HurricaneDij's 2016-17 NBA Outlook (September 2016)

[WiggyRuss]

The fact that the Lakers could only get Deng and Mozgov proves my point. Those guys aren't franchise changing talents. They are very good pickups for a team in the Lakers situation (a team trying to develop young talent and get back into contention). But let's not pretend they will be anything more than afterthoughts when the Lakers actually return to contention.

Of course teams can get guys like Deng and Mozgov. Guys at that level don't always have a lot of choices and will generally go for the team that will give them the most money and/or the most years.

The franchise changing guys like KD, Lebron, Westbrook, etc. however, can go anywhere they want and in order to get them the team has to show the ability to win right away.

I think that is seriously up for debate.

I think it is much more intelligent to keep that cap space open and rent it out for assets that could one day become core members of your team, keep open minutes and shots for the young guys, and make sure you do not win enough games where you jeopardize getting an impact player in the draft. In addition- those assets could then be dealt (or kept) for when you are actually in position to compete.

I realize the counter argument is- "you need vets to teach the young guys". It seems to me to be a very poor fit to sign guys in their late twenties/early thirties (especially guys with recent injury histories) to 4 year contracts to mesh with guys in their early-early 20's (or even younger when you look at Ingram).

The Lakers decided to go one way- while a team like the Sixers decided to go another way. It will be interesting to see which method bears more immediate/long term success for two teams going through a rebuild. One team seems more set on giving all the young guys ample playing time and keeping cap space open to acquire more assets- while the other signed vets to supplement the process and teach the young kids. Will be an interesting case study to see which team does better.

Talent is fairly equal....

Russell/Ingram/Randle/Clarkson/Nance vs. Simmons/Saric/Okafor/Embiid/Noel/Covington.......Sixers due of course own the Lakers #1 pick next year if it happens to transfer too.

 

[trojanfan12]

I think that is seriously up for debate.

I think it is much more intelligent to keep that cap space open and rent it out for assets that could one day become core members of your team, keep open minutes and shots for the young guys, and make sure you do not win enough games where you jeopardize getting an impact player in the draft. In addition- those assets could then be dealt (or kept) for when you are actually in position to compete.

I realize the counter argument is- "you need vets to teach the young guys". It seems to me to be a very poor fit to sign guys in their late twenties/early thirties (especially guys with recent injury histories) to 4 year contracts to mesh with guys in their early-early 20's (or even younger when you look at Ingram).

The Lakers decided to go one way- while a team like the Sixers decided to go another way. It will be interesting to see which method bears more immediate/long term success for two teams going through a rebuild. One team seems more set on giving all the young guys ample playing time and keeping cap space open to acquire more assets- while the other signed vets to supplement the process and teach the young kids. Will be an interesting case study to see which team does better.

Talent is fairly equal....

Russell/Ingram/Randle/Clarkson/Nance vs. Simmons/Saric/Okafor/Embiid/Noel/Covington.......Sixers due of course own the Lakers #1 pick next year if it happens to transfer too.

It's always up for debate until we see what happens out on the court. Both methods have positives and negatives.

The positives for the way the Sixers are going is that if those young guys can all learn and gel together, then you have a young team that is set to be competitive for years. Chemistry should be good and they will all know each other very well. As they improve, they can then add a role player here and there to get them over the top.

The negatives are that not all of those young guys will develop at the same pace and some may not develop at all. If there isn't enough improvement, then you end up with a team that really doesn't get much better and can't really attract top FA's. Also, young teams with no real vets to help mentor them are going to lose...a lot. That can shake their confidence and become detrimental to their development. Also, they may get tired of the losing, see no light at the end of the tunnel and decide to jump ship when they become FA's.

The positives for the Lakers way is that you have solid vets who can mentor the young guys and help them to develop a little faster. This way, they should be able to win a few more games sooner, show a true plan to get back to contention and become more attractive to FA's who can actually make a difference. I would prefer that Deng and Mozgov were signed to shorter deals, but when a team is trying to rebuild, sometimes they have to pay more/give more years than they would like.

The negatives are if those vets get hurt, it's kind of hard for them to mentor anyone. Also, you can end up with chemistry issues if the vets are taking too much playing time away from the young guys and the young guys grow impatient. We saw a little bit of that over the past couple of years when Byron chose to go with vets trying to win meaningless games since the Lakers weren't going to make the playoffs anyway.

End of the day, both ways can be successful and both ways can fail. It all comes down to the makeup of the players and how the coaching staff handles things.

As for cap space, when the Lakers are ready to go "big game hunting" and actually have a legitimate shot at landing someone, they will be able to create the cap space necessary.

Guys like Deng and Mozgov, if they play well, can be traded to playoff contending teams who are looking for a solid vet role player to help them.

 

[WiggyRuss]

It's always up for debate until we see what happens out on the court. Both methods have positives and negatives.

The positives for the way the Sixers are going is that if those young guys can all learn and gel together, then you have a young team that is set to be competitive for years. Chemistry should be good and they will all know each other very well. As they improve, they can then add a role player here and there to get them over the top.

The negatives are that not all of those young guys will develop at the same pace and some may not develop at all. If there isn't enough improvement, then you end up with a team that really doesn't get much better and can't really attract top FA's. Also, young teams with no real vets to help mentor them are going to lose...a lot. That can shake their confidence and become detrimental to their development.

The positives for the Lakers way is that you have solid vets who can mentor the young guys and help them to develop a little faster. This way, they should be able to win a few more games sooner, show a true plan to get back to contention and become more attractive to FA's who can actually make a difference. I would prefer that Deng and Mozgov were signed to shorter deals, but when a team is trying to rebuild, sometimes they have to pay more/give more years than they would like.

The negatives are if those vets get hurt, it's kind of hard for them to mentor anyone. Also, you can end up with chemistry issues if the vets are taking too much playing time away from the young guys and the young guys grow impatient. We saw a little bit of that over the past couple of years when Byron chose to go with vets later in games that were meaningless since the Lakers weren't going to make the playoffs anyway.

End of the day, both ways can be successful and both ways can fail. It all comes down to the makeup of the players and how the coaching staff handles things.

As for cap space, when the Lakers are ready to go "big game hunting" and actually have a legitimate shot at landing someone, they will be able to create the cap space necessary.

Guys like Deng and Mozgov, if they play well, can be traded to playoff contending teams who are looking for a solid vet role player to help them.

I agree with the vast majority of this except the statement that "can be traded to playoff contending teams"....I think you would have to attach a fairly substantial asset to Deng or Mozgov to get a contending team to assume like 3 years 45 million of Mozgov in his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons or 3 years 54 million for Deng in his age 32, 33, 34 year seasons.

Thats a lot of risk considering both players have had fairly recent and significant injury concerns.....

The Lakers both (i) kept their pick and added the most highly touted talent yet to their rebuild, and (ii) hired a very strong coaching candidate. While I personally think the Mozgov/Deng moves were subpar---- if the Lakers hired the wrong coach and got unlucky in the lottery they could be in some serious deep shit right....getting the right coach and a potential future all star in this offseason finally put them on the right track to future respectability.

 

[trojanfan12]

I agree with the vast majority of this except the statement that "can be traded to playoff contending teams"....I think you would have to attach a fairly substantial asset to Deng or Mozgov to get a contending team to assume like 3 years 45 million of Mozgov in his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons or 3 years 54 million for Deng in his age 32, 33, 34 year seasons.

Thats a lot of risk considering both players have had fairly recent and significant injury concerns.....

The Lakers both (i) kept their pick and added the most highly touted talent yet to their rebuild, and (ii) hired a very strong coaching candidate. While I personally think the Mozgov/Deng moves were subpar---- if the Lakers hired the wrong coach and got unlucky in the lottery they could be in some serious deep shit right....getting the right coach and a potential future all star in this offseason finally put them on the right track to future respectability.

I think you may be underestimating the ability to move Deng and/or Mozgov. Obviously, their health and how they play will dictate what, if anything can be done, so there is definitely some risk involved. But there is always risk involved.

As far as injury, it's a pretty safe bet that the Lakers had each player go through physicals and did their due diligence re: each players recovery. There is, of course, always the chance that they will get hurt again, but that risk is there with every player.

I wouldn't expect the Lakers to be looking to trade either player this year and probably not next year either. I would think that if that happens, it will likely be in the off-season after year 2 of their deals or at some point before the trade deadline in year 3 of their deals.

I agree re: this past off-season getting them on the right track. They had to get through the last couple of years of Kobe, but were still able to add some very good young talent with guys like Randle, Russell, Clarkson and Nance Jr. Now they have Ingram who could potentially be the best of the bunch.

Obviously, they had the wrong coach, but seem to have corrected that this past off-season as well. I'm actually almost as excited for the season to start as I have been when they were contenders every year. I really want to see what Luke brings and how the young guys respond now that Kobe is out of the picture.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I think you may be underestimating the ability to move Deng and/or Mozgov. Obviously, their health and how they play will dictate what, if anything can be done, so there is definitely some risk involved. But there is always risk involved.

As far as injury, it's a pretty safe bet that the Lakers had each player go through physicals and did their due diligence re: each players recovery. There is, of course, always the chance that they will get hurt again, but that risk is there with every player.

I wouldn't expect the Lakers to be looking to trade either player this year and probably not next year either. I would think that if that happens, it will likely be in the off-season after year 2 of their deals or at some point before the trade deadline in year 3 of their deals.

I agree re: this past off-season getting them on the right track. They had to get through the last couple of years of Kobe, but were still able to add some very good young talent with guys like Randle, Russell, Clarkson and Nance Jr. Now they have Ingram who could potentially be the best of the bunch.

Obviously, they had the wrong coach, but seem to have corrected that this past off-season as well. I'm actually almost as excited for the season to start as I have been when they were contenders every year. I really want to see what Luke brings and how the young guys respond now that Kobe is out of the picture.

yah...if you guys had like kept Byron or hired a retread like a Hollins or something- their would be no light at the end of the tunnel....

now with Ingram and Walton- i think there is finally a reason to be optimistic and a route to success is finally being built. An innovative system and a very talented player with a ton of potential to be the focal point is what every single team is trying to get.

I still hate the fact over a 1/3 of your cap is spent on Deng and Mozgov.

One of the things that Bill Simmons does when looking at acquisitions is say- could these guys have played in the NBA Finals....obviously that answer was NO on Mozgov.....though i think Deng would have gotten some run....it just kills me a team with so many talented youngsters signs a guy to a 4 year deal that is 31 years old and plays the same position as the most highly touted prospect they have added to the team since Andrew Bynum (or Kobe).

The thing you have to HOPE its not - is Jim Buss sacrificing the long term success of the franchise against trying to make the team look better in the short term to save his ass. I think you can smell more than a little whiff of that in those signings.

 

[trojanfan12]

yah...if you guys had like kept Byron or hired a retread like a Hollins or something- their would be no light at the end of the tunnel....

Sure there would. It just would have been a train.

now with Ingram and Walton- i think there is finally a reason to be optimistic and a route to success is finally being built. An innovative system and a very talented player with a ton of potential to be the focal point is what every single team is trying to get.

Agree.

One of the things that Bill Simmons does when looking at acquisitions is say- could these guys have played in the NBA Finals....obviously that answer was NO on Mozgov.....though i think Deng would have gotten some run....it just kills me a team with so many talented youngsters signs a guy to a 4 year deal that is 31 years old and plays the same position as the most highly touted prospect they have added to the team since Andrew Bynum (or Kobe).

I'm not in love with the Mozgov and Deng deals, but I understand the point of each. I think both will probably start for a good portion and possibly all of this season, but I also expect that Ingram and Zubac will get plenty of playing time. I like that having them allows the Lakers to bring Ingram and Zubac along a little more slowly. As I said, I'd have preferred both on shorter deals, but when a team is in the Lakers position, they do what they have to.

The thing you have to HOPE its not - is Jim Buss sacrificing the long term success of the franchise against trying to make the team look better in the short term to save his ass. I think you can smell more than a little whiff of that in those signings.

I don't think it is. Very little, if anything, was heard from Jim Buss during the off-season.

Based on everything I've read and heard, I think these were guys that the Lakers felt they could get for the reasons we've already discussed and that Luke was on board with both signings. That tells me that he likely has an idea of how he wants to use each of them.

 

[tducey]

Going to be a fun season. Don't think the Warriors win the title or the Cavs repeat, league is a crapshoot this year for sure.

 

[tlance]

Going to be a fun season. Don't think the Warriors win the title or the Cavs repeat, league is a crapshoot this year for sure.

Um.....

The exact opposite of this is true. Predicting someone other than Cleveland or Golden State at this juncture without injury to either is a little crazy. There is at least an 80% chance this year's Finals will be round 3.

 

[bksballer89]

Going to be a fun season. Don't think the Warriors win the title or the Cavs repeat, league is a crapshoot this year for sure.

 

[Mecca]

Sorry I take back my ROY predictions. Forgot about one guy who is going to dominate: Pat McCaw.

I know you are joking.

He won't get half the minutes that some of the other guys will see from jump.

But, I think we will look back in a few years and say....Levert, Mccaw and Zu-BLOCKA were steals.

 

[Mecca]

I agree with the vast majority of this except the statement that "can be traded to playoff contending teams"....I think you would have to attach a fairly substantial asset to Deng or Mozgov to get a contending team to assume like 3 years 45 million of Mozgov in his age 31, 32 and 33 seasons or 3 years 54 million for Deng in his age 32, 33, 34 year seasons.

Thats a lot of risk considering both players have had fairly recent and significant injury concerns.....

The Lakers both (i) kept their pick and added the most highly touted talent yet to their rebuild, and (ii) hired a very strong coaching candidate. While I personally think the Mozgov/Deng moves were subpar---- if the Lakers hired the wrong coach and got unlucky in the lottery they could be in some serious deep shit right....getting the right coach and a potential future all star in this offseason finally put them on the right track to future respectability.

Maybe Mozgov if he keeps getting injured.

But, I think a Team like say.....the Clipppers?

Would take Deng if they retain CP3 and Blake.

If he has a good year, Teams with cap might give him a long look.

 

[Wamu]

Going to be a fun season. Don't think the Warriors win the title or the Cavs repeat, league is a crapshoot this year for sure.

I'm putting my money on a 76ers/Lakers Final.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Denver will be a FA destination one day?

When they start a professional skiing league...yes.

Just got Paul Millsap.

Now tell me, who exactly have the Lakers gotten through FA the last five years (or in this millennium really)?

Nash, Payton, and Malone each on their last legs is about all I could think of...

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Paul Millsap = Team first

Paul George = Me first

 

[Heatles84]

Just got Paul Millsap.

Now tell me, who exactly have the Lakers gotten through FA the last five years (or in this millennium really)?

Nash, Payton, and Malone each on their last legs is about all I could think of...

Lakers have literally stated that they plan on going into the 2018 free agency with as much cap space as possible with George and Lebron both being free agents.

 

[HurricaneDij39]

Lakers have literally stated that they plan on going into the 2018 free agency with as much cap space as possible with George and Lebron both being free agents.

Well good luck to them.

 

[Shaqdaddy11]

Just got Paul Millsap.

Now tell me, who exactly have the Lakers gotten through FA the last five years (or in this millennium really)?

Nash, Payton, and Malone each on their last legs is about all I could think of...

So the Pacers are in the crapper and the new laughingstock, but you have to take a dig at the Lakers for what exactly.

I see you're still a whining little bitch.

 

[tlance]

First Round:

• 1) Cleveland over 8) Washington in five
• 5) Atlanta over 4) Toronto is six
• 7) Detroit over 2) Boston in six
• 3) Indiana over 6) Chicago in six
• 1) Golden State over 8) Memphis in six
• 5) Portland over 4) Houston in six
• 2) San Antonio over 7) Oklahoma City in five
• 3) L.A. Clippers over 6) Utah in seven

Second Round:

• 1) Cleveland over 5) Atlanta in seven
• 3) Indiana over 7) Detroit in seven
• 1) Golden State over 5) Portland in six
• 3) L.A. Clippers over 2) San Antonio in six

Conference Finals:

• 1) Cleveland over 3) Indiana in five
• 1) Golden State over 3) L.A. Clippers in six

MVP: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City

Sixth Man of the Year: Eric Gordon, Houston

Most Improved Player: Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver (@tlance )

LWP (League's Worst Player): Nick Young, L.A. Lakers

Coach of the Year: Nate McMillan, Indiana



Other Breakout Candidates:

• Clint Capela, Houston
• Myles Turner, Indiana
• Stanley Johnson, Detroit
• Solomon Hill, New Orleans
• Andrew Nicholson, Washington
• Bobby Portis, Chicago
• Tyler Ennis, Milwaukee (deep sleeper)

Over the Hill:

• Chris Bosh, Miami
• Manu Ginobili, San Antonio
• Joakim Noah, New York
• Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
• David West, Golden State
• Matt Barnes, Sacramento

NBA Finals: Cleveland over Golden State in six

Finals MVP: LeBron James.

Just saw this. Most improved player?

Mudiay sucks. His skills and bball IQ are lacking. Again, you continue to demonstrate your inability to evaluate players time and again.

I know this was an old post, but eventually you learn to stop taking shots at me. Most of your predictions were good, but then you have to go and ruin it by calling me out on your worst one.

 

[DJ]

Paul Millsap = Team first

Paul George = Me first

If he was team first he would have stayed in Atlanta. God, you're a dumbass.

 

[DJ]

Just got Paul Millsap.

Now tell me, who exactly have the Lakers gotten through FA the last five years (or in this millennium really)?

Nash, Payton, and Malone each on their last legs is about all I could think of...

Over-paid Millsap who is 32 years old.....but it's Demver you'd have to over=pay them, just like when you tried to over-pay Wade. Good luck signing Gallo. Now, you have Millsap and Faried, they play the same position.