NL East smack talk

[fightinfunbags]

They gave Nola an extra year like harpers deals

And Turner as well. Everybody knows that these deals on the back end will look poor. We are blessed to have ownership that doesn’t give a fuck and will just write another check. It’s really the TV deal they have that allows for them to do this.

 

[The Q]

I don’t even think the Castellanos deal hurts. He was an All Star last year and was a doubles machine. Walker for sure. He’s a guy making 18 mil AAV that can’t even be trusted to be given the ball in the playoffs over a dude like Christopher Sanchez who I like but if I’m being honest is pretty much the classic AAAA pitcher, too good for the minors but not quite a real big leaguer.

He was average last year in more innings than before

I think he’ll be fine

 

[fightinfunbags]

He was average last year in more innings than before

I think he’ll be fine

He won 15 games but wins is an overrated pitching stat. The major reason why they couldn’t give him the ball in the playoffs is because of two reasons:
1. It usually takes him 1-2 innings to get loose and ready to perform. Early in games his shit is flat and he gets touched early in 3 out of every 4 starts. Can’t have that in the playoffs.
2. His first half was much better than his second half and that’s been the MO on him in his career.

 

[The Q]

He won 15 games but wins is an overrated pitching stat. The major reason why they couldn’t give him the ball in the playoffs is because of two reasons:
1. It usually takes him 1-2 innings to get loose and ready to perform. Early in games his shit is flat and he gets touched early in 3 out of every 4 starts. Can’t have that in the playoffs.
2. His first half was much better than his second half and that’s been the MO on him in his career.

He was bad his last 5 starts throwing more innings than ever and hadn’t come close to that innings total since 2015

 

[WiggyRuss]

Snell is the classic pitching great in the last year of his deal scenario. He’s older than Nola as well and he never sees the 6th inning of games. Nola has a higher ERA because he’s a guy who gets pitched the 3rd time through the order. Blake Snell rarely if ever gets to see a lineup the third time through. He’s also a product of pitching in a pitchers park. No way that guy would have translated to Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies won’t be handcuffed by this deal as much as you want it to be so. The fatal error you make is that you project that every team has the same ownership as the Guardians that is cheap and doesn’t give a fuck about winning.

any one deal is not going to do it, but what has happened to certain big market teams is you pile on too many of these deals, i.e. Castellanos, Walker, Nola- and if they lose their abilities and you have 75 or so million not giving you much more than replacement level your flexibility starts to be lost.

I would feel better about Nola if out of the 3 years, 2 of his seasons were not somewhere close to mediocre. There is value in throwing a lot of innings, but a lot of innings at a 4.5 ERA is not particularly helpful if you are paying a guy to be an ace level type player.

Obviously I think Snell comes with a ton of risk, but he is younger and has better stuff. In the playoffs the ability to go deep into games means less and less with starting pitchers getting pulled even when they are pitching well for power bullpen arms that the batters have not seen 2 or 3 times already.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I’m curious what wheeler gets when his deal is up

that will be interesting. This is his last year. He is 33 right now. However, Wheeler still is pitching like an ace (if todays MLB where the term "ace" is pretty watered down).

I would expect him to get one of those high AAV deals for 3, max 4 years....like 3 years 90-100 million would be my guess- maybe 4 years 120.

With Abel and Painter due up in the next year or two, and Suarez and Sanchez still young and controllable, the Phils will have some cost-controlled young arms which means that I think they can sign Wheeler....Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, and some combination of the young guys and or a journeyman type is not prohibitively expensive for their spending habits.

Painter will almost certainly not pitch in the majors next year, but by 2025 he could be a real difference maker that makes little to no money which is a huge help. Abel obviously is better healthwise, but he is way less a sure talent than Painter. Sometimes the guys like Abel work out-sometimes they dont.

 

[fightinfunbags]

In a world where Lance Lynn gets 10 million a year, I will absolutely take Aaron Nola at 24.5 million

 

[WiggyRuss]

In a world where Lance Lynn gets 10 million a year, I will absolutely take Aaron Nola at 24.5 million

a decent point, but Lance Lynn is making 10 million- not 175 million. 2 years 50 is a much better deal than 7 years 175--- as you of course know- the risk comes with the length of the deal.

I dont know many pitchers that have pitched 15 years in the bigs without missing at least one or two seasons with significant injuries- not to mention decline.

 

[fightinfunbags]

a decent point, but Lance Lynn is making 10 million- not 175 million. 2 years 50 is a much better deal than 7 years 175--- as you of course know- the risk comes with the length of the deal.

I dont know many pitchers that have pitched 15 years in the bigs without missing at least one or two seasons with significant injuries- not to mention decline.

That’s cooked into all of this. The Phillies have gotten great production for years out of an underpaid player. It all evens out in the wash.

 

[The Q]

That’s cooked into all of this. The Phillies have gotten great production for years out of an underpaid player. It all evens out in the wash.

That’s not a great outlook though. Sometimes you just need to take your profits

 

[fightinfunbags]

That’s not a great outlook though. Sometimes you just need to take your profits

As long as it doesn’t impact future spending I’m good with it. If I felt like it would handcuff the team, I’d have a different outlook. As of right now, the Phil’s should be looking to build their farm. Dombrowski has them on a great start. Come 2029-30 the Phil’s will need production from cheap controllable players in their 26 man roster. They have some of that now. Stott, Bohm, Marsh, Rojas, Ranger Suarez are all very cheap but legit major league players.

 

[Cedrique]

In a world where Lance Lynn gets 10 million a year, I will absolutely take Aaron Nola at 24.5 million

That's not a terrible gamble since is 10 mil. for one year. He was awful last year but he was very good within the last couple years. If he somehow rebounds the cards may be able to flip him at the deadline, assuming they are not in the race themselves.

That being said, if you said he was retiring because of some weird injury, I'd believe that too since he was so bad last year.

 

[Xeliou66]

Braves sigh Adam Duvall again, this is his 3rd stint with us. Another solid power bat and more depth in the outfield, I like it. Can’t wait to watch the Braves again - we should have the best hitting in MLB. Less than 2 weeks until Opening Day!!

 

[navamind]

Braves sigh Adam Duvall again, this is his 3rd stint with us. Another solid power bat and more depth in the outfield, I like it. Can’t wait to watch the Braves again - we should have the best hitting in MLB. Less than 2 weeks until Opening Day!!

The only teams I could see scoring more runs are HOU/LAD, and I like the Braves lineup better. FanGraphs projects you guys to score 5.35 R/G (Dodgers are 5.11 and HOU are 5.05)

 

[Xeliou66]

Bravos/Phils season opener has been postponed until Friday due to rain. I can’t wait for the season to start and to see the Braves again

 

[Xeliou66]

My Bravos start the season in Philly today, Strider on the mound. I have high hopes for us this year, and I hope we can start the season by beating the team that knocked us out last year, the fucking Phillies

 

[fightinfunbags]

Phils will be 101-61 this year ending the Braves run of NL East crowns.

 

[Xeliou66]

Scoreless after 3 between Braves/Phillies

 

[Shanemansj13]

Phils will be 101-61 this year ending the Braves run of NL East crowns.

I think Braves fans will take that if they win in the playoffs. Winning the NL East seems like their downfall and resting before the postseason. Two seasons in a row.

 

[Xeliou66]

Adam Duvall with a 2 RBI pinch hit double to tie the game in the 7th!! Welcome back to the Bravos Adam Duvall!!