NL Central Smack Talk 2014

[Darkstone42]

Reds just lose Choo in the lineup, and if Bham can find away on base,which he has done in Spring (That's not saying much though) I think Billy Hamilton is better for this club,In many different ways. Other then Reds just losing Choo. Here is what Pirates lost.
Justin Mornue
Marlon Byrd
Garrett Jones
Michael Mckenry
John Buck
This is a lot of loses, The management knows that there gonna have problems, which is why Pirates was talking to Kendrys Morales.

End of season lineups should not be compared to start of season lineups. Even so, the only loss on that list is Byrd, and that's assuming last year wasn't a fluke, which isn't an entirely fair assumption itself.

Position by position, 2013-2014, start of the season.

SP
1. Burnett - Cole (downgrade)
2. Rodriguez - Liriano (upgrade)
3. McDonald - Rodriguez (upgrade)
4. Locke - Morton (upgrade)
5. Sanchez - Cumpton/Volquez/Locke (upgrade)

Last year we got Liriano and Morton back from injury and lost Wandy to it. Ultimately, all three of those players have a chance, at least, to add more value this year over last. Burnett is the only loss in the rotation, but more of Liriano and Morton could make up for that, and I expect Cole to largely replace Burnett's productivity this year.

Taillon will replace Cole as the mid-season call-up this year, and he might actually have even more raw talent than Cole does. Pitching should be no worse than a slight downgrade with a chance at being a fairly large upgrade from last year to this. The end of season rotation (barring injury) should compare something like this:

1. Burnett - Cole (downgrade/wash)
2. Liriano - Liriano (wash)
3. Cole - Taillon (wash)
4. Locke - Rodriguez (upgrade)
5. Morton - Morton (wash)

The bullpen is essentially the same, except that some of last year's guys may be pushed out by guys outperforming them.

Now for the lineup:
C Martin - Martin (wash)
1B Sanchez/Jones - Sanchez/Lambo, Snider, Ishikawa, McGuinnes, etc. (wash)
2B Walker - Walker (wash)
3B Alvarez - Alvarez (wash)
SS Mercer - Barmes (slight upgrade)
LF Marte - Marte (wash/slight upgrade)
CF McCutchen - McCutchen (wash)
RF Tabata/Snider - Tabata/Snider (wash)

The only changes are at first base, where Jones was the ultimately sucky left-handed half of a platoon, and will be replaced by one of several guys who are unknown, but have very high probabilities of replacing Jones's sucky production anyway, and at shortstop, were Mercer is definitely better offensively, but a bit worse defensively, than Barmes.

We also have an internal option at right field due for a mid-season call-up in Polanco, who will, if nothing else, be elite defensively. But the guy knows how to control the zone and get on base, so he could actually provide the pure leadoff hitter we've been missing.

We are also in a position to deal for another first baseman if necessary, like Davis, Smoak, or Carp, with our depth at bullpen.

Snider has also looked very good this spring. He's much fitter this year, and hopefully it pays dividends.

Lambo hit 31 home runs in the minors last year, so there's power potential there. Whether it translates is a question mark, though.

Ultimately, though, this year's opening day roster is better than last year's. We have better guys poised to get more playing time than they did last year. The team, talent-wise, should improve.

But since they played a bit over their heads last year, how much of that improvement in talent will be mitigated by regression? That's yet to be seen. However, if Lambo or Snider pulls through, or if we trade for a guy like Carp, after the additions of Taillon and Polanco in the middle of summer, I think the team will be better than they were at the end of last year.

 

[scoutyjones2]

LOL...anybody NOT picking the Cards is just being silly. The team is stacked with starting talent in pitching, offense and defense. Enough to cover most injuries, save Molina...he goes down, all bets are off. If the Cards don't win this division handly, then I will be disappointed. The Pierats were an aberration last year and won't get away with it this year...I suspect the Red/Brewcrew/Pierats vie for 2-4 and don't make the playoffs at all

 

[navamind]

Reds just lose Choo in the lineup, and if Bham can find away on base,which he has done in Spring (That's not saying much though) I think Billy Hamilton is better for this club,In many different ways. Other then Reds just losing Choo. Here is what Pirates lost.
Justin Mornue
Marlon Byrd
Garrett Jones
Michael Mckenry
John Buck
This is a lot of loses, The management knows that there gonna have problems, which is why Pirates was talking to Kendrys Morales.

yes, it's going to be real hard replacing 1B/corner OFs with ~100 OPS+ and a backup catcher that had an OPS+ around 73 last year.

Choo had a .423 OBP last year. Hamilton had a .350 OBP in the minors.

LOL...anybody NOT picking the Cards is just being silly. The team is stacked with starting talent in pitching, offense and defense. Enough to cover most injuries, save Molina...he goes down, all bets are off. If the Cards don't win this division handly, then I will be disappointed. The Pierats were an aberration last year and won't get away with it this year...I suspect the Red/Brewcrew/Pierats vie for 2-4 and don't make the playoffs at all

Stfu.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

yes, it's going to be real hard replacing 1B/corner OFs with ~100 OPS+ and a backup catcher that had an OPS+ around 73 last year.

Choo had a .423 OBP last year. Hamilton had a .350 OBP in the minors.

It was a 310 OBP at AAA if I recall...

 

[navamind]

It was a 310 OBP at AAA if I recall...

It was .308 in AAA last year. He has a career .350 OBP in 2258 minor league plate appearances. A little young for those levels, but even then, I'd be shocked if he came anywhere close to a .423 OBP.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It was .308 in AAA last year. He has a career .350 OBP in 2258 minor league plate appearances. A little young for those levels, but even then, I'd be shocked if he came anywhere close to a .423 OBP.

Darn that .002 difference!!!

 

[scoutyjones2]

yes, it's going to be real hard replacing 1B/corner OFs with ~100 OPS+ and a backup catcher that had an OPS+ around 73 last year.

Choo had a .423 OBP last year. Hamilton had a .350 OBP in the minors.



Stfu.

LOL...cmon, the Cards have gotten better this off season thru acquisitions for starting SS and CF and minor league depth, along with young, talented pitching by the bucketfulls, getting even older and wiser!

 

[Fountain City Blues]

LOL...cmon, the Cards have gotten better this off season thru acquisitions for starting SS and CF and minor league depth, along with young, talented pitching by the bucketfulls, getting even older and wiser!

Because that Avg with RISP is so sustainable, sure...

 

[navamind]

I don't disagree about the Cards winning the division (I've been picking them this year) and they have some incredible pitching depth. You just sound obnoxious.

Pirates and Reds will regress, but I think the Pirates offense will be better this year. They should still have a good defense and two of the best framers (Martin and Stewart) in the league.

 

[scoutyjones2]

I don't disagree about the Cards winning the division (I've been picking them this year) and they have some incredible pitching depth. You just sound obnoxious.

Pirates and Reds will regress, but I think the Pirates offense will be better this year. They should still have a good defense and two of the best framers (Martin and Stewart) in the league.

Yeah, I am obnoxious because I don't tell other posters to "stfu." And you agree that they win the division.
You sound bitter and moronic.
The Cards didn't regress as a team like the rest of the division in the off-season...it got better offensively and defensively!
The Cards payroll even went down.
The smoke and mirrors that the Butt Pierats used last year are gone. Cincy got worse and the Scrubs are the Scrubs. I suspect the Brew Crew are going to finish a distant 2nd
Cards are the class of that division as they have been for at least the last 15 years and it's only getting stronger as an organization...so suck it! That's me being obnoxious.

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah, I am obnoxious because I don't tell other posters to "stfu." And you agree that they win the division.
You sound bitter and moronic.
The Cards didn't regress as a team like the rest of the division in the off-season...it got better offensively and defensively!
The Cards payroll even went down.
The smoke and mirrors that the Butt Pierats used last year are gone. Cincy got worse and the Scrubs are the Scrubs. I suspect the Brew Crew are going to finish a distant 2nd
Cards are the class of that division as they have been for at least the last 15 years and it's only getting stronger as an organization...so suck it! That's me being obnoxious.

My goodness, that's creative.

 

[Moneyman]

People are really sleeping on the Brewers.

They had a LOT go wrong last year, but their lineup should be fully healthy heading into the season and could be one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball. This was a team that was ranked 3rd in the MLB in 2012 in runs scored and that was the year they added A-Ram and lost Fielder in FA. That was also without Jean Segura at SS.

Last year, they lost Hart for the whole season, Braun was suspended 60 games in, and A-Ram was banged up for the first two months and wasn't fully healthy until the last month.

The bullpen was ranked in the Top 5 last year and got even better with the additions of Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg, and Wang. The rotation finally got it together the last two months as well once Estrada got healthy, Peralta/Gallardo rebounded from tough 1st half starts and they added Garza this year.

Projected lineup:

1. Carlos Gomez CF
2. Jean Segura SS
3. Ryan Braun RF
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Jonathan Lucroy C
6. Khris Davis LF
7. Rickie Weeks/Scoote Gennett 2B
8. Mark Reynolds/Lyle Overybay 1B

Rotation:

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Kyle Lohse
3. Matt Garza
4. Wily Peralta
5. Marco Estrada

Bullpen:

CL: Jim Henderson
SU: Brandon Kintzler
SU: Will Smith
MR: Francisco Rodriguez
MR: Rob Wooten/Tom Gorzo
LR: Wang
LR: Tyler Thornburg

Where do you see weakness on that team outside of 1B? The lineup is very good, the bullpen looks to be solid and the rotation is improved from last year.

 

[Ryanballa]

There 1.2.3 are alright in rotation, But there 4,5 is ridiculous. For there Lineup, Aramis Ramirez is a walking DL, and they tried trading Weeks, along with there 1st baseman. They will do better this year, they made improvements. But wont compete for division.

 

[Darkstone42]

People are really sleeping on the Brewers.

They had a LOT go wrong last year, but their lineup should be fully healthy heading into the season and could be one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball. This was a team that was ranked 3rd in the MLB in 2012 in runs scored and that was the year they added A-Ram and lost Fielder in FA. That was also without Jean Segura at SS.

Last year, they lost Hart for the whole season, Braun was suspended 60 games in, and A-Ram was banged up for the first two months and wasn't fully healthy until the last month.

The bullpen was ranked in the Top 5 last year and got even better with the additions of Will Smith, Tyler Thornburg, and Wang. The rotation finally got it together the last two months as well once Estrada got healthy, Peralta/Gallardo rebounded from tough 1st half starts and they added Garza this year.

Projected lineup:

1. Carlos Gomez CF
2. Jean Segura SS
3. Ryan Braun RF
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Jonathan Lucroy C
6. Khris Davis LF
7. Rickie Weeks/Scoote Gennett 2B
8. Mark Reynolds/Lyle Overybay 1B

Rotation:

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Kyle Lohse
3. Matt Garza
4. Wily Peralta
5. Marco Estrada

Bullpen:

CL: Jim Henderson
SU: Brandon Kintzler
SU: Will Smith
MR: Francisco Rodriguez
MR: Rob Wooten/Tom Gorzo
LR: Wang
LR: Tyler Thornburg

Where do you see weakness on that team outside of 1B? The lineup is very good, the bullpen looks to be solid and the rotation is improved from last year.

The lineup plays if Ramirez stays healthy, and that's kind of a big if lately. Even so, it's at least on par with, if not better than, the Pirates and Reds offenses, although there's a serious upside (another if) to the Pirates offense due to the density of young players.

The starting pitching, though, is pretty questionable, I think. Garza's a number 2, Lohse is a number 3, Gallardo a borderline number 3, Estrada a borderline number 4, and Peralta a number 5. That's not an especially strong rotation, and the upside is also pretty limited. And they'll be pitching in that bandbox in Milwaukee, which doesn't help, either, even though they should get some boost from their offense at home.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them compete, but I think they need more to work out favorably than the teams who finished ahead of them last year do.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Reds just lose Choo in the lineup, and if Bham can find away on base,which he has done in Spring (That's not saying much though) I think Billy Hamilton is better for this club,In many different ways. Other then Reds just losing Choo. Here is what Pirates lost.
Justin Mornue
Marlon Byrd
Garrett Jones
Michael Mckenry
John Buck
This is a lot of loses, The management knows that there gonna have problems, which is why Pirates was talking to Kendrys Morales.

Come on, now, many of those guys were barely there or not good....

Morneau played 25 games with the Pirates, hit .260 with 0 HR and 3 RBI
Byrd played just 30 games with the Pirates
McHenry wasn't any good
John Buck played just 9 games with the Pirates

 

[StanMarsh51]

Yeah, I am obnoxious because I don't tell other posters to "stfu." And you agree that they win the division.
You sound bitter and moronic.
The Cards didn't regress as a team like the rest of the division in the off-season...it got better offensively and defensively!
The Cards payroll even went down.
The smoke and mirrors that the Butt Pierats used last year are gone. Cincy got worse and the Scrubs are the Scrubs. I suspect the Brew Crew are going to finish a distant 2nd
Cards are the class of that division as they have been for at least the last 15 years and it's only getting stronger as an organization...so suck it! That's me being obnoxious.

Are Peralta and Bourjos expected to make up for Beltran's lost production? Peralta isn't that consistent...he's just as likely to hit .250 with 10 HR as a he is to hit .290 with 20 HR. And Bourjos wasn't even better than Jay was last year, so are we presuming that's an upgrade offensively in CF?

Can we also expect Carpenter to repeat his 2013? That's no easy task.

 

[Clayton]

Are Peralta and Bourjos expected to make up for Beltran's lost production? Peralta isn't that consistent...he's just as likely to hit .250 with 10 HR as a he is to hit .290 with 20 HR. And Bourjos wasn't even better than Jay was last year, so are we presuming that's an upgrade offensively in CF?

Can we also expect Carpenter to repeat his 2013? That's no easy task.

I would say the Cardinals are a bit of an unknown offensively. Likely a slight downgrade from last year but there is some upside in the lineup. Peralta is going to be an upgrade over Kozma offensively. Bourjos is going to be a downgrade over Beltran offensively. The defense should balance out both moves and Kozma is still around for substitution purposes. Wong this year will hopefully be better than Wong last year. He certainly can't be worse. Carpenter might not repeat 2013 but I bet he should still be solid.

I think the offense will be more balanced as a whole but slightly weaker

 

[scoutyjones2]

LOL...you forget that Craig takes Tranny's place in RF...


Kozma was the worst hitting regular starter in MLB last year. He is replaced with Peralta. Carpenter replaces the fading Freese, Wong comes in at 2B and is high OBP player from MiLB. Adams gets a full year at 1B (131 OPS+ and 17 HR's in half a years AB's off the bench!) while Craig moves to RF, the best RBI machine in the game.
That is an improvement over last years squad and they don't have to be this monster RISP team like last years historical mark...just a bit above average...around 280. T
They have multiple options in the OF with Bourjos/Jay/Piscotty/Grichuk...2 are starting/platooning OF'ers that could start on most teams, and the best LF in the game in Matt Holiday!
Add that they have pitching coming out their ass.
Beltran was great for half a season each of his two seasons, and a beast in the playoffs.
This is a young, talented, maturing team with a great balance of power, speed, defensive skill, pitching...it's not even close in the NL Central.

So improvements overall

The only Achilles heel...if Yadi goes down


Keep fooling yourselves that they aren't the class of the NL Central, if not the entire NL!

 

[Clayton]

LOL...you forget that Craig takes Tranny's place in RF...


Kozma was the worst hitting regular starter in MLB last year. He is replaced with Peralta. Carpenter replaces the fading Freese, Wong comes in at 2B and is high OBP player from MiLB. Adams gets a full year at 1B (131 OPS+ and 17 HR's in half a years AB's off the bench!) while Craig moves to RF, the best RBI machine in the game.
That is an improvement over last years squad and they don't have to be this monster RISP team like last years historical mark...just a bit above average...around 280. T
They have multiple options in the OF with Bourjos/Jay/Piscotty/Grichuk...2 are starting/platooning OF'ers that could start on most teams, and the best LF in the game in Matt Holiday!
Add that they have pitching coming out their ass.
Beltran was great for half a season each of his two seasons, and a beast in the playoffs.
This is a young, talented, maturing team with a great balance of power, speed, defensive skill, pitching...it's not even close in the NL Central.

So improvements overall

The only Achilles heel...if Yadi goes down


Keep fooling yourselves that they aren't the class of the NL Central, if not the entire NL!

Well, 2/3 of the people who voted certainly think they are the favorite in the Central including myself.

 

[StanMarsh51]

LOL...you forget that Craig takes Tranny's place in RF...


Kozma was the worst hitting regular starter in MLB last year. He is replaced with Peralta. Carpenter replaces the fading Freese, Wong comes in at 2B and is high OBP player from MiLB. Adams gets a full year at 1B (131 OPS+ and 17 HR's in half a years AB's off the bench!) while Craig moves to RF, the best RBI machine in the game.
That is an improvement over last years squad and they don't have to be this monster RISP team like last years historical mark...just a bit above average...around 280. T
They have multiple options in the OF with Bourjos/Jay/Piscotty/Grichuk...2 are starting/platooning OF'ers that could start on most teams, and the best LF in the game in Matt Holiday!
Add that they have pitching coming out their ass.
Beltran was great for half a season each of his two seasons, and a beast in the playoffs.
This is a young, talented, maturing team with a great balance of power, speed, defensive skill, pitching...it's not even close in the NL Central.

So improvements overall

The only Achilles heel...if Yadi goes down


Keep fooling yourselves that they aren't the class of the NL Central, if not the entire NL!

At which point are you going to realize that Craig and Carpenter were on the team last year, so if you're saying it's an upgrade that Craig and Carpenter are "replacing" players X and Y, isn't it likely a downgrade for the players "replacing" Craig and Carpenter?....think about that and realize why you're not making any sense.

And do you reasonably expect Matt Adams 131 OPS+ to stay the same, considering 84% of his plate appearances were against righties? Last year, 56% of the Cards' PA's were against righties, so if Adams is becoming a full-time player and he struggles against lefties and will face a lot more lefties....you get the idea.

And give me a break about Wong's "high OBP".....his minor league OBP was only about 20-25 points better than the league averages for this leagues he played in....if you consider that "high OBP," you need to re-evaluate what's considered "high" in your book.



You don't need to embellish and exaggerate everything about the Cards...be realistic. There's probably not a single person on this thread other than yourself that thinks the Cards offense will be better than last year (even your fellow Cards fans don't seem to think so).