How I rank the "Big Six" in this year's draft

[WNY_FOOTBALL_DUDE]

He's mentioned as a late 1st rounder, but he's also the 6th QB off the board, which tells me it's more of a position thing than him being an elite prospect. There have been a TON of late first round QBs who never amounted to much - Tebow, Paxton Lynch, Manziel, Bridgewater (even before his injury he was just OK) and back to Jim Druckenmiller, and everything in between. It's a prime position so it's overvalued more than any other spot on the field by far. Big 12 QBs have a long history of being awful, not just average. It's difficult to name the best one in NFL history. Journeyman Bradford? VY? Ryan Tannehill? Yuck.

I reviewed the big boards from CBS Sports, NFL Network, and Sports Illustrated. 2/3 have him as the #6 QB in the draft and seen as a 2nd to 3rd rounder. CBS sports has him ranked as the #1 QB in the draft. My belief (nobody knows for sure), but I suspect he'll be the 5th or 6th QB drafted and somebody will grab him between the mid-1st round and the bottom of the second round. This by all means is no insult to Rudolph. Getting drafted period is statistically unlikely for the college football population. The fact that he's seen as a top QB prospect (Early round potential) is a high compliment.

Docking Rudolph for being a Big-12 guy is illogical in my eyes. Rudolph is not responsible for the failure of Bradford, Gabbert, Weeden, VY, and so forth. If we were logically consistent, then we should dock Darnold for being a USC quarterback. You think Big-12 guys have been "below average", USC guys have been just as bad. Palmer has been the only hit among, and even he under-performed in the NFL.

I watch a lot of college football, and I constantly review games via youtube. I don't really see any major problems with his game. Rudolph's potential is better than other Big-12's quaterbacks, because he plays extremely well against non-Big-12 competition. His game is not about dink-and-dunk passing. He actually has a vertical game and doesn't turn the football over.

And if we're logically consistent, Mayfield shouldn't be in the 1st round conversation either. He's a Big-12 guy too, and he's undersized for the position.

I love so many things about his game. Fumbles are very correctable, and he also played behind a pretty bad OL this past season. I love his potential, and his floor is definitely the highest of the QBs in this draft IMO, and it's not really close, which is why I hope to hell Cleveland takes him.

One hope he corrects that the fumbles. You cannot be 100% sure. Last season was a bit of a turnover machine, and that concerns me.

Purely on potential. I think his ceiling is sky high. He obviously needs a year or two redshirting and continuing to learn, but he bring a ton to the table. The obvious size/arm/athleticism can't be coached. His footwork is decent but should continue to improve. I like his potential in Cleveland because Tyrod will allow him at least 1 full year to sit and learn. If Hue Jackson can make Andy Dalton into a good enough QB, I'd love to see what he can do with a talent like Allen.

If he struggles with his accuracy in college against MWC competition, things are not going to get better in the NFL. This is especially true if he goes to the AFC North.

Looking great in shorts and a t-shirt means very little. Ditto for the big body and the so-called cannon for an arm. What I care about is what he produces on the field. If those so-called elite tools never really translate, then they mean nothing.

 

[ehb5]

1. Rosen
2. Mayfield

3. Darnold
4. Jackson

5. Allen
6. Rudolph

 

[handicappers]

Yes. He's a better prospect coming out of college.

False

 

[Across The Field]

I reviewed the big boards from CBS Sports, NFL Network, and Sports Illustrated. 2/3 have him as the #6 QB in the draft and seen as a 2nd to 3rd rounder. CBS sports has him ranked as the #1 QB in the draft. My belief (nobody knows for sure), but I suspect he'll be the 5th or 6th QB drafted and somebody will grab him between the mid-1st round and the bottom of the second round. This by all means is no insult to Rudolph. Getting drafted period is statistically unlikely for the college football population. The fact that he's seen as a top QB prospect (Early round potential) is a high compliment.

Docking Rudolph for being a Big-12 guy is illogical in my eyes. Rudolph is not responsible for the failure of Bradford, Gabbert, Weeden, VY, and so forth. If we were logically consistent, then we should dock Darnold for being a USC quarterback. You think Big-12 guys have been "below average", USC guys have been just as bad. Palmer has been the only hit among, and even he under-performed in the NFL.

I watch a lot of college football, and I constantly review games via youtube. I don't really see any major problems with his game. Rudolph's potential is better than other Big-12's quaterbacks, because he plays extremely well against non-Big-12 competition. His game is not about dink-and-dunk passing. He actually has a vertical game and doesn't turn the football over.

And if we're logically consistent, Mayfield shouldn't be in the 1st round conversation either. He's a Big-12 guy too, and he's undersized for the position.

I listed out the concerns that are brought about in his draft profile. Docking him for being a Big 12 QB is extremely logical. Again, not a single QB drafted from the Big 12 has ever become an elite NFL QB. It's shocking, considering the video game numbers they put up in college, but the combination of gimmicky offenses and subpar defenses make it so they are unable to fully transition. Go back and look at all the QBs that have come from the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor, etc. Of the current teams, the best ever QB is Andy Dalton, but he was at TCU before they were in the Big 12. Also, Palmer had an exponentially better career than any Big 12 QB. Mark Sanchez' career numbers and accomplishments are better than nearly every Big 12 QB outside of Bradford and Tannehill. Hell, I'd put Rob Johnson or Rodney Peete in my starting lineup over the majority Big 12 QB who's gone to the NFL.

One hope he corrects that the fumbles. You cannot be 100% sure. Last season was a bit of a turnover machine, and that concerns me.

I don't see it being a big deal, honestly. His habit of holding the ball with one hand in the pocket is something that is correctable.

If he struggles with his accuracy in college against MWC competition, things are not going to get better in the NFL. This is especially true if he goes to the AFC North.

Looking great in shorts and a t-shirt means very little. Ditto for the big body and the so-called cannon for an arm. What I care about is what he produces on the field. If those so-called elite tools never really translate, then they mean nothing.

Fair points there. It's a big part of why I'm hoping so badly that Cleveland takes Darnold over Allen. I love his ceiling, but let someone else take that huge of a risk.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The Big 12 argument is fundamentally stupid as it debases criticism from the player and instead double-weighes schedule. It's a tertiary argument, not thee argument. I don't bet, but if I did bet, I would make a strong wager Mahomes and Mayfield both pan out and this narrative looks bad. Yes numbers are produced, yes some of them are suspicious. As with most any college conference for that matter. What you can do is actually look under the hood and make basic observations... you should be able to tell the difference between a Mayfield and Graham Harrell for instance.

Mayfield played good defenses in Texas, x2 TCU, tOSU, and UGA last year and did well against all of them for instance. List gets longer when you go past last year. Anyone bringing up the Big12 argument with Mayfield is just making a fool of themselves. The only defense he didn't completely obliterate I listed was UGA, and he still had a YPA of at least 8.

 

[Across The Field]

The Big 12 argument is fundamentally stupid as it debases criticism from the player and instead double-weighes schedule. It's a tertiary argument, not thee argument. I don't bet, but if I did bet, I would make a strong wager Mahomes and Mayfield both pan out and this narrative looks bad. Yes numbers are produced, yes some of them are suspicious. As with most any college conference for that matter. What you can do is actually look under the hood and make basic observations... you should be able to tell the difference between a Mayfield and Graham Harrell for instance.

Mayfield played good defenses in Texas, x2 TCU, tOSU, and UGA last year and did well against all of them for instance. List gets longer when you go past last year. Anyone bringing up the Big12 argument with Mayfield is just making a fool of themselves. The only defense he didn't completely obliterate I listed was UGA, and he still had a YPA of at least 8.

Nothing they do will make the narrative look bad. Every single year, we hear about how amazing the QB play is in the Big 12 and how their QBs are all amazing, yet they have basically all fallen flat in the NFL. Sam Bradford is the greatest Big 12 QB, and he's a journeyman who has never even played in, let alone won, a playoff game. Hell, Tebow did that.

It's more than just the past couple years. This goes back decades. Would you believe the Big 12 has never produced a SB winning QB? In fact, I don't think they've ever even produced a QB that has started in a conference title game. If I'm wrong, tell me, but I'm pretty sure I'm not missing anyone.

Mayfield looked great, there's no question. Maybe he pans out. However, even if he does, he will be the exception. Mahomes is a total crapshoot at this point.

 

[Clayton]

I don't think 'Big 12 QB' is an automatic disqualification but it can elevate a QB if he isn't making reads or complex decisions. The overblown part of the Big 12 QB thing is the knock against Big 12 defenses. The part that matters is the system the QB is using to evaluate the field and whether or not it hides the QB's ability to make all of the throws on the field. Can Rudolph read a defense? At all? That will make or break him.

Rudolph is a guy that can push the ball downfield but people question his arm talent. This can go both ways. Deshaun Watson really proved the doubters wrong last year. I think for Rudolph to be the best QB of this class he would need that level of arm talent.

The reason why Aaron Rodgers fell in the draft is because people thought he was a system QB. Might as well be the same thing as Big 12 QB.

 

[jarntt]

One man's opinion:
https://nypost.com/2018/04/17/one-draft-qb-spared-in-scouts-scathing-draft-take-cow-on-ice/

 

[Clayton]

That article is great.

“Darnold, he’s like a cow on ice,’’ Shonka said. “His footwork is all over the place. His feet in the pocket are embarrassing. When you turn the ball over [35 times] in 26 games, you’re intellectually dishonest when you’re talking about bringing in Sam Darnold as your next savior. This guy opens his hands over the ball, it just drops out when he’s in the pocket. If you look at his film, they talk about his accuracy. Actually it’s his receivers making great catches for him, laying out for the ball or going high. I’m not saying he’s never going to be a quarterback, but right now he’s a long way away.’’

Thats the same thing I see with Darnold but at the same time I don't think its a huge issue. Those seem like really easy to fix things.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Nothing they do will make the narrative look bad. Every single year, we hear about how amazing the QB play is in the Big 12 and how their QBs are all amazing, yet they have basically all fallen flat in the NFL. Sam Bradford is the greatest Big 12 QB, and he's a journeyman who has never even played in, let alone won, a playoff game. Hell, Tebow did that.

It's more than just the past couple years. This goes back decades. Would you believe the Big 12 has never produced a SB winning QB? In fact, I don't think they've ever even produced a QB that has started in a conference title game. If I'm wrong, tell me, but I'm pretty sure I'm not missing anyone.

Mayfield looked great, there's no question. Maybe he pans out. However, even if he does, he will be the exception. Mahomes is a total crapshoot at this point.

It's an ecological fallacy. You're exceeding the bounds of what being in the Big 12 tells you when you make the "Big 12 doesn't produce QB's argument." Then applying it to Big 12 QB's without respect to their individual talents and differences that sets them apart from other QB's that have come out of the conference. Graham Harrell is not a legit comparison for instance.

 

[Across The Field]

It's an ecological fallacy. You're exceeding the bounds of what being in the Big 12 tells you when you make the "Big 12 doesn't produce QB's argument." Then applying it to Big 12 QB's without respect to their individual talents and differences that sets them apart from other QB's that have come out of the conference. Graham Harrell is not a legit comparison for instance.

Great, but what did Graham Harrell do in college? Tore it up like crazy. Know how else did? Nearly every other Big 12 QB who has been drafted. Guys like Todd Reesing, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Daniel, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbart, among many others. They all put up amazing numbers in college and have done nothing in the NFL. Gabbart was supposed to be a can't miss guy, and Weeden was a consensus first/second rounder. They're both awful backups.

The precedent has been set over and over and over again. Maybe Mayfield will be a phenomenal pro. Who knows? At this point, it's far from a given.

 

[Clayton]

Great, but what did Graham Harrell do in college? Tore it up like crazy. Know how else did? Nearly every other Big 12 QB who has been drafted. Guys like Todd Reesing, Kliff Kingsbury, Chase Daniel, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbart, among many others. They all put up amazing numbers in college and have done nothing in the NFL. Gabbart was supposed to be a can't miss guy, and Weeden was a consensus first/second rounder. They're both awful backups.

The precedent has been set over and over and over again. Maybe Mayfield will be a phenomenal pro. Who knows? At this point, it's far from a given.

I'm having a really hard time not giving up a bullsh rating for calling Blaine Gabbert a can't miss guy.

 

[Across The Field]

I'm having a really hard time not giving up a bullsh rating for calling Blaine Gabbert a can't miss guy.

Haha, go back and look at the draft write-ups on him. He was a consensus top 10 overall prospect, top 5 according to several outlets. There were hardly any knocks on him, and the positives were overflowing.

 

[Clayton]

There haven't actually been that many highly rated Big 12 QBs. Just going on a guess but I'm only remembering 8 top flight prospects:

1. RG3
2. Baker Mayfield
3. Sam Bradford

4. Patrick Mahomes
5. Vince Young

6. Blaine Gabbert
7. Johnny Manziel
8. Brandon Weedon

Everyone with 2 eyeballs and some brain cells were picking apart Gabbert, Manziel and Weedon. Gabbert was seen as a massive project, Manziel was seen as a massive off the field risk and people were worried about his measurables and Weedon is already collecting social security.

I'm elevating Vince Young because of where he was drafted but I remember thinking his accuracy was terrible despite being a fantastic college player.

Haha, go back and look at the draft write-ups on him. He was a consensus top 10 overall prospect, top 5 according to several outlets. There were hardly any knocks on him, and the positives were overflowing.

I might be biased since I'm a Mizzou fan but literally the first things said about him watching the NFL Draft was 'Gabbert should be thankful he is going to Jacksonville. They have a starter in place so Gabbert should be able to sit for a year or two and learn the game' (Jacksonville then cut their starter weeks later). I think I had a 3rd round grade on him coming out but I did see all of his games. Gabbert I think was getting elevated because he was a pro prospect but Mizzou didn't have a pro system.

As a side note: Drew Lock is going to be running a pro system next year at Mizzou. I think Lock would've been about where Mason Rudolph is right now so its good that he came back. He still has more work to do before the NFL.

 

[shopson67]

False

Based on what? Jackson was impossibly more productive than Vick. Completion percentage and QB rating are both close enough to be a wash. Jackson has the edge in everything else. Passing y/a, rushing y/a, and the volume of passes/rushes vs Vick is overwhelming. He's not doing this in some defenseless conference either; they play in the ACC and in Petrino's system, which is typically a pocket-passer system, but was molded around Jackson.

 

[Across The Field]

There haven't actually been that many highly rated Big 12 QBs. Just going on a guess but I'm only remembering 8 top flight prospects:

1. RG3
2. Baker Mayfield
3. Sam Bradford

4. Patrick Mahomes
5. Vince Young

6. Blaine Gabbert
7. Johnny Manziel
8. Brandon Weedon

Everyone with 2 eyeballs and some brain cells were picking apart Gabbert, Manziel and Weedon. Gabbert was seen as a massive project, Manziel was seen as a massive off the field risk and people were worried about his measurables and Weedon is already collecting social security.

I'm elevating Vince Young because of where he was drafted but I remember thinking his accuracy was terrible despite being a fantastic college player.


I might be biased since I'm a Mizzou fan but literally the first things said about him watching the NFL Draft was 'Gabbert should be thankful he is going to Jacksonville. They have a starter in place so Gabbert should be able to sit for a year or two and learn the game' (Jacksonville then cut their starter weeks later). I think I had a 3rd round grade on him coming out but I did see all of his games. Gabbert I think was getting elevated because he was a pro prospect but Mizzou didn't have a pro system.

As a side note: Drew Lock is going to be running a pro system next year at Mizzou. I think Lock would've been about where Mason Rudolph is right now so its good that he came back. He still has more work to do before the NFL.

From ESPN:

What he brings: Gabbert has the frame, intangibles and arm strength teams look for. He is a tough leader who can play through pain and rally his teammates, and while he needs to improve his pocket mobility and ability to handle pressure he has the toughness and foot speed to do so. It's somewhat surprising he fell this far because he is the most accurate of the top three quarterbacks on our board, and he has the football acumen to make the transition from a college spread scheme to a pro-style offense.

SB Nation:

Final word: As a pocket passer, Gabbert is loaded with potential. The first noticeable thing about Gabbert is his size. He is 6-foot-5 and has an NFL frame at 235 pounds. His arm strength is at a top level, he gets great ball placement and his throwing motion is crisp and sound. Some of the bigger concerns about Gabbert – coming from a spread where he doesn't have to make many reads – are disconcerting but coachable. Because of that, Gabbert may be the kind of quarterback who is taken in round one but could be better served with a year as a backup.

These are what I went off of. Walterfootball had him as the 2nd best QB after Cam while noting that other NFL analysts said they'd take him first if they were Carolina's GM.

Maybe not fully "can't miss", but he was considered an elite prospect, moreso than you're even seeing this year from Baker IMO. He was definitely a higher rated prospect than Mahomes.

 

[Tharvot]

1. Darnold
2. Rosen
3. Allen
4. Mayfield - only behind Allen due to size and arm strength and projection. I think he's currently way better than Allen is.
5. Jackson