LaCanfora: Trestman's job security tenuous; lack of leadership

[cubzzzfanincali]

Here, you guys will like this. Just discussing this subject now with a buddy, he pointed this out about Cutler this year.

3 Bears wins, Cutler 7 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 fumble (against NYJ, no butt involved). 2.3 TD per game, mostly that 4 TD game in SF.
5 Bears losses, Cutler 10 TDs, 8 INTs, 3 fumbles. So 2 TDs per game, but 1.8 INTs and .6 fumbles.

So...I don't know....doesn't this sum up what is pretty obvious?

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

oh, and since I know everyone was wondering, just looked at team totals and ranks....

Bears offense cap hit 8th highest in league, $63.7 million. Highest is Atlanta, and Minnesota is somehow 4th! Greg Jennings dead money is a lot of that, Peterson is $14.4, and on IR Matt Cassel sits costing $5.75. Haha, could be worse!

Bears defense cap hit, Bears are 28th in the league, $45.38 million. Highest is Buffalo, Green Bay is third.

 

[DaSuperfan]

I don't know that anyone thinks the defense is playing well. Sure, they are playing poorly. But this is to be expected, because the Bears $$ is overwhelmingly on the offensive side of the ball.

Here are the Bears top salary cap hits:
Cutler $18.5
Marshall $9.375
Forte $7.9
Bushrod $7.3
Briggs $6.5
Bennett $6

Out of the top 6 guys, exactly one of them is a defender. I think the reason I (and others) are much more a annoyed with the offense is because that's where the team is supposed to be much stronger, if you follow the money.

I don't think it is exactly in debate that the Bears roster was a total shambles by 2011, with the defense still strong but with nothing left in the cupboard. The idea was quite clearly to have the offense carry the team while the defense retooled. That's what isn't happening.

I actually have more long term hope for the defense in spite of their current play than I did two years ago. There are several younger guys, and I think the criticism Houston was taking was very misplaced because he did a very solid job in run defense, and he is locked up very long term. If they can hit on another 2 or 3 solid good draft picks in next couple of years, the defense should have a pretty good nucleus.

Anyway, that's my take. Yes, I get it, the defense sucks. But that isn't where the Bears money is, so what do you expect?

That's exactly what my point was with the post I made earlier this week in this thread. Totally agree.

 

[anotheridiot]

I don't know that anyone thinks the defense is playing well. Sure, they are playing poorly. But this is to be expected, because the Bears $$ is overwhelmingly on the offensive side of the ball.

Here are the Bears top salary cap hits:
Cutler $18.5
Marshall $9.375
Forte $7.9
Bushrod $7.3
Briggs $6.5
Bennett $6

Out of the top 6 guys, exactly one of them is a defender. I think the reason I (and others) are much more a annoyed with the offense is because that's where the team is supposed to be much stronger, if you follow the money.

I don't think it is exactly in debate that the Bears roster was a total shambles by 2011, with the defense still strong but with nothing left in the cupboard. The idea was quite clearly to have the offense carry the team while the defense retooled. That's what isn't happening.

I actually have more long term hope for the defense in spite of their current play than I did two years ago. There are several younger guys, and I think the criticism Houston was taking was very misplaced because he did a very solid job in run defense, and he is locked up very long term. If they can hit on another 2 or 3 solid good draft picks in next couple of years, the defense should have a pretty good nucleus.

Anyway, that's my take. Yes, I get it, the defense sucks. But that isn't where the Bears money is, so what do you expect?

Biggest Defensive cap hit is a guy that is not even here, Peppers. 8.366,668. That is money we cannot be paying a player on this years roster.

Next biggest is 2 million to Michael Bush at 2 million. we are also accounting for Gabe Carimi to play elsewhere at 907k and even paying Podlesh 800k.

Thats the bigger problem here, the front office. Emery thinks he can just keep passing the bad contracts to the next season. He structured all the new contracts with the same ease of fucking us next year.

It really has nothing to do with paying free agents. Nobody builds a team thru free agency.

Who are our drafted starters? Alshon, Garza, Long, Mills, Forte

Not sure about Paea, Briggs, Bostic, Fuller, Conte.

 

[Wounded Bear]

Favre Career: 25.4/16.8

Versus Jay's career ratio 19.4/15? I mean, let's compare apples to apples here.

But if you look at Favre's seasons when the Packers went to the Super Bowl, Brett had a 3:1 ratio (39 TD's/13 INT's) in the 1996 season (Super Bowl XXXI) and Brett had a better than a 2:1 ratio (35:16) in the 1997 season (Super Bowl XXXII).

Also, please note the number of TD's Brett Favre threw in those Super Bowl seasons: 39 TD's and 35 TD's. When has Jay ever come close to those numbers?

The highest number of TD's Jay has ever thrown was in 2009 when he threw for 27 TD's. Unfortunately, that same season he threw for 26 INT's.

This is what I mean when I keep repeating myself about stats needing some kind of context.





* I highlight to emphasize my point, not to be obnoxious. That was my intention anyway.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

Sure. I think we are on the same page- I don't disagree.
I don't feel like doing the math right now- so taking your 19.4/15 ratio... and we could get him to 30/15. I think that's progress.
Of course- 30/15 and a 5-11 record...not good enough.
30/15 and a 11-5 record...we are talking about probowl noms.

 

[Wounded Bear]

WB... I get what you're saying- when we look @ salary and compare him to the Mannings/Brady's/Rodgers.. yeah 30/15 isn't as impressive. What I was trying to point out- poorly it seems. Is that I believe that people are down on Jay, because they are not winning games- And contend that if the record was say 5-3 and he had the exact same numbers (fumbles/ints included)...we wouldn't be having these discussions.

My hypothetical would be Jay's best career numbers for 3 straight years.

I agree. But the fact of the matter is our Defense sucks. And a good defense would have been able to rescue the poor play of a QB with turnover problems, but with a bad defense, these errors are magnified.

So, without a doubt, part of the problem is the defense. The problem I have with Jay is that he knows the defense sucks, yet he doesn't seem to take that into account and is not reflected in his play.

It's the times when the play breaks down, he becomes desperate and thinks he is Brett Favre. And although I do think he is a special athlete and although I do see some Brett Favre in him, he is no Brett Favre and his Favre-like "ad libs" often end in disaster.

But I do get your point. Numbers alone, he's not having a bad season. Unfortunately his mistakes this year with a poor defense seem to be very significant in the score of the game.

I'm betting that we would accept those #'s based on what we have seen from him prior to this season. I know the expectations were high for the TEAM. (and probably a bit over estimated by lots of us) That's all I was doing. (comparing Jay to Jay)

Yep. But with a poor defense a QB must become more conservative in his play. And I don't (and this may be another argument entirely) but I don't think Jay has properly taken into consideration the poor defense he has.

The way I look at the Cutler/Trestman marriage is just that- Has Trest made him better? I have to say yes. Just based on his career numbers.

Definitely.

Let me ask again...(I'm not trying to be a dick) Let's go back to 10 seconds before Jay signed his deal-
And imagine you have NO idea what 2014 season would turn into...If I told Bears Fans- IF Jay signs THIS deal:
I will guarantee that he will go 4300+ yards 30 TD and 15 Ints for the next 3 years.

Would you take that?
I contend that most Bears fans would. And not even think much of the $.

And I'm not trying to be a dick when I say, "I wouldn't." The contract Phil Emery gave Jay was elite QB money and 30:15 ratio is not the performance of an elite QB.

Is that NFL of today's elite numbers? No... Is it better then we have seen in Chicago for 300 years...yep.

Again, this is the "world's tallest midget" argument. I'm not going to pay a play "elite" money because he's the best we've ever had at that position....especially at QB because he have notoriously sucked historically at QB.

However, I will pay a player elite money if he is an elite player at his position in the context of his contemporaries.

We're competing against Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, etc. These QB's set the standard in play and the market value on today's QB......not Shane Matthews and Rex Grossman.

Is it good enough to win a SB...I would say yes...IF other factors are in place- like a defense that doesn't give up 51 points and can force more then 1 punt in two games.

Sure. If Trent Dilfer can win a Super Bowl, I would think Jay could. But even with a badass defense, he would still need to take care of the ball better in his own territory as well as when he gets into the red zone.

Jay definitely has the tools, does he have the discipline?

 

[richig07]

Carolina... I can give you. Though Buff was an OT game the Defense gave up 193 yards- bring that to 100 or even 120...Bears win.

GB- NO PUNTS!!!

Not a chance, sorry. There is very little doubt that the Bears win if Jay doesn't throw the HORRIBLE INT across his body. The defense held BUF to 20 points. No excuse for Cutler there.

And the D's performance vs GB was awful, but that was a back and forth high scoring game. Jay took the team out of the game.

 

[richig07]

Favre Career: 25.4/16.8

Favre basically played in a different era.

This league has changed so much offensively just in the last three seasons or so. The spike in passing yardage, TD's, etc… in 2011 was extremely noticeable.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Biggest Defensive cap hit is a guy that is not even here, Peppers. 8.366,668. That is money we cannot be paying a player on this years roster.

Next biggest is 2 million to Michael Bush at 2 million. we are also accounting for Gabe Carimi to play elsewhere at 907k and even paying Podlesh 800k.

Thats the bigger problem here, the front office. Emery thinks he can just keep passing the bad contracts to the next season. He structured all the new contracts with the same ease of fucking us next year.

It really has nothing to do with paying free agents. Nobody builds a team thru free agency.

Who are our drafted starters? Alshon, Garza, Long, Mills, Forte

Not sure about Paea, Briggs, Bostic, Fuller, Conte.

Of our dead money hits, the only one that totally worries me is Allen ($12.5). We get past next season with him, fine, we are in the clear, but the guy has to produce enough for at least one more season.

 

[anotheridiot]

Of our dead money hits, the only one that totally worries me is Allen ($12.5). We get past next season with him, fine, we are in the clear, but the guy has to produce enough for at least one more season.

Yes, but they have already moved 4 million of Jays 22 million to dead area. Next year could have been a 14 million dollar hit for cutler, now its more like 18. They have yet to move any of the money from these other deals, and you know Emery is gonna. There might not be one guy at 8.3 million, but there will probably be three or four that are not playing here that will have it at 16 plus again.