Looks like Cutler will be staying..

[cubzzzfanincali]

ok, maybe this is semantics, but I don't consider #11 "great."

 

[blh7068]

OK, I don't know this, I'm just putting forward an impression...but my sense is that the Bears rushing numbers were so low was because they fell behind early so often. If I remember correctly, earlier in the season there were a couple of games where the run/pass balance was off too much too early, I seem to recall that they adjusted for this around the bye week. And they started games off with appropriate run/pass balances, before falling behind and having to switch to passing.

I see where youd conclude that, because its normal to abandon the run at some point when trailing. Again, IMO its the difference in Fortes number of carries and the team totals- Forte at 266...with Carey the next highest back with 36. No FB on the roster is also limiting. Its too much of the same thing from one player. When that record gets played over and over, predictability results. Not only do defenses know whats coming when running the ball, the lack of productivity that falls out of those rush attempts puts them in a more predictable position on later downs.

This will surprise you- pass attempts by quarter- 130, 172, 140, 164
rush attempts by quarter- 85, 83, 81, 105

run/pass ratio 40/60, 33/67, 37/63, 39/41

On a winning team, seeing high 4th quarter rushing attempts wouldnt surprise....but not on a 5 win team.
Keep in mind 65% of Cutlers pass attempts were made when trailing.

 

[blh7068]

[QUOTE="noonthirtyjoe, post: 6399168, member: 5333"]If your turning the ball over then your putting more on a bad def correct? And YES less turnovers = more wins, that is true for all teams. I'm not saying the def was good they were really bad, and so was Cutler. We lead the league in turnovers last year, if we lead the league in takeaways do you not see more wins from that? I do. Does not change the fact were a bad team but more wins for sure.[/QUOTE]

Not necessarily. Turnovers can negate an a scoring opportunity, they also can put a defense in a difficult position to defend. Thats why theyre bad. However, not every turnover is a worse case scenario. Most importantly, they dont dictate defensive play. The normalized stats are based off all defensive drives. TO's dont create extra possessions, either. IOW- subtracting out x number of turnovers doesnt to x fewer defensive drives, or x more offensive drives. Quick scoring, and punts that result from short drives/3 n outs can accomplish the same thing as a turnover. A long pass intercepted on 3rd down is generally as good as a punt.

Andrew Luck had 2 fewer total turnovers than Cutler last season. I get he makes more plays than Cutler, but he had a much better defense playing behind him- a defense that could absorb at least some of his mistakes. Cutlers TOs dont drive the defensive rankings I posted. Thats simply a bad defense that cant stop anyone, and one that stands little chance of absorbing any of his mistakes.

 

[anotheridiot]

So get a better defense and its just fine for Cutler to make mistakes, turn the ball over, giving up points and walk to the sideline with the same piss poor attitude that his shit does not stink and the receiver ran the wrong route.

I really dont know where most of your life lessons were learned, but nobody wants to be around a guy like that, even less want to go that extra mile to bail that guy out of trouble.

That is the bottom line.

 

[blh7068]

So get a better defense and its just fine for Cutler to make mistakes, turn the ball over, giving up points and walk to the sideline with the same piss poor attitude that his shit does not stink and the receiver ran the wrong route.

I really dont know where most of your life lessons were learned, but nobody wants to be around a guy like that, even less want to go that extra mile to bail that guy out of trouble.

That is the bottom line.

Sigh...That interpretation is about as incorrect as can be. Is it plain ignorance, or do you just intentionally create these strawmans? Life lessons??? A better question is where you acquired your comprehension skills, or lack thereof.

His attitude, as perceived by you is 100% speculative.

Your reply is nothing more than strawman and speculative responses. If thats all you can do, then please dont respond.

 

[anotheridiot]

What proof do you have that my perception of his attitude is 100% wrong? Are you in the locker room? Its all speculation. Look how many coaches have tried to fix this guy, it does not work because the entire team cannot get behind this guy.

Just because you go and dig stats that contribute to your argument does not mean that you are right all the time.

Lets start with a simple one, why did Brandon Marshall become expendable, a clubhouse cancer, the day he chose to not take the blame for Jay anymore?

 

[leomaz]

ok, maybe this is semantics, but I don't consider #11 "great."

Except they were closr to being top 10 than the 2014 Bears will ever be. They were mere hundred yard from being 8th. In the scope of last season ans only last season they were a great defense that won games for their qb who was turnover happy as well.

 

[leomaz]

In fairness..."middle of the pack" is a bit better than "historically bad".

If #11 is middle of the pack.......I'll take it over whatever the Bears defense was.

 

[blh7068]

What proof do you have that my perception of his attitude is 100% wrong? Are you in the locker room? Its all speculation. Look how many coaches have tried to fix this guy, it does not work because the entire team cannot get behind this guy.

Just because you go and dig stats that contribute to your argument does not mean that you are right all the time.

Lets start with a simple one, why did Brandon Marshall become expendable, a clubhouse cancer, the day he chose to not take the blame for Jay anymore?

Youre the one that is claiming that his attitude and how he is received is a problem. You make a claim, then its on you to back it up- not me. Until you do that is indeed speculative, and is certainly isnt anything I have to prove since it speaks for itself. What does "look how many coaches have tried to fix this guy" mean anyway?

I never said digging up stats makes me correct all the time. You saying that doesnt make your repetitive nonsense appear any more intelligent- so stop with the deflections. I know how to interpret stats and use them to qualify my talking points. I dont care if you disagree, but if youre going to reply, please opine to what I actually said.

After posting hard proof that getting a better defense is a higher priority than Cutler, you conclude my reasoning for that is a better defense condones his mistakes. Lets just say thats less than intuitive.

As for Marshall, I dont think any of that is a significant contributor towards his departure. AJ is a FA after this season, and if they want to keep him, he will cost considerably more than he does right now. The Marshall trade provides a lot more flexibility for signing AJ to a 2nd contract.

 

[anotheridiot]

Youre the one that is claiming that his attitude and how he is received is a problem. You make a claim, then its on you to back it up- not me. Until you do that is indeed speculative, and is certainly isnt anything I have to prove since it speaks for itself. What does "look how many coaches have tried to fix this guy" mean anyway?

What else can that mean? Look at the coaches that were brought in to fix Cutler in chicago. You are the stat guy, Martz, (look at what he did with Warner) Trestman, (the quarterback whisperer who revived careers of lost causes) Kromer (his history with Drew Brees) Look at the people that were brought in to get everything they could out of this guy. Now its the Adam Gase that supposedly made Payaton Manning the great quarterback he is. Before Fox fell into their laps, it was Kyle Shanahan that would be hired here.

Are they not trying to give this guy every best coordinator for great quarterbacks over the past decade?

Why has none of them ever gotten thru to this guy? Doesnt that speak for his football IQ and attitude?

Is that really that far of a reach?

 

[blh7068]

What else can that mean? Look at the coaches that were brought in to fix Cutler in chicago. You are the stat guy, Martz, (look at what he did with Warner) Trestman, (the quarterback whisperer who revived careers of lost causes) Kromer (his history with Drew Brees) Look at the people that were brought in to get everything they could out of this guy. Now its the Adam Gase that supposedly made Payaton Manning the great quarterback he is. Before Fox fell into their laps, it was Kyle Shanahan that would be hired here.

Are they not trying to give this guy every best coordinator for great quarterbacks over the past decade?

Why has none of them ever gotten thru to this guy? Doesnt that speak for his football IQ and attitude?

Is that really that far of a reach?

WHAT does 'fix' mean?? Turn him into Aaron Rodgers? Cut down on his mistakes? Make him less of the 'problem child' as purported by you? The amount of attention coaches paid to Cutler STILL doesnt fix other areas of the team that are clearly in need, like the defense is right now.

Hes not a Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady. Did it ever occur to you that maybe there is nothing to fix, i.e...he is what he is. Try accepting that while at the same time hope they improve other areas of the team that are a higher lliability.

Your assumptions that no one has gotten through to him is based on strictly perceptions and speculation. As an aside, have you actually taken the time to read what teammates have said about his football IQ? Its off the charts, according to some. I read an article not too long ago stating that in offensive unit meetings Cutler is by far the smartest in the room.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

blh (After posting hard proof that getting a better defense is a higher priority than Cutler) I kinda disagree with this as I find both equally important. In fact I see where better coaching on Def would improve us even with the same personal and there is no cure for Cutler. The highest priority is always good QB play. Look at GB there Def (not stat wise) is every bit as bad as ours but their QB play all but hide that.

 

[anotheridiot]

WHAT does 'fix' mean?? Turn him into Aaron Rodgers? Cut down on his mistakes? Make him less of the 'problem child' as purported by you? The amount of attention coaches paid to Cutler STILL doesnt fix other areas of the team that are clearly in need, like the defense is right now.

Hes not a Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady. Did it ever occur to you that maybe there is nothing to fix, i.e...he is what he is. Try accepting that while at the same time hope they improve other areas of the team that are a higher lliability.

Your assumptions that no one has gotten through to him is based on strictly perceptions and speculation. As an aside, have you actually taken the time to read what teammates have said about his football IQ? Its off the charts, according to some. I read an article not too long ago stating that in offensive unit meetings Cutler is by far the smartest in the room.

Perception and speculation. Exactly how may pro bowls has he seen since Denver? Thats a place where its all you, how many playoff wins, how many conference championships? He is not Brees, Rodgers, Manning or Brady, you got that right, why is he paid like them?

I guess you can ask the chicago bears organization what Fix means, you surely have a clue since you use the same term to "fix" the other areas. It is a common term on sports radio, clearly didnt change offensive coordinators because they just felt like it, each time the report was get more out of Jay. Get more out of a player is defined as fixing. Making him utilize his footwork is fixing a flaw. Getting him to stop throwing into triple coverage is an attempt to fix a flaw. Why did we have a terrible return game last year? Did Cutler not wanting Hester here have something to do with that?

Is this your excuse, I mean my argument for nobody getting thru to him? 2010, chicago bears ranked #4 defense. Playoffs!!!!!! Where was the Cutler led team offense? 21st. Great defense, still indifferent offense. 2011 still top half defense, 14th, offense still bottom half at 17, 8-8, no playoffs. 2012 bottom third defense at 22nd, 19th offense 7-9 no playoffs. 2013 #2 OFFENSE IN THE NFL, TRESTMAN!!!!!!! Terrible D, no playoffs. Last year, same terrible defense, got more tools for Cutler, what happened? Dropped back to the 23rd ranked offense.

We had the #2 ranked offense in 2013 because of Jay, lost because of the D, even though offensive numbers in the same system with even more weapons dropped significantly? What happened? Same coach, same offense, better players? What else is there to do than to speculate?

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

the jettisoning of Marshall and the wave of defensive free agent signings has changed the Bears' investment to be more balanced on both sides of the ball. We are now down to 8th highest cap hit on offense and the 12th highest hit on defense. The position group we are now highest in is at defensive end, 3rd highest in the league! (This is counting our previous DEs who are now 3-4 rush linebackers as DE $$, which is how sportrac does it).
Obviously, free agent spending aside, the teams most vital assets are always the top picks. We will soon find out just how badly Pace wants to fix the defense. Some of this I think is sort of the realization that there's really not much we can do about the offensive side of the ball anyway as long as we are stuck with this quarterback. So even though I think Cutler is the primary long-term obstacle to potentially winning a Super Bowl, I agree, go ahead and pile the $$ and some good picks on the defense.

As long, of course, as the #7 is used on BPA on either side of the ball.

 

[beardown07]

What else can that mean? Look at the coaches that were brought in to fix Cutler in chicago. You are the stat guy, Martz, (look at what he did with Warner) Trestman, (the quarterback whisperer who revived careers of lost causes) Kromer (his history with Drew Brees) Look at the people that were brought in to get everything they could out of this guy. Now its the Adam Gase that supposedly made Payaton Manning the great quarterback he is. Before Fox fell into their laps, it was Kyle Shanahan that would be hired here.

Are they not trying to give this guy every best coordinator for great quarterbacks over the past decade?

Why has none of them ever gotten thru to this guy? Doesnt that speak for his football IQ and attitude?

Is that really that far of a reach?

What Martz did with Warner and the Rams 15 years ago is irrelevant. The system is dated and the talent-level was much different.

If Trest was so great, he wouldn't have been out of the league for so long.

Kromer, looking back now, obviously didn't have as much to do with Brees' success, as Brees did with his.


Cutler needs work and probably will never be elite, but we are stuck with him and I don't see any way around that?

 

[blh7068]

blh (After posting hard proof that getting a better defense is a higher priority than Cutler) I kinda disagree with this as I find both equally important. In fact I see where better coaching on Def would improve us even with the same personal and there is no cure for Cutler. The highest priority is always good QB play. Look at GB there Def (not stat wise) is every bit as bad as ours but their QB play all but hide that.

They are both important. However, what would you say is a higher priority- a defense thats been near, or at the bottom of the barrel the last two seasons, or an offense that was stellar in 2013, and at best middle of the road in 2014.

Not quite, nooner. GB's defense isnt nearly as bad. Last year- at 21.8 PA, what theyre allowing falls in the range where most scoring takes place. At a 27.6 PA, the Bears fall outside of that range- and on the wrong side. That makes them a negative outlier on that side of the ball. IOW, teams dont have to be the best on either side of the ball to have a chance at winning, but one side cant be among, or the worst in the league. There isnt enough the rest of the team can do to overcome that once one side gets to that point.

 

[anotheridiot]

What Martz did with Warner and the Rams 15 years ago is irrelevant. The system is dated and the talent-level was much different.

If Trest was so great, he wouldn't have been out of the league for so long.

Kromer, looking back now, obviously didn't have as much to do with Brees' success, as Brees did with his.


Cutler needs work and probably will never be elite, but we are stuck with him and I don't see any way around that?

Trestman was great enough to get us the #2 offense in football in 2013. The examples of coaches hired were simply showing that the organization kept trying to find someone to "fix" Jay. I think Emery found the right guy in Trestman to be the offensive coordinator, his mistake was making him head coach. They clearly found coordinators that had success with other quarterbacks.

 

[blh7068]

Perception and speculation. Exactly how may pro bowls has he seen since Denver? Thats a place where its all you, how many playoff wins, how many conference championships? He is not Brees, Rodgers, Manning or Brady, you got that right, why is he paid like them?

I guess you can ask the chicago bears organization what Fix means, you surely have a clue since you use the same term to "fix" the other areas. It is a common term on sports radio, clearly didnt change offensive coordinators because they just felt like it, each time the report was get more out of Jay. Get more out of a player is defined as fixing. Making him utilize his footwork is fixing a flaw. Getting him to stop throwing into triple coverage is an attempt to fix a flaw. Why did we have a terrible return game last year? Did Cutler not wanting Hester here have something to do with that?

Is this your excuse, I mean my argument for nobody getting thru to him? 2010, chicago bears ranked #4 defense. Playoffs!!!!!! Where was the Cutler led team offense? 21st. Great defense, still indifferent offense. 2011 still top half defense, 14th, offense still bottom half at 17, 8-8, no playoffs. 2012 bottom third defense at 22nd, 19th offense 7-9 no playoffs. 2013 #2 OFFENSE IN THE NFL, TRESTMAN!!!!!!! Terrible D, no playoffs. Last year, same terrible defense, got more tools for Cutler, what happened? Dropped back to the 23rd ranked offense.

We had the #2 ranked offense in 2013 because of Jay, lost because of the D, even though offensive numbers in the same system with even more weapons dropped significantly? What happened? Same coach, same offense, better players? What else is there to do than to speculate?

Hes not an elite QB, so using pro bowls and playoff wins as your barometer for how good he is "supposed to be" is waste of time. Once more, youre making a talking point out of something that isnt my argument- at all.

The lack of success you want to hold him 100% accountable is a combination of his talent ceiling, along with what surrounds him offensive and defensively. He doesnt make enough plays on his own to carry an offense like an elite QB does. The next best thing to do is surround him with better talent- and for the most part that has happened over the last few seasons. But no QB is going to make the required amount of difference with a defense thats allowed better than 4 td's per game over the last two seasons. So, yes, that is a priority for a fix. What does that mean? It means start by getting front 7 players that can rush the passer, and plug gaps for better run stopping. Does that sound like a good place to start for improving whats been a bottom ranking defense the last 2 seasons???

As for why he gets paid like an elite QB, well contract terms arent always based strictly on performance. In Cutlers case, I dont believe for a second that his lucrative deal was offered in the vein of performance merit.

Based on FA availability and draft prospects, management deemed he was the best option going forward. He was set to become a FA. Unless you dont believe that he wouldnt have drawn interest from other teams- you may as well stop reading. IMO- they threw that kind of money at him so a potential bidding war could be avoided. Had it come to that, its possible that the contract numbers might not have been significantly lower than what he was paid anyway. Also, thats also assuming he would have stayed with the Bears. The big money he was given avoided all of that, and it was done very quickly.

We know Cutler had a season with a number of turnovers that exceeded his career averages. Of course that needs to be mitigated....but his mistakes dont account entirely for the offensive slip of 2014.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

I agree with what you are writing completely blh. I understood...and understand....the reasoning behind why the Bears extended Cutler for the kind of money they paid him. I defended the deal at that time because of it. And while I have changed my mind and become about as strong a critic of Cutler as there is imaginable, I also agree that in no universe is he 100% to blame for the offense's slide.

But we aren't winning a Super Bowl with him. I mean, sure, one never knows anything in football, there are no definites, I may be wrong, but as far as I am concerned, the Bears can field a great defense, make the playoffs, and he will lose us (by which I don't mean he will bear 100% of the blame, just the largest fraction of it) one of the three or four playoff games it takes to win it all. If all the chips land right, it will not be good enough and he won't consistently avoid crucial mistakes against great defenses in pressure situations. Sorry...just don't see it. He won't just "not win", he will actually harm us somewhere in a playoff run. That's his real Achilles' heel.

So as I see it, every day of hoping for a somewhat better team with Cutler than without him actually is harmful to the franchise. Sure, last year the defense could have been better and we would have gone 8-8. Sure, the guys around him and Trestman could have played better as an offense and we would have gone 10-6 or 11-5. But this team would not have won the Super Bowl. Period. I would now say we'd be better off with some scratch QB or taking a chance on a draft pick than playing with a known, expensive, talented failure.

Pace chose not to. Basically he didn't have all that much choice, it was always somewhat of a longshot that he would be able to move this awful, franchise-crippling contract, but one way or another, he didn't cut him loose. That's fine, he can still build this team with the draft for the long haul and for the day when Jay is gone and we can find a winner back there.

 

[anotheridiot]

I never wrote 100%.

There was the option to franchise Cutler, give him one more year to prove 2013 was not a fluke. Would have paid about the same, probably less with the signing bonus totalling 22 million.

The contract mentality was simple, pay the guy elite and maybe he finally plays elite, but final word is three years and we can be done.