Mel Kipers big board

[ATL96Steeler]

All Qbs are scary when you look at college tape because no one is teaching these QBs to play NFL football. A Qb from Florida St, Alabama and Oregon are all going to be unprepared heading into an NFL season just like a QB from North Dakota St, San Diego St or Memphis. I figure scouts should looking for:

1) Must have the size. Must be at least 6'1", must have large hands, must not be made of glass, mobility a plus.
2) Must be able to make a 15 yard seam throw over a CB and under the S
3) Must be able to make a throw to a receiver in the corner of an end zone 1 on 1
4) Must be able to look at one guy to make a LB/S move and then throw it to another
5) Must be smart and love the game of football

Most college programs aren't teaching guys to do #4 and aren't putting them in situations to do #3. Most college teams aren't playing good enough defenses to test them on #2. #5 is obviously not a requirement as shown by guys like Manziel.

So how do you evaluate Goff, Lynch and Hackenberg when all of their teammates were bad? Hackenberg in particular was awful but was a pro prospect in a spread system. He was god's gift to QB prospects going to Penn St, though, but they screwed him up and he has no real football IQ and no pocket presence. Lynch is basically an average QB prospect that needs time to grow. Honestly, thats a round 2 thing. If I'm drafting a QB in round 1, I want the upside to be through the roof or I want to be able to start him day 1. I think Goff and Wentz will likely start Day 1.

Clayton...you spelled it out so well up top...in a nutshell, CFB doesn't prepare QBs for the next level. The read option stuff starts in HS. The college coaches know they only have 3 yrs with a pro caliber prospect...can't blame them for trying to get the most production possible which means a shorter learning curve.

Goff and Wentz imo might be better day one starters than Lynch, but none of them are ready for the keys. The team is still looking at a losing season or barely .500 with them at the helm. IMO the team that puts the best talent around the rookie QB will get the best results in terms of wins and losses.

 

[shopson67]

I actually think Houston needs more immediate help. I get the fit but I see him going to Dallas or San Diego or maybe Arizona. Hackenberg isnt going to be worth it until his 2nd contract. How many teams can absorb a Blaine Gabbert type of learning curve?

Where they are picking, I don't think there is immediate help available. Outside of maybe the top 2 QBs, the rest should be sitting and learning for a year IMO.

 

[Clayton]

Where they are picking, I don't think there is immediate help available.

Which is why they'll trade up.

edit: sorry I thought you were talking about the Rams. Who knows about Houston. RG3 would be my guess.

 

[shopson67]

Clayton...you spelled it out so well up top...in a nutshell, CFB doesn't prepare QBs for the next level. The read option stuff starts in HS. The college coaches know they only have 3 yrs with a pro caliber prospect...can't blame them for trying to get the most production possible which means a shorter learning curve.

Goff and Wentz imo might be better day one starters than Lynch, but none of them are ready for the keys. The team is still looking at a losing season or barely .500 with them at the helm. IMO the team that puts the best talent around the rookie QB will get the best results in terms of wins and losses.

From the couple of Wentz games I have seen, his only knock is level of competition (but that also means he's playing behind a D-1AA line with D-1AA receivers, etc). He has the build, the mobility, calls plays in the huddle, looks off safeties, and doesn't spend every play in the shotgun. I think Goff has better touch and throwing talent, if a weaker arm, but the spread puts him behind on the learning curve.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

From the couple of Wentz games I have seen, his only knock is level of competition (but that also means he's playing behind a D-1AA line with D-1AA receivers, etc). He has the build, the mobility, calls plays in the huddle, looks off safeties, and doesn't spend every play in the shotgun. I think Goff has better touch and throwing talent, if a weaker arm, but the spread puts him behind on the learning curve.

How well you're coached up and the talent around you makes a huge difference. It helps that Wentz played in more of a pro style OFC...no question, but in terms of being an effective QB on a winning team...not in '16 imo for any of these QBs. The teams they are going to all have other major holes to fill.

A lot of people felt Bortles was head shoulders above Carr...do they think that now?

 

[shopson67]

How well you're coached up and the talent around you makes a huge difference. It helps that Wentz played in more of a pro style OFC...no question, but in terms of being an effective QB on a winning team...not in '16 imo for any of these QBs. The teams they are going to all have other major holes to fill.

A lot of people felt Bortles was head shoulders above Carr...do they think that now?

I still like Bortles. As the team improves around him, I think he can become Roethlisberger-lite essentially. Carr throws a beautiful ball, but I'm not convinced with him yet. He started strong this year then really dropped off.

 

[Clayton]

A lot of people felt Bortles was head shoulders above Carr...do they think that now?

Carr looked sooo bad in college. Threw a ton of screen passes and when he finally played a real team in USC he really stunk up the joint. Lynch is a lot like Carr but maybe not quite the same arm talent.

I think Carr and Bortles are pretty even moving forward but Carr having the higher upside. I do think Bortles could be Cam without the wheels but Cam's mobility is a big reason why he is so great. I don't think Bortles is as accurate as Big Ben. Generally Bortles will be flirting with fringe top 10 QB status for most of his career imo.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

My point here is most of the powers that be thought Bortles was the guy and everyone else was way below. Bridgewater was shunned off a bad pro day? Carr slipped into the 2nd and right now all 3 are fairly close to each other in terms of performance....HOU probably had some hangups b/c of his brother, but they passed on Carr twice!

I'd be thrilled to get him in the 2nd rd, but if I needed a QB, I wouldn't be afraid of Lynch in the 1st round if everything checks out at the combine.

Heck...if the Jets or Texans get one of the 2nd tier guys like Cook, etc. they might not be as talented, but might be more productive in terms of wins and losses because they have a better supporting cast.

 

[Clayton]

My point here is most of the powers that be thought Bortles was the guy and everyone else was way below. Bridgewater was shunned off a bad pro day? Carr slipped into the 2nd and right now all 3 are fairly close to each other in terms of performance....HOU probably had some hangups b/c of his brother, but they passed on Carr twice!

Whats really weird is that people who follow the draft on the outside had:

1. Bridgewater
2. Bortles
3. Carr
4. Mettenberger as a sleeper

No casual fan thought Bortles was going to be good. I did a mock draft on here and traded up to get Bortles around pick 20 which is kinda nuts. Bridgewater went top 5 in our board mock draft. Then the pro days hit and all of the scouts were like 'we still like Bridgewater but all of the insiders say he is bad so we are moving him down'

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Whats really weird is that people who follow the draft on the outside had:

1. Bridgewater
2. Bortles
3. Carr
4. Mettenberger as a sleeper

No casual fan thought Bortles was going to be good. I did a mock draft on here and traded up to get Bortles around pick 20 which is kinda nuts. Bridgewater went top 5 in our board mock draft. Then the pro days hit and all of the scouts were like 'we still like Bridgewater but all of the insiders say he is bad so we are moving him down'

Yep...just goes to show that it's not really a perfect science...especially QBs. TB & TN have made a big investments...now they need to get the talent around those kids to allow them the best chance for success....starting over 5 or 6 yrs from now at the position is a recipe for being a perennial top 10 drafting team.

 

[Clayton]

Yep...just goes to show that it's not really a perfect science...especially QBs. TB & TN have made a big investments...now they need to get the talent around those kids to allow them the best chance for success....starting over 5 or 6 yrs from now at the position is a recipe for being a perennial top 10 drafting team.

Tennessee is in a much better spot than Tampa. I believe Tennessee is still fairly young and they are in a position where they can fix a lot of their issues in this offseason.

Tennessee's defense is nothing special but Tampa's is a trainwreck. Carolina is also going to own their division the next 2-3 years at least and the Falcons are a frisky team.

 

[shopson67]

Bridgewater was shunned off a bad pro day?

That Bridgewater pro day fiasco was ridiculous. The kid plays with gloves, but made a horrible decision to not wear them for his pro day. He has really small hands (9 1/4"), and beyond that is accustomed to playing with gloves. Not surprising his accuracy plummeted without them.

One of the supposed damning things about Cook is that he wasn't a team captain. Sounds like that Draft Day movie, lol. No teammates at his birthday party lol.

 

[cdumler7]

This might sound crazy now but I am going to put it out there in I think the Broncos could be looking at QB in round 1. They are wanting to keep this defense together and I just can't see them doing that with signing Osweiler as well. So if they can get a QB on that 1st round 5 year deal then they have the funds to keep this defense together for the next 4-5 years.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Tennessee is in a much better spot than Tampa. I believe Tennessee is still fairly young and they are in a position where they can fix a lot of their issues in this offseason.

Tennessee's defense is nothing special but Tampa's is a trainwreck. Carolina is also going to own their division the next 2-3 years at least and the Falcons are a frisky team.

I might go the other way here...Tampa has 2 pro bowl caliber players on DEF...McCoy, & David, the CBs are much improved...and the OFC has 3 targets for Winston that can start for any team in the league.

Both teams really need the same thing on DEF...a big time pass rusher, but top to bottom I'd take the Bucs roster over the Titans.

CAR...on paper you would think they have at least another yr or two on the DIV, and ATL & NO have QBs so from that standpoint the Titans might be able to turn it around a little quicker, but I expect IND to rebound, HOU to pretty much stay where they are and JAX is on the rise albeit a slow rise.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

That Bridgewater pro day fiasco was ridiculous. The kid plays with gloves, but made a horrible decision to not wear them for his pro day. He has really small hands (9 1/4"), and beyond that is accustomed to playing with gloves. Not surprising his accuracy plummeted without them.

One of the supposed damning things about Cook is that he wasn't a team captain. Sounds like that Draft Day movie, lol. No teammates at his birthday party lol.

I just found it interesting that teams would jump off the bandwagon on the heels on 1 workout when they had a an entire season of tape to look at.

 

[cowboycolors]

my is I want Wentz because I think Goff will go to the QB hell of Cleveland. If Cleveland takes Wentz then the Cowboys take Goff. My wish is most likely not on Jerrys list

Who knows lots of time before the draft

 

[Stomp]

Mike Mayock's 2016 NFL Draft position rankings

 

[Stomp]

Bosa and Buckner top PFF's first 2016 NFL Draft Board

 

[cowboycolors]

mels new board has Dallas Taking Goff

That's fine by me

 

[Tharvot]

In Kiper's latest mock draft he had Bosa going #6 overall

Sure, the guy you think is #1 overall will fall to 6, as 2 teams draft other defensive personnel ahead of him. Makes sense.

Personally, I kinda want the Browns to take Bosa at #2 overall and worry about a QB later on. None of the current crop wows me much.