Forbes piece estimates most overpaid players

[JDM]

How much of that is having poor QB play not put him in positions to make plays after the catch? He's certainly a legitimate threat to make a play when he gets opportunities. One of the downsides of most receiver numbers is that they are very reliant on QB play.

I'm not saying he's elite after the catch, but I don't think he's bad either.

 

[NinerSickness]

Bump.

Mario Williams sure is overrated & overpaid.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Bump.

Mario Williams sure is overrated & overpaid.

Kind of funny to me that you bumped this. As I tried to point out several months ago, one of the conclusions drawn in the Forbes piece is that Mario Williams' salary further exceeded the value of his contribution to his team last year by more than did any other player's. If you want to argue that that conclusion is wrong, it really doesn't make sense to use evidence about how he is playing this year.

Since you do bring up both years, however, you might have noticed that Mario already has 7.5 sacks through only five games this year, which on a per game basis is better than the 10.5 sacks he had in 16 games last year. This improvement in individual production from last year to this year presumably lessens the amount by which he was overpaid last year. On the other hand, the facts that the Buffalo defense is still bottom third in points per game and the team has a worse winning percentage than it did when it finished 8-8 presumably makes Mario more overpaid than he was last year. The net effect, I suspect, of better individual play and a worse team winning percentage is that, according to the analysis in the Forbes piece, Mario is in fact still overpaid this year, though perhaps not as much so as he was last year.

Finally, it might be informative to think about what would have to happen between now and the end of the season in order for Mario's value to his team to at least equal his salary. If Mario continues to play well, the Bills defense as a whole gets better, and the team begins winning with greater frequency, then Mario's value to his team will go up, perhaps even to where earning around $10 million a year no longer makes him overpaid.

 

[Money]

Being a longstanding fan of the Steelers.. I have watched Flacco for a long time and seen his highs and lows... And I can honestly say that I would take Romo over Flacco any day! It may sound obscene from an outside the AFCN point of view, but trust me, if Romo had the O-line and defense that Flacco had carrying him all these years... Romo probably would have done more damage. I'm not taking anything away from Flacco's postseason last year, because he made me more of a believer. But prior to that, he couldn't get a win on the road to save his life. Just look at his road stats last season. They were pretty pitiful, save a few decent outings.

That's kind of an odd thing to say about a QB who prior to last year had 4 road playoff wins in 4 years and easily outplayed Brady on the road in the 2011 AFCCG.

 

[JDM]

The ravens defense was very good and the patriots was very bad. Hard to compare stat lines like that.

 

[Money]

The ravens defense was very good and the patriots was very bad. Hard to compare stat lines like that.

The point wasn't to make a comparison. Flacco played very well that game on the road and came a great defensive play short of winning it and a missed chip shot FG away from possibly winning it in OT. That was the point.

 

[Bunkamania]

I guess a lot of fullbacks and tight ends are on the list because blocking doesn't show up in statistics therefore, they appear to do nothing on most plays.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I guess a lot of fullbacks and tight ends are on the list because blocking doesn't show up in statistics therefore, they appear to do nothing on most plays.

That is one reason. Another is that few if any FBs and TEs get paid like the highest paid WRs and DEs. Remember, the analysis in the Forbes piece aims to identify how much a player is overpaid or underpaid by comparing what he makes to his estimated value to his team. That second reason (the pay differences for the positions) makes it much more likely that WRs and DEs are more overpaid or underpaid than are FBs or TEs.

 

[TDs3nOut]

I guess a lot of fullbacks and tight ends are on the list because blocking doesn't show up in statistics therefore, they appear to do nothing on most plays.

Just realized that I misread your post. Got it my mind that you wrote "a lot of FBs and TEs are not on the list", so my previous reply to it makes absolutely no sense! LOL

The only reason I can think of for that is that the authors use percent of salary by which a player is overpaid or underpaid, rather than that absolute amount.

 

[NinerSickness]

Kind of funny to me that you bumped this. As I tried to point out several months ago, one of the conclusions drawn in the Forbes piece is that Mario Williams' salary further exceeded the value of his contribution to his team last year by more than did any other player's. If you want to argue that that conclusion is wrong, it really doesn't make sense to use evidence about how he is playing this year.

Since you do bring up both years, however, you might have noticed that Mario already has 7.5 sacks through only five games this year, which on a per game basis is better than the 10.5 sacks he had in 16 games last year. This improvement in individual production from last year to this year presumably lessens the amount by which he was overpaid last year. On the other hand, the facts that the Buffalo defense is still bottom third in points per game and the team has a worse winning percentage than it did when it finished 8-8 presumably makes Mario more overpaid than he was last year. The net effect, I suspect, of better individual play and a worse team winning percentage is that, according to the analysis in the Forbes piece, Mario is in fact still overpaid this year, though perhaps not as much so as he was last year.

Finally, it might be informative to think about what would have to happen between now and the end of the season in order for Mario's value to his team to at least equal his salary. If Mario continues to play well, the Bills defense as a whole gets better, and the team begins winning with greater frequency, then Mario's value to his team will go up, perhaps even to where earning around $10 million a year no longer makes him overpaid.

Mario was never overpaid. He got 10.5 sacks last year despite playing injured at the beginning of the season. He gets constant doubles; he's great against the run. Offenses have to go away from him. He was always worth every penny the Bills paid him.