Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread 2018-2019

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]

We asked for the #8 prospect in baseball and settle for the 31st ranked prospect. Oh Jerry.

MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

 

[NWinAZ]

We asked for the #8 prospect in baseball and settle for the 31st ranked prospect. Oh Jerry.

MLB.com 2018 Prospect Watch

There were 12 higher ranked pitchers.

 

[NWinAZ]

Justus Sheffield | Rank: 31 (Preseason: 48)
Team: Seattle MarinersETA: 2018Position: LHPAge: 22 DOB: 05/13/1996Bats: L Throws: LHeight: 6' 0" Weight: 200 lb.Drafted: 2014, 1st (31) - CLEOther Lists: Top 30 New York Yankees Prospects (#1), Top 10 LHP Prospects (#4)
Watch
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

The Indians parted with two former first-rounders, Clint Frazier (No. 5 overall in 2013) and Sheffield (No. 31 in 2014), as part of a four-prospect package to get Andrew Miller from the Yankees in July 2016. The only detour in Sheffield's steady development path came when he missed most of the final two months of last season with a strained oblique, though afterward he was one of the best pitchers in the Arizona Fall League. His older brother Jordan, a right-hander, was a 2016 supplemental first-round choice by the Dodgers.

Sheffield could have three plus pitches when all is said and done. His 92-97 mph fastball features some run and sink and is his most consistent offering, though his mid-80s slider may have more upside. His changeup isn't as reliable as his first two options, yet he still shows the ability to miss bats with it.

Though Sheffield is a little shorter than desired for a starter at 5-foot-11, he still creates downhill plane with his delivery and doesn't throw with excessive effort. He's athletic and has been durable as a pro outside of his oblique injury. He improved his control in 2017 and has the potential to become a No. 3 starter.

 

[NWinAZ]

Erik Swanson | Rank: 22 (Preseason: NR)
Team: Tacoma Rainiers (AAA)ETA: 2019Position: RHPAge: 25 DOB: 09/04/1993Bats: R Throws: RHeight: 6' 3" Weight: 235 lb.Drafted: 2014, 8th (246) - TEX
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

Swanson helped Iowa Western CC win the 2014 Junior College World Series, throwing a seven-inning shutout in the second round of the event. He signed with the Rangers as an eight-rounder that June, then missed most of his first full pro season with a forearm strain and went to the Yankees as part of a trade for Carlos Beltran during his second. He dominated in Double-A at the start of 2018 but hasn't been as sharp since getting promoted to Triple-A and missing three weeks at midseason with a strained groin.

Swanson has a deceptive delivery that leads to a lot of bad swings against his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and touches 97. He leans heavily on his heater, relying on its running action to slip it by hitters up in the strike zone. He has scrapped a curveball and switched to a mid-80s slider than can be a solid pitch at times.

His changeup has similar velocity and has become more effective as Swanson has trusted it more. He has a long track record of throwing strikes but his command isn't as sharp as his control. He could be a No. 4 starter if he continues to refine his secondary pitches, though a big league role as a fastball-heavy reliever is more likely.

 

[NWinAZ]

James Paxton-Justus Sheffield Trade: Scouting The Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees Deal

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[The Q]

I've always secretly wondered why the M's don't use their available money towards getting the best front office and scouting instead of spending $240M on Cano, $63M on Leake, $50M on Gordon ect.

The best group of guys to build the farm is likely far cheaper than signing/trading for high player salaries, no?

Then when the Mariners start pumping out prospect after prospect and have a solid exciting young core, they can slowly add some top guys as the final pieces with the extra money from ticket sales, TV ratings, merchandise ect.

Am I making this more simple than it really is?

The problem is with the caps on amateur talent means you can’t use your financial resources on that young talent like the royals and blue jays did for the 2010s.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I'm pretty whatever with the Paxton trade. Paxton is a good pitcher when he's healthy, which is hardly ever. I can't imagine Seattle was going to get a top 10 prospect for a guy who has never seen 30 games and when he did was approaching a 4 ERA. Paxton is also 30 and given his limited action his best days may be ahead of him but I'm not holding my breath.

Naturally because it's the Ms Paxton will now help lead the Yankees to 3 WS titles averaging a 2.75 ERA and 1.1 WHIP while Sheffield balloons to 220 in the offseason, injures himself, and flames out at 25.

 

[NWinAZ]

So no ability to add a Seager or Gordon to a Paxton deal? I truly look at this as a fail. It is a success for M's ownership because they get to excuse the fact they traded their best pitcher to save millions of dollars.

DIP said now they are going after a catcher. I would guess he will be 25 or under if playing for 2 to 3 years down the road.

I am glad they admitted to be playing for 2 to 3 years down the road. Don't get me wrong, they always are. Just nice they finally admitted it.

 

[Cloud]

Hold the fk on. Are they so hell bent on trying to help the Yankees increase the WS odds that they pull the trigger on this? The Yankees top prospect is #31 and potentially a #3 starter.

Pretty sure there are other “better” pitching prospects in front of #31 and could possibly be had in some kind of package deal with Paxton.

What the actual fuck? Stop doing single player deals and get a package together. Shit!

This is a fail.

 

[NWinAZ]

Rangers beat writer

 

[Cloud]

Rangers beat writer

Kinda like describing my work place. Lots and lots of short term bandages and no long term solutions from management. It’s typically bad.

 

[wazzu31]

I reserve to really hold judgement on this deal but I think it is just shows Jerry isn’t a MLB quality GM. You don’t do ace caliber deals in the offseason. Paxton is a strange situation where you either keep him and sell terrible because he is hurt at the deadline or if he is healthy at the deadline you get two of the top 4 prospects in the organization. The fact that Jerry didn’t throw in an add in is kind of frustrating as well.

Not liking the early reports on it though. It just reeks of the Pineda/Montero from all of the people who are paid to know more about prospects than I know.

 

[Mariners_44]

A lot of people didn’t like the Walker deal either, and that worked out ok. I’m not saying that this is a great deal, but in trades like these I think only time will tell; have to hope for the best. Getting their #1 prospect is a decent start when considering we weren’t ever gonna benefit from Paxton’s abilities moving forward. I just wish we could have dumped a salary in the process. That being said, do a deal like this for Diaz and I would be pissed. We need to deal him, but it better be a haul. If we are truly rebuilding then nobody is off limits.

 

[Cloud]

A lot of people didn’t like the Walker deal either, and that worked out ok. I’m not saying that this is a great deal, but in trades like these I think only time will tell; have to hope for the best. Getting their #1 prospect is a decent start when considering we weren’t ever gonna benefit from Paxton’s abilities moving forward. I just wish we could have dumped a salary in the process. That being said, do a deal like this for Diaz and I would be pissed. We need to deal him, but it better be a haul. If we are truly rebuilding then nobody is off limits.

As Wazzu stated above, I’m not a fan of moving ace caliber pitchers in the offseason especially when he has multiple years of team control left. The benefit of moving a high caliber pitcher during the season is you set yourself up for a bidding war and maximize the return from playoff contenders.

Only way I’d be willing to get rid of an ace in the offseason if it was a blockbuster deal. This was not blockbuster.

They’ve said no one is off limit but I’d be okay if they hold on to him for next year’s deadline.

 

[The Q]

Sounds like they wanted a premium to send him in the same division

 

[PolarVortex]

Paxton is a brittle bitch and a mental midget. He won't hack it in New York. Mariners sold high on him. Pretty good trade. But, of course, this is the Mariners we are talking about so the prospects will all end up sucking.

 

[The Q]

As Wazzu stated above, I’m not a fan of moving ace caliber pitchers in the offseason especially when he has multiple years of team control left. The benefit of moving a high caliber pitcher during the season is you set yourself up for a bidding war and maximize the return from playoff contenders.

Only way I’d be willing to get rid of an ace in the offseason if it was a blockbuster deal. This was not blockbuster.

They’ve said no one is off limit but I’d be okay if they hold on to him for next year’s deadline.

A guy like Paxton is such an injury risk I think you should be open to waiving that concept.

 

[Mariners_44]

Scouts may not think we got enough, but considering his health history at now 30 years of age who says there was anything better on the table? I do agree that it's very possible we land more in trade had we waited during the season, but he's a TJ surgery away from getting nothing for him. It's easy to think we could have gotten more, but I think we got as much as we could at this point of the offseason.