HOF Ballot Released

[MilkSpiller22]

But what statistics would we use to determine if someone is a clear cut HOFer? And I don't think the HOF wants players to take a year off, become eligible, be elected, and then go back to playing.

true, they wouldn't want a HOF playing again... But if that DID happen, would it really matter?? is it possible to lose your HOF status??

As to what statistics would be used, i am sure they can figure out a good formula... and before eye test people come in and say egg head numbers blah blah... clear HOFers who pass the eye test will also pass the stats test... that is just what happens...

But i would put players in groups...

Group 1. The longevity players.

Group 2. The Dominant primes

Group 3. The defensive studs


and have different measurements for each group... if a player is in multiple groups they get some sort of bonus...

 

[soxfan1468927]

true, they wouldn't want a HOF playing again... But if that DID happen, would it really matter?? is it possible to lose your HOF status??

As to what statistics would be used, i am sure they can figure out a good formula... and before eye test people come in and say egg head numbers blah blah... clear HOFers who pass the eye test will also pass the stats test... that is just what happens...

But i would put players in groups...

Group 1. The longevity players.

Group 2. The Dominant primes

Group 3. The defensive studs


and have different measurements for each group... if a player is in multiple groups they get some sort of bonus...

I don't know if that would really be a problem. I just don't think the HOF would want that and I think that is why they wait 5 years.

I guess you could do that, but coming up with a formula that would be agreed upon and the public would accept wouldn't be easy. The HOF is a museum that wants to look good in the public eye so they can make money. So they have to take that into account.

And thinking about it, if you did have a formula, I guess it wouldn't matter when a player was eligible. They could be playing, already reached one of the requirements, and be considered a HOFer. Maybe just have to wait a year to have their "induction" day.

 

[calsnowskier]

Okay so which of these guys are not HOFers

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Jack Morris
Alan Trammell
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina

IMHO, there are 6 no-doubters there...

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Thomas
Biggio
Piazza

With 4 that are on-the-fence, but would likely get my vote (and did, IIRC)...

Glavine
Bagwell
Raines
Trammell

I am very anti-Morris and Martinez, and luke-warm on Schilling and Mussina at best.

I glanced at some ballots from the 90s, and there were about 8 future HOFers on each of those ballots as well.

 

[soxfan1468927]

IMHO, there are 6 no-doubters there...

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Thomas
Biggio
Piazza

With 4 that are on-the-fence, but would likely get my vote (and did, IIRC)...

Glavine
Bagwell
Raines
Trammell

I am very anti-Morris and Martinez, and luke-warm on Schilling and Mussina at best.

I glanced at some ballots from the 90s, and there were about 8 future HOFers on each of those ballots as well.

Okay so your ballot is full with 2 more guys who you are "luke-warm" on.

I still don't see the problem as the hall being too inclusive.

 

[calsnowskier]

Okay so your ballot is full with 2 more guys who you are "luke-warm" on.

I still don't see the problem as the hall being too inclusive.

This years ballot, for example, is not THAT stacked, and IMHO, is only about 8 deep. But just about out every published ballot has 10 names on it.

There are many voters who I think would vote for as many players as they possibly could. If they were allowed to vote for 15, they would. The 10-Player limit adds structure and HELPS to keep the integrity of the honor. If you not one of the 10 best players of your era, do you really deserve to be in the Hall anyway?

 

[soxfan1468927]

This years ballot, for example, is not THAT stacked, and IMHO, is only about 8 deep. But just about out every published ballot has 10 names on it.

There are many voters who I think would vote for as many players as they possibly could. If they were allowed to vote for 15, they would. The 10-Player limit adds structure and HELPS to keep the integrity of the honor. If you not one of the 10 best players of your era, do you really deserve to be one n the Hall anyway?

I have said I think the problem is going to work itself out. Personally I think there are 11 or 12 players on the ballot worthy of induction. We wouldn't be having this discussion if the voters had already voted in the players I think they should have. I'm currently working on something, going throughout history (starting in 1967) to see how many players I would have voted for each year. I doubt it became a problem until the voters made it a problem.

But, I still don't find it necessary to upholding the integrity of the honor. We've had the limit for a while, and those players often get in anyway. There were 18 players in 1967 who were eventually inducted even with the 10 player limit. So all I think it does is cause guys to drop off the ballot who should have gotten more consideration. Or it causes voters to vote without integrity (like for someone they may not really think is worthy) just to try to keep someone on the ballot

 

[tducey]

Updated to last night:

BBHOF Tracker by Ryan Thibodaux.xlsm - Microsoft Excel Online

 

[soxfan1468927]

Only 10 ballots added the last week. 185 in the tracker. 8 days away from the announcement.

Chipper: 98.4%
Guerrero: 94.6%
Thome: 93.5%
Edgar: 81.1%
Hoffman: 78.4%


Mussina: 73.5%
Schilling: 66.5%
Bonds: 65.4%
Clemens: 65.4%
Walker: 39.5%
Vizquel: 30.3%
Manny: 24.3%
McGriff: 17.3%
Sosa: 12.4%
Rolen: 11.9%
Kent: 11.4%
Sheffield: 9.7%
Wagner: 9.7%
A. Jones: 5.4%


Damon: 1.6%
Santana: 1.6%
Moyer: 0.5%

Last year, a player needed 23 votes to stay on the ballot. This year it's likely they'll need 22 as there are slightly fewer voters this year. That would mean Rolen looks like he is safe and Kent needs 1 more vote.

It's not unheard of for a player to get little support early and then eventually get in via the BBWAA. Blyleven is a good example. He didn't crack 20% until his 4th year, and I think Rolen is a victim of the crowded ballot.

 

[tducey]

I think Vlad, Thome and Chipper are locks right now. Edgar and Hoffman have the #'s to make it right now but do they keep that up? Will be interesting. I'd like to see Mussina get in but that looks doubtful right now. We find out who makes it on Jan.24, next Wednesday.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I think Vlad, Thome and Chipper are locks right now. Edgar and Hoffman have the #'s to make it right now but do they keep that up? Will be interesting. I'd like to see Mussina get in but that looks doubtful right now. We find out who makes it on Jan.24, next Wednesday.

I think Hoffman is a lock now. Edgar I still say is doubtful. Just based on past voting and how much Hoffman has gained voters compared to Edgar.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Announcement tomorrow. 208 ballots in the tracker:

Chipper: 98.6%
Guerrero: 94.7%
Thome: 93.3%
Edgar: 78.8%
Hoffman: 76.9%


Mussina: 70.2%
Bonds: 64.4%
Clemens: 64.4%
Schilling: 63.5%
Walker: 40.4%
Vizquel: 30.8%
Manny: 24.0%
McGriff: 17.3%
Kent: 12.5%
Rolen: 12.0%
Sosa: 11.1%
Wagner: 10.6%
Sheffield: 9.6%
A. Jones: 6.3%


Damon: 1.4%
Santana: 1.4%
Moyer: 0.5%

I still believe that Chipper, Vlad, Thome, and Hoffman get in. Edgar just misses out but gets in next year.

 

[navamind]

yeah it's not looking too great for Edgar right now. Hopefully we're wrong.

 

[soxfan1468927]

yeah it's not looking too great for Edgar right now. Hopefully we're wrong.

Next year he'll get in. I'm pretty confident in that now. And I don't think any Veteran's Committee players get in next year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Next year he'll get in. I'm pretty confident in that now. And I don't think any Veteran's Committee players get in next year.

Do they even have the vets committee next year?

After letting Morris in, though, I wonder if those guys are all senile anyway...

 

[soxfan1468927]

Do they even have the vets committee next year?

After letting Morris in, though, I wonder if those guys are all senile anyway...

Yeah "Today's Game Era" meets again just like 2017. Steinbrenner might get in but I don't think anyone else. I'll be interested to see if McGwire is on the ballot again. Seems odd to just throw his name back out there when they just voted on him 2 years ago. Maybe the switch it up and have David Cone, who I was surprised wasn't on the ballot in 2017.

 

[tducey]

Today's the big day, folks. Think Vlad, Thome and Chipper get in. Along with 1 of Hoffman and Edgar. Can't see more than 4 getting in. Here's the latest tracker, updated to 12:40 PM EST:

BBHOF Tracker by Ryan Thibodaux.xlsm - Microsoft Excel Online

 

[soxfan1468927]

Today's the big day, folks. Think Vlad, Thome and Chipper get in. Along with 1 of Hoffman and Edgar. Can't see more than 4 getting in. Here's the latest tracker, updated to 12:40 PM EST:

BBHOF Tracker by Ryan Thibodaux.xlsm - Microsoft Excel Online

I think Hoffman is a lock and Edgar has barely a chance.

 

[StanMarsh51]

This years ballot, for example, is not THAT stacked, and IMHO, is only about 8 deep. But just about out every published ballot has 10 names on it.

There are many voters who I think would vote for as many players as they possibly could. If they were allowed to vote for 15, they would. The 10-Player limit adds structure and HELPS to keep the integrity of the honor. If you not one of the 10 best players of your era, do you really deserve to be in the Hall anyway?

In a league where there's something like 1,500 unique players in a given year? Yes

 

[calsnowskier]

In a league where there's something like 1,500 unique players in a given year? Yes

 

[StanMarsh51]

So if there are 3,000 unique players in a decade, you think being 11th best isn't HOF worthy because you chose an arbitrary number that they have to be top 10?