Giants land Angel Pagan

[Heathbar012]

Well, in a vacuum, sure. But HOW MUCH of an overpay, and what are the "other choices" you are considering. Would they also be overpays?

What if Swish is 3/36 and Pagan is 4/60? Do you want to commit big bucks to a guy in his mid 30s who relies on his legs to produce value?

This is also the Bourne Dilemma.

If I'm going to give a multiyear deal to a guy into his mid 30s, I'd rather bet on batting savvy and OBP than defense and speed.

But, in a vacuum, it's a close call.

True. I was under the impression that any overpay for Swish would be above the one for Oxy due to his power numbers (that would greatly decrease in The City). With those hypothetical contracts, I wouldn't like either situation, but would err on the side of the player that can play the best defense (and is capable of playing CF). Pagan still ends up being worth it. Ironically, I look at it much like the Beltran trade. I won't like it, but I'll understand the necessity. Sad, too, because I hoped Swish would resurrect his career as a Giant a few years ago. Unfortunately, he did it in the media center of the universe and a postage stamp of a ballpark.

 

[tzill]

If you sign Nick Swisher you will all hate him by June. And you will be looking to lynch him in the playoffs. He's garbage, you don't want him.

Ahhh, a bit of East Coast hyperbole. Gotta love the passion (if not the logic).

Nick will hit something like this:

275/365/480 20 HR; 85 RBI; 35 2b; 80 BB. All adding up to about 3.0 WAR.

Hardly garbage.

 

[tzill]

True. I was under the impression that any overpay for Swish would be above the one for Oxy due to his power numbers (that would greatly decrease in The City). With those hypothetical contracts, I wouldn't like either situation, but would err on the side of the player that can play the best defense (and is capable of playing CF). Pagan still ends up being worth it. Ironically, I look at it much like the Beltran trade. I won't like it, but I'll understand the necessity. Sad, too, because I hoped Swish would resurrect his career as a Giant a few years ago. Unfortunately, he did it in the media center of the universe and a postage stamp of a ballpark.

Maybe in 2013 and perhaps 2014, but certainly not in 2015 and 2016, where he'll be moved to a corner OF spot.

I'd be happy with Oxy back, but not at $15MM per for four years. 3/30? yes. He's going to decline and rapidly as he gets into his mid 30s.

Or, at least, that' the way to bet.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

Ahhh, a bit of East Coast hyperbole. Gotta love the passion (if not the logic).

Nick will hit something like this:

275/365/480 20 HR; 85 RBI; 35 2b; 80 BB. All adding up to about 3.0 WAR.

Hardly garbage.

Garbage was exaggerating but keep in mind his stats are inflated due to playing in Yankee Stadium the past few years. He's never really hit for average and his power numbers wil decrease drastically if he goes to San Fran. On top of that he made a terrible habit of stranding runners in scoring position and has been pretty horrific in the playoffs. You guys don't want him, trust me.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Garbage was exaggerating but keep in mind his stats are inflated due to playing in Yankee Stadium the past few years. He's never really hit for average and his power numbers wil decrease drastically if he goes to San Fran. On top of that he made a terrible habit of stranding runners in scoring position and has been pretty horrific in the playoffs. You guys don't want him, trust me.

I tend to agree. His numbers will collapse in our park, he's a bad defender, and he has no speed whatsoever. He strikes out a lot. If there was ever a player made NOT to be a Giant, it is Nick Swisher.

[Although, in his defense, he did hit .301 with a .995 OPS with RISP in 2012.]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=swishni01&year=&t=b

My hope is that our "interest" in Swisher is to keep the offer to Pagan down. I would much, MUCH rather have Pagan. I hope 3/36 does it - that should fit our budget. Maybe a fourth year buyout at $4 mill, club option. I understand he had a career year, and I pray that he and Melky didn't have the same trainer. But maybe he had a career year because he is perfect for our park and for our team.

 

[filosofy29]

I tend to agree. His numbers will collapse in our park, he's a bad defender, and he has no speed whatsoever. He strikes out a lot. If there was ever a player made NOT to be a Giant, it is Nick Swisher.

My hope is that our "interest" in Swisher is to keep the offer to Pagan down. I would much, MUCH rather have Pagan. I hope 3/36 does it - that should fit our budget. Maybe a fourth year buyout at $4 mill, club option. I understand he had a career year, and I pray that he and Melky didn't have the same trainer. But maybe he had a career year because he is perfect for our park and for our team.

I think Pagan had a career year because it was his last big chance to cash in.

 

[calsnowskier]

I tend to agree. His numbers will collapse in our park, he's a bad defender, and he has no speed whatsoever. He strikes out a lot. If there was ever a player made NOT to be a Giant, it is Nick Swisher.

My hope is that our "interest" in Swisher is to keep the offer to Pagan down. I would much, MUCH rather have Pagan. I hope 3/36 does it - that should fit our budget. Maybe a fourth year buyout at $4 mill, club option. I understand he had a career year, and I pray that he and Melky didn't have the same trainer. But maybe he had a career year because he is perfect for our park and for our team.

If we sign him @ 3/36, than I have no idea what the logic was in not offering the qualifying offer.

Is it possible they did not want the bonus draft pick? I have a hard time thinking this, but if Pagan's market is in the 10-12M per year on a multi year, than there really was no reason not to offer the QO.

 

[Mays-Fan]

If we sign him @ 3/36, than I have no idea what the logic was in not offering the qualifying offer.

Is it possible they did not want the bonus draft pick? I have a hard time thinking this, but if Pagan's market is in the 10-12M per year on a multi year, than there really was no reason not to offer the QO.

I confess complete ignorance of the implications and ramifications of the QO.

 

[tzill]

Garbage was exaggerating but keep in mind his stats are inflated due to playing in Yankee Stadium the past few years. He's never really hit for average and his power numbers wil decrease drastically if he goes to San Fran. On top of that he made a terrible habit of stranding runners in scoring position and has been pretty horrific in the playoffs. You guys don't want him, trust me.

Hitting with RISP is flukey and I wouldn't put much stock in that. Same with hitting in the post season. There's a guy on the HOF ballot this year for the first time who was crappy in the playoffs...until he wasn't.

If the price is right, I want him. His OPS+ (park adjusted) for the last four years is: 122, 129, 120, 126. That's pretty damn good. He's a borderline allstar.

 

[tzill]

I tend to agree. His numbers will collapse in our park, he's a bad defender, and he has no speed whatsoever. He strikes out a lot. If there was ever a player made NOT to be a Giant, it is Nick Swisher.

[Although, in his defense, he did hit .301 with a .995 OPS with RISP in 2012.]

Nick Swisher 2012 Batting Splits - Baseball-Reference.com

My hope is that our "interest" in Swisher is to keep the offer to Pagan down. I would much, MUCH rather have Pagan. I hope 3/36 does it - that should fit our budget. Maybe a fourth year buyout at $4 mill, club option. I understand he had a career year, and I pray that he and Melky didn't have the same trainer. But maybe he had a career year because he is perfect for our park and for our team.

His power won't "collapse" his OPS+ is consistently in the 120's. His HRs will decline, but likely his 2bs (and at AT&T his 3bs) will increase. He's not a poor defender, as his dWAR the last four years are: -1.5, -0.8, -1.4, -.4, or just below average. In LF, he wouldn't be a huge liability. Now, we couldn't have three Swishers out there, but with Blanco/Hairston in CF and Pence in RF we'd be OK. We can agree that his speed is lacking, but he wouldn't be asked to steal many bases hitting in the five hole. He does K a lot, but he also walks a ton, and his OBP is very good (career .361). He's not ideal, but at 3/36 I'd be pretty interested.

All that said, I'd rather have Oxy. But not at $15MM per.

 

[tzill]

If we sign him @ 3/36, than I have no idea what the logic was in not offering the qualifying offer.

Is it possible they did not want the bonus draft pick? I have a hard time thinking this, but if Pagan's market is in the 10-12M per year on a multi year, than there really was no reason not to offer the QO.

We went over it at the time -- I'm still confused. Maybe they believe he's going to get 3/30.

 

[tzill]

I confess complete ignorance of the implications and ramifications of the QO.

If you offer a player in the last year of his contract a QO (this year, about $13MM for one year) then one of three things happen:

1. He accepts the QO and you've got him for a year. Pagan would not have taken the QO.
2. He rejects and signs with another team. Giants receive a "sandwich" pick (between the first and second rounds) in the 2013 draft. Acquiring team loses it's first round (if not in the top ten) or second round pick.
3. He rejects and the Giants sign him to another deal. No pick, but we have him for 3-4 years.

There is a theory that by not making the QO, the Giants were in effect saying "Hey, Angel, we're doing you a solid here and letting you seek true market value since any potential suitor won't have to give up a draft pick to sign you." In exchange, so the thinking goes, Oxy would be more likely to want to stay here.

 

[MarcoPolo]

{...}
I understand he had a career year, and I pray that he and Melky didn't have the same trainer. But maybe he had a career year because he is perfect for our park and for our team.

I think Pagan had a career year because it was his last big chance to cash in.

I remember Pagan's first press presentation, just after visiting AT&T as a newly signed Giant, where he said (paraphrasing) : "with this outfield, I see myself hitting a lot of doubles and triples this year - I love it, this park is made for me." I really loved hearing that because :
(1) I'm tired of hearing players whine that they won't hit as many HRs
(2) It's what I've been saying for the past 10 years. It's my belief that Ed-gordo Alfatso ( Edgardo Alfonzo) would have had a much better career had he not tried to pull every pitch for a HR, and instead tried going with the pitch and hit into the alleys and down the RF line. His line-drive swing would have given him over 50 doubles every year, even though he was a fat slob who couldn't run.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Oops, re-reading, I probably should have specified "Edgardo Alfonzo would have had a much better career" as a Giant ...

(just in case it wasn't obvious enough)

 

[Stokes1931]

Report: Phillies offer four-year deal to Pagan

 

[Mays-Fan]

If you offer a player in the last year of his contract a QO (this year, about $13MM for one year) then one of three things happen:

1. He accepts the QO and you've got him for a year. Pagan would not have taken the QO.
2. He rejects and signs with another team. Giants receive a "sandwich" pick (between the first and second rounds) in the 2013 draft. Acquiring team loses it's first round (if not in the top ten) or second round pick.
3. He rejects and the Giants sign him to another deal. No pick, but we have him for 3-4 years.

There is a theory that by not making the QO, the Giants were in effect saying "Hey, Angel, we're doing you a solid here and letting you seek true market value since any potential suitor won't have to give up a draft pick to sign you." In exchange, so the thinking goes, Oxy would be more likely to want to stay here.

Thank you for this well-organized explanation.

I was hoping we would make the first move here on someone. The Phil Zone's offer raises my anxiety level.

Given the circumstances, in the big picture, my order of preference is:

Pagan
SV
The Swish

Better one than none. I'd still like to see us grab Nate as leverage/insurance.

 

[calsnowskier]

I would be flat SHOCKED if Nate were to come back to the G's this year. The org was put-off by his comments post trade and he fealt he was mis-handled by the org.

I would say there is about a 2% chance he is in the Gians org next year. And I think I giving it a better chance than actuality.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I would be flat SHOCKED if Nate were to come back to the G's this year. The org was put-off by his comments post trade and he fealt he was mis-handled by the org.

I would say there is about a 2% chance he is in the Gians org next year. And I think I giving it a better chance than actuality.

You are likely correct.

However, I have faith in the human capacity for forgiveness. And even more in the capacity for greed.

 

[gp956]

You are likely correct.

However, I have faith in the human capacity for forgiveness. And even more in the capacity for greed.

Bochy made it clear to Nate that he's a backup player. I don't think Nate feels like he's ever had a good shot to show he can be more than that. Most likely he'll go to a second division team who will give him some rope as a starter.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Nate could also re-sign with the Phillies. I think it depends if anybody *does* offer him a (chance at a) starting job. The Phillies didn't want to give him a raise from the $1.3M he earned last year (which he likely would have gotten in arb), but that doesn't mean they wouldn't want him back at $750K.

And they could dangle the "earn the starting job" in front of him (all of last seasons starting OFs are gone, and neither Domonic Brown nor Laynce Bix seem much better than Nate).