Future Cap Planning - Trades and Releases 2015

[TrustMeIamRight]

I don't think there are many, if any, fans that are ok with giving Suh the type of money being guesstimated. But something has to and will be done. He's either gonna get the money he's alledgedly(by the board) asking for, he'll get what the Lions deem necessary, or he'll get traded. I don't see him playing out his current contract.

I just think it's wise to start getting ready to deal with one of these options, even if it's not one you agree with.

Nothing worse than type out a short novel as a response and then right when you go to hit post -- Google Chrome crashes and it gets wiped out.

Oh well -- I'll make this one short and sweet.

Suh is a FA after this year -- he has been paid the overwhelming majority of his contract already and playing out 2015 would be pointless for him. I really hope I'm wrong, but I believe I read somewhere that Detroit is still on the hook for almost a 10 million dollar cap hit on Suh, even if he opts out and signs elsewhere.

I think this draft will predicate what the Lions plans for Suh are -- I think one of two things happen:

1. If they are signing Suh to a monster extension -- They should draft defense early and often to surround him with as much cheap talent as they can, preferably in the back 7.

2. If they don't think they can sign him -- Pray that they can find a team in the 1st round with 12 million in cap space and Suh is willing to sign an extension with. Take a 1st round pick for Suh, because losing him for a 3rd round comp pick would be criminal. Then trade up and draft Watkins and simply try to outscore everyone. Use the other 1st round pick to draft a DT to fill in for Suh and use any picks left on defense and hope to hit on a couple. Then use the cap space made available by losing Suh to try and replace him with multiple players in FA.

 

[lionstop1]

I also think it's the board that has decided that he's seeking to become the highest paid defender in the league. I haven't heard anything about those specific figures from anyone actually involved (Suh's camp, or the Lions office), so right now it's just a rumor that has been latched on to and seems to be the accepted truth around here.

I think he does deserve just a bit more than Geno Atkins got so he can be the highest paid at his position.

Let's remember going forward that all this talk about him demanding to be the highest paid defensive player in the league is purely speculation at this time...


I know it's all speculation on our part, but I honestly can't see a situation where he wouldn't be commanding at least something close to the highest paid defender. There has to be some type of increase demanded after the contract he already got as a rookie. Plus, him and his agent are well aware of what CJ got and what the other defenders will get in the future.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I know it's all speculation on our part, but I honestly can't see a situation where he wouldn't be commanding at least something close to the highest paid defender. There has to be some type of increase demanded after the contract he already got as a rookie. Plus, him and his agent are well aware of what CJ got and what the other defenders will get in the future.

Why? I can't figure out this line of thinking- he was already the highest paid DT in the league. He doesn't deserve a raise for the sake of a raise, imo. He deserves to be the highest paid at his position. 99% of the time guys get a raise with their second contract in this situation, but he had a very unique rookie deal. He should be looking more at a five year extension than he should a big raise...

 

[Naughtymax]

It's more of a life motto than a riddle. When situations in life arise, you gotta ask yourself, "What would Johnny do? ".

Yeah, Daniel-san would never have gotten a chick as hot as Elizabeth Shue. Maybe the motto should be, "WHO would Johnny do?"

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Why? I can't figure out this line of thinking- he was already the highest paid DT in the league. He doesn't deserve a raise for the sake of a raise, imo. He deserves to be the highest paid at his position. 99% of the time guys get a raise with their second contract in this situation, but he had a very unique rookie deal. He should be looking more at a five year extension than he should a big raise...

While I agree with you TP -- What Suh and his agent will say is. We played out the rookie deal, made multiple sacrifices for the team by restructuring and in 3 of the 4 years on the team, was named to the NFL All-Pro 1st team.

Suh can get a 5 year extension from anyone in the NFL. He is just entering his prime and holds all the cards. The Lions have absolutely no leverage in his dealings. He could demand to be paid as the top defensive player in the league and if the Lions don't want to give it to him -- he just enters FA and he goes to whatever team he wants to play for next year, as teams will be lining up to sign him. Detroit's reward -- a 3rd round comp pick. If Detroit wants to trade him now, they not only will still have to eat a 19 million dollar cap hit, but Suh can refuse to sign an extension, which would pretty much nullify any type of value they would receive, as the team would be gambling on a 1 year rental.

Detroit's front office is handcuffed with Suh. Best case scenario is, they sign him as the highest paid DT with a contract that is the same as his rookie deal. I don't think anyone believes that will happen though. Worst case scenario, they are unable to get a deal done or a trade done and say good bye next year with basically nothing in return.

 

[lionstop1]

TP, if you hold all the cards, would you stick around for less money knowing there are plenty of other teams willing to pay more? I wouldn't. He has done a few favors for the team so I see it as very likely that he does want some type of increase. The best athletes never settle for less.

 

[Naughtymax]

TP, if you hold all the cards, would you stick around for less money knowing there are plenty of other teams willing to pay more? I wouldn't. He has done a few favors for the team so I see it as very likely that he does want some type of increase. The best athletes never settle for less.

I just had this conversation with a very nice guy we had to move from a management position to an engineering position a year ago. It basically went, "I really like you and am happy with your work. You know, though, that we let you keep your old salary when you changed positions and you are paid well above the range of salaries we have for your current job. So, don't take this as negative in any way, but for a few years I won't be able to give you a raise."

I'm sure he doesn't like it - who would? The truth, though, is that he won't find employment at that salary anywhere else, and the same applies to Suh.

Finally, Suh doesn't hold ALL the cards. The Lions have the right to trade him now or let him walk for a low third and $20MM in future cap space to sign other free agents at market value. The latter option would be better than tying several million cap dollars up in an overpaid contract.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Why? I can't figure out this line of thinking- he was already the highest paid DT in the league. He doesn't deserve a raise for the sake of a raise, imo. He deserves to be the highest paid at his position. 99% of the time guys get a raise with their second contract in this situation, but he had a very unique rookie deal. He should be looking more at a five year extension than he should a big raise...

What about inflation? How will he be able to keep up with the standard of living if he doesn't get a little bump at least?

 

[gandydancer]

What about inflation? How will he be able to keep up with the standard of living if he doesn't get a little bump at least?

Just a small bump that would let you and I take a year off? Small bump...

 

[gandydancer]

I'm sure he doesn't like it - who would? The truth, though, is that he won't find employment at that salary anywhere else, and the same applies to Suh.

Suh will find a new employer. Some guys don't get what they were going to get paid. DJax did not get his 10 million he was going to get from Philly. Those two are nowhere near talent wise to compare. Just a example of how guys get cut or leave and don't get what they had or were going to get from current team.

IMO not sure how many teams would jump at 60-65 million for 5 years for Suh. That is were I agree with you Max.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Since the staggering stupidity and ignorance that dominated this board for so long appears to at least be temporarily halted I will come out of retirement and make a post on a subject that I love to talk about.

The Lions are completely backed into a corner here. The GM and team President are fighting for their jobs. It is an impossibility that they can keep those jobs if they lose Suh in FA next year for a 3rd round comp pick.

The franchise tag in 2015 is not a realistic option for the Lions. Because of the tag rules they would have to pay him a salary a little north of $15m. That actually would not be a deal breaker by itself. What would be however is the $9.5m in dead money still on his contract. We would be looking at a cap hit of approx $24.5m. This would happen in the same year that CJ's hit is in excess of $20m. It simply can not happen.

I am proud of Millenhew for his most recent actions here. If you dont like me calling him that then pay attention and learn what he has done to your team. At least by not denying the Lions having explored the trade option he does put at least some leverage back on his side. While the Lions can not afford to franchise him next year there are many other teams in the league that could at $15m. So a one year rental actually becomes a two year deal. He would have no say in where he gets traded in that case and its two years before he can explore the open market and seek the big money guaranteed contract. In addition he would no longer have any leverage to get anything more than a true market value deal for his position. This will push him back to the negotiating table and soften his stance on what he can demand. Playing this year without any more guaranteed money and then the very real possibility of being tagged next year is not what he or his agent want.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

DR. Evil-er... Welcome back

 

[tpaulus_2]

Since the staggering stupidity and ignorance that dominated this board for so long appears to at least be temporarily halted I will come out of retirement and make a post on a subject that I love to talk about.

The Lions are completely backed into a corner here. The GM and team President are fighting for their jobs. It is an impossibility that they can keep those jobs if they lose Suh in FA next year for a 3rd round comp pick.

The franchise tag in 2015 is not a realistic option for the Lions. Because of the tag rules they would have to pay him a salary a little north of $15m. That actually would not be a deal breaker by itself. What would be however is the $9.5m in dead money still on his contract. We would be looking at a cap hit of approx $24.5m. This would happen in the same year that CJ's hit is in excess of $20m. It simply can not happen.

I am proud of Millenhew for his most recent actions here. If you dont like me calling him that then pay attention and learn what he has done to your team. At least by not denying the Lions having explored the trade option he does put at least some leverage back on his side. While the Lions can not afford to franchise him next year there are many other teams in the league that could at $15m. So a one year rental actually becomes a two year deal. He would have no say in where he gets traded in that case and its two years before he can explore the open market and seek the big money guaranteed contract. In addition he would no longer have any leverage to get anything more than a true market value deal for his position. This will push him back to the negotiating table and soften his stance on what he can demand. Playing this year without any more guaranteed money and then the very real possibility of being tagged next year is not what he or his agent want.

We've actually seen more Bigfoot sightings over the last couple months then we have from this guy! I told you guys he really existed!

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I was under the assumption Suh's cap hit for a 2015 franchise tag by the Lions would be 26.88 mil (his 2013 22.4 mil x 20% = 26.88 mil). I'm probably wrong. You are correct regarding a franchise tag by another team should he be traded (12.7 mil x 20% = 15.24 mil).

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Make no mistake that if the Lions let the draft pass by without either a new contract or having traded him we are completely screwed. Continuing to try and sign him during the season is an absolutely lost option.

Not only will he not drop the demands of what he is looking for but his leverage will actually increase and his trade value will be greatly diminshed. I can guarentee you that he and his agent know that. If there was a deal to be done here that was reasonable it already would be done. It's priority #1 for the Lions.

They publically stated that they expected to have it done on the verge of the beginning of FA. That didnt happen. Go ahead and blame the issue with the new agent as being the reason. Then what is the reason it hasnt been done in the 7 weeks that have since passed? That is far and away your most telling sign of problems here.

Unless Millenhew is even more stupid then I already think he is, and that is almost a virtual impossibility, the trade talks are about to ramp up big time.

We are either about to overpay in a simply staggering way, and quite frankly even his current deal would be a staggering overpayment, or he is going to be traded. Atkins contract averages $10.6m/yr, wouldnt you consider a deal that is a 20% premium on that to be overpayment? And that is only what he earns now. Is there anyone who truly feels he isnt asking for a raise? Especially with the unbelievable amount of leverage he has?

I have said over and over and over again that there are consequences to consistently restructuring these deals and here you are staring an absolutely perfect example of it right in your face. Pick your poison, either pay a ridiculous amount or trade away the best defensive player that has played for the Lions in that last 30 years.

Welcome to REALITY guys. I'm the President of that club and damn proud of it. Prove to me that I'm wrong about anything I've said here and I will recant my statements.

At some point in the next two weeks Suh and his agent SHOULD begin to soften their stance some because if they dont get a deal done then he will face the open market next year and lose his negotiating leverage. As a result he can almost certainly get a bigger deal with the Lions then he should fetch in the open market because of that leverage. But that is certainly not a guarantee if he wants out of Detroit. If that is the case then he will stay only if he gets overpaid to the point that he would be a fool not to. He's not a fool but the clowns in our front office are so be prepared to grab your ankles guys.

 

[Microwahevo]

Since the staggering stupidity and ignorance that dominated this board for so long appears to at least be temporarily halted I will come out of retirement and make a post on a subject that I love to talk about.

The Lions are completely backed into a corner here. The GM and team President are fighting for their jobs. It is an impossibility that they can keep those jobs if they lose Suh in FA next year for a 3rd round comp pick.

The franchise tag in 2015 is not a realistic option for the Lions. Because of the tag rules they would have to pay him a salary a little north of $15m. That actually would not be a deal breaker by itself. What would be however is the $9.5m in dead money still on his contract. We would be looking at a cap hit of approx $24.5m. This would happen in the same year that CJ's hit is in excess of $20m. It simply can not happen.

I am proud of Millenhew for his most recent actions here. If you dont like me calling him that then pay attention and learn what he has done to your team. At least by not denying the Lions having explored the trade option he does put at least some leverage back on his side. While the Lions can not afford to franchise him next year there are many other teams in the league that could at $15m. So a one year rental actually becomes a two year deal. He would have no say in where he gets traded in that case and its two years before he can explore the open market and seek the big money guaranteed contract. In addition he would no longer have any leverage to get anything more than a true market value deal for his position. This will push him back to the negotiating table and soften his stance on what he can demand. Playing this year without any more guaranteed money and then the very real possibility of being tagged next year is not what he or his agent want.

Were you wearing your Lions hat when you typed this?

 

[tpaulus_2]

I was under the assumption Suh's cap hit for a 2015 franchise tag by the Lions would be 26.88 mil (his 2013 22.4 mil x 20% = 26.88 mil). I'm probably wrong. You are correct regarding a franchise tag by another team should he be traded (12.7 mil x 20% = 15.24 mil).

They don't factor in all his dead bonus money into what the salary cap charge would be, only the amount pro-rated for the previous year... At least I think that's how it goes...

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

I was under the assumption Suh's cap hit for a 2015 franchise tag by the Lions would be 26.88 mil (his 2013 22.4 mil x 20% = 26.88 mil). I'm probably wrong. You are correct regarding a franchise tag by another team should he be traded (12.7 mil x 20% = 15.24 mil).

The franchise tag should be a 20% increase over the players salary or the average of the top contracts at the player position (whichever is greater), not over his cap hit.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Were you wearing your Lions hat when you typed this?

No, and I refuse to tell that story in a public forum. It was embarrassing enough considering the circumstances and the state of my discontent with this team.

I threw the bag of that crap onto the top shelf of my closet where I expect it to sit with the other bag of crap that has been there for years as well. I hate this team.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

The franchise tag should be a 20% increase over the players salary or the average of the top contracts at the player position (whichever is greater), not over his cap hit.

Got it. Glad you straightened that out for me.

A couple of reporters stated 26-27 mil (birkett, rogers, twentyman)