New Year's Six Predictions: Week 9(According to SportsHoopla Poll)

[Across The Field]

I was a little surprised to see Ohio State open up as 17 point favorites over Nebraska. Seems high to me, but that means Vegas must know something we don't. My guess is Ohio State covers against Nebraska.

I hope so. Maybe it's got to do with the hangover after getting beaten up at night against Wisconsin just a week prior that is spurning this. All I know, though, is that OSU is looking nothing like what we say from them at the beginning of the year.

 

[Rolltide94]

Score prediction for if Alabama faces Michigan?

We score 31...7 on D, 7 on Special Teams and 17 on O...so technically you will be correct, we won't score more than 30 on your Defense. Peppers scores on O and D and you guys get 21.

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

I saw it coming. Not to that extent, but i told everyone that'd listen to bet the house on OSU. You can look at the schedule and see where the injuries started piling up defensively last year. It isn't as if what OSU did last year was the first time UM was gashed on the ground. Indiana ran for over 400 yards for crying out loud.

Last year's defense was great, but they had NO DEPTH at all. When they lost 4 guys in the front 7. It went from a great defense to a defense that was bulldozed by multiple teams. Hell, the newspaper in Ohio even wrote a story about all the injuries and how OSU would really exploit that (which they did)

Right now, UM has one guy on the DL that I'd call irreplaceable with a backup (Glasgow). So if they have injuries there they have someone they can put in and not skip a beat. Now the secondary -- they cannot afford an injury. They lose Stribbling or Lewis and UM is in trouble. Same with LB'ers -- we have youth, but the talent level will be a big drop off.

That is why I've said -- if UM stays healthy. I like our chances against anyone (sans Bama), but they are an injury or two from being a defense who can be exploited. That is why I think it will be another 2 years before we see what Harbaugh can do at UM when he has a full team of recruits and actual depth, where you can give guys a breather without the talent level dropping off.

2014 and 2015 I think Western Michigan out recruited us. Embarrassing.

 

[Rolltide94]

I think everyone says no chance against Bama but I really think we are maybe 1 of 3 teams that have a remote chance. Bama so far looks ahead of everyone else by a significant margin however.

When teams have quality defenses, there is always a chance. Look at Wisconsin, good OL, good RB, but their qb play makes them a liability on Offense, but their defense is so good, they hang around in games they should be getting blown out of.

It remains to be seen how much Eddie Jackson will be missed in our defensive backfield and playing a freshman QB is always an adventure.

LSU is always dangerous in Baton Rouge and Auburn is peaking at the right time, I'm not counting on playing anybody in the playoffs until we get through those.

Of course, if we win the West it will be smooth sailing in the CCG...and yes, I'm talking to you Florida fans...top 10 my ass....you'd be the 5th best team in the West.

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

When teams have quality defenses, there is always a chance. Look at Wisconsin, good OL, good RB, but their qb play makes them a liability on Offense, but their defense is so good, they hang around in games they should be getting blown out of.

It remains to be seen how much Eddie Jackson will be missed in our defensive backfield and playing a freshman QB is always an adventure.

LSU is always dangerous in Baton Rouge and Auburn is peaking at the right time, I'm not counting on playing anybody in the playoffs until we get through those.

Of course, if we win the West it will be smooth sailing in the CCG...and yes, I'm talking to you Florida fans...top 10 my ass....you'd be the 5th best team in the West.

I'm not sure about Nebraska's defense because they played Wisconsin's offense, the Badgers are a QB away from being legit. Nebraska looks close but then again it's harder to judge their defense.

 

[Rolltide94]

I'm not sure about Nebraska's defense because they played Wisconsin's offense, the Badgers are a QB away from being legit. Nebraska looks close but then again it's harder to judge their defense.

I don't think it is black shirt worthy by any stretch, I think you hit it on the head. They aren't bad, but Wisconsin's QB collective made them look better.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

We score 31...7 on D, 7 on Special Teams and 17 on O...so technically you will be correct, we won't score more than 30 on your Defense. Peppers scores on O and D and you guys get 21.

Probably about how it goes. 31-21 seems about right.

 

[American Male]

Some of these Miss-Chicken Fans are F-U-N-N-Y!!!

 

[Great Dayne]

I'm not sure about Nebraska's defense because they played Wisconsin's offense, the Badgers are a QB away from being legit. Nebraska looks close but then again it's harder to judge their defense.

We finally got one but we'll have to wait until next season unfortunately. Right now we just have to pray our QB's don't throw 3 int's to lose the game. I know the UW defense is elite but it's nearly impossible to hold a top 5 offense to under 7 points with a shitty punter and turnover prone QB/QB's.

 

[Great Dayne]

I think everyone says no chance against Bama but I really think we are maybe 1 of 3 teams that have a remote chance. Bama so far looks ahead of everyone else by a significant margin however.

Weren't they losing to 4 loss team in Ole piss by like 20+ points before they scored a bunch of defensive and SPT's TD's?

To beat Bama right now just don't turn the rock over and kick it out of Bounds or out of the end zone. If LSU does this they can beat Bama.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Some of these Miss-Chicken Fans are F-U-N-N-Y!!!

Says the idiot who predicted Michigan would lose 4 games this year.

 

[Deep Creek]

To beat Bama right now just don't turn the rock over and kick it out of Bounds or out of the end zone.

That definitely helps.

But, per Bama folks, in order to beat them a team needs a QB that can throw it well enough AND make plays with his legs when things break down. Chad Kelly meets that criteria which is why he's had some offensive success against them. (Same for Deshaun Watson but that is a much smaller sample size.) If a team is "vanilla" or one dimensional, Bama will stop it in a heartbeat.

But, they've recently transitioned to a different type LB and Safety in order to deal with those type teams...so I'm not even sure that'll work now.

 

[Across The Field]

So I've got to wonder what makes these michigan fans so confident they could keep Alabama or any elite offense to under 30?

So far this year, the highest scoring team they've faced is Colorado at 33rd in the nation, and they put up 28 (Yes I know, you were missing a couple of guys. This same Colorado couldn't even hit close to 28 on USC or Stanford so that argument is BS).

Then there's also the fact that michigan has played 2 road games all year (TWO), and those were against teams that are each 2-6.

Perhaps the michigan fans here should dial it back a bit until you beat a team with a real offense. I'd argue at this point that OSU's defense has been just as good, if not better, considering we've faced the #5 and #12 scoring teams in the nation and are only giving up an average of 3.5 more PPG (and our number includes a pick 6 and a kick return TD, which shouldn't factor into defensive numbers).

 

[Deep Creek]

Then there's also the fact that michigan has played 2 road games all year (TWO), and those were against teams that are each 2-6.

There you go bringing up facts again...

 

[ericd7633]

So I've got to wonder what makes these michigan fans so confident they could keep Alabama or any elite offense to under 30?

So far this year, the highest scoring team they've faced is Colorado at 33rd in the nation, and they put up 28 (Yes I know, you were missing a couple of guys. This same Colorado couldn't even hit close to 28 on USC or Stanford so that argument is BS).

Then there's also the fact that michigan has played 2 road games all year (TWO), and those were against teams that are each 2-6.

Perhaps the michigan fans here should dial it back a bit until you beat a team with a real offense. I'd argue at this point that OSU's defense has been just as good, if not better, considering we've faced the #5 and #12 scoring teams in the nation and are only giving up an average of 3.5 more PPG (and our number includes a pick 6 and a kick return TD, which shouldn't factor into defensive numbers).

Colorado's offense is easily a top 25 offense. Going by PPG is idiotic, not sure why people still feel the need to do that? They've been absolutely killed by special teams this year, might be one of the worst special teams units in college football.

And yes, Michigan's defense is better than Ohio State's. Again, going by PPG is idiotic, especially when Michigan has given up garbage TD's. Look, I hate Michigan and all, but it's pretty undeniable that they've been better than Ohio State on offense and defense this year.

 

[BigAppleBadger]

The Cotton Bowl is probably the big game that I am least interested in going to. I'll be in Florida for Christmas so the Orange would be neat.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

So I've got to wonder what makes these michigan fans so confident they could keep Alabama or any elite offense to under 30?

So far this year, the highest scoring team they've faced is Colorado at 33rd in the nation, and they put up 28 (Yes I know, you were missing a couple of guys. This same Colorado couldn't even hit close to 28 on USC or Stanford so that argument is BS).

Then there's also the fact that michigan has played 2 road games all year (TWO), and those were against teams that are each 2-6.

Perhaps the michigan fans here should dial it back a bit until you beat a team with a real offense. I'd argue at this point that OSU's defense has been just as good, if not better, considering we've faced the #5 and #12 scoring teams in the nation and are only giving up an average of 3.5 more PPG (and our number includes a pick 6 and a kick return TD, which shouldn't factor into defensive numbers).

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

The LBs for the most part still suck and that was the biggest issue last year along with an injury depleted DLine getting pounded by Ohio States Offensive Line. The team was healthy against MSU and LJ Scott still made McCray look like dogshit.

I have no issue with our LB's right now. They are light years better than I thought they'd be coming into the season. This is why I am hoping and praying we can sign an elite LB or two or three this year.

If someone had told me coming into the season, UM's LB's would have almost 30 TFL and 10 sacks thru 8 games -- I'd have called them a fool. Gedeon and McCray have been much better than I thought they'd be. They have had issues, especially in the 2nd half against MSU, but overall they have been much better than last year's LB's.

 

[hailtoyourvictor]

Colorado's offense is easily a top 25 offense. Going by PPG is idiotic, not sure why people still feel the need to do that? They've been absolutely killed by special teams this year, might be one of the worst special teams units in college football.

And yes, Michigan's defense is better than Ohio State's. Again, going by PPG is idiotic, especially when Michigan has given up garbage TD's. Look, I hate Michigan and all, but it's pretty undeniable that they've been better than Ohio State on offense and defense this year.

Not to mention that his arguement is based on playing weak opponents but then cites Ohio St. playing Tulsa as some sort of feather in OSU's cap (despite Tulsa having such high scoring numbers because of their weak schedule). It's hypocritical but not surprising that he would do so.


Thankfully, Football Outsiders has a metric that accounts for defense on a play-by-pay basis, accounts for garbage time production, and adjusts for strength of opponent.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 NCAA S&P+ RATINGS, DEFENSE


But now what you will see is the Ohio St. fan dismiss this metric because it doesn't support his agenda.

 

[Across The Field]

Colorado's offense is easily a top 25 offense. Going by PPG is idiotic, not sure why people still feel the need to do that? They've been absolutely killed by special teams this year, might be one of the worst special teams units in college football.

And yes, Michigan's defense is better than Ohio State's. Again, going by PPG is idiotic, especially when Michigan has given up garbage TD's. Look, I hate Michigan and all, but it's pretty undeniable that they've been better than Ohio State on offense and defense this year.

Colorado has faced one two top 40 defenses this year. That's it. michigan was the only one they scored on really. Not sure how that makes them "easily" a top 25 offense. Going by PPG also doesn't favor OSU, as we've given up 2 non-defensive TDs.