NHL to Portland

[OregonDucks]

well looks like I answered my own question when I searched it..

Las Vegas Arena - An AEG & MGM Resorts Partnership

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Those other cities don't have this:

NHL to Portland NOW | Facebook 651 likes!

Does anyone not think Vegas is all but assured a team? I am not stating I like it, its awful, but I don't see anyway they do not get one of the teams.

From a publicity standpoint nobody else comes close. A Vegas team puts the spotlight on the league and gets a ton of attention from non hockey people. As deserving as other cities are, nobody outside of hardcore hockey fans and people in the other cities will care that they get a team.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

I think only Seattle and Houston are bigger markets.

It's more important to measure hockey fans in a market I think.

Sure Houston has a population that's way higher than QC, but the number of hockey fans would probably be a lot lower.

These are from last summer, but Nate Silver did a pretty good analysis (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/?_r=0 for the full article) of the population and hockey fanbase in various markets (note that he didn't include Portland, but did cover most of the other potentials):

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

There's also his proposal for re-alignment, though that's pretty much entirely numbers-based and doesn't really account for growing the game, etc.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

It's more important to measure hockey fans in a market I think.

Sure Houston has a population that's way higher than QC, but the number of hockey fans would probably be a lot lower.

These are from last summer, but Nate Silver did a pretty good analysis (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/?_r=0 for the full article) of the population and hockey fanbase in various markets (note that he didn't include Portland, but did cover most of the other potentials):

They make more sense than most of the other teams on the list - the Aeros were always top ten in attendance in the AHL until they were moved to be closer to the Wild. They're also growing faster as a city than any of the other options, and would have a built-in rivalry with Dallas. Not saying it's a slam dunk, but I'm surprised it's not talked about more.

 

[OregonDucks]

It's more important to measure hockey fans in a market I think.

Sure Houston has a population that's way higher than QC, but the number of hockey fans would probably be a lot lower.

These are from last summer, but Nate Silver did a pretty good analysis (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/?_r=0 for the full article) of the population and hockey fanbase in various markets (note that he didn't include Portland, but did cover most of the other potentials):

cool chart...90k hockey fans in vegas?! surprising

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

cool chart...90k hockey fans in vegas?! surprising

The original article is very long, but the basic conclusion was that several of those teams at the bottom of the first chart need to contract or relocate because higher numbers of fans than what he estimates in cities like Miami and Nashville are needed to make teams profitable.

 

[Comeds]

From a publicity standpoint nobody else comes close. A Vegas team puts the spotlight on the league and gets a ton of attention from non hockey people. As deserving as other cities are, nobody outside of hardcore hockey fans and people in the other cities will care that they get a team.

I am sure thats the hope. And I know there would be a big amount of attention at first. Plus it might be a good thing the NHL would be the first major sport to have a team in Vegas.

I just do not think 'growing the game' is as important as placing teams in markets that have, or are believed to have, large built in audiences for the games. Maybe Vegas would be that too, I just have serious doubts.

 

[dash]

The only thing missing from the above chart is moving Mike Ribeiro to Alcatraz...

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

The only thing missing from the above chart is moving Mike Ribeiro to Alcatraz...

Did I miss the news about him getting traded to Edmonton?

 

[forty_three]

It's more important to measure hockey fans in a market I think.

Sure Houston has a population that's way higher than QC, but the number of hockey fans would probably be a lot lower.

These are from last summer, but Nate Silver did a pretty good analysis (see http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/31/why-cant-canada-win-the-stanley-cup/?_r=0 for the full article) of the population and hockey fanbase in various markets (note that he didn't include Portland, but did cover most of the other potentials):

So, how was this framed when polling?

Was it "Are you a hockey fan?" Or was it "What sport are you a fan of first?" Because, yeah, in Columbus if you ask the majority of people to decide which they care about first, it's college football. No question.

But when I look outside my Window, I see more than 8% of the population sporting Jackets gear. They might be wearing an OSU shirt and a Jackets cap, but being a fan is not mutually exclusive.

Answers may be skewed. Badly.

 

[dash]

in Columbus if you ask the majority of people to decide which they care about first, it's college football. No question.

I thought it was the location of the closest tattoo parlor to the 'Shoe.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

So, how was this framed when polling?

Was it "Are you a hockey fan?" Or was it "What sport are you a fan of first?" Because, yeah, in Columbus if you ask the majority of people to decide which they care about first, it's college football. No question.

But when I look outside my Window, I see more than 8% of the population sporting Jackets gear. They might be wearing an OSU shirt and a Jackets cap, but being a fan is not mutually exclusive.

Answers may be skewed. Badly.

He does explain his methodology in the article. He's definitely taking some liberties in reaching certain conclusions, so the numbers may be off.

But it's probably worth noting that his statistical analyses, in general and across multiple topics, tend to be pretty spot-on.

EDIT: And the data is a year old. Things can change in a hurry. For example, I'll be the numbers for Tampa went up this year because of the team's on ice success.

Double EDIT: Two years old. I'm stupid today.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

And for the record, I don't necessarily agree with all of his conclusions, but - at least to the best of my knowledge - this is the most comprehensive analysis of its type out there.

And as I said, it's only numbers-based, which doesn't take into consideration the big picture. For example, on numbers alone Atlanta would be 2nd in line for a US expansion team and be better off than 4 existing franchises. And yet we know that they won't be getting a team again for a looonnnggg time.

/OK, with Bettman in charge who really knows. We'll call it a safe assumption.

 

[forty_three]

I thought it was the location of the closest tattoo parlor to the 'Shoe.

That's only if you ask football players.

He does explain his methodology in the article. He's definitely taking some liberties in reaching certain conclusions, so the numbers may be off.

But it's probably worth noting that his statistical analyses, in general and across multiple topics, tend to be pretty spot-on.

EDIT: And the data is a year old. Things can change in a hurry. For example, I'll be the numbers for Tampa went up this year because of the team's on ice success.

Double EDIT: Two years old. I'm stupid today.

That's the major problem with polling. Yeah, you can get great info, but at the end of the day you are only working with data that matches the criteria and assumptions you set out with. Which is why I asked.

Like the last election, so many of his assumptions were based on telephone polls on issues. The problem is, it's not legal for polling entities to call Mobile Phones unless you opt in, and nearly a third of the country has ditched land lines. Right of the bat, your numbers are off by a third. Before you ask a question. Factor in the demographics that are likely to have ditched a land line (Younger, middle class, tech savvy) and you skew even further on a lot of issues important to that sector of society.

So any model you build from that is going to be off. Then if you frame the question a certain way, or limit your polling group you change reality degree by degree.

Nate Silver does amazing work, but it feels like too many take his word as gospel. Too much room for variables in his methods. Use it as a source of info, yes. But season it with other sources.

Of course, 100% accuracy is impossible, so there's that.

 

[RP-29]

The Wisconsin Badgers were 2nd in attendance of all 59 teams in D-1 NCAA hockey despite going 4-26-5 on the year.

The Green Bay Gamblers were 3rd in attendance last season, but were the second-worst team in the USHL.

The Madison Capitols, in their inaugural USHL season, were 5th in attendance and finished 15 points out of a playoff spot.

The Milwaukee Admirals finished 11th in attendance, but 21st in the AHL standings.

There are a lot of hockey fans in Wisconsin that are willing to drop money on attending games.

I've been trying to find regional TV ratings breakdowns for USA Olympic hockey and NHL Playoff hockey because I know Wisconsin TV markets have strong viewership as well, but have been thus far unsuccessful in acquiring numbers.

 

[DevilishWon]

VEGAS BABY

 

[IndyAndy]

The Wisconsin Badgers were 2nd in attendance of all 59 teams in D-1 NCAA hockey despite going 4-26-5 on the year.

The Green Bay Gamblers were 3rd in attendance last season, but were the second-worst team in the USHL.

The Madison Capitols, in their inaugural USHL season, were 5th in attendance and finished 15 points out of a playoff spot.

The Milwaukee Admirals finished 11th in attendance, but 21st in the AHL standings.

There are a lot of hockey fans in Wisconsin that are willing to drop money on attending games.

I've been trying to find regional TV ratings breakdowns for USA Olympic hockey and NHL Playoff hockey because I know Wisconsin TV markets have strong viewership as well, but have been thus far unsuccessful in acquiring numbers.

But has anyone in WI polled folks to see if they would support an NHL squad IN ADDITION to these teams? One could make the argument that the local market is already saturated...

 

[DevilishWon]

Neither Portland or Wisconsin are getting a team so fugheddaboudit

 

[jstewismybastardson]

It's my theory. Sorry, I don't take reservoir hijinks lightly.

My bad but i did it to ensure portland looks bad as an nhl market ... I DID IT FOR YOU @Comeds !!!

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