Series Thread: Mariners vs Marlins, April 17th-19th

[NWinAZ]

m's are 5-2 at home, and 1-6 on the road

funny game that baseball

Two of those road game losses came in the very last AB's for the home team. We could be 3-4 on the road which would be respectable...but 'could be' is a such a fickle term.

 

[dude82]

It was nice to get a comfortable win after such a close win on Sunday. It's too bad they couldn't get the shutout, but I'll take the win either way. The win also moved the M's into a tie for second place in the AL West. Obviously being below .500 still takes the positivity in that statement down a notch, but if things go right over the next couple of days they can go from being in last place in the division to being a game and a half out of first in less than a week.

This is why you can't panic this early in the season if things don't go right, even if every impulse you have is to say "Here we go again". We have Gallardo going in game 2 looking for a bounce back start, followed by Felix on Wednesday afternoon looking to continue his good start to 2017. The starting pitching has been the strength of the team so far this year and the hitting is starting to come around too. This isn't the start to the season we expected or wanted, but there are reasons to be positive going forward.

 

[DunceKaep]

So, we talked at weekly poker group tonight.
I mentioned that Motter deserves time at 1st base when Segura returns,
Remember Mark McLemore (SP) who played wherever, but played 80%.

Yes, I enjoyed that, and Motter might be this guy. Play this guy. Please.

Discussion was, will Manager play the unknown HOT guy over a FA signee?




Thoughts, before Motter cools off or Valencia gets hot.

 

[dude82]

I don't like the idea of giving up on guys in April, especially since Valencia is and was hardly the only veteran starter on this team to be hitting under the Mendoza line so far. Two other guys still in the starting lineup are currently batting south of .200 and it wasn't that long ago that guys like Cano, Cruz and Seager were all hovering at or below .200 themselves.

I love what Motter has been able to do with the amount of playing time he's gotten since Segura went down and I'd hate to see him go back to being a guy who might play once or a twice a week considering how hot his bat has been, but I just can't see Servais giving up on Valencia just yet and starting Motter in his place. I think that when Segura gets back, we'll see Motter and Valencia split time at first base. I know people would rather see Motter get the job full-time instead and that might still happen at some point this season, but I think Valencia is going to get more time to try to climb out of the hole he's dug for himself. If it doesn't turn around for him by early May, that's when we might see a move to make Motter the full-time first baseman.

The other thing we have to remember here is that Valencia wasn't supposed to be the full-time starter anyway. It was supposed to be a platoon with Vogelbach, but Vogelbach didn't show enough in Spring Training to make the team and Valencia got the full-time job instead. Having a hot hitting Motter available to take that platoon spot that Vogelbach was trying for could be good for both players. We'll see what happens.

 

[Destroydacre]

I don't like the idea of giving up on guys in April, especially since Valencia is and was hardly the only veteran starter on this team to be hitting under the Mendoza line so far. Two other guys still in the starting lineup are currently batting south of .200 and it wasn't that long ago that guys like Cano, Cruz and Seager were all hovering at or below .200 themselves.

I love what Motter has been able to do with the amount of playing time he's gotten since Segura went down and I'd hate to see him go back to being a guy who might play once or a twice a week considering how hot his bat has been, but I just can't see Servais giving up on Valencia just yet and starting Motter in his place. I think that when Segura gets back, we'll see Motter and Valencia split time at first base. I know people would rather see Motter get the job full-time instead and that might still happen at some point this season, but I think Valencia is going to get more time to try to climb out of the hole he's dug for himself. If it doesn't turn around for him by early May, that's when we might see a move to make Motter the full-time first baseman.

The other thing we have to remember here is that Valencia wasn't supposed to be the full-time starter anyway. It was supposed to be a platoon with Vogelbach, but Vogelbach didn't show enough in Spring Training to make the team and Valencia got the full-time job instead. Having a hot hitting Motter available to take that platoon spot that Vogelbach was trying for could be good for both players. We'll see what happens.

Sticking with the tired old retread and having the young up and comer ride the pine would definitely fit in with traditional M's convention. Personally this time I hope you are wrong. I don't think it's too early to give up on Valencia at all, we've seen dozens of Valencia's pass through this organization over the years. Give the kid a chance to make his mark. How many guys do the M's call up that actually hit well? Let him take the job and run with it, if he is able. JMO.

 

[JMR]

Thoughts, before Motter cools off or Valencia gets hot.

I don't like the idea of giving up on guys in April....I think that when Segura gets back, we'll see Motter and Valencia split time at first base.

This is probably close to how it will go. You can split them at 1B and then split Motter in LF with Dyson, then that would have Motter out there 2/3 of the time or so.

Valencia hasn't done anything so far, but Servais does have to be aware of the message he sends to both vets and younger players if he's considering benching someone for a cold couple weeks. More players will go through that at some point during the season, some of which will have vital roles in the overall success of the team.

 

[JMR]

Turning into a pretty good homestand. The starting pitching continues to be mostly strong, and the speed & defense is coming through along with the bigger bats. Seager hasn't heated up at the plate but his defense has been pretty consistent after a couple early flubs.

You get to the bottom of your rotation and sorta take what you can get, so tonight's game is gravy with Gallardo out there and Felix going tomorrow. Still lots of work to do, but these last several games have looked a lot more like what we had expected to see from this team.

 

[PolarVortex]

I may go postal if I see the lineup with Valencia at first and Motter on the bench.

Pretty good lineup:
Segura
Haniger
Cano
Cruz
Seager
Motter
Black Hole
Black Hole
Dyson

 

[dude82]

Sticking with the tired old retread and having the young up and comer ride the pine would definitely fit in with traditional M's convention. Personally this time I hope you are wrong. I don't think it's too early to give up on Valencia at all, we've seen dozens of Valencia's pass through this organization over the years. Give the kid a chance to make his mark. How many guys do the M's call up that actually hit well? Let him take the job and run with it, if he is able. JMO.

JMR brought up some good points. I think it's easy to overreact to a cold start than it is to react to, say, a cold couple of weeks in July. We're still early enough in the season to where batting averages can be swayed heavily by a 3 for 4 day and an 0 for 4 day. Case in point: Motter's batting average is sitting at .321 right now. If he goes 0 for 4 today (I hope he doesn't), that average drops 40 points to .281. If he goes 0 for 4 again tomorrow, that average drops another 31 points down to .250. Hell, a couple of 4 for 4 days in a row out of Valencia and he's suddenly hitting .281.

Obviously asking someone who has struggled the way Valencia has to go 4 for 4 two days in a row is asking a lot, but the point is that this time of year it doesn't take much to raise your batting average a ton or to kill it quickly. Cano, Cruz and Seager are starting to climb out of their early funks and the only two reasons they're given a pass is that they make too much money to just get rid of and they've established themselves as much better hitters than their first two weeks of 2017 would suggest that they are. The old Mariners would have stuck with a player like Valencia far beyond mid April and I don't think Servais or Dipoto will do that. Giving him until May to figure things out isn't beyond reason I don't think. Servais will find a way to get Motter at-bats after Segura comes back in the meantime.

 

[PolarVortex]

JMR brought up some good points. I think it's easy to overreact to a cold start than it is to react to, say, a cold couple of weeks in July. We're still early enough in the season to where batting averages can be swayed heavily by a 3 for 4 day and an 0 for 4 day. Case in point: Motter's batting average is sitting at .321 right now. If he goes 0 for 4 today (I hope he doesn't), that average drops 40 points to .281. If he goes 0 for 4 again tomorrow, that average drops another 31 points down to .250. Hell, a couple of 4 for 4 days in a row out of Valencia and he's suddenly hitting .281.

Obviously asking someone who has struggled the way Valencia has to go 4 for 4 two days in a row is asking a lot, but the point is that this time of year it doesn't take much to raise your batting average a ton or to kill it quickly. Cano, Cruz and Seager are starting to climb out of their early funks and the only two reasons they're given a pass is that they make too much money to just get rid of and they've established themselves as much better hitters than their first two weeks of 2017 would suggest that they are. The old Mariners would have stuck with a player like Valencia far beyond mid April and I don't think Servais or Dipoto will do that. Giving him until May to figure things out isn't beyond reason I don't think. Servais will find a way to get Motter at-bats after Segura comes back in the meantime.

Having Motter on the bench at the expense of Valenica right now is just not smart baseball.
Sure, sooner or later the pitchers will figure out the correct adjustments to make to their approach to both Motter and Haniger. But until they do, you have to keep the hot bats in the lineup. This isn't a re-build year where we should be practicing tolerance and coddling veterans. We traded away two good young players to get two years of contract control of Segura before we lose him to free agency. That makes this season a 'win now' season. You can't compromise your ability to compete just to give an aging player, with had no previous history with the organization, a chance to get going.

 

[cezero]

hard to justify not keeping motter in the lineup if he continues like this.

what is valencia's situation with options?

i know he's not out of them.

i was thinking about scribner, too, who has been awful, but he's out of options, and jedi/servais probably don't want to drop any pen arms unless they replace them.

 

[Mariners_44]

Pretty good lineup:
Segura
Haniger
Cano
Cruz
Seager
Motter
Black Hole
Black Hole
Dyson

All things considered, 2 black holes has to be the best lineup we've had in 15 years. That being said, I would have loved to see us re-sign Saunders to play center in the offseason. He ended up in Philly, but I would have really liked the condor hovering around center while providing an upgraded bat from Martin. Although, the lineup as you've listed is a winning formula.

 

[cezero]

 

[JMR]

If we can truly put an everyday lineup together that only has 2 liabilities then we are in REALLY good shape, especially when you consider the level of defense you'll get out of Martin & Zunino.

 

[Mariners_44]

If we can truly put an everyday lineup together that only has 2 liabilities then we are in REALLY good shape, especially when you consider the level of defense you'll get out of Martin & Zunino.

That's a great point JMR.

It's easy to get down on those two because of their lack of production at the plate, but when you consider their high quality defensive skills it makes that black hole a little smaller. I mean, it's not like having Brenden Ryan's gold glove defense surrounded by Lopez & Betancourt. I like what we have overall, but have to continue to either get better or upgrade those spots.

 

[JMR]

That's a great point JMR.

It's easy to get down on those two because of their lack of production at the plate, but when you consider their high quality defensive skills it makes that black hole a little smaller. I mean, it's not like having Brenden Ryan's gold glove defense surrounded by Lopez & Betancourt. I like what we have overall, but have to continue to either get better or upgrade those spots.

That, and I don't think they'll both hit this poorly for too much longer. I don't expect Zunino to be a .250 guy, but at some point he'll hit for power and won't be striking out at such a high rate (or at least there will be some long balls to offset the Ks). And Martin should be a .250 guy with a little pop plus speed on the basepaths that gets the attention of the defense.

 

[NWinAZ]

This is why you can't panic this early in the season if things don't go right, even if every impulse you have is to say "Here we go again".

We old fans have the last 15 years to say otherwise and about 35 out of 40 years since the start, you have 1 week on your side. I like your optimism, but panic is allowed in Mariners Baseball.

 

[PolarVortex]

All things considered, 2 black holes has to be the best lineup we've had in 15 years. That being said, I would have loved to see us re-sign Saunders to play center in the offseason. He ended up in Philly, but I would have really liked the condor hovering around center while providing an upgraded bat from Martin. Although, the lineup as you've listed is a winning formula.

I agree that only two black holes is much better than we have had in a while. And I'd also like to see Freeman get a couple more starts at first base against right handed starting pitchers.

 

[cezero]

gallardo is not fun to watch

not just because he's not a very good pitcher, but because he takes forever between pitches.

 

[dude82]

We old fans have the last 15 years to say otherwise and about 35 out of 40 years since the start, you have 1 week on your side. I like your optimism, but panic is allowed in Mariners Baseball.

I've been a fan of this team for over 33 years myself, so I've been through as much with this team as pretty much everyone else here. Yet I still don't let myself give in to the "Here we go again" impulse very often, especially two weeks into the season. Valencia might turn it around soon or he might be DFA'd soon. I'm choosing to believe he'll turn it around soon. If I'm wrong, then hopefully Motter can step in and continue doing what he's been doing in the playing time he's gotten since Segura's injury. I'm just not a "glass almost empty" kind of guy.