Lionstop speaks: Off-season prediction pt 1

[tpaulus_2]

I see what you're saying for sure that if we want one of the best backs in the draft, we may have to use our 1st pick on him. That may be true, but what if it isn't and we waste the pick?

We both love Coleman; I think he's going to be a stud. But recent history over the last ten years tells us otherwise. We don't see it, but neither did all the teams who drafted the long list of 1st round busts since AP and Lynch were the last pair of stud RBs to come out of the 1st round. Maybe Coleman or Gordon are the next AP/Lynch, but the odds definitely aren't in their favor.

What if we take Coleman and he has a great rookie season, only to be out of the league by 2017 with concussion issues, or an achilles injury?

What if we don't take a RB in the 1st and Coleman and Gordon both go before our next pick, but Gurley is still there because of that injury, but goes on to be the best back in the draft?

What if all three guys go before our 2nd round pick, but none live up to expectations and the best back in the draft is the 5th or 6th or 9th back drafted again?

These are all pretty common themes at the position over the last 5 to 10 drafts.

I'm not saying I'm necessarily saying that I'm opposed to drafting a back in the 1st, but I'm definitely saying that it's very likely not going to turn out well. We have the evidence of that.

Overall, I won't be upset if we roll the dice on Coleman, but I'd prefer to chance it on Gurley lasting till our pick in round 2...

 

[tpaulus_2]

^^^ you got to pick your poison, take them earlier than some might expect, lose out on them, or trade up from next rd, while losing other later or future picks

Which is a great argument for not targeting players and letting your board fall as it falls and drafting accordingly. Rely on your team of talent evaluators who spend months analyzing and ranking the talent and draft whomever they've determined to be the best remaining player available. Unless there's a guy who fills an immediate hole within a few spots and a few decimals on the grading chart, then it obviously makes more sense to grab him, but otherwise I'd stick with the analytics and not chase players to fill holes.

 

[tpaulus_2]

this is nothing more than speculation, when I read this article....... but.... you know how draft speculation begins... the hype


Todd Gurley potential first-round target for Patriots, Seahawks - NFL.com


and he's coming off an ACL repair...


So I'd think a now healthy Gordon or Coleman would come before Gurley, IMO

Interesting article, but it's just speculation from a couple analysts' mock drafts. I'm not buying it based on the resources each of those two teams have already spent developing a well-stocked backfield.

Impossible? No, certainly not, but I don't see the two Super Bowl teams using their top pick on a guy who is coming off an ACL in order to add to what is already one of the strongest units on each team...

 

[Old Lion]

I will throw out a wild prediction a little off from the current discussion.


I see Jeremy Ross getting cut and Andrew Peacock stepping up in his place this year. I would also like to see us grab Andre Holmes in FA. We would only need to carry 5 WRs if that happens.


As far as the RBs go we will most likely let Bush and Winn go. We will add one in the draft but not in the first round. Maybe if 1 of those 3 guys you are talking about fall into the second, but otherwise we are looking at that Johnson kid in the 3rd or 4th. He seems to fit our offense the best anyway. We would only need 4 RBs too including Collins.

 

[broncosmitty]

I like Holmes.

But IMO it'd be an awful career move to leave Oakland to be a third option here. He's better off to stay there. Carr is no slouch. Or go to KC.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I will throw out a wild prediction a little off from the current discussion.


I see Jeremy Ross getting cut and Andrew Peacock stepping up in his place this year. I would also like to see us grab Andre Holmes in FA. We would only need to carry 5 WRs if that happens.


As far as the RBs go we will most likely let Bush and Winn go. We will add one in the draft but not in the first round. Maybe if 1 of those 3 guys you are talking about fall into the second, but otherwise we are looking at that Johnson kid in the 3rd or 4th. He seems to fit our offense the best anyway. We would only need 4 RBs too including Collins.

Yes on Ross getting cut, Idk about Peacock, and big yes on Holmes.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Ross is a FA.. hard to cut a guy who isn't on the roster.. he won't be re-signed

 

[tpaulus_2]

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^


that's how I feel this a.m.

 

[uofmarmyguy]

same

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

on another note

Squaks are attempting to pony up the big $$$ to Lynch. 10 big ones for 2015 season

"Beast Mode" may be about to be paid a lot more.

The Seattle Seahawks have offered star running back and media darling Marshawn Lynch a "huge contract extension," writes NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.

The deal includes a 2015 salary of more than $10 million, Rapoport writes, a significant increase on the $5 million Lynch is slated to make next season on his current deal.

Report: Seahawks offer Lynch massive contract extension

 

[lionstop1]

I like all three of this year's top backs, but you're clearly higher on them then I am to say that they're way better than Hill, Lacy, and especially Le'Veon Bell. Bell had 2,215 total yards from scrimmage this season, which is the 22nd most productive season all-time. That's outstanding production and a benchmark any of the backs in this upcoming draft would be hard-pressed to match or break.

If any of the three we're discussing are simply just as productive as Lacy or Hill, then they'd be well worth our 1st round pick. Lacy has started his career with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons, a 4.4 yard average, and 24 total TDs. That's 1st round production. Hill would be an ideal fit in our offense. With the weapons we have in the passing game, a big hammer like him busting up the middle would give defenses fits. He averaged 5.1 YPC on his way to an 1,100 yard rookie season.

I'm not saying Coleman, Gurley, and/or Gordon won't do as good or better, I just think you might be under-selling these three young backs who, in my opinion, are emerging as some of the next wave of the top backs in the league. If we draft any back at #23 this year and he's as productive as these guys, then we did great on that one.

I do agree with your premise that the talent and production of recent second round backs may spur a team to take a guy earlier in hopes of getting a top back, though.

I'm not necessarily saying they are better at the moment but I do believe all three are better prospects coming out. Lacy was the only one of those three that even warranted any type of first round consideration and that's not the case with these guys.

I also believe if the Lions did get one of these guys and worked on the o-line, there is no reason at all why the RB wont be as productive as these others coming in.

 

[lionstop1]

Here's some food for thought:

Thirteen running backs cracked 1,000 yards this year in the NFL. Only one, Marshawn Lynch, was a 1st round pick.

Of the top twenty RBs this season, only three, Lynch, Mark Ingram, and Jonathan Stewart, were drafted in the 1st round.

See, I think almost any RB can crack 1,000 if they see the ball enough. Its only like 65 yards a game or something like that.

 

[lionstop1]

I see what you're saying for sure that if we want one of the best backs in the draft, we may have to use our 1st pick on him. That may be true, but what if it isn't and we waste the pick?

We both love Coleman; I think he's going to be a stud. But recent history over the last ten years tells us otherwise. We don't see it, but neither did all the teams who drafted the long list of 1st round busts since AP and Lynch were the last pair of stud RBs to come out of the 1st round. Maybe Coleman or Gordon are the next AP/Lynch, but the odds definitely aren't in their favor.

What if we take Coleman and he has a great rookie season, only to be out of the league by 2017 with concussion issues, or an achilles injury?

What if we don't take a RB in the 1st and Coleman and Gordon both go before our next pick, but Gurley is still there because of that injury, but goes on to be the best back in the draft?

What if all three guys go before our 2nd round pick, but none live up to expectations and the best back in the draft is the 5th or 6th or 9th back drafted again?

These are all pretty common themes at the position over the last 5 to 10 drafts.

I'm not saying I'm necessarily saying that I'm opposed to drafting a back in the 1st, but I'm definitely saying that it's very likely not going to turn out well. We have the evidence of that.

Overall, I won't be upset if we roll the dice on Coleman, but I'd prefer to chance it on Gurley lasting till our pick in round 2...

I'm not sure I can get behind the logic of some of these things. Wasting a pick can occur with any position they pick. Im okay with whatever they do but there's always a chance of a wasted pick.

Although I would love to have the next AP or Lynch, I just really want a good RB that can do some damage when his number is called and get in the endzone.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I'm not sure I can get behind the logic of some of these things. Wasting a pick can occur with any position they pick. Im okay with whatever they do but there's always a chance of a wasted pick.

Although I would love to have the next AP or Lynch, I just really want a good RB that can do some damage when his number is called and get in the endzone.

to which this team hasn't seen hide no hair of since.... ?

sincerely

Barry Sanders

"not that any of these prospects are/will be me" ^^^

 

[Old Lion]

Ross is a FA.. hard to cut a guy who isn't on the roster.. he won't be re-signed

Tomato / Potato. Same difference as far as the team is concerned. He should not be back.

 

[Old Lion]

to which this team hasn't seen hide no hair of since.... ?

sincerely

Barry Sanders

"not that any of these prospects are/will be me" ^^^

Just read something where Barry said he thought he could still get 75 yards per game behind a good O-Line.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Tomato / Potato. Same difference as far as the team is concerned. He should not be back.

Si, Si....

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Just read something where Barry said he thought he could still get 75 yards per game behind a good O-Line.

I read that article also... he probably could

and he never had the O-Line to run behind like Emmitt Smith did..

 

[Rollingthndr]

Am I the only poster on this board who thinks Gordon is considerably better than Coleman?