Tournament Thread March Madness thread

[Ickey Shuffle]

I don't even want to fill out a bracket this year. I couldn't care less about the others. I'm that dialed in.

 

[iowajerms]

ESPN Insider - ESPN.com - Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets

Let's say, for the sake of discussion, you haven't been following the per-possession intricacies of the Missouri Valley Conference or the Summit League all season, but you still want to win your bracket. Giant Killers has you covered.

One proven method for putting distance between you and your competitors in the bracket pool is correctly picking a small but ultimately crucial number of upsets. Here are the 10 most likely such games in the first round, according to GK methodology.

As always at Giant Killers, we're looking exclusively at games in which an underdog defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher. Choose wisely (i.e., don't go with all 10 of these), and watch your bracket ranking soar to new heights. Good luck!

No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Upset chance: 46.5 percent

As a result of significantly better shooting ability from the field, the Ramblers are the value pick of the tournament. They have nearly a coin flip's chance over the Hurricanes, but, because they are a No. 11 seed and don't have the same name recognition, almost certainly will be advancing in fewer Tournament Challenge brackets than that.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils

Upset chance: 40.8 percent

Now that the Sun Devils are in the field by a whisker, could they actually, you know, make some noise? Danny Hurley's team is perfectly capable of upsetting a No. 6 seed (first ASU has to take care of Syracuse in Dayton). The Horned Frogs' defense is only so-so, and if Tra Holder and Shannon Evans II hit some shots early, look out.

No. 6 Houston Cougars vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs

Upset chance: 38.0 percent

The Aztecs' offense came alive the last two games of the Mountain West tournament, and a new high-scoring version of Brian Dutcher's team figures to be a tough out. Trey Kell and Jalen McDaniels will give a very good Houston defense a surprisingly tough test. The Cougars better be ready, but make no mistake: This would be a huge win for SDSU over an excellent Houston team.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange

Upset chance: 36.1 percent

Jamie Dixon had the best offense in the league during Big 12 play, but even the Horned Frogs will face a daunting task in the form of the Syracuse defense, assuming the Orange make it that far. Playing against a zone isn't necessarily an insurmountable challenge, but Paschal Chukwu and Marek Dolezaj give this particular zone some really good size.

No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins

Upset chance: 35.8 percent

It's like the Chip Kelly sweepstakes all over again! And just like Kelly's football teams, these Bruins are all offense. Their shooting is what gives them a decent chance to beat the much-more-battle-tested Gators.

No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 12 Murray State Racers

Upset chance: 32.2 percent

You know Bob Huggins is going to bring the heat, and that could be a problem for Murray State, which dropped from a 93rd percentile offense overall (without opponent adjustments) to a 65th percentile offense against the press, per Synergy Sports. But if they can beat the pressure, the Racers can knock down shots from downtown.

No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Upset chance: 32.0 percent

Of the four Giant Killing star players we profiled in February, St. Bonaventure's Jaylen Adams was the only one to get his team to the tournament. Here's the abridged version: His limitless range means he can start raining down 3-pointers at any point -- and Florida, which had the 241st-worst 3-point defense in Division I, ought to watch out.

No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Davidson Wildcats

Upset chance: 31.7 percent

Kentucky finds itself on this list because John Calipari's squad is more reputation than results at this point. Some will cling to the memory of 2014 and push Kentucky through without thinking, but our model says Davidson doesn't need a Steph Curry to bounce this blue blood in the opening round.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Upset chance: 25.2 percent

This is certainly one of the best star vs. star matchups of the first round: Keita Bates-Diop vs. Mike Daum. They're both high-efficiency featured scorers with good size who also take care of the dirty work on the defensive glass for their teams. This is the Jackrabbits' third consecutive trip to the tournament, but this team is arguably the best of the three.

No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars

Upset chance: 13.8 percent

Auburn loves a fast pace, but the Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in D-I. So this game will happen at Earl Grant's preferred speed, and, more importantly, Charleston has prolific scorers of its own in Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. If Bruce Pearl's Tigers are going to have a chance to do their run-and-shoot-3s thing in this tournament, they'll have to take care of the Cougars first.

 

[Hitman Hart]

UMBC went from being one of the worst programs (7 straight 20 loss seasons) in the nation to having back-to-back 20 win seasons. Ryan Odom has done a hell of a job.

 

[Deep Creek]

UMBC went from being one of the worst programs (7 straight 20 loss seasons) in the nation to having back-to-back 20 win seasons. Ryan Odom has done a hell of a job.

Which big money job will he be at next season?

 

[Hitman Hart]

Which big money job will he be at next season?

Hopefully none. He is the son of former Wake coach Dave Odom.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Boom

15-13

 

[DJ Fieri]

I can't wait!!!!

 

[Deep Creek]

Hopefully none. He is the son of former Wake coach Dave Odom.

So, you guys are waiting to snatch him then!

 

[Hitman Hart]

So, you guys are waiting to snatch him then!

Going to be an interesting off-season. Wes Miller (UNCG), Pat Kelsey (Winthrop) and Ryan Odom (UMBC) all have ties to Wake, so I would like to see them stay at their respective schools for one more year. If Wake isn't a solid tournament team next year, Danny is toast. Which would be unfortunate, b/c I like DM as a person.

 

[SU Nittany Tide]

ESPN Insider - ESPN.com - Giant Killers' 10 most likely first-round upsets

Let's say, for the sake of discussion, you haven't been following the per-possession intricacies of the Missouri Valley Conference or the Summit League all season, but you still want to win your bracket. Giant Killers has you covered.

One proven method for putting distance between you and your competitors in the bracket pool is correctly picking a small but ultimately crucial number of upsets. Here are the 10 most likely such games in the first round, according to GK methodology.

As always at Giant Killers, we're looking exclusively at games in which an underdog defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher. Choose wisely (i.e., don't go with all 10 of these), and watch your bracket ranking soar to new heights. Good luck!

No. 6 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Upset chance: 46.5 percent

As a result of significantly better shooting ability from the field, the Ramblers are the value pick of the tournament. They have nearly a coin flip's chance over the Hurricanes, but, because they are a No. 11 seed and don't have the same name recognition, almost certainly will be advancing in fewer Tournament Challenge brackets than that.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils

Upset chance: 40.8 percent

Now that the Sun Devils are in the field by a whisker, could they actually, you know, make some noise? Danny Hurley's team is perfectly capable of upsetting a No. 6 seed (first ASU has to take care of Syracuse in Dayton). The Horned Frogs' defense is only so-so, and if Tra Holder and Shannon Evans II hit some shots early, look out.

No. 6 Houston Cougars vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs

Upset chance: 38.0 percent

The Aztecs' offense came alive the last two games of the Mountain West tournament, and a new high-scoring version of Brian Dutcher's team figures to be a tough out. Trey Kell and Jalen McDaniels will give a very good Houston defense a surprisingly tough test. The Cougars better be ready, but make no mistake: This would be a huge win for SDSU over an excellent Houston team.

No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 11 Syracuse Orange

Upset chance: 36.1 percent

Jamie Dixon had the best offense in the league during Big 12 play, but even the Horned Frogs will face a daunting task in the form of the Syracuse defense, assuming the Orange make it that far. Playing against a zone isn't necessarily an insurmountable challenge, but Paschal Chukwu and Marek Dolezaj give this particular zone some really good size.

No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 UCLA Bruins

Upset chance: 35.8 percent

It's like the Chip Kelly sweepstakes all over again! And just like Kelly's football teams, these Bruins are all offense. Their shooting is what gives them a decent chance to beat the much-more-battle-tested Gators.

No. 5 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. No. 12 Murray State Racers

Upset chance: 32.2 percent

You know Bob Huggins is going to bring the heat, and that could be a problem for Murray State, which dropped from a 93rd percentile offense overall (without opponent adjustments) to a 65th percentile offense against the press, per Synergy Sports. But if they can beat the pressure, the Racers can knock down shots from downtown.

No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Upset chance: 32.0 percent

Of the four Giant Killing star players we profiled in February, St. Bonaventure's Jaylen Adams was the only one to get his team to the tournament. Here's the abridged version: His limitless range means he can start raining down 3-pointers at any point -- and Florida, which had the 241st-worst 3-point defense in Division I, ought to watch out.

No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Davidson Wildcats

Upset chance: 31.7 percent

Kentucky finds itself on this list because John Calipari's squad is more reputation than results at this point. Some will cling to the memory of 2014 and push Kentucky through without thinking, but our model says Davidson doesn't need a Steph Curry to bounce this blue blood in the opening round.

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 12 South Dakota State Jackrabbits

Upset chance: 25.2 percent

This is certainly one of the best star vs. star matchups of the first round: Keita Bates-Diop vs. Mike Daum. They're both high-efficiency featured scorers with good size who also take care of the dirty work on the defensive glass for their teams. This is the Jackrabbits' third consecutive trip to the tournament, but this team is arguably the best of the three.

No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Charleston Cougars

Upset chance: 13.8 percent

Auburn loves a fast pace, but the Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in D-I. So this game will happen at Earl Grant's preferred speed, and, more importantly, Charleston has prolific scorers of its own in Grant Riller and Joe Chealey. If Bruce Pearl's Tigers are going to have a chance to do their run-and-shoot-3s thing in this tournament, they'll have to take care of the Cougars first.

Seems like this guy didn't pay any attention to how Kentucky was playing at the end of the season based on his writeup. They had plenty of growing pains along the way but are clicking right now. Sure they could maybe lose to Davidson but to say they are just reputation is silly. They just won the conference championship in an eight tourney team league.

 

[DJ Fieri]

IT HAS BEGUN!!!!!!!

 

[podsox]

These 2 teams f'n blow

 

[DJ Fieri]

Radford is going to advance....

 

[DJ Fieri]

Hope my Bruins win....

 

[DJ Fieri]

Going to be some really good guard play in this next game....

 

[DJ Fieri]

You going to be watching, @Vitamike?

 

[DJ Fieri]

I wonder if Mobley is related to Cuttino Mobley?

 

[OregonDucks]

I oppose the first four games. But at least they renamed it to the First Four rather than making things confusing calling it Round 1.

 

[DJ Fieri]

The Bruins out to a quick 5-0 lead....

 

[DJ Fieri]

Shit.....Stockard is playing.