Five Bears with the most to prove in 2018

[Racer8825]

Exactly. His 3rd year will be important. But to rank Trubisky #1 in most to prove this year shows how stupid some people here are.

He's not #1 on my list but he's certainly one of the 5 who's got alot to prove.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

PFF and Football Outsiders ranked Trubisky ahead of Watson/MaHomes. I think both even ranked him in the top half of QB's based on last season's performance.

I was talking popular opinion, but yeah, I could see how a ranking system that takes games played into account would rank Trubisky ahead of Watson and Mahomes.

 

[richig07]

I was talking popular opinion, but yeah, I could see how a ranking system that takes games played into account would rank Trubisky ahead of Watson and Mahomes.

PFF and Football Outsiders don't take games played into account. Trubisky graded higher than Watson on a per game basis. Better by nearly all of their metrics. A good portion of Watson's yardage and TD's came in garbage time. Those sites grade based off of film - the difficulty of coverage you're seeing and throws you are completing is taken into account. That and turnovers hurt him. Turnovers make a good impact on your score and Watson committed a good deal.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

PFF and Football Outsiders don't take games played into account. Trubisky graded higher than Watson on a per game basis. Better by nearly all of their metrics.

Well, that’s ridiculous. Those statistics are clearly flawed. Watson had the best year from rookie QBs last year by far.

 

[richig07]

Well, that’s ridiculous. Those statistics are clearly flawed. Watson had the best year from rookie QBs last year by far.

Not at all. Watson wasn't good. lol

 

[richig07]

@Beengay fudgepackers

This is a pretty good rundown of how fluffed up his surface stats were and how "highlight" bias affects us all.

He straight up struggled as a passer.

Highlight bias and garbage time (i.e. majority of his KC game stats)... He was a great fantasy QB. Not a great real life QB.

Deshaun Watson's big rookie season -- What you aren't seeing | PFF News & Analysis | Pro Football Focus

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

@Beengay fudgepackers

This is a pretty good rundown of how fluffed up his surface stats were and how "highlight" bias affects us all.

He straight up struggled as a passer.

Highlight bias and garbage time (i.e. majority of his KC game stats)... He was a great fantasy QB. Not a great real life QB.

Deshaun Watson's big rookie season -- What you aren't seeing | PFF News & Analysis | Pro Football Focus

I didn’t say he was great. I said he had the best year of rookie QBs by far. Trubiskys rookie year wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good. Watson’s was good. I don’t really care what pff says.

 

[beardown07]

Trubisky will have a better career than Watson.

 

[richig07]

I didn’t say he was great. I said he had the best year of rookie QBs by far. Trubiskys rookie year wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good. Watson’s was good. I don’t really care what pff says.

Trubisky's was absolutely better. He was the 4th rated deep passer in the NFL, 2nd in 3rd down rating and was a full 5 points better than Watson in adjusted CMP% (takes out drops and throwaways).

Watson's adjusted CMP% was so bad that it was surpassed by 7 QB's standard CMP%.

One cause for concern was how inaccurate he was with the ball in general. Watson posted an adjusted completion percentage of just 65.6, a figure so low that it was exceeded by the traditional completion percentage of seven quarterbacks. As suspect as the supporting cast was in Houston over the year, Watson also saw just two passes dropped, giving him the best drop rate in the league by a considerable margin. His numbers seemed primed for regression, but we never saw them get the opportunity to do so because of his injury.

Watson was one of the worst in the NFL in committing turnover-worthy plays/throws and with accuracy. The biggest fears about Watson were confirmed in his rookie year. His surface numbers were a complete mirage.

You have to remember that PFF, Football Outsiders... etc... This is all based off of film and one of it's best functions is to remove elements of luck, supporting cast, bias... etc... Trubisky played slightly better than Watson, with horrific handcuffing from his coaching staff and even less help from his supporting cast.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Trubisky's was absolutely better. He was the 4th rated deep passer in the NFL, 2nd in 3rd down rating and was a full 5 points better than Watson in adjusted CMP% (takes out drops and throwaways).

Watson's adjusted CMP% was so bad that it was surpassed by 7 QB's standard CMP%.

One cause for concern was how inaccurate he was with the ball in general. Watson posted an adjusted completion percentage of just 65.6, a figure so low that it was exceeded by the traditional completion percentage of seven quarterbacks. As suspect as the supporting cast was in Houston over the year, Watson also saw just two passes dropped, giving him the best drop rate in the league by a considerable margin. His numbers seemed primed for regression, but we never saw them get the opportunity to do so because of his injury.

Watson was one of the worst in the NFL in committing turnover-worthy plays/throws and with accuracy. The biggest fears about Watson were confirmed in his rookie year. His surface numbers were a complete mirage.

You have to remember that PFF, Football Outsiders... etc... This is all based off of film and one of it's best functions is to remove elements of luck, supporting cast, bias... etc... Trubisky played slightly better than Watson, with horrific handcuffing from his coaching staff and even less help from his supporting cast.

We will just have to agree to disagree. Either way, popular opinion is that Trubisky is the second or third best QB taken in the draft, which is what I originally meant.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Trubisky will have a better career than Watson.

Agreed

 

[wood20ks]

I didn’t say he was great. I said he had the best year of rookie QBs by far. Trubiskys rookie year wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good. Watson’s was good. I don’t really care what pff says.

Watson had by far the better year of the rookie q Bs last season......Not sure why this would be debated.

Ray Charles could see Watson would of had a huge season before he got injured.

 

[BsGenius]

Watson had by far the better year of the rookie q Bs last season......Not sure why this would be debated.

Ray Charles could see Watson would of had a huge season before he got injured.

Careful you will get into the richi vortex. This is where you will be headed with richi:

1. Make some long winded nonsensical post that no one will ever read in it's entirety. <-- you are entering this zone, you have been warned
2. Accuse other person of meltdown (or some variation of that) in an attempt hide his own raging anger and frustration that he's not winning.
3. (Optionally) Proudly accuse person of straw man tactics (because richi is very proud he knows what straw man is) -- loop x number of times.
4. Declare victory.

 

[richig07]

Watson had by far the better year of the rookie q Bs last season......Not sure why this would be debated.

Ray Charles could see Watson would of had a huge season before he got injured.

Except he didn't -- He turned it over a ton, was horrifically inaccurate and fluffed his stats late in games. I trust both the metrics and the staff who viewed the film. All made up of NFL scouts, former GM's and former NFL coaches before I trust some random person on a message board. Even if it's people that I have posted with for years.

He was not good. His numbers all pointed to a tremendous amount of regression forthcoming prior to the injury.

He was a very good fantasy football QB and that's about it.

 

[beardown07]

He had an exciting rookie season.


So did RGIII.

 

[BsGenius]

He had an exciting rookie season.

So did Dan Marino.

 

[wood20ks]

Except he didn't -- He turned it over a ton, was horrifically inaccurate and fluffed his stats late in games. I trust both the metrics and the staff who viewed the film. All made up of NFL scouts, former GM's and former NFL coaches before I trust some random person on a message board. Even if it's people that I have posted with for years.

He was not good. His numbers all pointed to a tremendous amount of regression forthcoming prior to the injury.

He was a very good fantasy football QB and that's about it.

 

[richig07]

He had an exciting rookie season.


So did RGIII.

My thing with Watson is that nobody even really bats an eye at what the injury could potentially mean towards his future. It's kind of amazing to me. Any time you have running QB, durability is a question mark. He blew out his knee 7 games into his career. We've seen what injuries can do to running QB's in the past. Why is this not raised as a concern, ever? I never hear it brought up.

 

[richig07]

I do like Rodney. I suppose you agree, then.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I do like Rodney. I suppose you agree, then.

I think he just doesn’t want to get into a stupid argument with you over something that doesn’t matter. I would equate debating football with you to stabbing yourself in the eye with an ice pick. I don’t want to do either and there’s no purpose to it either.