Ongoing NHL thread - Part deux

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Stepan averaged 65 pts/82 games this season. He's NYR's only option for 1st line centre and that is some good leverage right there. With a 6 year deal they're buying at least one UFA year (I'm guessing more). It seems inflated but it's probably pretty close to market rate.

The Rangers did buy 4 years of UFA with this contract, so upon further review, it's not as bad as it first sounds.

 

[evolver115]

The Rangers did buy 4 years of UFA with this contract, so upon further review, it's not as bad as it first sounds.

Stepan's cap hit comparables:

Kopitar @ $6.8
Backstrom @ $6.7
Stepan @ $6.5
Staal @ $6.0
O'Reilly @ $6.0
Pavelski @ $6.0
Duchene @ $6.0
Couture @ $6.0

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

At least $1.5 shmill too high. I'd say $2 million too high. $6.5 AAV for a guy who hasn't even eclipsed 60 points in a 82 game schedule? Again ...

Stepan's cap hit comparables:

Kopitar @ $6.8
Backstrom @ $6.7
Stepan @ $6.5
Staal @ $6.0
O'Reilly @ $6.0
Pavelski @ $6.0
Duchene @ $6.0
Couture @ $6.0

Keeping in mind that Backstrom signed his deal in 2010 and would probably do anything to go back and un-do it because he could get $3 mil more per season today, and that Kopitar signed his in 2009 he was making more than the Sedins, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Briere, Elias, Getzlaf, Perry etc.

Comparing deals is never a good indicator of anything because each deal is signed to address a different set of circumstances. Some of the guys you listed are overpaid, some are underpaid.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Have the Rags gone crazy?? I mean that's Wade Redden type money. NO!!Wait. That's Chris Drury type money. I mean this is almost Scott Gomez type money. At least the Rags didn't go full Bobby Holik on this one. Seems like they've learned their lessons.

 

[evolver115]

Keeping in mind that Backstrom signed his deal in 2010 and would probably do anything to go back and un-do it because he could get $3 mil more per season today, and that Kopitar signed his in 2009 he was making more than the Sedins, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Briere, Elias, Getzlaf, Perry etc.

Comparing deals is never a good indicator of anything because each deal is signed to address a different set of circumstances. Some of the guys you listed are overpaid, some are underpaid.

Just throwing your ?

Thanks for the input

I stand by my original post. Stepan is overpaid by at least 1.5 million per. If not more. No sweat off my back, though. He's in the Metro division, and the Rags will be stuck with this albatross for years to come.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Just throwing your ?

Thanks for the input

Just pointing out that comparing contracts that were signed 6 years and $15 million salary cap dollars apart doesn't make much sense. I can point out that John Tavares is a better player than everybody you named yet makes less than the whole lot of them and without context it seems crazy.

 

[Cobiemonster]

NBC releases 2015-16 NHL schedule | ProHockeyTalk

 

[tducey]

That Stepan deal is way to much for him.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

NBC releases 2015-16 NHL schedule | ProHockeyTalk

Number of Pens games out of 105 - 18
Number of Flyers games - 18
Number of Red Wings games - 16
Number of playoff series wins by those three teams the past two seasons - 1

 

[evolver115]

Just pointing out that comparing contracts that were signed 6 years and $15 million salary cap dollars apart doesn't make much sense. I can point out that John Tavares is a better player than everybody you named yet makes less than the whole lot of them and without context it seems crazy.

While I agree that comparing contracts that are signed years apart and after a new CBA makes it very hard to get concrete comparables ... yet those players that I listed are Stepan's closest AAV contracts that play the same position. I'm sure both the Rags and Stepan's agent used those numbers to try and negotiate where his new deal would end up. And I'm sure Step's agent probably used the same logic that you employed when discussing it, here.

I think you would agree, though, that the contract Stepan received is easily more than he's actually worth judging by his scoring numbers since he's been in the game. When you look at his contract beside that of some of his current contemporaries, that conclusion is pretty spot on. Stepan was lucky to get to his RFA year when the Rangers don't have another logical option. Stepan and his agent more or less had the Rags over a barrel, and his agent took that for all it was worth.

 

[dare2be]

I can't stand the NBC announcers anyway...I'd rather all the Pens games be on Root Sports where we can hear....oh, fuck, never mind.

 

[esls79]

I can't stand the NBC announcers anyway...I'd rather all the Pens games be on Root Sports where we can hear....oh, fuck, never mind.

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[Cobiemonster]

I agree that the Panthers will be a playoff team, but I'm thinking it will be more than 95 points

 

[dash]

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[Bloody Brian Burke]

I agree that the Panthers will be a playoff team, but I'm thinking it will be more than 95 points

I am not a fan of their defence or their Bolland.

While I think Florida can do better than they did last season, I also think teams like Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philly, Buffalo and Ottawa will also be better. Florida went 10-6-2 against those teams last season but it'll be much more difficult keeping the puck out of the net with guys like Saad, Kessel, O'Reilly and Kane shooting on Roberto. It may take 100 points to make the playoffs in the east this year and I'm not convinced Florida is a 100 pt team.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

While I agree that comparing contracts that are signed years apart and after a new CBA makes it very hard to get concrete comparables ... yet those players that I listed are Stepan's closest AAV contracts that play the same position. I'm sure both the Rags and Stepan's agent used those numbers to try and negotiate where his new deal would end up. And I'm sure Step's agent probably used the same logic that you employed when discussing it, here.

I think you would agree, though, that the contract Stepan received is easily more than he's actually worth judging by his scoring numbers since he's been in the game. When you look at his contract beside that of some of his current contemporaries, that conclusion is pretty spot on. Stepan was lucky to get to his RFA year when the Rangers don't have another logical option. Stepan and his agent more or less had the Rags over a barrel, and his agent took that for all it was worth.

If I were the Rangers, I would've included Stepan in a package for O'Reilly.

Having said that, I think he's decent enough for a $6 million player. Throw in the Rangers' lack of depth at C and the fact they're buying 5 of his UFA years $6.5m is about right.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

I am not a fan of their defence or their Bolland.

While I think Florida can do better than they did last season, I also think teams like Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philly, Buffalo and Ottawa will also be better. Florida went 10-6-2 against those teams last season but it'll be much more difficult keeping the puck out of the net with guys like Saad, Kessel, O'Reilly and Kane shooting on Roberto. It may take 100 points to make the playoffs in the east this year and I'm not convinced Florida is a 100 pt team.

Pretty much.

I see the Rags and Lightning are the surest bets to top the conference. I could see Montreal taking a small step back. Pittsburgh SHOULD be better than last year but I think there's something rotten there.

Buffalo will be better but I think they're still a bit away from really competing for the playoffs. Toronto will likely be similar to last year, IMO.

I don't think Boston will be very good. They could actually be awful. Detroit will probably be similar to last year. Could improve or decline slightly but they'll at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

So Florida has to beat all but two out of: Tampa, MTL, Detroit, Ottawa and Boston. Not going to be easy. If they don't they have to go through the "others" in the Metro. I see NYR, Pit and Was/NYI as the best bets to get divisional spots. That leaves Wash/NYI, Columbus, Philly and the rejects of the Atlantic to beat out.

It's going to be really tight. I DO like FLA's young talent though.

 

[evolver115]

If I were the Rangers, I would've included Stepan in a package for O'Reilly.

Having said that, I think he's decent enough for a $6 million player. Throw in the Rangers' lack of depth at C and the fact they're buying 5 of his UFA years $6.5m is about right.

Agree to disagree, because I seriously doubt Stepan will even come close to living up to that contract. I think Stepan benefited due to time and place, rather than his actual ability determining what he's worth. He's not useless, and that isn't what I'm saying about him, at all. I just don't put him on the same plateau as guys like Backstrom, Kopitar, O'Reilly, Duchene, Pavelski and Couture, even though he counts about the same as them on AAV.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Pretty much.

I see the Rags and Lightning are the surest bets to top the conference. I could see Montreal taking a small step back. Pittsburgh SHOULD be better than last year but I think there's something rotten there.

Buffalo will be better but I think they're still a bit away from really competing for the playoffs. Toronto will likely be similar to last year, IMO.

I don't think Boston will be very good. They could actually be awful. Detroit will probably be similar to last year. Could improve or decline slightly but they'll at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

So Florida has to beat all but two out of: Tampa, MTL, Detroit, Ottawa and Boston. Not going to be easy. If they don't they have to go through the "others" in the Metro. I see NYR, Pit and Was/NYI as the best bets to get divisional spots. That leaves Wash/NYI, Columbus, Philly and the rejects of the Atlantic to beat out.

It's going to be really tight. I DO like FLA's young talent though.

I do as well. I think Barkov and Huberdeau both break 60 pts this season, Bjugstad should be pushing 30 goals, and maybe with better offensive talent around him Reilly Smith can get back to 20 goals. Also, Jagr's gonna Jagr.

But that's a mighty crowd to jump over. I think Detroit will either be stagnant or they will play Mrazek from day 1 and win games that Howard lost for them last term. I think Therrien will get the boot by Feb and MTL will go on a tear afterward. Boston could be like Jersey last season - great goaltending keeps them swinging above their weight class. Leafs should be cellar dwellers but there is still enough talent on the roster to maybe wind up in 11th or 12th instead.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I am not a fan of their defence or their Bolland.

While I think Florida can do better than they did last season, I also think teams like Columbus, Pittsburgh, Philly, Buffalo and Ottawa will also be better. Florida went 10-6-2 against those teams last season but it'll be much more difficult keeping the puck out of the net with guys like Saad, Kessel, O'Reilly and Kane shooting on Roberto. It may take 100 points to make the playoffs in the east this year and I'm not convinced Florida is a 100 pt team.

That's fair, but I think you have to take into account too that if the other teams are getting better, the Panthers will too and the Panthers were better than what, two or three of those teams at least? Another year of Aaron Ekblad improving along with their young forward group and a veteran like Jaromir Jagr along the way, I think the Panthers will continue to get better - I think their defense won't be so bad, there's a chance Michael Matheson will make the team and he's got loads of potential - remember, Drew Doughty missed the playoffs in his first year with the Kings and then they got better the year after and made the playoffs as a 5th seed if I'm not mistaken and he got even better as a player - I think you could see the same thing with the Panthers - the trajectory seems similar imo

The last month or so of the season they were rolling on all cylinders offensively - when Jaromir Jagr came over it made a difference and a full season with him on the roster will really help - and I think Reilly Smith gives them more overall talent then Jimmy Hayes(I liked him without a doubt but he was inconsisent) and on a team like the Panthers, Reilly Smith might be able to produce more because he's not on a more defensive team like he was in Boston

In the offseason, we always think certain teams are going to be really good or much better but sometimes it doesn't work out that way - that's why I don't always like to make predictions because a lot of teams look dang good on paper but then injuries start happening and other bizarre circumstances take place and it changes the whole landscape