NL East smack talk

[catman]

Looks like the Red Sox might be in her future.

 

[eaglesnut]

Marlins and GM Kim Ng part ways.
Marlins extended the mutual option to her, but she declined.

Red Sox?
Yankees?

 

[fightinfunbags]

Nola is back with Phillies

 

[catman]

Nola is back with Phillies

Good to see this. He belongs in Philly.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Good to see this. He belongs in Philly.

that is a long contract for a guy who will be 31 in June, has pitched a ton of innings, and really was not that great for most of the season. He is being paid very well- had a 4.46 ERA last year and a lot of his metrics were down.

i understand wanting to keep him- especially for the short term, but if this comes at the expense of getting a different starting pitcher I think they might have made a mistake. He has to be a lot better than he was last season for this to work out.

he was good in 2022, but he was even worse in 2021 with an ERA of 4.63 then he was in 2023.

While it is good that he is a workhorse type guy- that also is a double edged sword in that he has thrown a ton of innings in his career already as well. I get why he wanted a 7 year deal for security.

We see so often that giving a pitcher that type of deal, especially one that has not been particularly good 2 of the last 3 seasons, is a big time risk. I do not think it will be very long before this looks like a bad contract. If they get a World Series out of it and he is a significant contributor in the short term they wont care- but if they dont and he struggles- they will have wished they spent the dollars elsewhere.

 

[The Q]

that is a long contract for a guy who will be 31 in June, has pitched a ton of innings, and really was not that great for most of the season. He is being paid very well- had a 4.46 ERA last year and a lot of his metrics were down.

i understand wanting to keep him- especially for the short term, but if this comes at the expense of getting a different starting pitcher I think they might have made a mistake. He has to be a lot better than he was last season for this to work out.

This is what dombrowski does

He’ll take the profit and be gone for the mess of the turner Harper and Nola deals

 

[WiggyRuss]

This is what dombrowski does

He’ll take the profit and be gone for the mess of the turner Harper and Nola deals

I know Snell has consistency and innings issues, but I think he might've been the better target- that, or if the goal was to really go for it, trading for a Burnes or Glasnow.

Nola has been pretty mediocre 2 of the last 3 years....Phils have money but, like your Red Sox, you get too many of these long term deals that turn bad they can handcuff you. Sox are finally starting to get out from under it

 

[WiggyRuss]

This is what dombrowski does

He’ll take the profit and be gone for the mess of the turner Harper and Nola deals

for him to be worth it at all he needs to get his ERA AT LEAST under 4.00, stay healthy and pitch well in the playoffs- not sure how realistic that is based off the last couple years and the typical pitcher track record with these type of deals.

on the other hand pitching is always at a premium- especially guys that are work horses- so we shall see. With how bullpens are used now-a-days, especially in the playoffs, getting a guy with better stuff might have been the better call- even if he doesn't throw as many innings each year.

 

[The Q]

I know Snell has consistency and innings issues, but I think he might've been the better target- that, or if the goal was to really go for it, trading for a Burnes or Glasnow.

Nola has been pretty mediocre 2 of the last 3 years....Phils have money but, like your Red Sox, you get too many of these long term deals that turn bad they can handcuff you. Sox are finally starting to get out from under it

Snell had a lot of luck

And if the league cuts down to 12 or 11 arms per roster….


Guys who can soak up even decent volume are going to be more valuable

 

[fightinfunbags]

that is a long contract for a guy who will be 31 in June, has pitched a ton of innings, and really was not that great for most of the season. He is being paid very well- had a 4.46 ERA last year and a lot of his metrics were down.

i understand wanting to keep him- especially for the short term, but if this comes at the expense of getting a different starting pitcher I think they might have made a mistake. He has to be a lot better than he was last season for this to work out.

he was good in 2022, but he was even worse in 2021 with an ERA of 4.63 then he was in 2023.

While it is good that he is a workhorse type guy- that also is a double edged sword in that he has thrown a ton of innings in his career already as well. I get why he wanted a 7 year deal for security.

We see so often that giving a pitcher that type of deal, especially one that has not been particularly good 2 of the last 3 seasons, is a big time risk. I do not think it will be very long before this looks like a bad contract. If they get a World Series out of it and he is a significant contributor in the short term they wont care- but if they dont and he struggles- they will have wished they spent the dollars elsewhere.

You still can’t make the adjustment because you root for small market fluke trash. This contract matches the window for Harper/Turner/Schwarber/Wheeler. At $25 million AAV this isn’t going to be a “bad contract” because there is no salary cap and the Phillies ownership is committed in terms of spending money. Bad contracts keep you from making other needed moves . This won’t get in the way of their goals. Additionally, Nola isn’t a 97-98 guy. He has 5-6 pitches he’s comfortable throwing. He changes speeds and he locates. That’s his game. Those kinds of pitchers that aren’t high velocity dependent usually age well. If you’re looking for a bad contract on the Phillies pitching staff that would be Tijuan Walker. Walker gets AAV of 18 million while Nola gets 24.5. To think that you get Nola for only 7 mil more per year is great .

 

[fightinfunbags]

This is what dombrowski does

He’ll take the profit and be gone for the mess of the turner Harper and Nola deals

He’s done a nice job with the Phillies farm. From what we heard about Dombrowski, people said he would butcher the farm. He’s actually done a solid job of retooling it with talent.

 

[The Q]

He’s done a nice job with the Phillies farm. From what we heard about Dombrowski, people said he would butcher the farm. He’s actually done a solid job of retooling it with talent.

He is smart in who he deals

Best prospect he ever traded (mlb success wise) is probsbly Willy Adames

 

[fightinfunbags]

I know Snell has consistency and innings issues, but I think he might've been the better target- that, or if the goal was to really go for it, trading for a Burnes or Glasnow.

Snell is the classic pitching great in the last year of his deal scenario. He’s older than Nola as well and he never sees the 6th inning of games. Nola has a higher ERA because he’s a guy who gets pitched the 3rd time through the order. Blake Snell rarely if ever gets to see a lineup the third time through. He’s also a product of pitching in a pitchers park. No way that guy would have translated to Citizens Bank Park.

Nola has been pretty mediocre 2 of the last 3 years....Phils have money but, like your Red Sox, you get too many of these long term deals that turn bad they can handcuff you. Sox are finally starting to get out from under it

Phillies won’t be handcuffed by this deal as much as you want it to be so. The fatal error you make is that you project that every team has the same ownership as the Guardians that is cheap and doesn’t give a fuck about winning.

 

[The Q]

Snell is the classic pitching great in the last year of his deal scenario. He’s older than Nola as well and he never sees the 6th inning of games. Nola has a higher ERA because he’s a guy who gets pitched the 3rd time through the order. Blake Snell rarely if ever gets to see a lineup the third time through. He’s also a product of pitching in a pitchers park. No way that guy would have translated to Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies won’t be handcuffed by this deal as much as you want it to be so. The fatal error you make is that you project that every team has the same ownership as the Guardians that is cheap and doesn’t give a fuck about winning.

I’m curious what wheeler gets when his deal is up

 

[fightinfunbags]

for him to be worth it at all he needs to get his ERA AT LEAST under 4.00, stay healthy and pitch well in the playoffs- not sure how realistic that is based off the last couple years and the typical pitcher track record with these type of deals.

Nola has pitched very well in the playoffs the last two years. For every 3 times he’s taken the ball in the last two playoffs he’s pitched great in 2 of 3.

on the other hand pitching is always at a premium- especially guys that are work horses- so we shall see. With how bullpens are used now-a-days, especially in the playoffs, getting a guy with better stuff might have been the better call- even if he doesn't throw as many innings each year.

Who is that guy? Sonny Gray? Nope. Snell? Nope. The only FA starting pitcher on the market better than Nola may be the 25 year old kid from Japan.

 

[The Q]

Snell is the classic pitching great in the last year of his deal scenario. He’s older than Nola as well and he never sees the 6th inning of games. Nola has a higher ERA because he’s a guy who gets pitched the 3rd time through the order. Blake Snell rarely if ever gets to see a lineup the third time through. He’s also a product of pitching in a pitchers park. No way that guy would have translated to Citizens Bank Park.

Phillies won’t be handcuffed by this deal as much as you want it to be so. The fatal error you make is that you project that every team has the same ownership as the Guardians that is cheap and doesn’t give a fuck about winning.

The castellanos and walker deals hurt more

But walker is still probsbly moveable to some extent

 

[fightinfunbags]

I’m curious what wheeler gets when his deal is up

He’s next up. Word is Phils won’t let him get to FA. They’re going to get it done this winter. The 25 mil AAV for Nola was huge as it translates to the Wheeler renegotiation. If Nola got 30 AAV you would have seen Wheeler command 35-40 AAV depending upon length of the deal. I think now Wheeler gets something like 4 years 120 or 5 years 150.

 

[The Q]

He’s next up. Word is Phils won’t let him get to FA. They’re going to get it done this winter. The 25 mil AAV for Nola was huge as it translates to the Wheeler renegotiation. If Nola got 30 AAV you would have seen Wheeler command 35-40 AAV depending upon length of the deal. I think now Wheeler gets something like 4 years 120 or 5 years 150.

They gave Nola an extra year like harpers deals

 

[fightinfunbags]

The castellanos and walker deals hurt more

But walker is still probsbly moveable to some extent

I don’t even think the Castellanos deal hurts. He was an All Star last year and was a doubles machine. Walker for sure. He’s a guy making 18 mil AAV that can’t even be trusted to be given the ball in the playoffs over a dude like Christopher Sanchez who I like but if I’m being honest is pretty much the classic AAAA pitcher, too good for the minors but not quite a real big leaguer.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Snell had a lot of luck

And if the league cuts down to 12 or 11 arms per roster….


Guys who can soak up even decent volume are going to be more valuable

Snell is a Petco product as well. Can you imagine him pitching in that bandbox at Citizens Bank Park? Yikes. If Phil’s didn’t sign Nola the next move should have been a trade for Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease. I’m getting greedy. If he can be had, I’m still trading for Burnes this off season. The Brewers aren’t a serious organization and they shit all over Burnes in arbitration. He’s never resigning with them now. Phil’s have to swoop in there with 3-4 prospects.