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Name the percentage of chance Bama gets back to NCG

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Alabama needs 2 of 3 to lose; Oregon, Kansas State, Notre Dame. They also need to beat a pretty lousy Auburn team, then beat a pretty talented Georgia team in the SEC.CG. Here are the team's opponents:

Oregon plays vs Stanford, @ Oregon St, and winner of USC & UCLA in CCG.

Kansas State has @ Baylor and vs Texas, no CCG.

Notre Dame basically has @ USC left.

(Trolling aside) List the percentages you actually think Alabama has of making it back.
 

Robotech

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yeodonie

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I think Oregon has about a 70% chance of winning next 3

I think ND has about 50% chance

I think KSU has about 90%

Math wizards figure it out from there. Need at least two of above to lose
 

Robotech

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I think Oregon has about a 70% chance of winning next 3

I think ND has about 50% chance

I think KSU has about 90%

Math wizards figure it out from there. Need at least two of above to lose

You'd also need to factor in the chances of Alabama winning the rest of their games, which I would put as a pretty high possibility.
 

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Robotech

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LOL, you are taking a crack at the media and BCS's love for the SEC, while BadMotoWeazal is acknowledging it.
 
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I have it at 40% which is less than a coin toss but not bad when you consider that we dont control our own destiny. The most likely to lose is Notre Dame and i put the chances of them losing at no less than 65%. USC will be the vegas favorite and they get them at home. I think ND has been poised to lose all year just couldnt find the team to finish them off (purdue & pitt), USC will do it.

Kstate is a team that unfortunately i havent gotten to watch much this season. I know that Collin Klein is having another great year and that their Defense is improved and playing well. I know they will be the favorite to beat Baylor away and prob even a decent fav vs Texas at home. I feel Texas is improving and has the athelets and experience with the spread to slow down the Kstate attack while putting up a good many points of their own.

Oregon will be the def favorite in all three games. The danger is not in losing any one game but the fact that they have to get up for 3 potential challenges in a row. Stanford may not have the horses to hang around in the 4th but they have the ability to play smash mouth and beat up an already banged up Duck squad. Then they play a tough rival away who will be pumped up to beat them. After all that they will either face a USC team has the potential to beat them or a 2 face UCLA team that you never know what to expect. I feel Oregon wins out, but the chances of them dropping one arent any less than the chances of Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State last year.

Bama will face a good opponent in UGA but i think we can get it done. This matchup is more in our favor and our defense will be able to handle them.

I put it at 40%. If we didnt have to play UGA id have it an even coin toss. If you dont think that teams have the ability to drop one to a slightly lesser foe, then you havent watched enough college football.
 
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Robotech

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I have it at 40% which is less than a coin toss but not bad when you consider that we dont control our own destiny. The most likely to lose is Notre Dame and i put the chances of them losing at no less than 65%. USC will be the vegas favorite and they get them at home. I think ND has been poised to lose all year just couldnt find the team to finish them off (purdue & pitt), USC will do it.

Kstate is a team that unfortunately i havent gotten to watch much this season. I know that Collin Klein is having another great year and that their Defense is improved and playing well. I know they will be the favorite to beat Baylor away and prob even a decent fav vs Texas at home. I feel Texas is improving and has the athelets and experience with the spread to slow down the Kstate attack while putting up a good many points of their own.

Oregon will be the def favorite in all three games. The danger is not in losing any one game but the fact that they have to get up for 3 potential challenges in a row. Stanford may not have the horses to hang around in the 4th but they have the ability to play smash mouth and beat up an already banged up Duck squad. Then they play a tough rival away who will be pumped up to beat them. After all that they will either face a USC team has the potential to beat them or a 2 face UCLA team that you never know what to expect. I feel Oregon wins out, but the chances of them dropping one arent any less greater than the chances of Oklahoma State losing to Iowa State last year.

Bama will face a good opponent in UGA but i think we can get it done. This matchup is more in our favor and our defense will be able to handle them.

I put it at 40%. If we didnt have to play UGA id have it an even coin toss. If you dont think that teams have the ability to drop one to a slightly lesser foe, then you havent watched enough college football.

40% is way too high, but they still have a decent chance. I want to see them make it even though I always root against the SEC. It just wouldn't feel like a real national championship game if the SEC is not there.

LOL. You didn't even bother to mention Auburn.
 

ugafan6612

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I'd say about 30%
Notre Dame is obviously what most would say is the most likely to lose.
After that I'd put Kansas State in there
And finally Oregon
 
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