Julius Thomas to the Raiders?

[ATL96Steeler]

Essentially at that point when the Broncos offered him that deal (not sure it was quite the $8 million that some have talked about) his stock had never been higher. He was wracking up touchdowns left and right and screaming this is too F***ing easy at the cameras. He thought that he was going to continue at that rate and would be able to easily demand Gronk and Graham type money for the position. Well of course then once again his ankle gave out on him and I think people saw what the limitations are with him now. I agree with most other quarterbacks he is probably a 5-6 touchdown type guy. Maybe 10 depending if the team actually has a pretty good offense. I could see him actually going to the Falcons as that pairing with Matt Ryan just makes too much sense. He loves his AFC West pass catching TE's that played basketball. He is then going to a team that is geared towards the pass (sounds like Raiders want to work more with the run game compared to that of the Falcons) and has a quarterback that can take advantage of his skill set.

ATL does make sense because of the QB and the WRs around him...he could be a 10 TD guy here.

ATL has a reported $30 mil in cap space and an owner that's willing to spend it...we're hearing big names like Suh, Houston, etc. but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop down a notch and go after JPP from NYG to pair with the #8 overall pick, and maybe a run stuffing LB in FA and keep some in reserve to get Ryan an upgrade @ TE, but they're so OFC cap heavy that I don't expect them to pay top shelf money to anyone on OFC with a DEF HC coming on board.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

What took you so long to come and give us the scoop cd.. Again dude, i will leave it up to JDR on the JT front.. But from i have seen from JT the dude is great Baller!! To fast for LBs, and to big for DBs..
And being a B-Ball player is a plus for TEs!! Speed, cutting, moves, and hands.. That guy would have 10 plus TDs with most QBs in football.. Cuz he has elite talent.. I am more high on JT than i am DT!!
DT to me seems more like a product of PM than JT.. That's why you never really hear me pimping DT as a FA WR i would want!! Im not sold on him.. Again i would take him just not sold on him..
No fan knows JT as good as JDR, if we make a play for him?? That means JDR is sold on him.. Im good with that.. Musgrave said we are going to install up tempo ball, Carr is to good not to be in a system like that, so im sure JT would have his share of TDs if we get him.. Knighton is going to be a Raider cd..
That's the guy i really want.. Elway better hurry up and sign him..

 

[cdumler7]

What took you so long to come and give us the scoop cd.. Again dude, i will leave it up to JDR on the JT front.. But from i have seen from JT the dude is great Baller!! To fast for LBs, and to big for DBs..
And being a B-Ball player is a plus for TEs!! Speed, cutting, moves, and hands.. That guy would have 10 plus TDs with most QBs in football.. Cuz he has elite talent.. I am more high on JT than i am DT!!
DT to me seems more like a product of PM than JT.. That's why you never really hear me pimping DT as a FA WR i would want!! Im not sold on him.. Again i would take him just not sold on him..
No fan knows JT as good as JDR, if we make a play for him?? That means JDR is sold on him.. Im good with that.. Musgrave said we are going to install up tempo ball, Carr is to good not to be in a system like that, so im sure JT would have his share of TDs if we get him.. Knighton is going to be a Raider cd..
That's the guy i really want.. Elway better hurry up and sign him..

Well it took me a while to respond in my wife is having a baby any day now so false labors, doctor appointments, setting up the baby room, and so many other things have been taking up my time. Didn't see this thread till this morning.

As for JT I guess you are entitled to your opinion. Again he wouldn't be a bad signing for you but there are some major negatives that come with him. That to me is the difference between him and DT is DT is pretty darn good at everything. He has great speed, good hands, good field vision, good route runner, can high ball in one on ones, and is a good blocker. Throw in football is his first passion. Don't underestimate that part of the equation. JT couldn't cut it as a basketball player so he fell back on football. Those type of guys I wonder how they will do when they get paid. Throw in like I said he already showed in Denver that if he is hurt he cannot play through the pain. He has had a couple of ankle surgeries already and then hurt it once again this past season to return and just be a shell of himself. He was not a difference maker and became more of a liability on the field. He lost that speed and athleticism that made him a nightmare match up. So when healthy yes he is a great player but he has spent more of his career on the sideline than on the field. Are you really ready to make him one of the highest paid players on your team with that kind of red flag?

Knighton we shall see. He has really turned the way he has been talking around from right when the season ended. He started off very much talking like he was going to be a Raider as he didn't think the Broncos had any interest in keeping him. Now that the off season has progressed some his interviews have completely changed to now him saying Broncos are the only team that he would give a discount to as he wants to stay with the Broncos knowing they are competing for Super Bowls.

 

[cdumler7]

ATL does make sense because of the QB and the WRs around him...he could be a 10 TD guy here.

ATL has a reported $30 mil in cap space and an owner that's willing to spend it...we're hearing big names like Suh, Houston, etc. but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop down a notch and go after JPP from NYG to pair with the #8 overall pick, and maybe a run stuffing LB in FA and keep some in reserve to get Ryan an upgrade @ TE, but they're so OFC cap heavy that I don't expect them to pay top shelf money to anyone on OFC with a DEF HC coming on board.

I can definitely see the Falcons now focusing quite a bit of that money on the defensive side of the ball. Heck they look like they are hiring Dan Quinn a defensive guy so it makes sense that he will want to build a championship caliber defense more so than an offense. Right now I do think JT will be a Raider. He has pretty much said that is where he wants to go and probably knows that with them having so much cap space that he can get the best contract possible there. He has already said money is first priority when it comes to where he goes. Not very often you hear a player say that.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

Congrats on the new KID cd!! That's always good news!!
And cd, you playing JT down a little to much dude.. Sure every player has problems, shoot look at Hayden.. When JT is on his game, he is top 5 easy.. Now i don't know if we get him or not??
But i do welcome him if we do.. Some Denver beat writer put a tweet out, saying Knighton and JT were going to be a package deal to Oakland for sure.. He said they both will walk from Denver.. Not sure how much stock you want to put in that, just saying.. Both are great players..

 

[cdumler7]

Congrats on the new KID cd!! That's always good news!!
And cd, you playing JT down a little to much dude.. Sure every player has problems, shoot look at Hayden.. When JT is on his game, he is top 5 easy.. Now i don't know if we get him or not??
But i do welcome him if we do.. Some Denver beat writer put a tweet out, saying Knighton and JT were going to be a package deal to Oakland for sure.. He said they both will walk from Denver.. Not sure how much stock you want to put in that, just saying.. Both are great players..

Thanks Idaho. Ready for the little guy to get here.

Now Idaho you said you don't know a lot about JT. A couple of Bronco fans give you a more inside look at just because it isn't as pretty of a picture as you would like doesn't mean it isn't true. JT when healthy is one of the 5 best receiving TE's in the NFL. I have no problem saying that. There are 3 main issues with him though as I have pointed out...1) love of the game 2) Not just horrible at blocking but refuses to even do it (can't coach those who don't want to be coached) and 3) in 4 seasons in the NFL he has yet to play a full season and of those 4 years he has actually missed two entire seasons worth of games (32 games). So while you could be getting a top-5 TE receiving threat you could also be getting the guy who makes your run game terrible, spends a good part of the season on the sideline, and could just take the money and run. So you have to look at the good and the bad with him. The Broncos were making that $8 million or whatever offer to him when he was scoring 1-2 touchdowns a game. Should be pretty obvious now what they think of him when they won't even make him an offer anymore. Coaches made comments about him at the end of the season about how he wasn't willing to play through the pain like the other players and even the other players were making some of the same comments about him. He was viewed as weak by the team. Again that is not to say he doesn't have value. The issue will be how much is a team willing to pay for him. Anything over $5 million in my opinion is way too much and is taking a huge risk that he will be a ton of dead money eventually.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

cd, everybody has good and bad.. And if we just FOCUS on the bad, we will miss all the good.. Word..

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

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[cdumler7]

cd, everybody has good and bad.. And if we just FOCUS on the bad, we will miss all the good.. Word..

You are right. Like I said there is a lot to like about Julius Thomas. I would just say there are players that have a lot less bad but don't offer up as much good. Thomas has the ceiling of being one of the 3 biggest TE's in the entire NFL for the next 5 years. His floor though is to have his ankle so torn up that he can't play another down. Now while any player could suffer a career ending injury usually players who have shown a history of injuries time and again have a higher chance of missing games. Throw in JT just hasn't shown quite the desire and fight that you want but again there is so much good that is hard to look past all that. So risk/reward is all over the place with him. If you guys sign him I wouldn't blame you one bit for being excited about that decision. If you guys sign him though to a big contract I think just about every Bronco fan will be jumping off the walls with excitement though knowing all the red flags that come with him. Who ends up being right about the situation would be hard to tell. Heck the Broncos could still resign him and I would be excited about that situation (unless it is for a ridiculous contract). Like I said his ceiling is hard to ignore.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

That's a fair post cd.. The truth is, his good trumps his bad imo.. Alot of teams are going to make some bids on him.. Heck the Skins just might out bid everybody.. Unless Elway put's the franchise on him??
Again, i would take him in a heartbeat!! Just like 31 other teams.. Rivera and JT would be killer man..
TDs all day long.. And that's what WINS games..

 

[cdumler7]

That's a fair post cd.. The truth is, his good trumps his bad imo.. Alot of teams are going to make some bids on him.. Heck the Skins just might out bid everybody.. Unless Elway put's the franchise on him??
Again, i would take him in a heartbeat!! Just like 31 other teams.. Rivera and JT would be killer man..
TDs all day long.. And that's what WINS games..

I agree some teams will want him. I think it should be telling though at least right now that the team that has had the most time with him isn't even going to give him an offer when at the beginning of the year they were ready to make him one of the top-5 paid TE's. I think the Broncos learned some things about him that they realized he was too big of a risk to put that kind of money towards. So to me his bad at this point outweighs his good. Again if the Broncos were to resign him I would be cheering like crazy but every hit he would take I would wonder when he is going to shut it down for the season. Seen it too much over the last two years. Maybe he learns how to have that NFL toughness over the next few years and he shows himself worthy of being paid that much but I guess time will tell.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

It seems like Denver fans really want to keep JT, but don't want to go all in on the hope's of keeping him..
TEs are a major part of the game now days.. And not cuz of the blocking either!! Its the mismatches you get in the pass game.. Look at Gronk.. To fast for LBs and to big for DBs = Very hard cover.. JT is in that same class.. Blocking TEs can be found anywhere.. World class receiving TEs are hard to find.. And will cost you bank..

 

[cdumler7]

It seems like Denver fans really want to keep JT, but don't want to go all in on the hope's of keeping him..
TEs are a major part of the game now days.. And not cuz of the blocking either!! Its the mismatches you get in the pass game.. Look at Gronk.. To fast for LBs and to big for DBs = Very hard cover.. JT is in that same class.. Blocking TEs can be found anywhere.. World class receiving TEs are hard to find.. And will cost you bank..

Few things here Idaho. I think most Bronco fans could be happy either way with JT. He honestly does not fit a Kubiak type system where blocking is a huge part of a TE's responsibility. They are the ones that on those zone stretch run plays are at the point of attack that a RB has to read off of to decide whether to cut it back inside or stretch it further on out. If the TE misses his block the whole play is destroyed. So again I don't think JT is a huge priority for the Broncos. Also blocking is very important. It is why Jimmy Graham cannot be on the field on every single play. Gronk is in a whole different class because he is actually a very good blocker as well as receiver so teams cannot cue off of him being on the field of whether it is a run or pass. Teams this past year knew if JT was in the game the Broncos were going to pass or run opposite side of where JT was lined up. So it actually limited our playbook a bit with him in the game.

Also world class receiving TE's are not that hard to find anymore. With so many of these basketball turned TE players coming into the league athleticism at the TE position is easy to find. It is why you still don't see the TE position jumping up the Draft because most teams seem to think they can find these athletic TE's that they can coach up throughout the draft now. The ones taken higher are the ones that actually are more refined and can be a 2-way player of helping in the pass and run game.

Right now I would say most Bronco fans this is the order of priority for resigning...
1) D. Thomas
2) Knighton
3) Franklin
4) Virgil Green (most people are actually higher on him as a TE player for the Broncos than that of JT because he can both block and receive and honestly is more athletic than JT but doesn't quite have the hands he does)
5) Rahim Moore
6) Will Montgomery
7) Nate Irving
8) Julius Thomas (he would be higher on the list if it wasn't for the cost that some team will pay for him)

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

I disagree cd.. World class TEs are hard to find, there are only few of them.. And just cuz some dude played B-Ball don't mean he can play TE.. Now JT can play TE dude.. TDs bro is what i want.. And lot's of them.. On that list you put up i would go.. Knighton, JT, DT.. Yup Yup..

 

[cdumler7]

Funny Idaho that you put the 2 guys that are linked to possibly go to Oakland as the top 2 FA's of the Broncos. Weird Coincidence. Now I agree that not every basketball player can play TE but it does seem like the league is filling up with them more and more. JT can play half of what a TE is called to do. I would say he is more of a hybrid WR/TE kind of player in he is pretty much limited to being a receiving threat. Again like I said (remember you are talking to a Bronco fan who has watched every snap this kid has taken in his career and you have said you don't know much about him) teams knew they could key off him being in the game. There were essentially two options the Broncos could do in they could pass or run opposite side of him. So that meant DL's could shift one way or the other depending on the side he was on and know they stood a good chance of containing the run game.

Now as for order I guess that is up for opinion. Again it should be telling that the Broncos don't even seem interested in making JT an offer. DT on the other hand they are willing to at least franchise tag to make sure they at least have him another year. They would rather pay the $12.7 million tag to DT as a WR than that of a $7.5 million tag for a TE. Again this is why JT is not very high on the Broncos priority in he just doesn't fit our system all that well since the system requires TE's who can both catch and block. This is why most Bronco fans actually have JT's back up in Virgil Green higher on priority because he is a TE that can do both.

Now JT from the sound of the offense you guys are going to does seem to fit that system better with the no huddle Philly system. So I could see why he would be worth more to you guys than he is to the Broncos.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I have to agree with Cdumler on his assessment of JT from an outside perspective watching him. I would invest the FA money the Raiders have on the defense before Julius with the lack of any kind of blocking and his ankles are still going to be an issue going forward, imo. Better option may be to target Suh or Knighton to name a couple of guys that would help the Raider D.


If you want a FA weapon for Carr, I think a decent idea would be to go after Cecil Shorts- hopefully not at the expense of my team. Cecil isn't a gamebreaker, but he should be a pretty solid contributor in the Oakland offense.


If I am the Raiders GM, I would use the FA money to beef up the defense (Knighton, Suh, etc) and hit the draft to grab weapons for Carr; draft the Notre Dame TE if you really want a 2nd TE later on.

 

[cdumler7]

I have to agree with Cdumler on his assessment of JT from an outside perspective watching him. I would invest the FA money the Raiders have on the defense before Julius with the lack of any kind of blocking and his ankles are still going to be an issue going forward, imo. Better option may be to target Suh or Knighton to name a couple of guys that would help the Raider D.


If you want a FA weapon for Carr, I think a decent idea would be to go after Cecil Shorts- hopefully not at the expense of my team. Cecil isn't a gamebreaker, but he should be a pretty solid contributor in the Oakland offense.


If I am the Raiders GM, I would use the FA money to beef up the defense (Knighton, Suh, etc) and hit the draft to grab weapons for Carr; draft the Notre Dame TE if you really want a 2nd TE later on.

So weird to be thinking of how to help the enemy but you are right I do think that would be better money spent. Cecil Shorts is a very underrated player that unfortunately injuries and well just terrible quarterback play have limited our chances of seeing what he can do on the field but he really is a very solid receiver.

If I were the Raiders I would honestly do a lot of what you said. I would actually be willing to break the bank and get both Knighton (play NT) and Suh (Play the 3-Tech). I would then also sign some middle tier guys like Cecil Shorts. I would then go into the draft looking at either adding Amari Cooper or Shane Ray (not a big Randy Gregory fan and I am a Husker fan). So this boosts one of the sides of the ball then the 2nd round there should be some great TE's available such as Maxx Williams (my personal favorite), Devin Funchess (pretty much a Julius Thomas clone), Nick O'Leary, Ben Koyack, and Clive Walford. They should have their pick of the best one at the top of the 2nd as only Maxx Williams seems like a guy who might creep into the 1st round.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

I agree on getting some D players.. Knighton or Suh would be a good start, but we only need one of them.. Remember we have ALL- Rookie DT Jelly Ellis.. It would be a waste of money getting both Knighton and Suh, with other needs.. What the Raiders need to do is load up on weapons on the O side of the ball.. We have a young QB that needs all the tools we can get him in order further his development..
A season will always come down to QB play, always.. Look at KC?? Great D, but other than Charles they have no weapons.. Look how the Colts did it.. Draft Luck, and load the weapons for Luck.. Now they will work on the D this offseason, and might win the SB next year.. Give me JT, Cobb and Draft Cooper, and i will show you a team that will score points.. The Raider D played good in alot of games, we just couldn't score points, cuz we had no weapons.. Who would have a bigger impact on a team with no O weapons??
A D player or an O player?? Say Cooper or Gregory??

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I agree on getting some D players.. Knighton or Suh would be a good start, but we only need one of them.. Remember we have ALL- Rookie DT Jelly Ellis.. It would be a waste of money getting both Knighton and Suh, with other needs.. What the Raiders need to do is load up on weapons on the O side of the ball.. We have a young QB that needs all the tools we can get him in order further his development..
A season will always come down to QB play, always.. Look at KC?? Great D, but other than Charles they have no weapons.. Look how the Colts did it.. Draft Luck, and load the weapons for Luck.. Now they will work on the D this offseason, and might win the SB next year.. Give me JT, Cobb and Draft Cooper, and i will show you a team that will score points.. The Raider D played good in alot of games, we just couldn't score points, cuz we had no weapons.. Who would have a bigger impact on a team with no O weapons??
A D player or an O player?? Say Cooper or Gregory??

The Raiders have a head start on KC's O-line and WR corp I think... this is well... depressing for me. We still somehow managed 12th in points per drive at 1.99 PPD.

 

[idahoraiderfan33]

I don't know about that Moose.. Let's just say we both need to up grade the WR spot.. Our OL was a mix bag all year long, great in pass protection but not so good in the RUN game.. But then again, when we put Murray in he sure could find the holes.. But one thing about me, im always game for more OL players..
Crappy OL = Nothing works..