NL Central Smack Talk 2014

[Darkstone42]

LOL...you forget that Craig takes Tranny's place in RF...


Kozma was the worst hitting regular starter in MLB last year. He is replaced with Peralta. Carpenter replaces the fading Freese, Wong comes in at 2B and is high OBP player from MiLB. Adams gets a full year at 1B (131 OPS+ and 17 HR's in half a years AB's off the bench!) while Craig moves to RF, the best RBI machine in the game.
That is an improvement over last years squad and they don't have to be this monster RISP team like last years historical mark...just a bit above average...around 280. T
They have multiple options in the OF with Bourjos/Jay/Piscotty/Grichuk...2 are starting/platooning OF'ers that could start on most teams, and the best LF in the game in Matt Holiday!
Add that they have pitching coming out their ass.
Beltran was great for half a season each of his two seasons, and a beast in the playoffs.
This is a young, talented, maturing team with a great balance of power, speed, defensive skill, pitching...it's not even close in the NL Central.

So improvements overall

The only Achilles heel...if Yadi goes down


Keep fooling yourselves that they aren't the class of the NL Central, if not the entire NL!

Adams is more directly replacing Beltran than Craig, realistically, since Craig, when healthy, was in the lineup more often than not last year. Adams is a less-known commodity than is Craig, so regression from last year's numbers are possible, and even so, Beltran was the better hitter last year. So ultimately, the Cardinals did downgrade their lineup overall, but since Peralta's a better hitter than Kozma, they made the lineup deeper, which somewhat offsets the loss in net value.

That is to say the Cardinals reduced their total talent level, but spread that smaller talent over more players. Instead of having one guy who pulls through most of the time and one who virtually never pull through, they have two players who pull through some of the time.

Overall, I expect the Cardinals to be worse offensively this year than they were last year. That's not to say they will be bad (they will be quite good, and among the best), but I think the above effect will be a wash on their output, with most of the regression the result of a lowering of their RISP numbers to more typical numbers for good offenses.

Wong, though, is a wildcard. Will his game translate at the Major League level? He's unproven but talented. I think he's got an upside in excess of Freese, who he is effectively replacing, but there is less Major League information to go on to make a prediction on his performance.

The other question is how good will the young pitching be next year? Will Wacha keep up his improved velocity and the corresponding strikeout rates, or will those two things regress this year? Will Joe Kelly continue to strand batters at the ridiculous rate he posted last year (i.e. is stranding runners a skill of his), or will those numbers regress and the large number of baserunners he tends to allow start to cross home plate at a greater rate? I think Wacha is more likely to keep succeeding than is Kelly, but we shall see. And a regression from either would not be terrible for the Cardinals in terms of W-L record anyway. It could, however, make the Division race closer than we seem to be predicting here.

Ultimately, the Cardinals are the deepest and most talented team in the Central, but this is baseball, and in baseball things happen, and while we are typically pretty good at predicting those things, we don't get it all right. So if you were to run an ideal simulation of a 162-game season, the Cardinals would win the Central, but a real season is not an ideal simulation, and that, as the arbitrary they say, is why they play the games.

In closing, you should probably not start your arguments with "LOL."

 

[Moneyman]

The lineup plays if Ramirez stays healthy, and that's kind of a big if lately. Even so, it's at least on par with, if not better than, the Pirates and Reds offenses, although there's a serious upside (another if) to the Pirates offense due to the density of young players.

The starting pitching, though, is pretty questionable, I think. Garza's a number 2, Lohse is a number 3, Gallardo a borderline number 3, Estrada a borderline number 4, and Peralta a number 5. That's not an especially strong rotation, and the upside is also pretty limited. And they'll be pitching in that bandbox in Milwaukee, which doesn't help, either, even though they should get some boost from their offense at home.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them compete, but I think they need more to work out favorably than the teams who finished ahead of them last year do.

Yeah, a lot of their success is going to depend on them staying healthy (unlike last year where they lost Lucroy for 2 months, Braun/A-Ram/Hart hurt, Estrada was missing games off and on etc)

I would say Marco Estrada is at least a #3 pitcher if he's healthy.

Last 2 years:

2012: 138.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, 9.30 K/9 1.89 BB/9 3.1 WAR
2013: 128.0 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 8.30 K/9 2.04 BB/9 1.6 WAR

His problem has been staying healthy, but when healthy, he's a very good pitcher. Almost 9 K/9, low walk rate, and good secondary stats.

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah, a lot of their success is going to depend on them staying healthy (unlike last year where they lost Lucroy for 2 months, Braun/A-Ram/Hart hurt, Estrada was missing games off and on etc)

I would say Marco Estrada is at least a #3 pitcher if he's healthy.

Last 2 years:

2012: 138.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 3.48 xFIP, 9.30 K/9 1.89 BB/9 3.1 WAR
2013: 128.0 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 8.30 K/9 2.04 BB/9 1.6 WAR

His problem has been staying healthy, but when healthy, he's a very good pitcher. Almost 9 K/9, low walk rate, and good secondary stats.

I think I looked at the wrong Estrada by accident. Yeah, his number are definitely #3 type, with an upside of #2. But his walk rates are much better the last two years in the Majors than they ever were in the minors, and I will be interested to see if that continues. His strikeout rates have dropped a bit (as you might expect), but his walk rate did, too (which you wouldn't expect). Did your Major League pitching coach tweak his delivery or something to improve control?

He also has a bit of an elevated HR/9 (also lower at the Major League level than much of his minor league track record), but that could be a result of the ballpark in which he throws half his games.

 

[Moneyman]

Here's a great article on Estrada that you might like:

Marco Estrada: America?s Sleeper | Disciples of Uecker

Some tidbits from it:

The trouble that Estrada runs into isn’t hidden: his fastball barely touches 90 mph, he gives up a lot of homers, and pitches in a homer-friendly park. In 2013, the majority of his poor starts came at home and, for this reason, his home/road splits draw your attention–and not for good reasons. Against 222 batters faced at Miller Park, he gave up 14 home runs, a 6.3 percent HR% and 2.50 HR/9; on the road, it was a completely different Marco, as 5 of 290 (1.7 percent) of hitters took him deep, for a below league-average HR/9 of 0.58. Because of his tendency to give up home runs at home, he had a FIP of 5.39 at Miller Park compared to a 2.87 mark when pitching on the road.

Despite the large run differential between home and road, Estrada didn’t actually pitch significantly worse at home. His K% was 23.9 and BB% was 5.4 at home, compared to 22.4 and 5.9 on the road. His home runs allowed were significantly higher at home, but he wasn’t at all helped out by luck, exampled by the .348 BABIP and 21.5 HR/FB (compared to his career mark of 10.3).

Disregarding his high home run numbers at home and focusing on his higher strikeout totals and smaller BB%, Estrada’s 3.54 xFIP at home last season bests his 3.68 road xFIP. If you buy into the belief that his high home run rates were a strong deviation what to expect, then there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic about Estrada. Strikeouts and walks are typically things about a pitcher that don’t fluctuate too much from year-to-year because they’re the two most controllable parts of pitching. Estrada, as we saw in the chart, is elite in these regards. He’s not an upper-tier starter yet, but I’m cautiously optimistic enough to say that he’s close.

In the second half last season, Estrada started putting everything together. His K% went up and his BB% and HR% went down–three signs that he is ready to emerge as a reliable, season-long option for the Brewers. Not only does he have the chance to be one of the most improved pitchers in 2014, but he also could finish with one of the best changeups in all of baseball.

Last season, according to Fangraphs, Estrada’s change was the sixth-most valuable in baseball, being worth 13.1 runs. It’s a good one and the key to his success. Take a look at the whiffs/swing on his change from last season, per Brooks Baseball.

In September–Estrada’s best month–he increased his changeup usage and his whiff percentages were the highest of any month for all his pitches combined. The majority of swings on changeups came on pitches down in the zone, which is just what he wants. Only 0.6 percent of the changeups he threw left the park. 22.77 % were whiffs and only 22.57% were put into play, of which nearly 10% were ground balls.

Where Estrada ran into trouble last season was with his fastball. If he can cut down on the 14 home runs and 12.96 HR/(FB+LD) on his fastball, who knows how good Estrada can be?

 

[Darkstone42]

Here's a great article on Estrada that you might like:

Marco Estrada: America?s Sleeper | Disciples of Uecker

Some tidbits from it:

The trouble that Estrada runs into isn’t hidden: his fastball barely touches 90 mph, he gives up a lot of homers, and pitches in a homer-friendly park. In 2013, the majority of his poor starts came at home and, for this reason, his home/road splits draw your attention–and not for good reasons. Against 222 batters faced at Miller Park, he gave up 14 home runs, a 6.3 percent HR% and 2.50 HR/9; on the road, it was a completely different Marco, as 5 of 290 (1.7 percent) of hitters took him deep, for a below league-average HR/9 of 0.58. Because of his tendency to give up home runs at home, he had a FIP of 5.39 at Miller Park compared to a 2.87 mark when pitching on the road.

Despite the large run differential between home and road, Estrada didn’t actually pitch significantly worse at home. His K% was 23.9 and BB% was 5.4 at home, compared to 22.4 and 5.9 on the road. His home runs allowed were significantly higher at home, but he wasn’t at all helped out by luck, exampled by the .348 BABIP and 21.5 HR/FB (compared to his career mark of 10.3).

Disregarding his high home run numbers at home and focusing on his higher strikeout totals and smaller BB%, Estrada’s 3.54 xFIP at home last season bests his 3.68 road xFIP. If you buy into the belief that his high home run rates were a strong deviation what to expect, then there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic about Estrada. Strikeouts and walks are typically things about a pitcher that don’t fluctuate too much from year-to-year because they’re the two most controllable parts of pitching. Estrada, as we saw in the chart, is elite in these regards. He’s not an upper-tier starter yet, but I’m cautiously optimistic enough to say that he’s close.

In the second half last season, Estrada started putting everything together. His K% went up and his BB% and HR% went down–three signs that he is ready to emerge as a reliable, season-long option for the Brewers. Not only does he have the chance to be one of the most improved pitchers in 2014, but he also could finish with one of the best changeups in all of baseball.

Last season, according to Fangraphs, Estrada’s change was the sixth-most valuable in baseball, being worth 13.1 runs. It’s a good one and the key to his success. Take a look at the whiffs/swing on his change from last season, per Brooks Baseball.

In September–Estrada’s best month–he increased his changeup usage and his whiff percentages were the highest of any month for all his pitches combined. The majority of swings on changeups came on pitches down in the zone, which is just what he wants. Only 0.6 percent of the changeups he threw left the park. 22.77 % were whiffs and only 22.57% were put into play, of which nearly 10% were ground balls.

Where Estrada ran into trouble last season was with his fastball. If he can cut down on the 14 home runs and 12.96 HR/(FB+LD) on his fastball, who knows how good Estrada can be?

How good is his fastball control? Almost every pitcher has to throw it a lot, regardless of the quality of his other pitches. Depending on his fastball control, I could see teams figuring him out a bit this year and getting his strikeout rates back down and walk rates back up to where they tended to be in the minors, as well as jumping the home run rates.

If he really commands it well, though, that concern could all but disappear. A great changeup is useful, obviously, but teams finding ways to better tee off on his fastball could really reduce its effectiveness.

Soft-tossers can obviously be effective, it's just weird to see one who strikes out so many guys.

 

[scoutyjones2]

Full time Adams, full time Peralta, no Kozma, and the addition of Wong and Bourjous/Jon Jay. And the half year's of Tranny are gone. This team is better offensively and defensively. Run away with the NL Central. Best offense in the NL last year and it will be again. Not to mention the top NL prospect rehabbing half the year in AAA...Oscar Taveras. LOL, dream on if anybody is catching STL.


Deep, young, rich farm system...top RBI man, top LF, best catcher, top 3 rotation, enhanced production at SS, more speed, better D...it's all good. Keep dreaming if you don't want to wake up and smell the roses.

 

[Nosferatu]

1. Cardinals
2. Pirates
3. Reds
4. Brewers
5. Cubs

 

[StanMarsh51]

Full time Adams, full time Peralta, no Kozma, and the addition of Wong and Bourjous/Jon Jay. And the half year's of Tranny are gone. This team is better offensively and defensively. Run away with the NL Central. Best offense in the NL last year and it will be again. Not to mention the top NL prospect rehabbing half the year in AAA...Oscar Taveras. LOL, dream on if anybody is catching STL.


Deep, young, rich farm system...top RBI man, top LF, best catcher, top 3 rotation, enhanced production at SS, more speed, better D...it's all good. Keep dreaming if you don't want to wake up and smell the roses.

You don't seem to be able (or purposely ignoring) to dispute any of the arguments against your claim that the Cards are better offensively....you just seem to keep repeating yourself.

-You haven't disputed that Adams' OPS+ may have been inflated due to him facing 84% righties
-You haven't disputed that Carpenter's 2013 could be difficult to repeat
-You haven't disputed that Wong's minors OBP isn't that impressive for the leagues he played in
-You haven't disputed that Peralta doesn't hit 'well' every year, so it's not a lock that he has a great year
-You haven't disputed that Bourjos' offense so far in the majors hasn't been anything noteworthy

You just keep making blanket statements, and somehow think that makes your arguments true...

 

[scoutyjones2]

You don't seem to be able (or purposely ignoring) to dispute any of the arguments against your claim that the Cards are better offensively....you just seem to keep repeating yourself.

-You haven't disputed that Adams' OPS+ may have been inflated due to him facing 84% righties
-You haven't disputed that Carpenter's 2013 could be difficult to repeat
-You haven't disputed that Wong's minors OBP isn't that impressive for the leagues he played in
-You haven't disputed that Peralta doesn't hit 'well' every year, so it's not a lock that he has a great year
-You haven't disputed that Bourjos' offense so far in the majors hasn't been anything noteworthy

You just keep making blanket statements, and somehow think that makes your arguments true...

OK...let me type this more slowly for you...

Adams, as a rookie, hitting only part time, posted a 131 OPS+. He raked playing full time in September when Craig was injured: 315/344/609/952...got better when he played. Oh yeah, and this is what he did against righties for the year (1/3rd of his AB's)! 295/356/520/876...that is fantastic and will only improve

Carp was a huge surprise, and yes, it will be difficult to duplicate but dropping down from an MVP candidate at a new IF position and going back to his natural IF position of 3B should see him be all star like again...but it is more than likely he will regress, but not significantly, I believe

Wongs MiLB numbers for OBP, and at 2B are impressive: 3 seasons in the minors (A-AAA) 301/365/446/811...he starts slow in every league he enters, then goes to town...I expect him to bring it this year. If not, the Cards are a team built for depth...there is Mark Ellis who can platoon against Lefties, wong gets righties.

Peralta puts up 15-20 HR's every other year, Kozma posted a 54 OPS+! LOL...can't be worse than that, and Peralta was only behind one other SS in MLB in SLG...Tulo...I am the least worried about that! I'll take his Detroit average 4 year line for a SS anytime: 275/332/433/764...quality SS is an MLB wide problem. Cards got the best one on the market without losing anything!

Bourjos is only a question if he can remain off IR...that is my only concern, and yet the Cards have Jon jay available and his career 356 OBP. Bourjos improves the D and his speed is much needed for a team not known for HR's, but excellent OBP, RISP and SLG%. Cards fleeced the Halos by getting Grichuk in the deal for a slappy 3B in Freese, and a horrid reliever in Salas.

It's all good...glad to have some smack talk!

 

[StanMarsh51]

Adams, as a rookie, hitting only part time, posted a 131 OPS+. He raked playing full time in September when Craig was injured: 315/344/609/952...got better when he played. Oh yeah, and this is what he did against righties for the year (1/3rd of his AB's)! 295/356/520/876...that is fantastic and will only improve

What are you talking about 1/3 of his at bats? Adams had 244 at bats vs righties and 52 vs lefties....that's more like 80+% of his at bats vs righties, which won't happen in 2014 as a full-time player. He had a .654 OPS vs lefties, and if he gets 40-45% of his at bats and doesn't hit them that well, what would it do to his overall rate stats?

And he "will only improve" because why? I can give you a long list of players that didn't improve beyond their 1st year. You can never presume when someone has no track record. Did Allen Craig's OPS improve beyond his .917 OPS in 2011 for example?

Carp was a huge surprise, and yes, it will be difficult to duplicate but dropping down from an MVP candidate at a new IF position and going back to his natural IF position of 3B should see him be all star like again...but it is more than likely he will regress, but not significantly, I believe

Maybe, who knows? It seems some projections are prediction his OPS drops a good 70ish points this year
St. Louis Cardinals 2014 VEB Community Projection Results: Matt Carpenter - Viva El Birdos

Wongs MiLB numbers for OBP, and at 2B are impressive: 3 seasons in the minors (A-AAA) 301/365/446/811...he starts slow in every league he enters, then goes to town...I expect him to bring it this year. If not, the Cards are a team built for depth...there is Mark Ellis who can platoon against Lefties, wong gets righties.

Once again...maybe, but who really knows? Maybe the hardest thing to predict is a prospect's success, given how many struggle at the major league level for years.

Bourjos is only a question if he can remain off IR...that is my only concern

So his .306 career OBP isn't a concern? He's great defensively, but if he can't get on base nor hit for power, what good is he other than a backup outfielder?

 

[Mitziman]

I think the better question is...who out of the NL Central will be the next World Series Champion? The answer...

CUBS Baby!...2017

 

[HammerDown]

LOL @ the Cubs beating the Cards.

 

[HammerDown]

again

 

[Microwahevo]

Get it out!!!

 

[packerzrule]

Surprised by the performance of the Brewers pitching so far - especially Peralta.

Not too shabby for a #5

 

[Blaise Winter]

Haven't you heard? They're all #3-5s - barely worthy of starting in the first place.


scoutyjones is a typically insufferable Cards fan. We'll be seeing him again if/when the Cards hit first place, but not sooner.

 

[packerzrule]

Haven't you heard? They're all #3-5s - barely worthy of starting in the first place.


scoutyjones is a typically insufferable Cards fan. We'll be seeing him again if/when the Cards hit first place, but not sooner.

He's a douche castle. Fuck him.

 

[HammerDown]

Johnny Cueto is on fire. Too bad the Padres had to face him. CG/SO 3-hitter.

 

[navamind]

Johnny Cueto is on fire. Too bad the Padres had to face him. CG/SO 3-hitter.

Cueto seems poised to have a career year.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Cueto seems poised to have a career year.

If he can stay off of the DL...