Off Season Moves/News/Rumors/Discussion Thread

[iHATEdodgers]

Sabean says Giants have the budget to sign both Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum long term; Cain making no guarantees; Lincecum frog-kicks himself into shape, Brian Wilson update, much more | Extra Baggs

Baggs mentions everything from BTR, but he also mentions this tidbit...



Um...

Uh oh.

Yeah but they said 10 pounds. One guy said 25 pounds, but the guy who rote the article said Pablo didn't look that big to him. I'm not worried he proved he's a professional to me last year.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Guys - You all realize that his stats last year were ALL career highs right? This is not his 5-year average. This is the very best that he has ever done. Common logic says that he will not repeat his 2011 numbers again. I don't have Bill James' projections, but I don't see how he tops his career stats. My guess is that he goes 14 HR 75 RBI, hits .285 with a .335 OBP. Those are not great numbers.

If Melky plays left, Belt and Huff will battle for 1B at-bats. that's not a good thing.

What the Giants need is:

1B - Huff / Posey
2B - Sanchez
3B - Panda
SS - Stamos
LF - Belt
CF Melky/Pagan
RF - Nate
C - Posey / Chez3

But that's just what I think.

That's pretty much exactly what I'm saying. I never trust a guy coming off a career year. Especially when they come from the other league and especially when he stunk the only time he played in the National League. I will be shocked if he hits 18 HRs or more - especially when his best year before that he only hit 13 in 09. Not impressive. He stunk for Atlanta, and had an ok year for KC. KC!

I think he will be a good 4th OF. But I hope I'm wrong and he is the everyday LF as Giants management has projected him to be. I'd just be surprised is all.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I'm sorry, but I don't want a guy coming off a .330 avg, 18 HR, 200+ hit (one of five players in all of baseball), and 19 stolen base season to sit, just so Nate can play - I don't care how well he plays the wall in RF.

Well luckily for you I'm not Giants management! As I noted they project Melky to be the starting LF with Pagan in CF and Nate in RF so wahtchoo complaining about? I am hoping that Belt plays so well they have to supplant Melky with him with Melky becoming the 4th OFer - partly because I happen to think people are too excited for Melky, one good season in KC doesn't mean he has arrived. (but I really do hope it does)

Yes reducing Nate to his only attribute being "playing the wall well" is entirely fair! If that was all he had then yes I'd agree, but of course it isn't. D means more to this team than most, and he plays very very good D all around not just careens off the wall in right. Plus he is developing into a pretty good bat too but forget about all that! Melky had one good year and Nate plays good balls of the wall. Balls.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Melky to me is going to be the key to this whole deal. Right now we and most outsiders are looking at the Giants and thinking about Posey and Franchez being back, about Panda keeping healthy and trim and raking, about Belt and Crawford maybe surprising us, Huff: good or bad?...

Meanwhile you got this guy on our team who had a fantastic year last year. Now maybe he doesn't do it again but maybe he does, or comes close? I just don't see folks understanding how huge that can be. With all those other stories I mean.

So Melky to me is kind of what the season turns on, because most others I think you know better what you will get. Perhaps Huff too.

I guess I'm saying, we know what we have with our pitching, and a big part of our lineup. We don't know what we have with Melky or Huff (or Pagan). 2 of 3 of those guys come up solid, and we win the division no doubt.

You say that about Melky being the key but then you more accurately talk about 2/3 (Huff, Melky, Pagan) being the key. I think Huff is the key because we know what he can bring when he's on. Melky might be pretty good but he will not bring to the table what Huff could bring. SO I'd rather have a good year from Huff than a pretty good year from Melky.

 

[msgkings322]

You say that about Melky being the key but then you more accurately talk about 2/3 (Huff, Melky, Pagan) being the key. I think Huff is the key because we know what he can bring when he's on. Melky might be pretty good but he will not bring to the table what Huff could bring. SO I'd rather have a good year from Huff than a pretty good year from Melky.

My reasoning evolved as I wrote that semi-long post!

Still think the '2 out of 3' indicator will be predictive...

 

[iHATEdodgers]

My reasoning evolved as I wrote that semi-long post!
Still think the '2 out of 3' indicator will be predictive...

HAha!! It did. I saw it! Growing there right before my eyes heheh. 2 out of 3 will be important yup, but I'll take Huff Pagan(2)/ Melky(3) over Melky Pagan(2)/ Huff(3) because Huff's higside is much greater than anything Melky could bring in my opinion.

Plus I don't think Pagan is an unknown, he was solid for the Mets since 08.

Belt is more of an unknown to me. And out of those 3 I'd much rather that Belt and Huff pan out. I think that would bode very well for this offense.

I guess I vote for everyone panning out. That would be better. And really I don't care whose in the OF as long as they are kicking ass!

 

[msgkings322]

HAha!! It did. I saw it! Growing there right before my eyes heheh. 2 out of 3 will be important yup, but I'll take Huff Pagan(2)/ Melky(3) over Melky Pagan(2)/ Huff(3) because Huff's higside is much greater than anything Melky could bring in my opinion.

Plus I don't think Pagan is an unknown, he was solid for the Mets since 08.

Belt is more of an unknown to me. And out of those 3 I'd much rather that Belt and Huff pan out. I think that would bode very well for this offense.

I guess I vote for everyone panning out. That would be better. And really I don't care whose in the OF as long as they are kicking ass!

I wish I had your confidence in Pagan. He had a very good Torres-like 2010 and a pretty lousy Torres-like 2011. Although Pagan's 2010 wasn't as good and his 2011 wasn't as bad.

So here's hoping for 2010 Pagan and Huff and 2011 Melky!

And of course I'm with you, I don't care who gets it done as long as a few step up.

 

[iHATEdodgers]

I'm sorry, but I don't want a guy coming off a .330 avg, 18 HR, 200+ hit (one of five players in all of baseball), and 19 stolen base season to sit, just so Nate can play - I don't care how well he plays the wall in RF.

One more thing I forgot to mention... who is this guy who hit .330? 19 SBs cool how many times was he picked off?

Melky's line was .305 avg .339 obp (bleh) .809 OPS 18 HR 87 RBI 20 SB 10 CS

meanwhile Nate was .278 .326 (also bleh) .756 ops 9 HR 41 RBI 7 SB 4 CS in far fewer ABs

To me that career year is hardly an upgrade over Nate and when you mix in D Nate is a better choice for this team. Although Nate can't seem to stay healthy and Melky doesn't seem to have that problem. At the very least they are comparable.

Continuing on Melky hit .255 .274 .249 .273 the 4 years before last and during that time averaged about 8 HR 55 RBI 10 SB 2 CS all of which is very very very pedestrian. And most of that time he played in that little sandbox in NY - what happens when he has to hit in our park? You know what my guess is.

I hope he keeps on keeping on, and I hope last year wasn't a fluke but I'm not too optimistic.

He's only 27 it could be he just figured it out I hope so! Cuz if he has a year for us even close to last year we are in business.

 

[tzill]

Guys - You all realize that his stats last year were ALL career highs right? This is not his 5-year average. This is the very best that he has ever done. Common logic says that he will not repeat his 2011 numbers again. I don't have Bill James' projections, but I don't see how he tops his career stats. My guess is that he goes 14 HR 75 RBI, hits .285 with a .335 OBP. Those are not great numbers.

If Melky plays left, Belt and Huff will battle for 1B at-bats. that's not a good thing.

What the Giants need is:

1B - Huff / Posey
2B - Sanchez
3B - Panda
SS - Stamos
LF - Belt
CF Melky/Pagan
RF - Nate
C - Posey / Chez3

But that's just what I think.

Bill James, you, and I are all pretty close. I think he'll go 285/335/425 13 HR 65 RBI 15 SB. And I think that'll be just fine. Compared to what we got last year, slightly above league average is just fine. His OPS+ ought to be around 110.

Last year's OPS+ (200 ab min):

Ross 105
Nate 112
Torres 82
RoRo 74
AVERAGE 94

Melky is an upgrade over last year for SURE, if he approaches last year he's a tremendous upgrade.

C - Buster
1B - Huff/Belt
2B - Franchez
SS - Stamos
3B - Panda
LF - Melky
CF - Pagan
RF - Nate

 

[mistgl]

Bill James, you, and I are all pretty close. I think he'll go 285/335/425 13 HR 65 RBI 15 SB. And I think that'll be just fine. Compared to what we got last year, slightly above league average is just fine. His OPS+ ought to be around 110.

Last year's OPS+ (200 ab min):

Ross 105
Nate 112
Torres 82
RoRo 74
AVERAGE 94

Melky is an upgrade over last year for SURE, if he approaches last year he's a tremendous upgrade.

C - Buster
1B - Huff/Belt
2B - Franchez
SS - Stamos
3B - Panda
LF - Melky
CF - Pagan
RF - Nate

By no means do I hate Nate, but I'm just not that attached to him. He FINALLY started to show some promise last year, but that's after what, 4 years of playing time? I'll gladly eat my words if he turns into Nick Marakis, but I just don't see it happening.

 

[CameronFrye]

I would just MUCH prefer Nate to Pagan. Melky in center. Nate in right. Pagan off the bench. I don't see Pagan as an every day player. His OBP is pedestrian. He gets caught stealing almost 25% of his attempts, so his speed is not an asset. He's not so much of an upgrade defensively that he deserves a spot on the team and the guy has almost no power. What exactly does he give the team that Nate does not?

 

[tzill]

I would just MUCH prefer Nate to Pagan. Melky in center. Nate in right. Pagan off the bench. I don't see Pagan as an every day player. His OBP is pedestrian. He gets caught stealing almost 25% of his attempts, so his speed is not an asset. He's not so much of an upgrade defensively that he deserves a spot on the team and the guy has almost no power. What exactly does he give the team that Nate does not?

Angel projects out to about 280/335/400, or an OPS+ of about 106.

Nate projects to 280/330/430, or an OPS+ of about 110.

That would give me an OF (in OPS+) of 110/106/110, or an average of approx 109.

Last year was 94.

I don't know Huff is going to give you much more than 110, and his defense is worse than Pagan's.

 

[jingo]

Great comments by all.

I hope that that they all play well during ST. Your opinion on whether the following is possible and whether it could be successful or disastrous because of the players involved.

Based on previous seasons (I know, a small sample size), Nate plays 115-135 games.

Melky and Angel play 130-140 games.

That leaves 71-111 games in the outfield for Belt/Huff. Adding that to the games they will split at 1B, they have 233-273 games. There are at least two "unknowns" (outside of injuries):

Number of games Posey will be used at 1B.
Brent Pill.

 

[msgkings322]

Great comments by all.

I hope that that they all play well during ST. Your opinion on whether the following is possible and whether it could be successful or disastrous because of the players involved.

Based on previous seasons (I know, a small sample size), Nate plays 115-135 games.

Melky and Angel play 130-140 games.

That leaves 71-111 games in the outfield for Belt/Huff. Adding that to the games they will split at 1B, they have 233-273 games. There are at least two "unknowns" (outside of injuries):

Number of games Posey will be used at 1B.
Brent Pill.

Pretty good breakdown. Another unknown to me is how well say Huff plays. I think if he's sucking like 2011 by the All Star Break he'll be benched for good, maybe even sooner (mid June?). Conversely if he rakes Belt may have trouble getting many ABs.

 

[Stokes1931]

Pretty good breakdown. Another unknown to me is how well say Huff plays. I think if he's sucking like 2011 by the All Star Break he'll be benched for good, maybe even sooner (mid June?). Conversely if he rakes Belt may have trouble getting many ABs.

You mean Bochy and Sabey Sabes will not finish out the season with the Giants?

 

[tzill]

Great comments by all.

I hope that that they all play well during ST. Your opinion on whether the following is possible and whether it could be successful or disastrous because of the players involved.

Based on previous seasons (I know, a small sample size), Nate plays 115-135 games.

Melky and Angel play 130-140 games.

That leaves 71-111 games in the outfield for Belt/Huff. Adding that to the games they will split at 1B, they have 233-273 games. There are at least two "unknowns" (outside of injuries):

Number of games Posey will be used at 1B.
Brent Pill.

Isn't that Nick Lowerey's cousin?

 

[jingo]

Isn't that Nick Lowerey's cousin?

It's a mental block (Brandon and Brendan give me problems also). Age will do that to you - just ask my adult children. I don't know how many times I would like at one son and yell the other son's name (I didn't get punched as much as George Foreman but came to understand why he named all five sons George). Amazing that neither son thought their name was "Ewe" ("Ewe, go to your room" and "Ewe, get over here" and "Ewe, stop that", etc.).

 

[msgkings322]

You mean Bochy and Sabey Sabes will not finish out the season with the Giants?

I'm not sure I follow this one...if Huff sucks again, they'll fire Bochy and Sabean mid season?

 

[Heathbar012]

I'm not sure I follow this one...if Huff sucks again, they'll fire Bochy and Sabean mid season?

I think he is saying that the only way Huff gets benched is if the Giants have a different GM and Manager. Obviously, that isn't going to happen, and I think Boch and SabeySabes would be fine with Huff getting some splinters if he starts 2012 as poorly as 2011. This season better start soon.

 

[msgkings322]

I think he is saying that the only way Huff gets benched is if the Giants have a different GM and Manager. Obviously, that isn't going to happen, and I think Boch and SabeySabes would be fine with Huff getting some splinters if he starts 2012 as poorly as 2011. This season better start soon.

OK now I get it. But I'm with you, I don't care what Sbean or Bochy say in interviews today, if Huff kills us again like he did last year he's getting benched. They will give him plenty of time to play and figure it out, but they want to win games. And he's on his last year here so it's not like they have to worry about him being sad if he's benched.