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SmokingMonkey

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consistency and inconsistency is ok when predictable... Usually it is... sometimes it is not... But I think we focus too much on inconsistency...

Also, generally speaking every player has good games and bad games... so if you take anyones top 4 games it should be Much better than 25% of their season.... sure 43% is too high, but I would expect the league average to be around 36%...

you detailed out the exact thing I was trying to show SP - Antonio Brown was a stud last yr for fantasy, super consistent throughout the season. But even his stats dramatically shift when you take out his top 4 games.

its just part of the hustle - know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em
 

SteelersPride

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Thomas Jones
Priest Holmes
Marshawn Lynch
Ahman Green
Tiki Barber
Priests first season that he got a carry he had 1000 yards

Marshawn has 1100 yards year one?

Ahmans first year with opportunities he had over 1k

Tiki is. A Good one
 

TREFF

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Priests first season that he got a carry he had 1000 yards

Marshawn has 1100 yards year one?

Ahmans first year with opportunities he had over 1k

Tiki is. A Good one
So outside of Lynch, who we all know was constantly losing touches to Fast Freddy his entire time in Buffalo and then they shipped him out, then and only then did he become Beast Mode.. They're exactly the same situations..first time they really got a real shot..they produced. I'm not sure how that's any different than Henry, he didn't get a real shot till at minimum midway through the season. Outside of Houston last year, and 2 games vs Jax, two of the stoutest D's in the league (Zeke and Gurley barely got 100 yards on 20+ carries against those Jag D's), every time, in his whole career, including those first two years, that he has received more than 17 carries..he's produced, and produced well. Just a matter of giving the guy the ball, and sticking with it. I don't call 5-10 carries most games, a real shot, especially not for a back built to pound on people.
 

SmokingMonkey

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Priests first season that he got a carry he had 1000 yards

then he disappeared for 3 seasons, got cut, and became a fantasy stud in KC

i think its a great example as well, but pick and choose what ya like, that's why we all play the game
 

TREFF

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Interesting that Thomas Jones was untouched. Absolute crap for 4 years, on two different teams, then reels off 7 consecutive years of plus production, 5 of which well over 1k yards. Doesn't get much more textbook late bloomer than that
 

Chef99

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Interesting that Thomas Jones was untouched. Absolute crap for 4 years, on two different teams, then reels off 7 consecutive years of plus production, 5 of which well over 1k yards. Doesn't get much more textbook late bloomer than that

Who? :pound::pound::pound:
 

HaroldSeattle

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Henry really hasn't been given the chance to pile up carries, and now it looks like he'll be given that chance. I get it, you aren't a fan of the talent, but you really think they are gonna let Lewis out touch Henry the first 8wks again? Opportunity is knocking, and the explosiveness has been there all along. Dude's a freight train when he gets in stride, not tons of backs in the league with his HR ability. ADP is mid-3rd right now, 18th RB off the board, no one will draft this guy early 2nd, so the risk-reward seems right
Think the team will try to ride Henry, but he is so game script vulnerable that he's just not going to be one of the better Rbs in the league. Should be obvious that backs that can both run and catch are the ones you want to own. Henry is the kind you love as a bench guy, because if game script goes right he could blow up. If game script goes wrong and you have him in your starting lineup, you'll be real depressed. Good enough for depth, but you sure as heck don't want him to be a regular starter if you want to compete.
Today's NFL require RBs to have the complete tool set to be great and Henry doesn't.
 

Chef99

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Think the team will try to ride Henry, but he is so game script vulnerable that he's just not going to be one of the better Rbs in the league. Should be obvious that backs that can both run and catch are the ones you want to own. Henry is the kind you love as a bench guy, because if game script goes right he could blow up. If game script goes wrong and you have him in your starting lineup, you'll be real depressed. Good enough for depth, but you sure as heck don't want him to be a regular starter if you want to compete.
Today's NFL require RBs to have the complete tool set to be great and Henry doesn't.

Y'know what? I agree with you about this. For now. Just remember, things change.
 

SteelersPride

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Interesting that Thomas Jones was untouched. Absolute crap for 4 years, on two different teams, then reels off 7 consecutive years of plus production, 5 of which well over 1k yards. Doesn't get much more textbook late bloomer than that
That actually is another great one.
 

SteelersPride

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@HaroldSeattle i know you’ve mentioned being blocked from DRAFT. What all are you blocked from? Draft kings? Fan duel? Any fee based online fantasy?
 

HaroldSeattle

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@HaroldSeattle i know you’ve mentioned being blocked from DRAFT. What all are you blocked from? Draft kings? Fan duel? Any fee based online fantasy?
All the big gambling sites are off limits. I can do leagues that are private and use a independent pay site like league safe. Fantrax treasury I'm good to go on. Draft king, Fan duel forget about it. No can do. Sucks, but maybe it's saving me a ton of money IDK.:D
 

HaroldSeattle

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All the big gambling sites are off limits. I can do leagues that are private and use a independent pay site like league safe. Fantrax treasury I'm good to go on. Draft king, Fan duel forget about it. No can do. Sucks, but maybe it's saving me a ton of money IDK.:D
Breaking a rule here, but going to add this. The one and only thing I like about Washington State politics is there is no state tax, not for lack of them trying to pass a state tax, keeps coming up. In the meantime they practically tax you for breathing.
 

TREFF

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Think the team will try to ride Henry, but he is so game script vulnerable that he's just not going to be one of the better Rbs in the league. Should be obvious that backs that can both run and catch are the ones you want to own. Henry is the kind you love as a bench guy, because if game script goes right he could blow up. If game script goes wrong and you have him in your starting lineup, you'll be real depressed. Good enough for depth, but you sure as heck don't want him to be a regular starter if you want to compete.
Today's NFL require RBs to have the complete tool set to be great and Henry doesn't.
I would agree with that as well. But, could still rush for a boatload of yards, even without the greatness.
 

TREFF

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Ppl also say history tends to repeat itself.
Lord I hope so. I would love for the days of Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, Kevin Mack and Byner, Betti's, Iron Head Heyward, Okoye, ...when RB's were RB's. If they were good at other stuff, great, if not? They still got the ball 20+ times a game and teams didn't screw around with "3rd down backs" or "committees" or specialty "roles". And when if a QB threw for 3750 yds and 30 TDs, it was because they were that damned good, not because they chucked it 40 times a game every week.
 

HaroldSeattle

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I would agree with that as well. But, could still rush for a boatload of yards, even without the greatness.
Depending on game script though. I'd rather not gamble on that myself if a safer alternative is possible. Course at some point in the draft I'd be willing to take the plunge, most likely he's be long gone by then. Be A OK with me if that's the case. Let others take the gamble with a high pick based on a short spree of success.
 
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