NBA OFF TOPIC THREAD

[thunderc]

It's so simple, put them in the Hall and include the steroids story on their plaques.

I still blame baseball and the players union equally for all that. I blame the players union in two ways though. One for not looking out for membership putting that crap in their body but mainly for not looking out for the players that weren’t and lost jobs to those that were. Baseball is to blame in the same way.

 

[msgkings322]

I still blame baseball and the players union equally for all that. I blame the players union in two ways though. One for not looking out for membership putting that crap in their body but mainly for not looking out for the players that weren’t and lost jobs to those that were. Baseball is to blame in the same way.

Ok but it's history and those players are a huge part of baseball history and undeniably among the best who ever played. Put them in.

 

[tlance]

and like I also said I could see that too.....but clearly they know more than you when it comes to end of game.

Who is they?

Many Coaches are actually notoriously bad at this type of stuff because tradition is hard to break.

Analytic push is still relatively new and trends to be way more aggressive than traditional strategy.

And I am not talking about end of game.

What I have said all along is that if it truly is the best play at the end, then it should also be the best play at the beginning.

So pretty much the opposite.

 

[tlance]

Not sure why a team would do that either.

That is what started this whole discussion.

That analytics dictates that is the correct play trailing by 14 in the 4th.

 

[trojanfan12]

That is what started this whole discussion.

That analytics dictates that is the correct play trailing by 14 in the 4th.

Just another reason why analytics shouldn't play near as big a role as it does.

 

[bksballer89]

Sorry @thunderc

 

[fightinfunbags]

Who is they?

Many Coaches are actually notoriously bad at this type of stuff because tradition is hard to break.

Analytic push is still relatively new and trends to be way more aggressive than traditional strategy.

And I am not talking about end of game.

What I have said all along is that if it truly is the best play at the end, then it should also be the best play at the beginning.

So pretty much the opposite.

This logic makes little sense. When you’re down in a game you have to take risks. When you’re the underdog in a game you have to take risks. The most important aspect of data is the game theory and analysis that you do with the data. When you’re up, when you’re the favorite…you take the consistent option that nets results of 90-95%. Late in the game when you’re down the circumstance changes and you really don’t have the same approach.

As I stated the other day, the impact of momentum on these moments is huge. You catch some 140-150 snaps plus special teams in a football game. While you have things rolling with your hair on fire and the defense just trying to ride it out you get a single play that could have impact beyond the regular impact of most single plays and this knowledge exists BEFORE the play is run.

I don’t think you can look at these decisions with a rigidity. Rigidity says the same impetus for going for 2 would exist all game. That’s just not the case.

 

[tlance]

This logic makes little sense. When you’re down in a game you have to take risks. When you’re the underdog in a game you have to take risks. The most important aspect of data is the game theory and analysis that you do with the data. When you’re up, when you’re the favorite…you take the consistent option that nets results of 90-95%. Late in the game when you’re down the circumstance changes and you really don’t have the same approach.

As I stated the other day, the impact of momentum on these moments is huge. You catch some 140-150 snaps plus special teams in a football game. While you have things rolling with your hair on fire and the defense just trying to ride it out you get a single play that could have impact beyond the regular impact of most single plays and this knowledge exists BEFORE the play is run.

I don’t think you can look at these decisions with a rigidity. Rigidity says the same impetus for going for 2 would exist all game. That’s just not the case.

When you are down 14, you need 14 to extend the game.

The simplest way to get 14 points is 2 TDs and 2 extra points.

Taking a risk to go for 2 means that almost half the time, you will be chasing a 2nd 2 point conversion because you botched the first.

Taking more risks?

Sure. That to me means being more aggressive maybe going on 4th down in times that you might not otherwise.

2 point conversion though?

That is an unnecessary risk when the simple math lines up perfectly. 7 + 7 = 14.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t scenarios where it does make sense. Like if your offense is really flowing. Or if you get a penalty to attempt the try from the 1.

But coming back from 14 late in the game is difficult. And if you do it, you have the momentum riding into OT.

 

[thunderc]

When you are down 14, you need 14 to extend the game.

The simplest way to get 14 points is 2 TDs and 2 extra points.

Taking a risk to go for 2 means that almost half the time, you will be chasing a 2nd 2 point conversion because you botched the first.

Taking more risks?

Sure. That to me means being more aggressive maybe going on 4th down in times that you might not otherwise.

2 point conversion though?

That is an unnecessary risk when the simple math lines up perfectly. 7 + 7 = 14.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t scenarios where it does make sense. Like if your offense is really flowing. Or if you get a penalty to attempt the try from the 1.

But coming back from 14 late in the game is difficult. And if you do it, you have the momentum riding into OT.

Here we go, an article dedicated just to this. Lots of percentages.

Going for 2 down 8 points: Packers pull off come-from-behind win thanks to this strategy

The Packers profited from being the first team this season to try this unconventional 2-point conversion attempt. Here's why others should follow their lead.

www.espn.com

 

[Think McFly Think]

Here we go, an article dedicated just to this. Lots of percentages.

Going for 2 down 8 points: Packers pull off come-from-behind win thanks to this strategy

The Packers profited from being the first team this season to try this unconventional 2-point conversion attempt. Here's why others should follow their lead.

www.espn.com

Nice read

 

[fightinfunbags]

When you are down 14, you need 14 to extend the game.

The simplest way to get 14 points is 2 TDs and 2 extra points.

Taking a risk to go for 2 means that almost half the time, you will be chasing a 2nd 2 point conversion because you botched the first.

This is a poor assumption. An individual coach has much more information to consider including the matchup and the quality of his two point package, the defense’s history against two point plays, the defense’s tendencies vs formation, etc…

It’s not a given you miss the first attempt. If you get that you’re in the cat bird seat. If it fails you still have another chance to get the second two point conversion.

Your methodology here in putting yourself in the position of the decision maker is innately flawed because it ignores so much important information.

Taking more risks?

Sure. That to me means being more aggressive maybe going on 4th down in times that you might not otherwise.

2 point conversion though?

That is an unnecessary risk when the simple math lines up perfectly. 7 + 7 = 14.

You assume that getting to OT is a desired result. It is often not. There’s a great advantage to taking the game to 6 over taking it to 7. Even at 8 your play is hedged with a potential second opportunity. If you don’t get the second TD obviously this is all moot anyway.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t scenarios where it does make sense. Like if your offense is really flowing. Or if you get a penalty to attempt the try from the 1.

This is what I’ve been trying to say. For some football teams this is the way. For some this isn’t the way. I think philosophically you want to “raise” an aggressive team and that can often be created by modeling things like this to your team.

But coming back from 14 late in the game is difficult. And if you do it, you have the momentum riding into OT.

In theory this makes sense. However, in practice it often goes the other way. There’s a break and a reset that can mess with momentum. The biggest momentum swing for OT exists in a coin flip. Football OT is a precarious and fickle beast.

 

[dtgold88]

Who is they?

Many Coaches are actually notoriously bad at this type of stuff because tradition is hard to break.

Analytic push is still relatively new and trends to be way more aggressive than traditional strategy.

And I am not talking about end of game.

What I have said all along is that if it truly is the best play at the end, then it should also be the best play at the beginning.

So pretty much the opposite.

Not sure what "this type of stuff" is as we are talking one specific thing, not stuff. Likely people smarter than these coaches told them this is the best option. It's been explained why they may not yet be willing to make this choice all game....but even if it is the wrong decision not to go for 2 entire game why continue to make the wrong decision?

Now I agree coaches can be dumb end of game, half, etc.....hell, a perfect example was the end of the Detroit/TB game last sunday. TB still had a TO and didn't even use it even though they could have gotten the ball back with 30 or so seconds left if they had (Detroit would have needed to punt or take a long FG, I believe).....Detroit also messed up by not taking up more of the clock and even allowing TB to get the ball back if they wanted.

 

[dtgold88]

Just another reason why analytics shouldn't play near as big a role as it does.

Or a reason they should listen more to the numbers than they do?

 

[dtgold88]

When you are down 14, you need 14 to extend the game.

The simplest way to get 14 points is 2 TDs and 2 extra points.

Taking a risk to go for 2 means that almost half the time, you will be chasing a 2nd 2 point conversion because you botched the first.

Taking more risks?

Sure. That to me means being more aggressive maybe going on 4th down in times that you might not otherwise.

2 point conversion though?

That is an unnecessary risk when the simple math lines up perfectly. 7 + 7 = 14.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t scenarios where it does make sense. Like if your offense is really flowing. Or if you get a penalty to attempt the try from the 1.

But coming back from 14 late in the game is difficult. And if you do it, you have the momentum riding into OT.

I do get this and how I felt about it initially.....but what if some pretty simply math explains why it makes more sense to go for 2?

 

[shopson67]

Allen's cap hit about to go from 18 to 47mill......so there goes the ability to really improve your team moving forward.

They've got some vets that are nearing the end and/or not returning in 2024. Von Miller (considerable dead money, a league suspension would lighten that considerably), Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, etc. There will be talk about Diggs too (again, considerable dead money).

They're projected to be $40M+ over the cap, so a lot of maneuvering is coming this offseason (signing bonus conversions, etc).

 

[dtgold88]

They've got some vets that are nearing the end and/or not returning in 2024. Von Miller (considerable dead money, a league suspension would lighten that considerably), Tre White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, etc. There will be talk about Diggs too (again, considerable dead money).

They're projected to be $40M+ over the cap, so a lot of maneuvering is coming this offseason (signing bonus conversions, etc).

I mean, $40 mil a lot but I know we easily went from $12 mil over to among the top teams in cap space.....if you have an owner willing to spend and restructure it can be done.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

espn is saying doc rivers is the next bucks head coach

 

[fightinfunbags]

Vic Fangio out as DC of the Dolphins.

Looks like he’s being linked to Eagles because he wants to get closer to his home in PA.

Not sure how to feel about this:
I wanted them to change philosophy on defense and become more aggressive instead of the bend don’t break that has become so popular in a copy cat league. However, if you’re gonna go with this philosophy you might as well go with one of the better guys at running that scheme. It goes a long way to repair what was an unprofessional exhibition of malpractice from defensive coaching this year. At least this DC has experience and won’t be a deer in the headlights.

Scheme doesn’t matter though if the Eagles don’t improve defensive personnel. They should be fine at outside corner with Slay and Ringo. They need to address slot corner and both safeties positions in that secondary. They need a whole new crop of LBs with Nakobe Dean being seen as a third or fourth LB not a top two guy.

Eagles are all set at DT but should look for one more edge rusher.

Secondary needs the most work and should get the attention of both draft capital and FA money.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Vic Fangio out as DC of the Dolphins.

Looks like he’s being linked to Eagles because he wants to get closer to his home in PA.

Not sure how to feel about this:
I wanted them to change philosophy on defense and become more aggressive instead of the bend don’t break that has become so popular in a copy cat league. However, if you’re gonna go with this philosophy you might as well go with one of the better guys at running that scheme. It goes a long way to repair what was an unprofessional exhibition of malpractice from defensive coaching this year. At least this DC has experience and won’t be a deer in the headlights.

Scheme doesn’t matter though if the Eagles don’t improve defensive personnel. They should be fine at outside corner with Slay and Ringo. They need to address slot corner and both safeties positions in that secondary. They need a whole new crop of LBs with Nakobe Dean being seen as a third or fourth LB not a top two guy.

Eagles are all set at DT but should look for one more edge rusher.

Secondary needs the most work and should get the attention of both draft capital and FA money.

I just heard this and was about to come in here and tag you.

I think he would be a solid for for the Iggles.

 

[bksballer89]