Official GM replacement thread

[seahawksfan234]

I know many of you have little hope this organization will become functional until ownership changes, but in reality the general manager has more control over the success of the team than anyone else in the organization so this selection will be the biggest thing the Mariners have done since they hired Jack Z.

Here are some notes on the search so far:

-Kevin Mathers wants a GM in place by early October.
-Mathers wants an experienced GM.
-Mathers has expressed confidence in McClendon and wants him back.
-Mariners have already been reaching out to potential candidates, Dan O'Dowd - former Rockies GM was contacted.
-Some other names that have been speculated are: Thad Levine, Larry Beinfest, Jerry Dipoto, Mike Chernoff and Billy Eppler.

This wasn't a name I've seen linked yet, but Ken Williams could be an interesting option.

 

[cezero]

I'd like Dipoto, but he will probably be able to get hired as a GM or in another capacity by a better team.

 

[NWinAZ]

Mathers also said he is not a baseball guy. Funny.

 

[Podunkparte]

The emphasis on a quick hire, not the right hire, does not have me feeling optimistic

 

[Davis_Mike]

I am a Dipoto fan. He got a raw deal in Anaheim. He facilitated some outstanding trades as interim GM before KT took over in AZ. He never got the credit he deserved for it. And then the situation with the Angels where the owner was signing guys that Dipoto likely didn't want & gave too much power to the manager.

 

[NWinAZ]

And then the situation with the Angels where the owner was signing guys that Dipoto likely didn't want & gave too much power to the manager.

Unfortunately we have a President who does the same meddling.

 

[cezero]

I am a Dipoto fan. He got a raw deal in Anaheim. He facilitated some outstanding trades as interim GM before KT took over in AZ. He never got the credit he deserved for it. And then the situation with the Angels where the owner was signing guys that Dipoto likely didn't want & gave too much power to the manager.

Dipoto was being openly and publicly shit on by his manager and even by players.

He chose not to be co-GM to Sausage Scioscia anymore, nobody in MLB blames him, and he is imminently employable. The Angels are going to have a hard time finding a good GM to replace him.

I don't think there's a chance in hell Dipoto would think about coming to Seattle unless he had complete autonomy, and guarantees about payroll. He could bring in some professional staff at all levels.

I don't want to parse what Mathers said or try to be too optimistic, but it felt very much like he was trying to send out a signal to potential GM's that the organization will indeed do what a guy like Dipoto would require.

I won't hold my breath, though, regarding Dipoto or any other good baseball guy coming here.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Mathers also said he is not a baseball guy. Funny.

Something he has in common with the rest of the organization.

 

[wazzu31]

Mathers also said he is not a baseball guy. Funny.

Which is what I don't get. He admits not being a baseball but will not bring in a baseball guy to help with hire. How the hell is he suppose to know to look for, just a name or something? In his imterview he listed off all the stuff he is looking for in a GM so basically he wants the perfect so a candidate can come in and lie like Jack did with his sabermetrics

 

[NWinAZ]

Buster Olney, Senior Writer, ESPN Insider

The search for Jack Zduriencik's replacement in Seattle has already begun, and Mariners president Kevin Mather talked about the core of the team with reporters Friday, implying that the foundation of a winner is in place and that a series of apt moves by the next general manager could push the team into the playoffs next season.

Hopefully there will be a more circumspect and nuanced organizational perspective behind closed doors and in the interviews with the Mariners' GM candidates, because Seattle's truth could be more complicated.

They might be a lot further away from contending than anybody wearing a suit wants to admit publicly. The worst thing Mather and his bosses can do is set an expectation in the GM search that the next person in charge better believe the team can win right away because what the Mariners could wind up with is a yes-man GM, somebody who tells them what they want to hear, and not necessarily the best GM to lead the organization.

The honest assessment for Mather and the GM candidates is that there is a real possibility the theoretical Mariners core is a mirage.

It could be that Robinson Cano will bounce back from this, his worst season since 2008 and, at age 33, have a much better season in 2016. But the truth is it's also possible Cano's regression has begun, with eight years remaining on his contract. Felix Hernandez isn't a Cy Young Award candidate this year -- he has his highest ERA since 2007 -- and perhaps the quality of the team or the increasing hopelessness of the 2015 season wore on his performance. But it's also possible that after a decade in the big leagues and 34,005 pitches, he is not going to be as dominant as he has been in the past. Nelson Cruz is 35 years old and having the best season of his career, in the first year of a four-year deal, but his decline might not be that far off.

So to make expensive, short-term, win-now moves to prop up the Mariners' core of players could turn out to be futile and very expensive in the short- and long-term, and if Mather and the Seattle ownership need a primer about how this sort of thing can go very badly, all they need is to study the moves of the San Diego Padres for 2015.

In the estimation of rival executives, the Padres squandered player value to the sum of hundreds of millions of dollars in a bet to win this year, and that didn't materialize. Now, as August ends, San Diego is closing in on playoff elimination, with the top of its farm system stripped away, some expensive (and mostly unmovable) veterans dotting their roster and some enormous holes to fill, with the Padres left with little recourse but to delve into the free-agent market for solutions, an ugly option that will bear even more cost.

What the Mariners should do is look for a general manager who will improve the organization's infrastructure, from the bottom to the top: more depth in players, yes, but also a stronger fabric in the organization, including the trust between the staffers and the front office and a more effective way of developing young players, which, for whatever reason, has been a problem.

There is much work to be done. Jerry Crasnick writes about the Mariners' search, and in that story, a competing GM is quoted as saying he views Seattle as an organization in need of a lot of work:

"They have expectations to win, when I would want to rebuild," a competing general manager said. "They have a minimal talent base in both the majors and the minors. And there's a losing culture throughout the organization. That needs a lot of work."

Worst team OBP since 2009
Team OBP Win pct.
Mariners .302 .459
Astros .307 .412
Padres .309 .480
Cubs .312 .458
A priority while cultivating and collecting position players should be on-base percentage, which has been a constant weakness in the organization. It's hard to know whether this has been a result of philosophy or scouting or development -- although the $240 million investment in Cano, who has never drawn many walks, is significant evidence of a larger view -- but the failure in this is real and spectacular, and it is a root cause for the Mariners' constant problems in generating runs. As ESPN Stats & Information notes, the Mariners have the worst team OBP since 2009 and are 26th in the majors in win percentage during that time.

In fact, here are the Mariners' year-to-year rankings in on-base percentage and run production:

2009: 28th in OBP/29th in runs
2010: 30th/30th
2011: 30th/30th
2012: 30th/27th
2013: 22nd/26th
2014: 27th/19th
2015: 24th/24th

It would be easy to blame the Mariners' OBP problem on the spacious Safeco Field and the distaste that free agents have had for that place. But no ballpark is more reviled by veterans than Oakland's O.co Coliseum, and the Athletics have generally fared well in on-base percentage and run production in the past seven seasons, through wise player choices and the creation of strong platoons.

It's possible for the Mariners to break through next year, if they settle their shortstop problem, and if the next GM identifies a couple of good starting pitchers, and if Cano recovers, and if Cruz continues his offensive surge in his mid 30s, and if Hernandez's elbow holds up. But the team's next GM cannot be wholly devoted to trying to make that happen; this should be only part of a larger effort of what he or she does in trying to make the Mariners better.

It took Dayton Moore and Neal Huntington about seven years to build something sustainable in Kansas City and Pittsburgh, respectively, and the next Mariners' GM -- who will have a lot more resources -- won't need anywhere near that much time to make Seattle good again. The Mariners have a lot more money than those teams and better players than what Moore and Huntington started with.

But if anyone walks in the door and speaks glowingly about the core in place and the opportunity for a quick and easy turnaround, Mather and the folks he works for should be immediately suspicious. There is a reason they are looking for a new general manager: The baseball operations department needs a makeover, not one or two holes patched at the big league level.

Worst MLB win pct. since 2009
Team Record Win pct.
Astros 453-647 .412
Marlins 498-602 .453
Cubs 502-595 .458
Rockies 503-594 .459
Mariners 505-595 .459
More from ESPN Stats & Info: Zduriencik was hired in October 2008. Since the 2009 season, the Mariners have the fifth-worst record in baseball.

Also, Zduriencik had three picks in the top five in the MLB draft, and none of them has made a significant impact in the majors. Mike Zunino, the third pick overall in the 2012 draft, has a batting average of .193 for his career (.174 this season); Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick in 2009, has a OPS+ of 92 and was traded to the Yankees this season; and Danny Hultzen, the second pick in 2011, has yet to reach the majors.

Another ESPN Stats & Info tidbit: The closest the Mariners came to the postseason with Zduriencik at GM was last year, when they finished one game out of a tie with the A's for a wild-card berth. The Mariners haven't made the postseason since 2001, and they finished at the bottom of the American League West from 2010 to 2012 (the Astros joined the division in 2013). Seattle's active 13-year postseason drought is second only to the Blue Jays (21, dating back to the 1993 World Series).

Evan Grant writes: Could the Rangers be in jeopardy of losing Thad Levine to the Mariners? Now comes the hard part for the Mariners, Larry Stone writes. Zduriencik had a lot more misses than hits, John McGrath writes.

 

[wazzu31]

It's really hard to think the next Mariners GM is anything but a stepping stone job for a young hot shot or a last job in the MLB. Either way we all know the next GM isn't going to have the power a GM should have. Jack Z deserved to be fired but when management admits to not being baseball guys but are either over ruling or not allowing their GM on baseball moves the organization is damn near hopeless until moves are made with the non baseball guys.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Interesting article @NWinAZ

A few things,

Looks like Buster Olney must lurk the Sportshoopla forums. A while back I made a thread showing that I didn't see any stat that correlated higher with winning percentage than OBP. I used playoff teams as an example, but it seems that he noticed a similar trend.

Also, he makes a compelling argument to rebuild. That's a tough decision for this organization to make. I believe that the Mariners need to give complete autonomy to whoever they hire, if they decide we should rebuild, we should rebuild.

That being said, I'm on the fence as far as that goes. Olney brought up a valid point about Cano, yet Cano is hitting similar to the way he did at his peak with the Yankees as of June 17th. Take his statistics over that 60 game span and his stats are extremely similar to his best seasons in New York.

Cano, Felix and Cruz all represent great players. Is Felix regressing? Tough to say at this point. There is a strong argument to be made that he has some sort of nagging injury, but nothing regarding that has been released. His "regression" was just too sudden and weird to just be the normal deterioration that occurs with age.

Cruz is the toughest player to evaluate. He's having one of the best seasons offensively of any player in Mariners history, which is impressive considering that we have had Hall of Famers such as A-Rod, Griffey, Ichiro and Edgar. Yet he is 35 years old, and honestly I would've expected him to start regressing already.

I think a cautious approach is the best to take. I think that any moves you make to build the roster should be ones that would improve the team today, as well as 3-5 years from now. That means any big additions are guys who are entering their prime, or are in their mid 20s to late 20s at the oldest.

 

[NWinAZ]

Also, he makes a compelling argument to rebuild. That's a tough decision for this organization to make. I believe that the Mariners need to give complete autonomy to whoever they hire, if they decide we should rebuild, we should rebuild.

Problem with rebuild is that we have tried that f0r most of our existence and it has rarely worked so is it worth trying for another 5 years to see? Plus, Felix can't be traded w/o permission, Cano can't be traded w/o eating lots of money witch works against us, and Cruz is our whole offense this year. I believe a retool is needed and not a rebuild. Fix the bullpen and add a couple pieces like we mentioned on the other thread and we can contend while not starting over again.

That being said, I'm on the fence as far as that goes. Olney brought up a valid point about Cano, yet Cano is hitting similar to the way he did at his peak with the Yankees as of June 17th. Take his statistics over that 60 game span and his stats are extremely similar to his best seasons in New York.

Ya, but that doesn't work. The whole season is what it is and you just can't take parts of it and project over a full season to judge a player. What made Cano good was his consistency over a full season with Yankees but with M's we are only getting glimpses of it. Age, content, lack of pressure all plays a part IMO.

Cano, Felix and Cruz all represent great players. Is Felix regressing? Tough to say at this point. There is a strong argument to be made that he has some sort of nagging injury, but nothing regarding that has been released. His "regression" was just too sudden and weird to just be the normal deterioration that occurs with age.

I agree, but still think some regression is there or coming soon. Not drop off a cliff regression, but from 'King' to 'Prince' regression.

Cruz is the toughest player to evaluate. He's having one of the best seasons offensively of any player in Mariners history, which is impressive considering that we have had Hall of Famers such as A-Rod, Griffey, Ichiro and Edgar. Yet he is 35 years old, and honestly I would've expected him to start regressing already.

I think he has been well preserved so I am less worried about him than say Seager for next year.

I think a cautious approach is the best to take. I think that any moves you make to build the roster should be ones that would improve the team today, as well as 3-5 years from now. That means any big additions are guys who are entering their prime, or are in their mid 20s to late 20s at the oldest.

Agree totally with this. And any player that is currently on team and not projected to be a contributor for the next 3-5 years should be dealt.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Probably the guy I would want if they are set on hiring someone with GM experience

 

[PolarVortex]

Interesting article @NWinAZ

A few things,

Looks like Buster Olney must lurk the Sportshoopla forums. A while back I made a thread showing that I didn't see any stat that correlated higher with winning percentage than OBP. I used playoff teams as an example, but it seems that he noticed a similar trend.

Also, he makes a compelling argument to rebuild. That's a tough decision for this organization to make. I believe that the Mariners need to give complete autonomy to whoever they hire, if they decide we should rebuild, we should rebuild.

That being said, I'm on the fence as far as that goes. Olney brought up a valid point about Cano, yet Cano is hitting similar to the way he did at his peak with the Yankees as of June 17th. Take his statistics over that 60 game span and his stats are extremely similar to his best seasons in New York.

Cano, Felix and Cruz all represent great players. Is Felix regressing? Tough to say at this point. There is a strong argument to be made that he has some sort of nagging injury, but nothing regarding that has been released. His "regression" was just too sudden and weird to just be the normal deterioration that occurs with age.

Cruz is the toughest player to evaluate. He's having one of the best seasons offensively of any player in Mariners history, which is impressive considering that we have had Hall of Famers such as A-Rod, Griffey, Ichiro and Edgar. Yet he is 35 years old, and honestly I would've expected him to start regressing already.

I think a cautious approach is the best to take. I think that any moves you make to build the roster should be ones that would improve the team today, as well as 3-5 years from now. That means any big additions are guys who are entering their prime, or are in their mid 20s to late 20s at the oldest.

They are going to re-build. They won't call it a re-build but that is what it will be. Their one big move this winter (other than hiriing the next shitty, lame GM) will be to re-sign Iwakuma. Otherwise, it will just be a bunch of meh. They won't even have Guti next year. He has market value now. He's gone.

 

[cezero]

I've been outspoken for wanting Dipoto.

Give him what he needs, and he can build a good club.

As I said before, no way he'll come unless he gets guarantees regarding hiring/firing at levels, sufficient payroll, etc.

 

[phredmojo]

More angels trash? didnt we learn our lesson from the Bavasi era? Just say no to Dipoto.

 

[cezero]

no other adults on tonight, eh?

hope you're all enjoying your fri night.

 

[PolarVortex]

More angels trash? didnt we learn our lesson from the Bavasi era? Just say no to Dipoto.

I wouldn't immediately write off Dipoto just because ex-Angel Bill Bavasi sucked here. That doesn't really make sense. You are talking about a sample set of.......one. Following that logic, should we just gobble up anyone that comes out of Toronto's front office just because Pat Gillick was a success here (forgetting all about how he had the best payroll advantage of any GM in Mariner history).

And Dipoto got hosed in Anaheim. Flat. Out. Hosed. A manager should never, ever win a power struggle with a general manager. You either fire the manager or you fire both of them, but the manager should never be the last guy standing. Good luck with them finding a longterm GM candidate external to their franchise. The only GM candidates willing to step into that disfunctional shitfest will be guys desperate for a job. Fat Mike has way too much power and look what's it's got them. They are far more of an under-achieving team than the Mariners are.

 

[NWinAZ]

A list of potential candidates in Mariners new search for GM