Kevin Kolb is the answer

[NinerSickness]

Stafford was drafted by one of the worst teams ever, if not THE worst. Now he's spoiled?

Without disecting it too much I'd say he probably has top 5 talent around him.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Stafford was drafted by one of the worst teams ever, if not THE worst. Now he's spoiled?

Without disecting it too much I'd say he probably has top 5 talent around him.

His team is averaging 2.8 rushes per carry and his OL sucks.

 

[NinerSickness]

His team is averaging 2.8 rushes per carry and his OL sucks.

Yes, but when his receiving targets are really really really good (including Jahvid Best).

 

[clyde_carbon]

His team is averaging 2.8 rushes per carry and his OL sucks.

Yes, but when his receiving targets are really really really good (including Jahvid Best).

Calvin Johnson is really good, but Stafford has a lot to do with him dropping two TDs per game. Other than that, Megatron is 19th in catches and 21st in yards overall, which is mediocre.

Since when is Nate Burleson "really, really good"? He's been pedestrian his entire career. He's getting recognition now because of Stafford and Mega. Furthermore, Pettigrew has been decent but far from spectacular, and he's also been injury prone. Titus Young is still a rookie and pretty much irrelevant.

Jahvid Best is an excellent open field runner, but he's been very disappointing as an inside runner.

Staff makes that team more than anyone else. Off the top of my head I'd take Brady's, Rodgers', Brees', Rivers', Schaub's, Vick's, Ryan's, and Sanchez's surrounding casts Staff's..

 

[sayheykid1]

Which team makes Smith look above average?

None?

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Clyde, its not the supporting casts that make or break QBs nearly as often as the system, coaching, gameplans, etc. And Matt Cassel is maybe the all-time best example. With the Patriots he was Pro Bowl level. Then he goes to the Chiefs and stinks. THEN the Chiefs bring the fantastic Charlie Weis in, and the offense excels and Cassel looks good again. Then Weis takes off and Cassel turns back into a pumpkin.....and watching closely from game-to-game (my bro is a Chiefs fan and I end up watching them way too much), you could actually see his performance dropping as Weis had diminishing influence on the gameplan, and he fell apart the exact week Weis left.

Cutler is another good one. He was actually an efficient QB for a few years on Denver under Shanahan. Now you watch him and he's just so reckless, he doesn't have a coach or system to manage his weaknesses....and in fact has Martz, who exacerbates them. Michael Vick turned into a dramatically more efficient QB with PHI, as everyone does. Who even knows how good Rivers would be under a different coach, but Norv Turner has an offense that gets guys open and allows QBs to flourish....as we saw with Smith in year 2.

 

[sayheykid1]

Clyde, its not the supporting casts that make or break QBs nearly as often as the system, coaching, gameplans, etc. And Matt Cassel is maybe the all-time best example. With the Patriots he was Pro Bowl level. Then he goes to the Chiefs and stinks. THEN the Chiefs bring the fantastic Charlie Weis in, and the offense excels and Cassel looks good again. Then Weis takes off and Cassel turns back into a pumpkin.....and watching closely from game-to-game (my bro is a Chiefs fan and I end up watching them way too much), you could actually see his performance dropping as Weis had diminishing influence on the gameplan, and he fell apart the exact week Weis left.

Cutler is another good one. He was actually an efficient QB for a few years on Denver under Shanahan. Now you watch him and he's just so reckless, he doesn't have a coach or system to manage his weaknesses....and in fact has Martz, who exacerbates them. Michael Vick turned into a dramatically more efficient QB with PHI, as everyone does. Who even knows how good Rivers would be under a different coach, but Norv Turner has an offense that gets guys open and allows QBs to flourish....as we saw with Smith in year 2.

In your opinion...How good can Alex Smith be on a good team with a good coach? Can he be above average, someone to build an offense around? I don't think so.

About Cassel and Cutler...
IMO, Matt Cassel was as good last year for the Chiefs as he was for the Patriots and Jay Cutler wasn't much worse last year than he ever was in Denver.

About Turner...
You consider Smith's 2800 yard 16 TD/16 INT season "flourishing"?

 

[clyde_carbon]

Clyde, its not the supporting casts that make or break QBs nearly as often as the system, coaching, gameplans, etc. And Matt Cassel is maybe the all-time best example. With the Patriots he was Pro Bowl level. Then he goes to the Chiefs and stinks. THEN the Chiefs bring the fantastic Charlie Weis in, and the offense excels and Cassel looks good again. Then Weis takes off and Cassel turns back into a pumpkin.....and watching closely from game-to-game (my bro is a Chiefs fan and I end up watching them way too much), you could actually see his performance dropping as Weis had diminishing influence on the gameplan, and he fell apart the exact week Weis left.

Cutler is another good one. He was actually an efficient QB for a few years on Denver under Shanahan. Now you watch him and he's just so reckless, he doesn't have a coach or system to manage his weaknesses....and in fact has Martz, who exacerbates them. Michael Vick turned into a dramatically more efficient QB with PHI, as everyone does. Who even knows how good Rivers would be under a different coach, but Norv Turner has an offense that gets guys open and allows QBs to flourish....as we saw with Smith in year 2.

There's no doubt that the scheme and coaching/supporting staffs influence a QB's development and performance, but I have a strong belief that QBs either have "it" or simply don't. No scheme can suddenly make a QB anticipate routes, go through 3 or 4 progressions within seconds, and make quick decisions in the pocket. Some (most, actually) QBs don't possess all of these aspects naturally, and I don't believe they can be learned just because a QB is in a different system working under different coaches. I think you went a little extreme saying that there are more situations of bad QBs looking good because of their teams. The only legitimate example of that I found was Cassel, but that doesn't mean your statement was correct.

I don't think Jay Cutler is a good example. Last year he had an 86.3 QB rating, right on par with his best season as a Bronco - when he had a 88.1 rating. Not to mention the fact that he took the Bears to the NFC championship game.

 

[ViperVisor]

About Turner...
You consider Smith's 2800 yard 16 TD/16 INT season "flourishing"?

Not quite but close. The average QB was 78.5 rating he was 74.8

In 2005 he was a 21yo with 23 starts in a spread option offense. When he played it was all-time bad.
Stafford at 21 with 1000 passes in a pro style offense and he had been the number 1 pro style recruit in high school.
He had a rating of 61.0 with Calvin Johnson to lean on. The NFL avg rating was 81.2

Try and find a lot of seasons before a guy is 23 where a QB had a better year than Smith's less than avg season. There has been like 5.

There are some bright spots in 2006. In 44 passes on 3/4th and 9+ a 99.8 rating and got 25% of the 1st downs. In 2005 he had a rating of 8.0 on those plays. Overall on 3rd down his rating was 20. 2006 83.2

Still a lot of bad mixed in but he then had 24 NFL starts and it time to take another step up or we would then have to hedge our bets at QB. The worst thing happened, injury so didn't want to commit either way at the QB position.
In the meantime the organization continued to fail in other ways so that pretty much no QB could help this team to 10 wins and that is sill where we are at today.

 

[sayheykid1]

Not quite but close. The average QB was 78.5 rating he was 74.8

In 2005 he was a 21yo with 23 starts in a spread option offense. When he played it was all-time bad.
Stafford at 21 with 1000 passes in a pro style offense and he had been the number 1 pro style recruit in high school.
He had a rating of 61.0 with Calvin Johnson to lean on. The NFL avg rating was 81.2

Try and find a lot of seasons before a guy is 23 where a QB had a better year than Smith's less than avg season. There has been like 5.

There are some bright spots in 2006. In 44 passes on 3/4th and 9+ a 99.8 rating and got 25% of the 1st downs. In 2005 he had a rating of 8.0 on those plays. Overall on 3rd down his rating was 20. 2006 83.2

Still a lot of bad mixed in but he then had 24 NFL starts and it time to take another step up or we would then have to hedge our bets at QB. The worst thing happened, injury so didn't want to commit either way at the QB position.
In the meantime the organization continued to fail in other ways so that pretty much no QB could help this team to 10 wins and that is sill where we are at today.

QB rating is not the end all be all stat. Total yards, TD and INTs all add context. 16 TDs is not good, 16 INT is not good, 2800 yards is not good...
How many 300 yard games did Alex have in 2006?

He wasn't very good in 2006 and he hasn't gotten much better since, that's my POV on this and it was time to move on years ago. The guy has had more poor starts with one team for as many years as Smith.

The rest of the supporting cast may not be able to win 10 games with any QB (I actually think this is wrong) but no Niner other than Smith will individually prevent the Niners from winning 10 games.

 

[Geraint]

How does Alex get good Total yards, TD and many 300 yard games with the kind of team he had. For that to happen he needs at least one good WR.

but no Niner other than Smith will individually prevent the Niners from winning 10 games.

What is the point of saying that. You seriously think the team could be in such a position or that if the offense were ever good enough to win 10 games Alex would be the only one causing them to lose.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

I don't think Jay Cutler is a good example. Last year he had an 86.3 QB rating, right on par with his best season as a Bronco - when he had a 88.1 rating. Not to mention the fact that he took the Bears to the NFC championship game.

You've also got to consider:

1. You're comparing his first three years to his 2nd three years....he should be improving, not regressing. When you factor in where he "should" have been given how good he was out of the gates, I'd say its a significant decline.

2. Everything is worse - completion %, INT rate - but its the sack rate that went up ridiculously. You can take two years with an 80s QB rating, but one has about 15 sacks, and the other 50.....not even comparable.

3. Championship game is basically totally irrelevant, its a team sport and clearly his performance wasn't the difference between his Broncos teams and his Bears teams....he didn't take anyone anywhere, he was just on a better team.

And if you want even more evidence of Shanahan's track record, take a look at Elway's career numbers.

 

[southbaysportsfan]

QB rating is not the end all be all stat. Total yards, TD and INTs all add context. 16 TDs is not good, 16 INT is not good, 2800 yards is not good...
How many 300 yard games did Alex have in 2006?

He wasn't very good in 2006 and he hasn't gotten much better since, that's my POV on this and it was time to move on years ago. The guy has had more poor starts with one team for as many years as Smith.

The rest of the supporting cast may not be able to win 10 games with any QB (I actually think this is wrong) but no Niner other than Smith will individually prevent the Niners from winning 10 games.

I would argue that Singletery and Nolan prevented the niners from winning 10 games.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Stafford could really use some tackles. Good god they were getting abused against the Vikes. Backus is probably worse than any of our tackles. He got two false start penalties in a row because he was scared of Allen. Then the very next play Allen embarrassed him for a sack. They keep rotating two scrubs at RT hoping one can step up. It is amazing that Stafford isn't injured again.

 

[MW49ers5]

Stafford could really use some tackles. Good god they were getting abused against the Vikes. Backus is probably worse than any of our tackles. He got two false start penalties in a row because he was scared of Allen. Then the very next play Allen embarrassed him for a sack. They keep rotating two scrubs at RT hoping one can step up. It is amazing that Stafford isn't injured again.

Saw the sequence of plays your mentioning, I almost felt bad for Backus. He was clearly shaken.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Yeah, that was about as hostile a situation as you get in the NFL.....inside the 5 under 2 minutes, Jared Allen had set up shop in Backus's head and disrupting every play, Vikes crowd going bonkers.

 

[Giantsmojo]

QB rating is not the end all be all stat. Total yards, TD and INTs all add context. 16 TDs is not good, 16 INT is not good, 2800 yards is not good...
How many 300 yard games did Alex have in 2006?

He wasn't very good in 2006 and he hasn't gotten much better since, that's my POV on this and it was time to move on years ago. The guy has had more poor starts with one team for as many years as Smith.

The rest of the supporting cast may not be able to win 10 games with any QB (I actually think this is wrong) but no Niner other than Smith will individually prevent the Niners from winning 10 games.

Those are counting stats, they mean nothing without factoring in attempts. If you project Alex Smith's Attempts to what Payton Manning had Smith's numbers project to have been 3638 Total Yards, 20 TD's, 20 INT.

In baseball do you also value RBI's and W's?

 

[MW49ers5]

Those are counting stats, they mean nothing without factoring in attempts. If you project Alex Smith's Attempts to what Payton Manning had Smith's numbers project to have been 3638 Total Yards, 20 TD's, 20 INT.

In baseball do you also value RBI's and W's?

Why would you extrapolate Smith to Manning? Both QB's played a complete season and to my knowledge, Manning is not part of this discussion. If he is, I missed it, sorry.

 

[Giantsmojo]

Why would you extrapolate Smith to Manning? Both QB's played a complete season and to my knowledge, Manning is not part of this discussion. If he is, I missed it, sorry.

Yes they both played a complete season, but Manning had more attempts and if you have more opportunities to get yards, TD's, INT's you are going to throw for more yards, TD's, INT's, that is why using counting stats are pretty much useless in assigning value to a player because there is no context to the data in a way that can be compared equally with other players, which QB Rating does puts those counting stats with some context.

 

[threelittleturds]

In your opinion...How good can Alex Smith be on a good team with a good coach? Can he be above average, someone to build an offense around? I don't think so.

About Cassel and Cutler...
IMO, Matt Cassel was as good last year for the Chiefs as he was for the Patriots and Jay Cutler wasn't much worse last year than he ever was in Denver.

About Turner...
You consider Smith's 2800 yard 16 TD/16 INT season "flourishing"?

You never take the time to read anything after someone mentions Alex Smith do you?? Just like on ESPN...

He made a pretty clear point about Cassel doing well only with Charlie Weis on the Chiefs and in the perfect situation of New England. Just look at Cassel's QB rating to see that.

• 2008 ~ 89.4 (With New England)
• 2009 ~ 69.9 (Without Weis)
• 2010 ~ 93.0 (With Weis)
• 2011 ~ 65.5 (Without Weis)

As to Turner.
Aikman credits him for his Hall of Fame career. Rivers is obviously benefiting from his coaching... and only a complete fucking moron would think that turning Alex Smith from a 1 TD 11 INT guy into a 16 TD and 16 INT guy is not noteworthy. The Chargers obviously took notice when they hired him to coach up their 1st round QB.

Good for you though, for resisting the urge to say "if that passes for flourishing in Niner Land... yeesh"