POLL Mike Sando's 2022 QB Tier

[rmilia1]

I don’t think so. Browns have a way better opportunity than the Falcons and Seahawks to showcase Jimmy’s value, imo. Browns could even trade him midseason theoretically.

We shall see. My guess is if he gets cut he's going somewhere he can try to stay long term. I just don't see him being to the point now that he needs to showcase what he can do. Seattle will hand him the keys without needing to do that imo

Even if the Browns think they have a 50/50 shot to get him after he's cut i don't see why you risk being wrongb when you can send a 5th then trade him later once Watson is ready to go

Seems like an unnecessary risk

 

[PDay8810]

I think there's a difference between saying Herbert is a stud and saying he's in the top tier with Mahomes.

Ok

For many years now I seldom say the word great

 

[dtgold88]

Right. That's my point. Why risk him getting cut if youre the Browns? Just go get him. You're not likely to get him one he gets cut and you can always turn around and trade him yourself once a starter gets hurt this year if Watson is back

would it really be so easy to move him and his contract midseason? Hard enough to do it now.

 

[PDay8810]

When have I ever said Herbert stinks, though?

I wouldn't have replied

 

[DJ Fieri]

Am I the only one to notice potato salad isn't an option?

 

[PDay8810]

Am I the only one to notice potato salad isn't an option?

Most likely

 

[shopson67]

Clutch isn't a repeatable skill.

Skill is.

Stafford ranks 25th in Adjusted EPA/Play since 2009 including postseason. That's not tier 1. It's not really even tier 2. Guys like Mac Jones are outpacing him.

Stafford has had OL help and WR help in Detroit. Sure his defenses were generally a joke, but those are defenses. That doesn't let HIM off the hook no matter how much Stafford stans want to say it is.

Except that Stafford seems to be repeating that clutch gene. Even with the Lions, he led a lot of comebacks.

Your EPA/play stat isn't solely on the QB, which is why it fails here. We've seen what Stafford can do with talent around him, and that is what he will have moving forward. Why assume regression, other than age/injury potential? He should be better with more time in the offense, healthy RBs and the addition of Allen Robinson. The teams in his division aren't exactly improving around him, with Seattle notably tanking and SF ready to turn their offense over to a green QB.

 

[shopson67]

Tartt catches an INT in the NFCCG and this isn't much of a discussion. Clutch also isn't a repeatable skill. If Stafford does it again, we can talk about tier 2 going forward.

NFL Fourth Quarter Comebacks Active Leaders | Pro-Football-Reference.com

1. Matthew Stafford (35), 2. Russell Wilson (31), 3. Derek Carr (28), 4. Ryan Tannehill (26), 5. Andy Dalton (25),

www.pro-football-reference.com

 

[PDay8810]

My nickle opinion, Stafford has flashed his top end throwing ability in high school. Landed many offers to which he chose SEC and kinda pioneered Texas high end recruits for the exposure opportunities in that direction. Worked out well.

Sometimes his mistakes aren't overcome

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Except that Stafford seems to be repeating that clutch gene. Even with the Lions, he led a lot of comebacks.

Your EPA/play stat isn't solely on the QB, which is why it fails here. We've seen what Stafford can do with talent around him, and that is what he will have moving forward. Why assume regression, other than age/injury potential? He should be better with more time in the offense, healthy RBs and the addition of Allen Robinson. The teams in his division aren't exactly improving around him, with Seattle notably tanking and SF ready to turn their offense over to a green QB.

Derek Carr has a lot of comebacks too, he gets a lot of opportunities because his team is behind a lot. Detroit wasn't near as miserable offensively in Stafford's tenure as some people in here want to pretend either. This was the same basic argument for Tannehill a couple years back. Except he didn't win a SB.

EPA/Play isn't entirely QB based, but it is very strongly QB based. It's not the same tier as say QBwinz by any means. It's certainly more predictive than "comebacks" and subjective definitions of clutch. The argument for his regressing is pretty easy: He hasn't sustained it before with notable offensive talent in Detroit. That's it. That's the argument. It's ok to say he's the 12th or so best QB in the NFL.

 

[Clayton]

So I think these are the guys that should be expected to win playoff games every year:

1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Josh Allen
5. Justin Herbert
6. Joe Burrow
7. Deshaun Watson

Brady has done it on two teams. Finds a way out of tough situations on a regular basis. Rodgers doesn't, but he has been the best offensive player in the league the past two seasons. Mahomes is the king of 'street ball' but has shown that he can be on a contender without the deep ball. Allen is Captain Hero Ball. Hard to put him higher when the Bills lost every close game last season but he is really, really good at hero ball.

Watson was literally given the guaranteed bag sweepstakes and he is the worst leader you could want for your team. I think the NFL in general is high enough on him for him to have top tier expectations if he does actually play.

I think the next tier are the guys who could win if everything goes right around them (Stafford being a great example) but I dont think they're expectations are as high as tier 1 to carry their team.

#8. Russell Wilson
#9. Matthew Stafford
#10. Dak Prescott
#11. Derek Carr
#12. Kirk Cousins
#13. Kyler Murray
#14. Lamar Jackson
#15. Matt Ryan

I do think Lamar Jackson is an interesting case of someone who will either rise back into tier 1 or fall into tier 3. Ryan and Murray also have that potential to fall into tier 3.

 

[shopson67]

Derek Carr has a lot of comebacks too, he gets a lot of opportunities because his team is behind a lot. Detroit wasn't near as miserable offensively in Stafford's tenure as some people in here want to pretend either. This was the same basic argument for Tannehill a couple years back. Except he didn't win a SB.

EPA/Play isn't entirely QB based, but it is very strongly QB based. It's not the same tier as say QBwinz by any means. It's certainly more predictive than "comebacks" and subjective definitions of clutch. The argument for his regressing is pretty easy: He hasn't sustained it before with notable offensive talent in Detroit. That's it. That's the argument. It's ok to say he's the 12th or so best QB in the NFL.

Take a look at Detroit's running game, or rather the void that was labeled a running game.

I'm not objecting to his ranking necessarily, more the reasoning you're using to back it. When you react to dissenting opinions by calling them stans, your objectivity is immediately in question.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Take a look at Detroit's running game, or rather the void that was labeled a running game.

I'm not objecting to his ranking necessarily, more the reasoning you're using to back it. When you react to dissenting opinions by calling them stans, your objectivity is immediately in question.

I feel similarly about calling Stafford a tier 2 QB, and justifying it with clutchiness and excuses about how his previous stop of many years doesn't count. I don't think that needs to be coddled in the same way I don't take people saying Kirk Cousins is an elite QB seriously.

 

[PDay8810]

So I think these are the guys that should be expected to win playoff games every year:

1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Josh Allen
5. Justin Herbert
6. Joe Burrow
7. Deshaun Watson

Brady has done it on two teams. Finds a way out of tough situations on a regular basis. Rodgers doesn't, but he has been the best offensive player in the league the past two seasons. Mahomes is the king of 'street ball' but has shown that he can be on a contender without the deep ball. Allen is Captain Hero Ball. Hard to put him higher when the Bills lost every close game last season but he is really, really good at hero ball.

Watson was literally given the guaranteed bag sweepstakes and he is the worst leader you could want for your team. I think the NFL in general is high enough on him for him to have top tier expectations if he does actually play.

I think the next tier are the guys who could win if everything goes right around them (Stafford being a great example) but I dont think they're expectations are as high as tier 1 to carry their team.

#8. Russell Wilson
#9. Matthew Stafford
#10. Dak Prescott
#11. Derek Carr
#12. Kirk Cousins
#13. Kyler Murray
#14. Lamar Jackson
#15. Matt Ryan

I do think Lamar Jackson is an interesting case of someone who will either rise back into tier 1 or fall into tier 3. Ryan and Murray also have that potential to fall into tier 3.

Good stuff
Why Watson?

 

[shopson67]

So I think these are the guys that should be expected to win playoff games every year:

1. Tom Brady
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Patrick Mahomes
4. Josh Allen
5. Justin Herbert
6. Joe Burrow
7. Deshaun Watson

Brady has done it on two teams. Finds a way out of tough situations on a regular basis. Rodgers doesn't, but he has been the best offensive player in the league the past two seasons. Mahomes is the king of 'street ball' but has shown that he can be on a contender without the deep ball. Allen is Captain Hero Ball. Hard to put him higher when the Bills lost every close game last season but he is really, really good at hero ball.

Watson was literally given the guaranteed bag sweepstakes and he is the worst leader you could want for your team. I think the NFL in general is high enough on him for him to have top tier expectations if he does actually play.

I think the next tier are the guys who could win if everything goes right around them (Stafford being a great example) but I dont think they're expectations are as high as tier 1 to carry their team.

#8. Russell Wilson
#9. Matthew Stafford
#10. Dak Prescott
#11. Derek Carr
#12. Kirk Cousins
#13. Kyler Murray
#14. Lamar Jackson
#15. Matt Ryan

I do think Lamar Jackson is an interesting case of someone who will either rise back into tier 1 or fall into tier 3. Ryan and Murray also have that potential to fall into tier 3.

What reasoning places Russ and Watson above Stafford based on past results? Fit with a new franchise certainly puts some question on both at least temporarily. Watson has the label of a garbage time QB by many.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

What reasoning places Russ and Watson above Stafford based on past results? Fit with a new franchise certainly puts some question on both at least temporarily. Watson has the label of a garbage time QB by many.

Pretty much every efficiency measure you can think of in modern football discourse. Maybe could get away with Wilson last year.

 

[rmilia1]

would it really be so easy to move him and his contract midseason? Hard enough to do it now.

I think it'll be easier midseason actually ( one a few teams lose starters ) but even if you've got to wait til next offseason it doesn't cost you anything other than a little bit of money. Shit what if he plays great in CLE with all that talent around him and you get more next offseason than you gave up for him? Certainly possible

 

[shopson67]

I feel similarly about calling Stafford a tier 2 QB, and justifying it with clutchiness and excuses about how his previous stop of many years doesn't count. I don't think that needs to be coddled in the same way I don't take people saying Kirk Cousins is an elite QB seriously.

Behind Watson is pretty tough to defend.

 

[PDay8810]

What reasoning places Russ and Watson above Stafford based on past results?

No clue with Watson but I can't jump Stafford ahead of Wilson for last year. Not yet.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Behind Watson is pretty tough to defend.

No it’s not. Watson has been a borderline top 5 QB. He was the Josh Allen of the discourse before Josh Allen figured it out and Watson get pulled off stage. That’s one of the easiest calls ever to say Watson>Stafford