Giants General Thoughts

[calsnowskier]

Kind of a facile analysis. First, it looks at W-L and ERA, two metrics that are not very helpful. I think you have to look at FIP and ERA+ to begin. I don't agree that Rodon "isn't worth a 7 figure contract." I think he is, for a few reasons.
1. He's a top 10 NL pitcher and ace
2. He generates a LOT of swing and misses
3. He's generally healthy
4. He's a red ass and can fire up a clubhouse

I think if you bring him back at market rate, you have: Webb/Rodon/Cobb/Disco/Wood/Harrison/Hjelle/Liberatore/Junis

I think you start with the SP and build a team from there, but I am biased toward pitching.

And how in the hell do you figure we are getting Lideratore?

 

[LHG]

Kind of a facile analysis. First, it looks at W-L and ERA, two metrics that are not very helpful. I think you have to look at FIP and ERA+ to begin. I don't agree that Rodon "isn't worth a 7 figure contract." I think he is, for a few reasons.
1. He's a top 10 NL pitcher and ace
2. He generates a LOT of swing and misses
3. He's generally healthy
4. He's a red ass and can fire up a clubhouse

I think if you bring him back at market rate, you have: Webb/Rodon/Cobb/Disco/Wood/Harrison/Hjelle/Liberatore/Junis

I think you start with the SP and build a team from there, but I am biased toward pitching.

Liberatore? Was there some transaction that I'm not aware of?

 

[LHG]

Tall task, but I would be very interested in seeing the results.

This is just raw data and doesn't account for any players (such as Alex Young) who were dfa'd by their previous teams and acquired by trade. This only takes into account who have been claimed through waivers and/or put on waivers by the Giants since FZ look over on November 4th, 2018.

 

[LHG]

This is just raw data and doesn't account for any players (such as Alex Young) who were dfa'd by their previous teams and acquired by trade. This only takes into account who have been claimed through waivers and/or put on waivers by the Giants since FZ look over on November 4th, 2018.

To give some statistical review, there are 122 players on the attached list. Of those 122, 51 of those players were claimed off waivers from other teams (but some more were acquired via trade after the previous team dfa'd them). Of those 51, 32 were subsequently passed through waivers. Only 15 were successfully stashed beyond the waiver period.
These 15 are:
Mike Gerber, of - early 2019
John Andreoli, of - early 2019
Kyle Barraclough, p - mid 2019
Keon Wong, 2nd - mid 2020
Trevor Oaks, p - early 2020
Jake Jewell, p - mid 2020
Jose Siri, of - mid 2020
Braden Bishop, of - early 2021
Trevor Hildenberger, p - mid 2021
Jake Jewell, p - late 2021
Austin Dean, of - early 2022
Angel Rondon, p - mid 2022
Steele Walker, of - mid 2022

So how did they play out?
Gerber - he was eventually purchased toward the end of the 2019 season, only to get dfa'd again that following offseason. Possibly seen as a success in that he served some time in the outfield for 2019.
Andreoli - He was traded to the Twins less than 2 months into being stashed away. Michael Reed was the return. He did play in a couple of games with the Giants before also being dfa'd and then sticking with the org the rest of 2019 in AAA. Not sure I'd call that a sucess but the replacement at least stayed with the org for a full season.
Barraclough - He also got purchased toward the end of the 2019 season and pitched in a few games. He also got dfa'd that offseason. Another possible success.
Wong - He actually lasted on the 40 man roster for most of the 2020 season but never saw time with the big league club. He got outrighted at the end of July, only to leave via free agency after 2020
Oaks - He was dfa'd in spring training 2020 and was part of the org but never pitched with the big league club (I think he was part of the ATS group though). He got released after the 2020 season
Jewell - This is Jewell, part one. He also was dfa'd early in 2020 and was allowed to walk after the season.
Siri - He also lasted most of the 2020 on the 40 man roster, but not make the big league squad, only to get dfa'd at the end of July. He walked after the season.
Bishop - Another outfielder who was passed through waiver, this one for 2021, and kept in the org throughout the season. He did not make the big league team and was a minor league free agent after 2021.
Hildenberger - He was claimed and quickly outrighted in May 2021. He is still with the org in 2022 but hasn't played with the big league team.
Jewell - Jewell, part 2 is really weird. He was claimed Sept. 7, 2021 and outrighted on Sept. 11th. He walked as a minor league free agent on Oct. 15th, 2021.
Dean - Seems like every year the Giants pass an outfielder through waivers in spring training and keep him the whole season but not use him in the big leagues. Dean, so far, has filled that role to a T.
Rondon - He is one of the reasons the churn seems pointless to me. He was claimed on July 13th, 2022, dfa'd on July 26th and outrighted on August 2nd. Okay, so another guy successfully stashed. Oh wait, he has already been released you say? It happened on August 9th, less than a week after successfully keeping him? What's the point?
Walker - Most recent stash. I am going to predict that he leaves as a minor league free agent this offseason, without appearing with the big league club.

Summary:
2019 - 3 players successfully stashed. 2 of them played with the big league club that year and the 3rd was traded for a guy who briefly played with the big league club.
2020 - 4 players stashed, None played with the big league club.
2021 - 3 players stashed. None played with the big league club.
2022 - 3 players stashed. None played, so far, with the big league club.

I'd say the churn is unnecessary.

 

[calsnowskier]

To give some statistical review, there are 122 players on the attached list. Of those 122, 51 of those players were claimed off waivers from other teams (but some more were acquired via trade after the previous team dfa'd them). Of those 51, 32 were subsequently passed through waivers. Only 15 were successfully stashed beyond the waiver period.
These 15 are:
Mike Gerber, of - early 2019
John Andreoli, of - early 2019
Kyle Barraclough, p - mid 2019
Keon Wong, 2nd - mid 2020
Trevor Oaks, p - early 2020
Jake Jewell, p - mid 2020
Jose Siri, of - mid 2020
Braden Bishop, of - early 2021
Trevor Hildenberger, p - mid 2021
Jake Jewell, p - late 2021
Austin Dean, of - early 2022
Angel Rondon, p - mid 2022
Steele Walker, of - mid 2022

So how did they play out?
Gerber - he was eventually purchased toward the end of the 2019 season, only to get dfa'd again that following offseason. Possibly seen as a success in that he served some time in the outfield for 2019.
Andreoli - He was traded to the Twins less than 2 months into being stashed away. Michael Reed was the return. He did play in a couple of games with the Giants before also being dfa'd and then sticking with the org the rest of 2019 in AAA. Not sure I'd call that a sucess but the replacement at least stayed with the org for a full season.
Barraclough - He also got purchased toward the end of the 2019 season and pitched in a few games. He also got dfa'd that offseason. Another possible success.
Wong - He actually lasted on the 40 man roster for most of the 2020 season but never saw time with the big league club. He got outrighted at the end of July, only to leave via free agency after 2020
Oaks - He was dfa'd in spring training 2020 and was part of the org but never pitched with the big league club (I think he was part of the ATS group though). He got released after the 2020 season
Jewell - This is Jewell, part one. He also was dfa'd early in 2020 and was allowed to walk after the season.
Siri - He also lasted most of the 2020 on the 40 man roster, but not make the big league squad, only to get dfa'd at the end of July. He walked after the season.
Bishop - Another outfielder who was passed through waiver, this one for 2021, and kept in the org throughout the season. He did not make the big league team and was a minor league free agent after 2021.
Hildenberger - He was claimed and quickly outrighted in May 2021. He is still with the org in 2022 but hasn't played with the big league team.
Jewell - Jewell, part 2 is really weird. He was claimed Sept. 7, 2021 and outrighted on Sept. 11th. He walked as a minor league free agent on Oct. 15th, 2021.
Dean - Seems like every year the Giants pass an outfielder through waivers in spring training and keep him the whole season but not use him in the big leagues. Dean, so far, has filled that role to a T.
Rondon - He is one of the reasons the churn seems pointless to me. He was claimed on July 13th, 2022, dfa'd on July 26th and outrighted on August 2nd. Okay, so another guy successfully stashed. Oh wait, he has already been released you say? It happened on August 9th, less than a week after successfully keeping him? What's the point?
Walker - Most recent stash. I am going to predict that he leaves as a minor league free agent this offseason, without appearing with the big league club.

Summary:
2019 - 3 players successfully stashed. 2 of them played with the big league club that year and the 3rd was traded for a guy who briefly played with the big league club.
2020 - 4 players stashed, None played with the big league club.
2021 - 3 players stashed. None played with the big league club.
2022 - 3 players stashed. None played, so far, with the big league club.

I'd say the churn is unnecessary.

It is noise. And ultimately, bad for the player getting churned.

 

[pachyderm]

Please let us win two more so we can't lose 100 games...

 

[tzill]

Krukow has become too much of an Orange-tinted glasses wearing homer the last few years, I don’t trust/believe anything he says in regards to that sort of thing.

Fine. I'm not saying you should. I'm just putting the info out there.

 

[tzill]

And how in the hell do you figure we are getting Lideratore?

my bad. misread something.

 

[LHG]

It is noise. And ultimately, bad for the player getting churned.

You can look at it like this, here is the contributions at the big league level the churn has provided:

Offense - .042/.115/.083 (26 PAs); -0.5 WAR
Pitching - 1.75 WHIP, 2.25 ERA (10 games, 8 IP); 0.2 WAR

Now what I haven't done is go back to big league contributions from players who made big league appearances and then got churned out. That would include players like Connor Joe, Burch Smith and Skye Bolt. Not exactly elite numbers, but lets include all those players (for the sake of this exercise, I will exclude Rule 5 draft picks. Even though they show up on the transactions page as waiver claims, on both sides of the draft, they are essentially different and will not count in my review, which puts the total number of waiver claims to 47):

Offense (Gerber, Joe, Altherr, Joseph, Bolt, Ford, Rickard, Mercedes) - .188/.259/.263 in 92 total games; -0.9 WAR
Pitching (Barraclough, Smith, Quintana, Peralta, Anderson, Garcia, Littell) - 3.25 ERA, 1.247 WHIP in 290 games, 13 starts; 3.9 WAR

The argument for the churn could be that it landed two pitchers who've had a sizeable impact on the bullpen - Zach Littell and, especially, Jarlin Garcia. If you take their numbers away from the pitchers on this list, the ERA goes up to 3.98, the WHIP to 1.486 and the WAR goes down to 1.0. That includes 11 starts (and 2 relief appearances) from Tyler Anderson in 2020.

However, I would say that Garcia and Littell are clearly outliers. Both were obviously good moves at the time of their claims. The fact that either were put on waivers by their previous clubs were a bit baffling. All they show is that there can be selective claims, not at will shots at what feels like every guy that comes through waivers.

 

[pachyderm]

 

[tzill]

Pipe DOWN Pachy!!

 

[tzill]

The fact that the AAA season runs through the end of September, I'd guess that we won't see extended looks at Heliot Ramos or Sean Hjelle barring an injury. It would be great to see what Randy Rodriguez can offer and feels like he's a candidate

 

[tzill]

On Cole Waites, it feels like he could be an option as well. He is R5 eligible in December, so it doesn't hurt to add him now if that is what they are planning to do anyway. To create room on the 40-man, most injuries can be transferred to the 60-day IL at this point.

 

[LHG]

On Cole Waites, it feels like he could be an option as well. He is R5 eligible in December, so it doesn't hurt to add him now if that is what they are planning to do anyway. To create room on the 40-man, most injuries can be transferred to the 60-day IL at this point.

Only player currently on the IL, who is not already on the 60 day IL, is Brandon Belt. However, I could see that as a possibility if they feel his season is truly over.

Concurrently, of those already on the 60 day IL, I think Llovera is the only possibility to be activated this season. Its weird to talk about roster expansion and realize that no one from the IL are realistic adds on September 1st.

 

[calsnowskier]

Only player currently on the IL, who is not already on the 60 day IL, is Brandon Belt. However, I could see that as a possibility if they feel his season is truly over.

Concurrently, of those already on the 60 day IL, I think Llovera is the only possibility to be activated this season. Its weird to talk about roster expansion and realize that no one from the IL are realistic adds on September 1st.

I think they will do everything they can to allow Belt to come back this season. I think it would be nice to allow him to go out on the field. Even if just to send him out to first, them sub him out.

 

[calsnowskier]

Belt just got a second opinion on his knee, and apparently the doc recommended surgery. If belt wants to continue his career, he probably goes under. If he is done, I can see a scenario where he makes one more appearance in SF, then “retires” mid game (not really retiring, so he still gets paid, but essentially retires).

The Giants expect a decision by Belt within the next 24 hours.

 

[LHG]

Belt just got a second opinion on his knee, and apparently the doc recommended surgery. If belt wants to continue his career, he probably goes under. If he is done, I can see a scenario where he makes one more appearance in SF, then “retires” mid game (not really retiring, so he still gets paid, but essentially retires).

The Giants expect a decision by Belt within the next 24 hours.

I've wonder, for most of this season, if he would retire after 2022. Looks like he's got a decision to make. All the injuries have to play a part in his decision.

 

[tzill]

Brandon Belt received his second opinion from Dr. Timothy McAdams and surgery was recommended. Belt is expected to decide within 24 hours.

 

[calsnowskier]

Brandon Belt received his second opinion from Dr. Timothy McAdams and surgery was recommended. Belt is expected to decide within 24 hours.

Thanks for the update.

 

[LHG]

Since no one has posted about this yet . . .

Brandon Belt Considering Undergoing Knee Surgery

Giants first baseman Brandon Belt has been bothered by a right knee issue of late, and doctors have recommended he undergo …

www.mlbtraderumors.com