Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[seahawksfan234]

I think Vogelbach will hit.

Agreed though, it's not a great system.

Hasn't really hit much so far. Very small sample size, but is only hitting .175 in 44 MLB PAs with only one extra base hit.

 

[wazzu31]

I think Vogelbach will hit.

Agreed though, it's not a great system.

No, Vogelbach cannot and will not hit at the MLB level unless he changes his entire approach. His approach and body type are like oil and water or name your polar opposite analogy.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I think Vogelbach will hit.

Agreed though, it's not a great system.

It seems like Dipoto has moved on from him. He has had chances to get a look up here but hasn't gotten a real shot. Valencia was struggling for a long period last year, they traded for Alonso and now they traded for Healey and have Ford. Multiple chances to give him a chance and he hasn't gotten it. Leads me to believe Dipoto hasn't been impressed with what he has seen

 

[unlvmariners]

John Sickels just released his top 20 Mariners prospects for 2018.

Seattle Mariners Top 20 prospects for 2018

basically an incredibly shitty farm system. I actually really like the article you posted I think the writer did a good job of analyzing and grading players.

Out of the Mariners minor league dumpster there is only a handful of guys I think could make an impact on the major league roster within 2-3 seasons:

-Evan White is my favorite I think he has the most potential to be a success in the majors. However we need to see him on the field regularly to get a better idea of what he has. 2020 until he is a factor.
-Braden Bishop I have at 2 because I think he is the closest to the majors. I kinda get a Peter Bourjos comparison with maybe a little more avg and potential upside.
-Sam Carlson and Kyle Lewis are tied at 3 for me. Kyle Lewis needs to get healthy he has such a high ceiling but injuries are killing his development. 2020 until he is a factor. Carlson has a high ceiling but we haven't really seen him pitch yet, he has the "stuff" but too young and far away to matter yet.

Everyone else on the list I think is unimpressive. Obviously Mike Ford is going to get a chance to win a spot based on rule 5, I honestly like him more than Vogelbach. Time is now for Vogelbach I think he has done all he can in AAA so it seems a spot on the roster will be either taken by Vogelbach or Mike Ford. Both guys have similar skill sets so it makes you wonder.

Obviously a bunch of pitchers are going to get a shot because the pitching depth is weak. Povse, De Jong, Whalen, Rumbelow and Moll are all going to see time in the Majors this season out of necessity rather than talent.

 

[seahawksfan234]

basically an incredibly shitty farm system. I actually really like the article you posted I think the writer did a good job of analyzing and grading players.

Out of the Mariners minor league dumpster there is only a handful of guys I think could make an impact on the major league roster within 2-3 seasons:

-Evan White is my favorite I think he has the most potential to be a success in the majors. However we need to see him on the field regularly to get a better idea of what he has. 2020 until he is a factor.
-Braden Bishop I have at 2 because I think he is the closest to the majors. I kinda get a Peter Bourjos comparison with maybe a little more avg and potential upside.
-Sam Carlson and Kyle Lewis are tied at 3 for me. Kyle Lewis needs to get healthy he has such a high ceiling but injuries are killing his development. 2020 until he is a factor. Carlson has a high ceiling but we haven't really seen him pitch yet, he has the "stuff" but too young and far away to matter yet.

Everyone else on the list I think is unimpressive. Obviously Mike Ford is going to get a chance to win a spot based on rule 5, I honestly like him more than Vogelbach. Time is now for Vogelbach I think he has done all he can in AAA so it seems a spot on the roster will be either taken by Vogelbach or Mike Ford. Both guys have similar skill sets so it makes you wonder.

Obviously a bunch of pitchers are going to get a shot because the pitching depth is weak. Povse, De Jong, Whalen, Rumbelow and Moll are all going to see time in the Majors this season out of necessity rather than talent.

Using that website's ratings I'd personally give Carlson a B+

You hit the nail on the head regarding Carlson, but I really like his ceiling a lot. If not for the injuries I think Kyle Lewis would warrant a B+ instead of a B.

Evan White I like a lot. He could be a really unique player based on his skill set coming out of college. I'd like to see him develop a bit more power though.

I was surprised that anyone after White, Bishop, Carlson and Lewis got anything above a C. All the guys after those four I see as C or C- prospects. Everyone after those four is essentially worthless.

 

[unlvmariners]

Using that website's ratings I'd personally give Carlson a B+

You hit the nail on the head regarding Carlson, but I really like his ceiling a lot. If not for the injuries I think Kyle Lewis would warrant a B+ instead of a B.

Evan White I like a lot. He could be a really unique player based on his skill set coming out of college. I'd like to see him develop a bit more power though.

I was surprised that anyone after White, Bishop, Carlson and Lewis got anything above a C. All the guys after those four I see as C or C- prospects. Everyone after those four is essentially worthless.

I think Carlson if was closer to the Majors a B+ makes sense, I think since he is so far off and hasn't really pitched much the writer gave him a B, which I think is fair at this point.

I think you could put any of the top 3 in any order and it would be valid. The biggest problem in my opinion with the top 3 guys in the organization is a complete lack of playing time and each of them as had an injury of sort or another. So we have very small sample sizes to look at and its difficult to make a good evaluation with any of them so a lot of it is based on "potential".

For the most part I agree there isn't much beyond the top 4 guys. Probably some spot start guys, bullpen arms and a couple bench guys but nothing I can see really sticking or being a dependable everyday player. For example I really like Seth Elledge, drafted last year, but he is a bullpen guy. I could see him knocking on the door by the end of 2019 if he pitches well.

Unfortunately a lot of these guys on the list are just so far off it just doesn't matter yet.

 

[wazzu31]

It seems like Dipoto has moved on from him. He has had chances to get a look up here but hasn't gotten a real shot. Valencia was struggling for a long period last year, they traded for Alonso and now they traded for Healey and have Ford. Multiple chances to give him a chance and he hasn't gotten it. Leads me to believe Dipoto hasn't been impressed with what he has seen

I think Vogelbach was given a legitimate shot by Jerry and just failed miserably. He could still possibly play in the bigs but he can't just be mister patience like he was with his time with the Mariners or in AAA. A big core with a poor core can't get behind in the count as much as he does.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think Carlson if was closer to the Majors a B+ makes sense, I think since he is so far off and hasn't really pitched much the writer gave him a B, which I think is fair at this point.

I think you could put any of the top 3 in any order and it would be valid. The biggest problem in my opinion with the top 3 guys in the organization is a complete lack of playing time and each of them as had an injury of sort or another. So we have very small sample sizes to look at and its difficult to make a good evaluation with any of them so a lot of it is based on "potential".

For the most part I agree there isn't much beyond the top 4 guys. Probably some spot start guys, bullpen arms and a couple bench guys but nothing I can see really sticking or being a dependable everyday player. For example I really like Seth Elledge, drafted last year, but he is a bullpen guy. I could see him knocking on the door by the end of 2019 if he pitches well.

Unfortunately a lot of these guys on the list are just so far off it just doesn't matter yet.

Good point on Carlson. I think he's a really high upside guy. Pretty sure both he and White were rated top 15 prospects in the draft.

Frustrating that is all we've really got in our farm system right now. Whoever is next in line to clean up Dipoto's mess will really have their hands full.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Austin Jackson signed a 2 year $6m deal with the Giants. Nice bargain signing for them. He hit really well in limited time (280 ABs). He hit .318/.387/.458 with 7 HRs, 3 triples and 19 doubles.

 

[navamind]

basically an incredibly shitty farm system. I actually really like the article you posted I think the writer did a good job of analyzing and grading players.

Out of the Mariners minor league dumpster there is only a handful of guys I think could make an impact on the major league roster within 2-3 seasons:

-Evan White is my favorite I think he has the most potential to be a success in the majors. However we need to see him on the field regularly to get a better idea of what he has. 2020 until he is a factor.
-Braden Bishop I have at 2 because I think he is the closest to the majors. I kinda get a Peter Bourjos comparison with maybe a little more avg and potential upside.
-Sam Carlson and Kyle Lewis are tied at 3 for me. Kyle Lewis needs to get healthy he has such a high ceiling but injuries are killing his development. 2020 until he is a factor. Carlson has a high ceiling but we haven't really seen him pitch yet, he has the "stuff" but too young and far away to matter yet.

Everyone else on the list I think is unimpressive. Obviously Mike Ford is going to get a chance to win a spot based on rule 5, I honestly like him more than Vogelbach. Time is now for Vogelbach I think he has done all he can in AAA so it seems a spot on the roster will be either taken by Vogelbach or Mike Ford. Both guys have similar skill sets so it makes you wonder.

Obviously a bunch of pitchers are going to get a shot because the pitching depth is weak. Povse, De Jong, Whalen, Rumbelow and Moll are all going to see time in the Majors this season out of necessity rather than talent.

John Sickels is great, he's usually the first I turn to when I'm looking at prospect stuff. Baseball America and Fangraphs do a great job too. Keith Law is good too if you can get past his attitude, but I don't have Insider so I can rarely read his stuff directly.

 

[unlvmariners]

Good point on Carlson. I think he's a really high upside guy. Pretty sure both he and White were rated top 15 prospects in the draft.

Frustrating that is all we've really got in our farm system right now. Whoever is next in line to clean up Dipoto's mess will really have their hands full.

For sure Carlson has the high upside and I hope he can stay as a starter for numerous reasons sometimes pitchers get forced into being relief guys. But that said I think he has the stuff to stay as a starter or at least it sounds like it. Lot to learn about him and tough for me to get to excited about him yet just because he is so far away.

Little bit off topic but Dipoto has really ticked me off this last season and the current off season. He seems completely out of touch with team needs. I do think the offense looks decent but there is so much that can go wrong and lets face it this is the Mariners so it probably will. I have a hard time believing the offense can keep up with the pitching. The pitching is too thin for me to have any faith in it. And touching back on the prospect side of things there is virtually nothing as far as starting pitching in the minors to get excited about outside of Carlson. Dipoto was a pitcher?? you gotta be joking my ass

 

[unlvmariners]

John Sickels is great, he's usually the first I turn to when I'm looking at prospect stuff. Baseball America and Fangraphs do a great job too. Keith Law is good too if you can get past his attitude, but I don't have Insider so I can rarely read his stuff directly.

I follow the Mariners minor leagues fairly closely and I think for the most part he was spot on with most of the players maybe even a little more optimistic about some of them than I think a lot of us Mariners fans are. The Mariners farm system in a garbage heap at the moment.

 

[navamind]

No, Vogelbach cannot and will not hit at the MLB level unless he changes his entire approach. His approach and body type are like oil and water or name your polar opposite analogy.

What can I say, I'm a sucker for guys with great plate discipline. Still wouldn't give up on him after 42 plate appearances.

 

[navamind]

I follow the Mariners minor leagues fairly closely and I think for the most part he was spot on with most of the players maybe even a little more optimistic about some of them than I think a lot of us Mariners fans are. The Mariners farm system in a garbage heap at the moment.

I think he's pretty spot on with the Red Sox system as well, though I'm not sure I agree with how he ranks Sam Travis versus Josh Ockimey even if the latter ends up being a DH. I'm just not sure Travis will hit enough to be a productive 1B whereas Ockimey has intriguing power potential (and has at least shown some power) to go along with strong walk rates.

 

[wazzu31]

What can I say, I'm a sucker for guys with great plate discipline. Still wouldn't give up on him after 42 plate appearances.

I agree, and it's a great quality to have except with him, (personal opinion from the times I've seen him) his personal fitness is a horrible approach for him to always get down 0-2. He doesn't have the core or bat speed to always be defending both corners for one pitch at the big league level. To me, his approach is too much like an old school leadoff hitter and not that of a guy with his skill set. I could be completely wrong and he ends up being a stud but I just can't see it.

 

[wazzu31]

Good point on Carlson. I think he's a really high upside guy. Pretty sure both he and White were rated top 15 prospects in the draft.

Frustrating that is all we've really got in our farm system right now. Whoever is next in line to clean up Dipoto's mess will really have their hands full.

I'll be the first to admit I don't follow the system below AAA closely at all but it's concerning that Lewis has become injury prone and White got hurt right away as well. Also concerning all the minor leaguers he got last off-season didn't move up in the ranks when he dealt what 5 top 20 prospects this year.

 

[NWinAZ]

What can I say, I'm a sucker for guys with great plate discipline. Still wouldn't give up on him after 42 plate appearances.

After watching Mr. Plate Discipline himself wash out, I am not a big believer in it. Not chasing bad pitches is one thing, consistantly waiting for the pitch of a lifetime is another and Vogelbach is trending towards that.

 

[wazzu31]

After watching Mr. Plate Discipline himself wash out, I am not a big believer in it. Not chasing bad pitches is one thing, consistantly waiting for the pitch of a lifetime is another and Vogelbach is trending towards that.

Bastard, I tried writing that like 10 separate times but couldn't put it into words without it being incoherent and rambling so I took it out.

 

[unlvmariners]

I think he's pretty spot on with the Red Sox system as well, though I'm not sure I agree with how he ranks Sam Travis versus Josh Ockimey even if the latter ends up being a DH. I'm just not sure Travis will hit enough to be a productive 1B whereas Ockimey has intriguing power potential (and has at least shown some power) to go along with strong walk rates.

Let me preface this by saying I am no expert on the Red Sox farm.... But I am somewhat familiar with a few of the Red Sox prospects, Sam Travis being one of them not as familiar with Ockimey. They seem like very similar prospects in the sense that they are almost good enough at one thing to outweigh the flaws but not quite there yet. I kinda see Travis projecting as a right handed pre 2017 Yonder Alonso, as far as statistical comparisons. From the outside looking in I would give slight favor to Travis just because he has "arrived" in the majors, as far as ceiling goes Ockimey probably has the slight edge but only time will tell on that.

 

[unlvmariners]

Bastard, I tried writing that like 10 separate times but couldn't put it into words without it being incoherent and rambling so I took it out.

you got Yoda'd