Lionstop speaks: Off-season prediction pt 1

[Gulf of Brazil]

Thats true Blue. The thing is, I think Coleman will end up being the best and if the Lions don't draft him and they see how supremely successful he is elsewhere, Mayhew will probably have to shoot himself. I could see Gordon going to the Chargers though.

BTW... I'm one who has been against drafting a RB prior to round 4 but this kid is extremely talented and worthy of the pick so long as Suh is retained. I was also against giving Suh a massive contract.... I've changed my mind on both avenue's.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

What would you offer??

I was also against giving Suh a massive contract.... I've changed my mind
on both avenue's.

How massive would you be willing to go?

Saw something on NFL.com the other day that was a video discussing Suh. Said that the Lions are going to let him test FA and come back to them once he finds out what the market for his services are. That would mean the tag is not in play if their information is correct.

IMO that means a deal would have to be done within the next week to keep him from testing the market. That only happens if its such that you figure he cant say no to and positioned that the offer goes away on Feb 7 and the best he gets from us afterwards is what the market says he is worth. If he tests the market I feel confident that he leaves us. Front office absolutely butchered the handling of him and his contract.

They have no forward vision and can only see whats right in front of them. $19.5m in dead money entering the final year of a players contract when you knew before you created that mess he'd be in the prime of his career and in huge demand in the free agent market is reprehensible. No excuse for either of those asshats to have a job in this league and if let go from the Lions neither would work in the NFL again.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Did he flat-out get caught from behind, or did a DB take a good angle and make it look, on the TV angle, like he got caught from behind?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB1qk6yBvdI

I'm talking about at the 1:50 mark. Dude gets flat out caught from behind, no funny camera angle there. Most of his runs are wide open untouched TD's against Indiana St. Sure he needs the vision to help make those holes.

I watched him and Melvin Gordon and Gordon looked much more the superior back to me. If Lions want to take Gordon at #23, I would understand but I think Coleman is a 2nd rounder. Matt Forte style (who turned out to be pretty good).

 

[tpaulus_2]

I don't see any reason to assume he's gone if he hits the open market. If he's willing to let us match other offers then there's a great chance he comes back, imo. He reportedly really liked playing for Caldwell, and playing in Austin's defense, so unless we can't match his best offer, I'd be pretty optimistic on our odds of retaining him...

 

[tpaulus_2]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB1qk6yBvdI

I'm talking about at the 1:50 mark. Dude gets flat out caught from behind, no funny camera angle there. Most of his runs are wide open untouched TD's against Indiana St. Sure he needs the vision to help make those holes.

I watched him and Melvin Gordon and Gordon looked much more the superior back to me. If Lions want to take Gordon at #23, I would understand but I think Coleman is a 2nd rounder. Matt Forte style (who turned out to be pretty good).

Give me Matt Forte style over Monte Ball style any day. Wisconsin produces prolific RBs that tend to fail to live up to their hype at the professional level. They always have one of the best run-blocking o-lines in the country, year in and year out...

 

[Rollingthndr]

Give me Matt Forte style over Monte Ball style any day. Wisconsin produces prolific RBs that tend to fail to live up to their hype at the professional level. They always have one of the best run-blocking o-lines in the country, year in and year out...

I think he's way better than Ball. When he was a freshman and Ball was getting all the hype. I remember Gordon getting some carries and thinking to myself "This guy looks way more impressive than the guy everyone is talking about". I admit he had nice holes to run through as well but he looks more shifty and powerful than Coleman. O-line or not, dude almost broke Barry's record.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

I don't see any reason to assume he's gone if he hits the open market. If he's willing to let us match other offers then there's a great chance he comes back

I didn't say that he was going to give us a chance to match. That's simply the approach the Lions are supposedly wanting to take here.

There isn't anything saying that he brings any offer back to us. If he doesn't want to play here or he sees his Total offer, which includes off the field opportunities in a larger market as better elsewhere, then bringing us the opportunity to match simply a contract offer is pointless.

I would say we need to pay a premium, maybe a big one. Not sure we can do that. In fact, I doubt we can since that could be a very large amount.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I was just reading between the lines was all... I know it wasn't said directly.


If he doesn't want to play here, then yes, he's not going to give us a chance to match. Given the reports that he likes playing in our defense and for his coaches, though, I'd imagine that he'd want to stay if the $$ is the same as elsewhere.


I don't think we'd have to pay any sort of premium over other teams to retain him, a competitive offer should do it, imo...

 

[RobBase]

I don't see any reason to assume he's gone if he hits the open market. If he's willing to let us match other offers then there's a great chance he comes back, imo. He reportedly really liked playing for Caldwell, and playing in Austin's defense, so unless we can't match his best offer, I'd be pretty optimistic on our odds of retaining him...

Feel the same. He'll give the Lions every opportunity to match his best offer. But you can't blame the guy. What if someone offers him 150 million? He can't possibly like Caldwell and Austin THAT much.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

What would you offer ? How massive would you be willing to go?

I'm not you, Dr. Evil-er, but my initial offer to Suh, prior to or even during FA, would be close to the following. You can waive your magical wand however it best fits.

7 year 122.5 M with 63.5 M in guaranteed $$$$
31.5 M guaranteed Base Salary.....20M Signing Bonus.....12M Roster Bonus

I would make sure all the guaranteed $$$ were out of the way by end of his 4th year in this contract

Year..............Base Salary.............Signing Bonus.............Roster Bonus
2015.............3.0M.......................5M..........................3M.................= 11.0M+ the 9.7 leftover=20.7
2016.............7.5M.......................5M..........................3M.................= 15.5M
2017.............9.5M.......................5M..........................3M.................= 17.5M
2018...........11.5M.......................5M..........................3M.................= 19.5M
2019...........17.0M..............non-guaranteed with 0.00 $ dead-money
2020...........20.0M..............non-guaranteed with 0.00 $ dead-money
2021...........21.0M..............non-guaranteed with 0.00 $ dead money
____________________________________________________________________________________

JJ Watts contract has roughly 51M in guarantees and 10M signing bonus/10M roster bonus. If Watt is on the roster come 3-5 days after new league year, this year, his 2015/2016 Base becomes fully guaranteed.

This alleged contract for Suh, blows Watt out of the water, IMHO and is more than doable....

ADD your tweaks to it however you deem necessary, Dr. Evil-er

JJ Watt Contract Details and Salary Cap Charges | Over The Cap
Gerald McCoy Contract Details and Salary Cap Charges | Over The Cap

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

not that the following has much value to it but DraftTek currently has the Lions taking RB Melvin Gordon. they also state the possibility of FSU C/OG Cameron Erving as a 1st rd and then later on 3rd round Ameer Abdullah...

before any of you go off the deep end, I merely look at other sites trying to gain some perspective as to what other fan-bases likes and dislike are. To me, this site is probably more way off on current picks than any other site out there, but the one thing I do like is the ability to go to their Big Board (left side), click on that to bring up their top 100-400 players, then to click on the BIO's of each player (many of those Bio's are not updated through the 2014 season). They also have the draft trade chart on the left side and team needs in a graph like chart for Offense and Defense (4-3 base or 3-4 base).

there's some good to the site if you go in open minded when reading assessments from each team and why they think a certain draftee best fits team x. kind of like the Melvin Gordon pick... it's the Bush problem... I swear some of the sports writer's and draft sites read forums like this one and others to get certain info...

Like I said, they have guys slotted to be drafted long before many of us in here would even think of it being a probability.... temperament control is warned

NFL Draft Mock 2015 | NFL Draft Mock Draft

 

[lionstop1]

Blue,

Given the situation and a certain level of opportunity, I think drafting a RB makes a lot of sense.

 

[broncosmitty]

Fuckin' A Right it does!

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Lionstop1


I agree with your post #52.... and I also stated that if they are drafting a RB, it better be Coleman in the 1st rd.


I'm not on the Gordon, Gurley, Abdullah train or any other RB this year outside of David Johnson in the 4th rd, should he last until then... Those are the only two RB's I'm in awe of... Coleman much more than Johnson

 

[tpaulus_2]

I really like Gordon in the 2nd if that were to somehow shake down. Gurley scares me too much coming off an ACL, especially with our luck on injured draftees.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

IMHO, Gordon nor Coleman make it past the 1st rd..

 

[lionstop1]

Neither will make it to the second. Teams towards the bottom of the first will get great value for Gordon or Coleman. Most of the playoff teams and a few that just missed it need RBs. San Diego needs one bad. Even Seattle or N.E would love to land one of those guys, I'm sure. The Lions probably couldn't even move down too far to get one of those guys.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

..............

 

[tpaulus_2]

Neither will make it to the second. Teams towards the bottom of the first will get great value for Gordon or Coleman. Most of the playoff teams and a few that just missed it need RBs. San Diego needs one bad. Even Seattle or N.E would love to land one of those guys, I'm sure. The Lions probably couldn't even move down too far to get one of those guys.

Both of those teams are loaded at RB. I can't see either giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder to add to what's already such a strength for each... Maybe a 2nd rounder since they both draft right at the end of the round...

 

[LPinSLC]

Seattle loves both guys behind Lynch. If they were going to make a play at a skill position it would likely be WR.