Official July 31 trade deadline thread

[SF11704]

If Pence tells you there would be a good chance even if we trade him he would seriously consider coming back as a FA. You trade him today. Take a few B prospects and try and bring Pence back as a FA

While I do believe that Pence loves playing in SF I also believe that as a professional it is always better to never burn any bridges unless it is absolutely necessary. I think that if we traded Pence to the Pirates and they went far into the playoffs he would again enjoy himself and he would become a vital part of that team. I think that in an open FA market we wouldn't hold any significant edge. I do believe that he likes playing in SF but be is not going to give anyone a deep discount. If he is offered 4/60 by someone other than us (seems to high for us) .... I see him taking that offer ....

 

[calsnowskier]

While I do believe that Pence loves playing in SF I also believe that as a professional it is always better to never burn any bridges unless it is absolutely necessary. I think that if we traded Pence to the Pirates and they went far into the playoffs he would again enjoy himself and he would become a vital part of that team. I think that in an open FA market we wouldn't hold any significant edge. I do believe that he likes playing in SF but be is not going to give anyone a deep discount. If he is offered 4/60 by someone other than us (seems to high for us) .... I see him taking that offer ....

I 100% believe that he loves it here. But ultimately, he will enjoy playing for maybe 28 of the 30 teams. And 26 of those 27 other teams will allow him to put up better offensive numbers. And probably 10 of those 26 teams would be willing to commit more money/years than we would, especially if they do not lose a draft pick. (Those numbers are just to make a point - they are not based on actual counts)

 

[tzill]

I agree, but you don't overpay for him to come back. If he wants 4/60 sorry bro...
Partly for reasons I posted above...we will always have to overpay to get hitters in their prime to sign here. We need to sign FA pitchers, develop hitters.

But, as Nate Silver has documented, FA starters are the worst investment out there.

 

[msgkings322]

But, as Nate Silver has documented, FA starters are the worst investment out there.

Maybe his numbers are skewed by the Zito outlier? Only half joking.

If you avoid the Zitos you should be ok. I agree FA pitchers are riskier because of injury, but maybe you underpay them with years not dollars. All I'm saying is we have a big problem signing FA hitters at fair value here...why not acknowledge that, and take advantage of the flip side, what should be an advantage signing FA pitchers?

 

[SFGRTB]

D-Backs just traded Ian Kennedy FOR...











Joe Thatcher.

 

[tzill]

Maybe his numbers are skewed by the Zito outlier? Only half joking.

If you avoid the Zitos you should be ok. I agree FA pitchers are riskier because of injury, but maybe you underpay them with years not dollars. All I'm saying is we have a big problem signing FA hitters at fair value here...why not acknowledge that, and take advantage of the flip side, what should be an advantage signing FA pitchers?

If you "underpay them with years" you don't get them at that. Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Jason Schmidt, etc... aren't going to take less years.

E.g. say we decide to go after Ervin Santana this offseason. Say we offer 3/60 to limit our future exposure (the Zito Effect, as it were). Another team comes in at 5/75. One of two things will happen: we will add a fourth year (now it's 4/75) at least to be competitive with the other offer, or the other team will up it's total offer (5/80). Either way, we don't get him by "underpaying with years."

So, to "avoid the Zitos" you don't play in those waters. You deal (usually prospects) for youngish, team controlled pitchers, you dumpster dive, or you develop them yourself. The first avenue is prohibitively expensive since young good pitching is at a premium. The second path is a low risk/low reward game (hello, Chad Gaudin and Ryan Vogelsong). The third way (let's call it the Giants Way) is the most efficient option. You either develop your own studs (hello Freak, Horse, and Bum) or you have talent to trade for vets (hello Bump, Grilli, Alderson, Wheeler).

If you go after FA starters, you're going to get burned. Especially when you have an org that has a track record of finding and developing pitchers. Let the other orgs play the Cliff Lee/Johan Santana game, we should stick to developing pitching...it's our strength.

As for FA hitters, yes we are at a slight disadvantage (esp LH hitters), but we can overcome that with smart trades and continuing to develop from within (hello Buster, Panda, Stamos, BB9). I wouldn't give up on Panik, Kiesh, Brown, or Pegs just yet. Or Adrianza, Noonan, Perez, Villegas, Susac, Monell, AnVil, Oropesa, Herrera, Minicozzi, RafRod, Jones, or Duffy either.

 

[tzill]

Reds now in on JLo; Giants not lowering demands. 63 minutes and counting.

 

[SFGRTB]

Reds now in on JLo; Giants not lowering demands. 63 minutes and counting.

If the Pads can get a legit starting pitcher for Thatcher, JLo's price should remain high. We should thank the D-Backs in this one.

 

[msgkings322]

If you "underpay them with years" you don't get them at that. Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown, Jason Schmidt, etc... aren't going to take less years.

E.g. say we decide to go after Ervin Santana this offseason. Say we offer 3/60 to limit our future exposure (the Zito Effect, as it were). Another team comes in at 5/75. One of two things will happen: we will add a fourth year (now it's 4/75) at least to be competitive with the other offer, or the other team will up it's total offer (5/80). Either way, we don't get him by "underpaying with years."

So, to "avoid the Zitos" you don't play in those waters. You deal (usually prospects) for youngish, team controlled pitchers, you dumpster dive, or you develop them yourself. The first avenue is prohibitively expensive since young good pitching is at a premium. The second path is a low risk/low reward game (hello, Chad Gaudin and Ryan Vogelsong). The third way (let's call it the Giants Way) is the most efficient option. You either develop your own studs (hello Freak, Horse, and Bum) or you have talent to trade for vets (hello Bump, Grilli, Alderson, Wheeler).

If you go after FA starters, you're going to get burned. Especially when you have an org that has a track record of finding and developing pitchers. Let the other orgs play the Cliff Lee/Johan Santana game, we should stick to developing pitching...it's our strength.

As for FA hitters, yes we are at a slight disadvantage (esp LH hitters), but we can overcome that with smart trades and continuing to develop from within (hello Buster, Panda, Stamos, BB9). I wouldn't give up on Panik, Kiesh, Brown, or Pegs just yet. Or Adrianza, Noonan, Perez, Villegas, Susac, Monell, AnVil, Oropesa, Herrera, Minicozzi, RafRod, Jones, or Duffy either.

This is a good post, probably swayed my position some.

But the bolded: you know only 4-5 of those names will be legit ML starting ballplayers, at best right? ANd maybe 1 allstar?
I haven't 'given up' on any of them, I don't follow the minors even a fraction as closely as some of you guys here. It's just that's how the game works, most prospects just don't amount to anything no matter how fun they are to put 'ceilings' on

 

[tzill]

This is a good post, probably swayed my position some.

But the bolded: you know only 4-5 of those names will be legit ML starting ballplayers, at best right? ANd maybe 1 allstar?
I haven't 'given up' on any of them, I don't follow the minors even a fraction as closely as some of you guys here. It's just that's how the game works, most prospects just don't amount to anything no matter how fun they are to put 'ceilings' on

If that were the case, I'd be overjoyed. As would SabeySabes. If one becomes a ML starter (2.0+ WAR/yr) and another a good bench player (1.0 WAR) it's a productive system. If we were to get four ML players, I'd probably die of shock. But one does get the feeling that at least one will make it, and perhaps become an all-star.

In other words, if we got two players who become current BB9's, that would be a haul.

 

[tzill]

44 mins, no deal yet...

 

[msgkings322]

If that were the case, I'd be overjoyed. As would SabeySabes. If one becomes a ML starter (2.0+ WAR/yr) and another a good bench player (1.0 WAR) it's a productive system. If we were to get four ML players, I'd probably die of shock. But one does get the feeling that at least one will make it, and perhaps become an all-star.

In other words, if we got two players who become current BB9's, that would be a haul.

Yeah I guess I overstated and undermined my own point. The point still stands, that if we just try to develop our own starters and hitters, we won't have enough talent to win. You gotta sign FAs. If starting pitching is a bad idea to sign FAs (and I think you convinced me) then you gotta overpay for guys like Pence, right?

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Lopez likely not going to be dealt. Sabean is high on something. Asked the Indians for their top SP prospect Danny Salazar. Reports are price is just as high for other teams. Oh well

 

[SF11704]

IMHO I think that the FA market is used to close specific holes. As an example a team may have a decent crop of OFers but not a CF. If you can't fill the hole you will most likely use what you do have as trading chips to fill that hole via FA. If you need a 1B but don't have one in the minors you need to go to FA. Developing what you need is probably more luck than anything else. Like you guys already stated ... getting 2 BB9s would be a haul in terms of talent .... but having an 'open' position is another story

 

[tzill]

Yeah I guess I overstated and undermined my own point. The point still stands, that if we just try to develop our own starters and hitters, we won't have enough talent to win. You gotta sign FAs. If starting pitching is a bad idea to sign FAs (and I think you convinced me) then you gotta overpay for guys like Pence, right?

I don't disagree. It's the nature of FAs I guess we differ on. I don't want FA SPs. I don't necessarily want FA starting position players (although I'm more open to this). I like SabeySabes track record of trading for guys who are good starters or become one for a period of time (Scoots, Blanco, Pagan, Gangle, Uribe, Vizquel, Rent, etc.). Much less downside risk than the Rowands and Alfonzos of the world. However, a team must take advantage of all avenues of talent acquisition, and FA is one path. One I'd tread carefully upon.

 

[tzill]

Lopez likely not going to be dealt. Sabean is high on something. Asked the Indians for their top SP prospect Danny Salazar. Reports are price is just as high for other teams. Oh well

Do you realize how effing good JLo is? Of COURSE he'll take a top prospect to get.

 

[tzill]

IMHO I think that the FA market is used to close specific holes. As an example a team may have a decent crop of OFers but not a CF. If you can't fill the hole you will most likely use what you do have as trading chips to fill that hole via FA. If you need a 1B but don't have one in the minors you need to go to FA. Developing what you need is probably more luck than anything else. Like you guys already stated ... getting 2 BB9s would be a haul in terms of talent .... but having an 'open' position is another story

You're conflating FA and trades. They are different things.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Do you realize how effing good JLo is? Of COURSE he'll take a top prospect to get.

He is very good but his primary use is against lefties and he is an impending FA. You don't give up a top pitching prospect for that

 

[tzill]

He is very good but his primary use is against lefties and he is an impending FA. You don't give up a top pitching prospect for that

Apparently the Tribe agrees with you.

The team that has him at the end of the season has the inside track on resigning him. I'd expect he'll be back in 2014.

 

[tzill]

25 mins and counting...