Indy/CIN predictions

[DanBengalfan]

During the Denver/Cincy game, Andy Dalton met the great one... Tim Tebow.

Some of Tebow's greatness rubbed off on him.

Because of this, the Bengals will win Sunday

Bengals 17
Indy 14

Bengals keep them around by playing conservative and only scoring when necessary. Indy with the 14 points is a good bet.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Disagree. I would like to see them open up the playbook more. Matt freakin' Cassel threw for 4 TD's and like 900 yards on this defense. Green is better than Bowe, and Gresham is a better 2nd option than anyone on that KC team.

Add in the fact that Cincy can actually run the ball, and utilize some play-action. I think it might be close early on, but the Bengals will pull away late.

Too much depth. Too much athleticism on defense, and our OL will nuetralize Freeny and Mathis with the run game.

Bengals 34
Dolts 13

 

[cincygrad]

I was going to pick a Colts upset, but then I read their injury report...... This team is quickly looking like a CFL squad.

Bengals 23
Colts 9

 

[vancelot23]

We're the Bengals. We don't pull away from anybody. I'll say:
Cincy 23
Indy 13

 

[Tubbs1518]

I'm gonna say Bengals - 27 Colts - 10. Colts will hit their one big play we give up a game. Other than that their offense will be terrible, especially if Addai doesn't play. Crocker is questionable right now. Hopefully he will sit out and Mays can get a shot.

 

[cincygrad]

If Taylor Mays plays than I will give Indy an extra touchdown.

 

[Restore the Roar]

Disagree. I would like to see them open up the playbook more. Matt freakin' Cassel threw for 4 TD's and like 900 yards on this defense. Green is better than Bowe, and Gresham is a better 2nd option than anyone on that KC team.

Add in the fact that Cincy can actually run the ball, and utilize some play-action. I think it might be close early on, but the Bengals will pull away late.

Too much depth. Too much athleticism on defense, and our OL will nuetralize Freeny and Mathis with the run game.

Bengals 34Dolts 13

My early nominee for homer of the week.


Bengals 23
Colts 13

 

[Cincyfan78]

Benson has a few 100 yard games. While they didn't do well last week, overall they have done a good job. They stay committed to the run, and that helps the offense. Cincy is right in the middle of the pack, ranked 15th in rushing offense, even after last weeks' abysmal effort. This team can run the ball.

 

[Tubbs1518]

If Taylor Mays plays than I will give Indy an extra touchdown.

He is no worse than Crocker. I actually think he will surprise and do fairly well in this defense.

 

[DanBengalfan]

I thought the handicap was 14 points, wonder if I was dreaming when I saw that, it says -7/-8

ok then, Marvin won't be betting the spread to raise money for his secret scouts. lol.

 

[Restore the Roar]

Benson has a few 100 yard games. While they didn't do well last week, overall they have done a good job. They stay committed to the run, and that helps the offense. Cincy is right in the middle of the pack, ranked 15th in rushing offense, even after last weeks' abysmal effort. This team can run the ball.

They are 18th in yards/game and 20th in YPC. That shouldn't fool anyone into thinking we can automaticaly run on any team, no matter how bad their run D is. Throw in you never know what kind of effort Benson will bring....Just saying it's not a sure bet by any means, even against Indy.

 

[DanBengalfan]

WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread - Week 6, 2011

Indianapolis Colts (0-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
Line: Bengals by 7. Total: 41.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Bengals -4.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Bengals -4.
Sunday, Oct. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

Video of the Week: ESPN really sucks, so Hank Williams had to issue an apology for comparing Barack Obama to Benjamin Netanyahu. Well, sort of. Here's a hilarious parody of Hank Williams apologizing for his Obama comments.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton's pretty good. He made one poor decision at Jacksonville when he tossed a careless interception deep in his own territory, but was solid otherwise. Dalton has been decent in every game this year, save for his Week 3 tilt against the 49ers, which is definitely forgivable based on how San Francisco has played recently.

Dalton shouldn't have any issues moving the chains against an Indianapolis secondary that has surrendered 250-plus yards in three consecutive weeks. The Colts are 27th against the pass (8.3 YPA).

I don't expect Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis to be huge factors in this contest. The Bengals run the ball well with Cedric Benson, and Indianapolis just surrendered 100-plus yards to Jackie Battle.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts won't have nearly as much success running the ball. Joseph Addai will miss this contest, so it'll be up to Delone Carter and Donald Brown to navigate through Cincinnati's fifth-ranked rush defense. The Bengals just restricted the Jaguars to less than four yards per carry, which was an impressive feat.

Curtis Painter didn't get much help from Addai last week, yet was able to put together a brilliant first half. He fell apart after intermission, however, so I'm not really sure what to expect from him. The Bengals are pretty stout against the pass, but the same could have been said about the Chiefs before Pierre Garcon torched Brandon Flowers on multiple occasions.

Ultimately though, I think Indianapolis can move the chains occasionally enough to stay close to the spread. The Bengals have a really good defense, but as Blaine Gabbert proved Sunday, they're not impenetrable.

RECAP: I posted the following trend below: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002.

I don't think this situation really exemplifies the spirit of this system though. Large favorites have been successful prior to their bye because large favorites are typically really good teams that are focused with a week off coming up. The Bengals are solid, but they're not a really good team.

I think I'm going to take the points because the desperate Colts are hungry for their first victory. I wouldn't bet on it though.


The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
The Colts are desperate for a win.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the Colts.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 64% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Colts.
Hello, Goodbye: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002 (Marvin Lewis 0-1).
Colts are 44-28 ATS on the road since 2002.
Bengals are 6-22 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
Bengals are 2-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
Opening Line: Bengals -7.
Opening Total: 38.
Weather: .


Week 6 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Colts 23
Colts +7 (0 Units)
Over 41 (0 Units)
Discuss Game, Talk Trash

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Bengals 27
Colts 16

 

[cincygrad]

He is no worse than Crocker. I actually think he will surprise and do fairly well in this defense.

Why? He has serious physical flaws which is why the 49ers were so willing to dump him. It was also telling that no team wanted to offer more than a 7th to get him.

Crocker may not be very good, but the guy has started for 3 NFL football teams. That's something that Mays is unlikely to ever be able to say.

 

[Tubbs1518]

Same way Zimmer made Williams a 5 time pro bowler in Dallas. They are the same player except Mays is faster. I see no reason to think he can't do the same thing here with Mays.

 

[kramer1]

Mays blows. He shouldn't be in the league.

Bengals 10
Colts 27

 

[Tubbs1518]

Lol if your picking the Colts to win you shouldn't be allowed to pick.

 

[DanBengalfan]

colts score 27...

repost when sober.

 

[vancelot23]

I say Garcon beats somebody deep at least once, but 27 might be a little much.

 

[kramer1]

I say Garcon beats somebody deep at least once, but 27 might be a little much.

Wayne is going to abuse Toast Hall.