And I definitely agree that Couture and Duchene would fetch north of 7 million in UFA. Stepan will never fulfill what his new AAV is costing the Rangers. They shot themselves in the foot, and will be stuck with the wound until he either completes the contract, or he is traded.

 

[dash]

They shot themselves in the foot, and will be stuck with the wound until he either completes the contract, or he is traded.

Not only that, they have a couple of dead guys guarding the munitions dump.

 

[dash]

TSN's look at the Pacific Division today:

"Key acquisitions by the Flames: Hamilton, Frolik"
"Key acquisitions by the Oilers: McDavid, Sekera"
"Key acquisitions by the Canucks: Prust, Bartkowski."

/Why is the Sesame Street song "One of these things is not like the other" running through my head

 

[dash]

Penguins Agree to Terms with Forward Eric Fehr to a Three-Year Contract - Pittsburgh Penguins - News

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Penguins Agree to Terms with Forward Eric Fehr to a Three-Year Contract - Pittsburgh Penguins - News

This looks like a pretty decent deal for the Pens. FOr that price he fits right in as a 3rd-4th liner who can kill penalties.

Fucking Penguins look to be making some decent moves this summer.

Too bad that Kessel will eat a hole through that dressing room.