Giants land Angel Pagan

[filosofy29]

The QO means he would paid the average of the top 125 (?) players in the bigs for 1 year if he accepted. That would assure that the Giants get compensation if he signed elsewhere, and the signing team would lose their first pick.

The loss of the pick for the signing team would theoretically drop his market value, so it would cost him money.

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I understand the two parts above. I was just wondering if the Giants had made the QO to Pagan, that they had to stay close to that QO # in the first year of the contract.

I do agree with you that there was probably some sort of gentleman's agreement on both parties sides though. I thought I read (speculation of course) that Pagan had somewhere close to a 4 year $48M deal on the table with the Phils.

 

[gp956]

KNBR is reporting it as well. I can't say I'm bummed, I was starting to think that (were I the Giants FO) I would probably bite the bullet and pay him $36M for 3 years, so I can't be that upset for a 4th year at $4M (in my hypothetical). At the very least, this lets Gary Brown develop at the right speed and Pagan can always become a LF'er if Gary Brown progresses like we hope he will. I think Pagan's skill set matches our park nicely and he seemed to be good in the clubhouse. Now don't become Aangel Rowgan.

Got my fingers crossed already.

 

[tzill]

How does that work tz? If they had tendered him, he'd at least have to make the $12-$13M he would have been slated to make? Also, the signing bonus gets him close to that "would have been" number right?

Sorry, I know you, gp and Marco (and others I'm sure that I'm forgetting) all explain this stuff all the time, I'm just lazy and you 3 are smarter than me.

If we had tendered him, it would have been a $13.5 deal for one year. The Gs must have figured Oxy would accept and we'd be stuck with a large overpay. Thus, they non-tendered him and signed him at market price.

As for the signing bonus, he gets it now, so his 2012 cost is $12MM.

 

[gp956]

$7mm for 2013. I guess that explains the non-tender.

Not sure I understand your point. There is a 5M bonus - so on the Giants books, who claim to operate on a "cash" basis, it's 12M in 2013.

 

[tzill]

How does that work tz? If they had tendered him, he'd at least have to make the $12-$13M he would have been slated to make? Also, the signing bonus gets him close to that "would have been" number right?

Sorry, I know you, gp and Marco (and others I'm sure that I'm forgetting) all explain this stuff all the time, I'm just lazy and you 3 are smarter than me.

I would guess (purely from my assal region) that there was a gentlemanly agreement that Oxy would test the market and once he found a deal he liked, the giants would have the right the make a counter offer with a home-team discount factored in. The home-town discount was purchased with the non-QO.

I doubt it was that complicated. They declined to make the QO b/c they didn't want to be on the hook for $13.5 if Oxy had accepted.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Not sure I understand your point. There is a 5M bonus - so on the Giants books, who claim to operate on a "cash" basis, it's 12M in 2013.

In some circles, for budgetary purposes, bonuses are pro-rated over the life of the contract. In that case, it's $8.25 mill in 2013.

 

[gp956]

I doubt it was that complicated. They declined to make the QO b/c they didn't want to be on the hook for $13.5 if Oxy had accepted.

So to save 1.3M in 2013, they'd rather be on the hook for 27M more over 3 additional years?

 

[tzill]

Not sure I understand your point. There is a 5M bonus - so on the Giants books, who claim to operate on a "cash" basis, it's 12M in 2013.

Depends on how they account for it. Likely spread out at $1.25 MMper year.

 

[calsnowskier]

I doubt it was that complicated. They declined to make the QO b/c they didn't want to be on the hook for $13.5 if Oxy had accepted.

If the reports are true, though, he had a 4/48 from Philly, so we got a 20% home-town discount. Hard to fathom that without a deal in place beforehand.

 

[gp956]

In some circles, for budgetary purposes, bonuses are pro-rated over the life of the contract. In that case, it's $8.25 mill in 2013.

Paying 5M now is the driving economic factor here. Prorating it is meaningless, since you'd have to actually engage in positively discounting the opportunity cost of the 5M going forward.

 

[tzill]

So to save 1.3M in 2013, they'd rather be on the hook for 27M more over 3 additional years?

You're ignoring the value of having him under team control, at a pretty reasonable price, for three more years.

 

[gp956]

Depends on how they account for it. Likely spread out at $1.25 MMper year.

Sorry, that's irrelevant.

 

[gp956]

You're ignoring the value of having him under team control, at a pretty reasonable price, for three more years.

Really? What was the value of having Zito under team control for 7 years? Bottom line, if the Giants were willing to go four years, they weren't afraid of Pagan taking the QO. At least, that's the way it looks to me.

 

[tzill]

If the reports are true, though, he had a 4/48 from Philly, so we got a 20% home-town discount. Hard to fathom that without a deal in place beforehand.

Link?

I hadn't read this

 

[tzill]

Really? What was the value of having Zito under team control for 7 years? Bottom line, if the Giants were willing to go four years, they weren't afraid of Pagan taking the QO. At least, that's the way it looks to me.

Look, my premise all along has been that this is baffling. That said, I can see a line of reasoning wherein they don't want to risk paying $13.5 for Oxy (which is more than he's worth) and have to do the same thing all over next year if he accepts. The fact that he signed for 4/40 seems to indicate SabeySabes had a good handle on the market.

 

[calsnowskier]

Link?

I hadn't read this

I saw it somewhere... May have been here. I will see if I can find it again...

 

[gp956]

Look, my premise all along has been that this is baffling. That said, I can see a line of reasoning wherein they don't want to risk paying $13.5 for Oxy (which is more than he's worth) and have to do the same thing all over next year if he accepts. The fact that he signed for 4/40 seems to indicate SabeySabes had a good handle on the market.

I think you'd have much more of a case if he had signed for 3/27. The fact that he was trying to squeeze a fifth year out of the Phillies, tells me the likelihood of him taking the QO was small. And if that's the case, what does that say about Sabean's read on the market under your scenario?

 

[tzill]

I think you'd have much more of a case if he had signed for 3/27. The fact that he was trying to squeeze a fifth year out of the Phillies, tells me the likelihood of him taking the QO was small. And if that's the case, what does that say about Sabean's read on the market under your scenario?

Fair points; I didn't know he was trying for five years. I expected a week ago for him to get 4/50, which would have meant SS blew it. That he got him for 10/year is a good read wrt the QO.

 

[filosofy29]

Link?

I hadn't read this

I saw it somewhere... May have been here. I will see if I can find it again...

It was just speculation by pundits on MLBTradeRumors, nothing concrete. (As far as what I saw)

 

[calsnowskier]

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I understand the two parts above. I was just wondering if the Giants had made the QO to Pagan, that they had to stay close to that QO # in the first year of the contract.

I do agree with you that there was probably some sort of gentleman's agreement on both parties sides though. I thought I read (speculation of course) that Pagan had somewhere close to a 4 year $48M deal on the table with the Phils.

It was just speculation by pundits on MLBTradeRumors, nothing concrete. (As far as what I saw)

Dang you, Filo!

Se what kind of trouble I get in when I listen to you...