Is Russel Wilson an ELITE QB?

[GNG]

Actually this thread is about this article here.

Monday Musings: Preseason shows Russell Wilson ready for higher level - CBSSports.com

Which is saying much the same as most of us Seahawks fans and that is that Russell Wilson looks ready to make the next step to being elite. Even the OP who may be a bit over enthusiast say that Wilson is top 10 ( which isn't elite in anyones book) and I might point out he's not a Seahawks fan by the way, he's a Packer fan who admires Russell Wilson.

I'm a Cowboys fan and I think Wilson is a top tier QB.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well the title is pretty black and white to me... and that guy is a Badgers fan.

Well a Badger fan, is a bit different then a Seahawk fan. Also despite the title, which was miss leading, all he claimed is that Wilson was a top 10 QB, that's not calling him elite right now, right?

Love those Badgers fans, they really love Wilson and with good reason.

 

[SonnyCID]

I'm a Cowboys fan and I think Wilson is a top tier QB.

Homer!

 

[flyerhawk]

1st point in bold....to be honest...I'd rather have an OFC like SEA if you have a likekind DEF...but take ATL for instance since I see them a lot...the after Michael Turner version of this team has been Matt Ryan and the passing game or bust...2 yrs ago they had it going well...LY the OL was probably the worst in football yet Ryan still put up good numbers just a weak DEF and running game...I'm not sure how RW would fare if put into an OFC like that.

So here is where some issues come up for some of us.

You say Matt Ryan put up good numbers last year. Here was his state line...

67.4% 4,515 yards 6.94 YPA 26 TD Int17 fumble 4 passer rating 89.6

So he threw a lot of picks and had a fairly pedestrian YPA yet people, not just you, think he put up good numbers because he threw the ball a lot. Personally I don't think those are good numbers. I think they are average numbers that yielded a lot of yards because they were down a lot because their defense was poor.

And this is where part of the problem lies. His numbers are somewhat worse than Andy Dalton yet Andy Dalton isn't considered a very good QB by very many people.

Using stats is difficult as a measuring stick for just about any football player is very difficult. QBs are even tougher because context matters so much. Who cares if a QB threw for 400 yards because they were down by 4 TDs in the first quarter? Likewise a QB that leads a team to an early lead by playing really well and also having a good defense behind him, may not have great stats but his stats mattered a lot more.

Having said all that, it is sometimes to really gauge how good a QB is. Peyton Manning makes his team better because of his ability to read the defense and exploit weaknesses in a way very few QBs have done. Other QBs can do it as well but it is very difficult for even the educated to know how much they are doing it.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

Is Russel Wilson an ELITE QB?

No.

I don't know how we've gotten to the point where football players are ranked by "rings" but Wilson isn't even close to being an elite QB.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I'm a Cowboys fan and I think Wilson is a top tier QB.

Always good to have another fan, from another teams say things like that about Wilson. Some folks like to pretend only Seahawks fans think he's good.

 

[flyerhawk]

I don't know how we've gotten to the point where football players are ranked by "rings"

Joe Montana says hi!

 

[ATL96Steeler]

So here is where some issues come up for some of us.

You say Matt Ryan put up good numbers last year. Here was his state line...

67.4% 4,515 yards 6.94 YPA 26 TD Int17 fumble 4 passer rating 89.6

So he threw a lot of picks and had a fairly pedestrian YPA yet people, not just you, think he put up good numbers because he threw the ball a lot. Personally I don't think those are good numbers. I think they are average numbers that yielded a lot of yards because they were down a lot because their defense was poor.

And this is where part of the problem lies. His numbers are somewhat worse than Andy Dalton yet Andy Dalton isn't considered a very good QB by very many people.

Using stats is difficult as a measuring stick for just about any football player is very difficult. QBs are even tougher because context matters so much. Who cares if a QB threw for 400 yards because they were down by 4 TDs in the first quarter? Likewise a QB that leads a team to an early lead by playing really well and also having a good defense behind him, may not have great stats but his stats mattered a lot more.

Having said all that, it is sometimes to really gauge how good a QB is. Peyton Manning makes his team better because of his ability to read the defense and exploit weaknesses in a way very few QBs have done. Other QBs can do it as well but it is very difficult for even the educated to know how much they are doing it.

I did say Ryan put up good numbers LY, but you brought up the actual stats...w/o really seeing the games, the stat line is not a tell all...Matt played really well last year when you consider all the factors, losing Julio for most of the season, Losing Roddy for 4 or 5 games, no consistent RB, losing the LT, eventually starting 4 players (LT, C, RG, RT) who had never started that position in the NFL...sacked probably in the top 3. You don't like the picks, but 4500/26/17 are good numbers when you watched the games....and I'm not a hardcore Falcon fan...just see the games since I live here.

My point was the game is on Ryan's arm...period...I'm not sure how RW would perform in an OFC like ATL has.

Hey...I'm with you I'd rather PIT had 30 passing plays for 260 and 30 running plays for 180...with just an average DEF their chances of winning way up imo.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Here are the top 4 QB's in QBR over the last 2 seasons

1. Peyton Manning (110.45 average)

2. Aaron Rodgers (106.45 average)

3. Drew Brees (100.5 average)

4. Russell Wilson (100.6 average)

He's done this with a far inferior O-line than the QB's above him. According to football focus here's the the O-line rankings of those teams during this 2 year period.

1. Peyton Manning (Broncos): #2 overall in 2012, #1 overall in 2013

2. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): #31 overall in 2012, #26 overall in 2013

3. Drew Brees (Saints): #7 overall in 2012, #4 overall in 2013

4. Russell Wilson (Seahawks): #20 overall in 2012, #32 overall in 2013



Meanwhile the WR corps rankings by cover32.com

1. Denver Broncos

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Green Bay Packers

4. San Franciso 49ers

5. Washington Redskins

6. New Orleans Saints

26. Hawks

So, RW has put up similar numbers to the "ELITE" QB's in his first two seasons with a team that places him in difficult third and longs, and has inferior pass blocking and WR corps in comparison to these other QB's respective teams. You have to be drunk to believe Wilson isn't elite.

 

[flyerhawk]

I did say Ryan put up good numbers LY, but you brought up the actual stats...w/o really seeing the games, the stat line is not a tell all...

That is correct! I watched a handful of games that the Falcons played. Matt Ryan certainly wasn't the problem. But at the same time his numbers weren't particularly good BECAUSE he was required to pass a LOT and while he put up big numbers it didn't lead to wins and it did lead to him having to throw balls he may not want to.

You don't like the picks, but 4500/26/17 are good numbers when you watched the games....and I'm not a hardcore Falcon fan...just see the games since I live here.

Compared to what?

My point was the game is on Ryan's arm...period...I'm not sure how RW would perform in an OFC like ATL has.

Yes and they were 4-12. I don't fault him for the team being 4-12 but he gets credit for "carrying" his team to a 4-12 record.

Hey...I'm with you I'd rather PIT had 30 passing plays for 260 and 30 running plays for 180...with just an average DEF their chances of winning way up imo.

Well ultimately we boil this down to QBs aren't as impactful to their team's success as most of us think, even the ones who throw 600 times a season.

 

[beardown07]

Yes.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

That is correct! I watched a handful of games that the Falcons played. Matt Ryan certainly wasn't the problem. But at the same time his numbers weren't particularly good BECAUSE he was required to pass a LOT and while he put up big numbers it didn't lead to wins and it did lead to him having to throw balls he may not want to.



Compared to what?



Yes and they were 4-12. I don't fault him for the team being 4-12 but he gets credit for "carrying" his team to a 4-12 record.



Well ultimately we boil this down to QBs aren't as impactful to their team's success as most of us think, even the ones who throw 600 times a season.

Your a keeper for sure flyerhawk. Really good to have you on board.

 

[flyerhawk]

Your a keeper for sure flyerhawk. Really good to have you on board.

Thanks! But I'm sure I will exasperate most people here at some point.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

That is correct! I watched a handful of games that the Falcons played. Matt Ryan certainly wasn't the problem. But at the same time his numbers weren't particularly good BECAUSE he was required to pass a LOT and while he put up big numbers it didn't lead to wins and it did lead to him having to throw balls he may not want to.

Me...likewise with RW...maybe 6 games LY including the playoffs.



Compared to what? Compared to nothing really, but if you want more numbers..just look @ 2012... 4719/32/14 but sacked a whole lot less...relative to circumstances, Ryan played well in 2013 imo.



Yes and they were 4-12. I don't fault him for the team being 4-12 but he gets credit for "carrying" his team to a 4-12 record. Yes he did...I think I've pointed out the reasons for the record.



Well ultimately we boil this down to QBs aren't as impactful to their team's success as most of us think, even the ones who throw 600 times a season.

That one I would disagree with wholeheartedly...QB is the most impactful position on the field and it's largely the reason that perennial non-playoff teams that have decent talent otherwise such as CLE have a tough time getting into the playoffs. And it's also largely the reason that teams like NO, NE, now DEN, GB always have a chance to make the playoffs.

One the other hand I think it shows that football is the ultimate team sport...no one position can win games.

Getting back to the crux of my point here...if RW was put into a role where he did have to carry the team (like a Matt Ryan) would he be as successful as he's been to this point...and my answer is IDK. What SEA has built here is not unique...TB, BAL, PIT all were able to win SBs using a similar formula...the challenge like any SB team is sustaining it once the QB position gets paid the market rate.

 

[flyerhawk]

QB is certainly the most impactful positioning. But if we were to quantify that it would likely be something like 25% of the importance of a team whereas the rest of the positions would all represent single digits.

FTR, I wasn't really arguing that Ryan played poorly. I was simply pointing out that his stats aren't nominally all that great and don't really represent his play last year.

As a counter point we could talk about Matt Stafford who started off playing really well but started to really struggle down stretch which cost his team some Ws and likely the playoffs. You can't really see that in the numbers though.

 

[Lemon Harang Pie]

Here are the top 4 QB's in QBR over the last 2 seasons

1. Peyton Manning (110.45 average)

2. Aaron Rodgers (106.45 average)

3. Drew Brees (100.5 average)

4. Russell Wilson (100.6 average)

He's done this with a far inferior O-line than the QB's above him. According to football focus here's the the O-line rankings of those teams during this 2 year period.

1. Peyton Manning (Broncos): #2 overall in 2012, #1 overall in 2013

2. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): #31 overall in 2012, #26 overall in 2013

3. Drew Brees (Saints): #7 overall in 2012, #4 overall in 2013

4. Russell Wilson (Seahawks): #20 overall in 2012, #32 overall in 2013



Meanwhile the WR corps rankings by cover32.com

1. Denver Broncos

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Green Bay Packers

4. San Franciso 49ers

5. Washington Redskins

6. New Orleans Saints

26. Hawks

So, RW has put up similar numbers to the "ELITE" QB's in his first two seasons with a team that places him in difficult third and longs, and has inferior pass blocking and WR corps in comparison to these other QB's respective teams. You have to be drunk to believe Wilson isn't elite.

Not numbers. Number.

You basically just cherry picked the only state that puts Wilson even remotely in the conversation. His numbers really aren't similar. Peyton Manning threw more TD's last year than Wilson has thrown in the past two. He had almost more attempts last season than Wilson has thrown in the past two seasons. He had somewhat "similar" numbers to Aaron Rodgers but Rodgers missed half the season!

 

[flyerhawk]

Yeah. Hard to argue that Wilson is in the elite QB group at this point. He's only in his 2nd year. And while I think he is going to have a great year this year, I don't think he will be in those lofty numbers this year either.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

QB is certainly the most impactful positioning. But if we were to quantify that it would likely be something like 25% of the importance of a team whereas the rest of the positions would all represent single digits.

FTR, I wasn't really arguing that Ryan played poorly. I was simply pointing out that his stats aren't nominally all that great and don't really represent his play last year.

As a counter point we could talk about Matt Stafford who started off playing really well but started to really struggle down stretch which cost his team some Ws and likely the playoffs. You can't really see that in the numbers though.

QB...Idk the number, but I wouldn't argue against 25%

FTR...the only reason I interjected Ryan into this was style of OFC as a comparison to RW's style of OFC...did not intent to drill down into his stats....the stats in this pass happy NFL really don't mean a whole lot which is why I think the term elite has to be defined by more than #s....can your QB bring you back down 2 scores in the 4th with 6 mins left? 2 min play, 3rd and passing down, performance in elimination games

Stafford...great talent, but he's not as good as he thinks he is imo...his gunslinger mentality tends to hurt the team at crucial times...he was the same way @ UGA. He needs a HC that can rein him in...learn that punting is okay...preserving a FG is better than trying to force 6 sometimes.

 

[Wamu]

Not sure if he's in the elite category just yet but one thing for sure...he's not paid like the elite's are. But that will change once his rookie contract is up. And will he get a better deal than what the 49ers gave Kap?

 

[SonnyCID]

Not sure if he's in the elite category just yet but one thing for sure...he's not paid like the elite's are. But that will change once his rookie contract is up. And will he get a better deal than what the 49ers gave Kap?

He deserves a better deal than Kaep got.