Early strategy for 2014 drafts-Rb's

[TREFF]

Ok, I know it's WAY WAY too early to realistically discuss this with any real solid idea, but damnit, it's too quiet around here.

So, with the still prevalent strategy in most leagues of RB, RB, RB and more RB's, I pose the question to you all; Will you still consider going RB heavy given the way last year played out and some of the thing we'll be looking at heading into next year?

Things like-
*Impending free agents for 2014 who will be looking for jobs, many of which may be going from a bonafied starter, to staring a time share or worse dead in the face?
Guys that are set to be looking for a new job, just based on their contracts being up alone, include- MJD, McFadden, Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Andre Brown, Gerhert, Ben Tate and Blount, just to point out the biggest names that will be unrestricted free agents.
Expanding to restricted free agents, we can add Joquie Bell to the list, and he's surely upped his value this season, someone might be willing to make Detriot think twice about matching an offer sheet.
That's a lot of fantasy contributors that we will no longer have any realistic history to point to and whatever we think they may do with whatever team they end up with will be based on pure speculation.
* late season/offseason cuts-
Chris Johnson is about as good as dead. So may as well add him to the list of free agents, so there's another "marquee" name that will be searching for a job, and will likely only find a part time offer.
* job availability
what teams in the NFL are truly in the market for a big time Rb like most of the ones named above? The Browns? Anyone else? almost any team that is currently "in the market" are most likely looking for a complimentary piece to add to whatever they already have, and in many of those cases, a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round draft pick can be that piece at a greatly reduced price than what it would take to even get a CJ?K, DMC, or MJD to sign for the veteran minimum (like that'll happen).
*the emergence of the elite QB's and WR's being able to "carry" your team.
Going into last season we all thought that guys like Russel Wilson, Kaepernick, Newton, Stafford, ect.., would be more than reason enough to wait on a QB on draft day. What ended up happening is guys that took the elite B's, like Brees and Manning, and for most the season, Rodgers, usually crushed us if they maintained the rest of their team well. I know I won't be the guy screaming from the mountaintops to wait on a QB in 2014. I may or may not do it myself, but I sure wouldn't advise someone to.
And the WR's, Calvin, AJ Green, Dez, DThomas, Marshall all proved VERY worthy of being a high selection, some probably worthy of higher than they actually were. Add in the returns of guys like Cobb, and Julio Jones, plus the emergence of #1 WR Josh Gordon, and Alshon Jeffries..getting two of these guys instead of a couple of 2nd and 3rd tier Rb's? where do I sign?

I for one, will be approaching my 2014 rafts very differently than before. I had a small taste of what can happen without 2 stud Rb's in the MBBRL, it felt totally out of place, but it worked (until my 2 stud WR's went down at least). I'll still be targeting AP, Charles, McCoy and Lynch in the top 4, but after that, I'm turning my sights on QB's and WR's, and then looking to grab the receiving parts of commitees later in the draft.

Anyone else have any thoughts to share?

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Depends on the scoring in your league, all leagues are different. My league could see 2 QB's go in the top 5 based on our scoring. We've had the same scoring for 13 years, going on 14 in this year.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Our scoring:

Passing TD: 1-49yards-6 points
Passing TD: 50-99 Yards- 12 points

Same goes for RB and WR.

QB gets a 3 points bonus for throwing over 300 yards
WR and RB get 3 point bonus for going over 100 yards
Standard PPR league.
QB gets 1 point per every 20 yards.

 

[TREFF]

Depends on the scoring in your league, all leagues are different. My league could see 2 QB's go in the top 5 based on our scoring. We've had the same scoring for 13 years, going on 14 in this year.

For purposes of keeping things simple, I always give/ask for advice/opinions based on standard scoring unless the post is specifically asking otherwise.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Ok, I know it's WAY WAY too early to realistically discuss this with any real solid idea, but damnit, it's too quiet around here.

baseball time for me Treff... but without going into detail, I will say again, and this time I hope I back it up by doing it, the best strategy is to have 2 or 3 WR (depending on how many start) a QB and a RB in your first 4 of 5 picks.. then just go haywire with RB's. I just find that throughout the season, there are more Bobby Raineys than Alshon Jefferys.

 

[wilwhite]

I just find that throughout the season, there are more Bobby Raineys than Alshon Jefferys.

And Jeffrey was usually drafted. The only out-of-nowhere ww WRs worth a snot for more than a week this year were Douglas, Boykin, Marlon Brown, and early on Terrance Williams and Eddie Royal. For RBs there were Donald Brown, Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Rainey, McGahee / Edwin Baker late, Reece and Ogbonnaya... and possibly Zac Stacy if he was undrafted/dropped. It was definitely easier to reload RBs from the waiver this year than WRs.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

For purposes of keeping things simple, I always give/ask for advice/opinions based on standard scoring unless the post is specifically asking otherwise.

No problem. Standard scoring, I would say the 5 you mentioned then the 2 I mentioned above after it.

 

[Bandit]

If I have a top 5 pick I will be drafting either Peterson, Charles, Lynch, Mccoy, or Forte. I would throw Forte into the no brainer top 5 pick category after this year. If I have the 6th pick it's going to be tough whether I would go Calvin Johnson or Eddie Lacey right now. Things might change, but having a pick at the back end of the first round is seriously going to suck next year. There are really only about 8 legitimate first round picks next year in my opinion.

 

[TREFF]

Canes, so if we go with that and assume your 6 RB's are first rounders, which I would agree with BTW, we've got Calvin, Rodgers, Brees, Manning.. We're up to a full first round for a ten teamer right there. 12 teamers might have a problem at the backend, but they are getting 2 of the guys that would be borderline.

 

[wilwhite]

For me, Rodgers is a distant third of those three QBs, mainly because of his injury history. He managed to go on IR as a backup, gets sacked too much, and gets hurt on runs. Apart from 2011 Peyton has never missed a game in his career, and Brees only missed a couple of Week 17s. Veteran pocket passers are the most reliable value in FF.

Rodgers could be the #1 QB, a hair above the other guys, but he could just as easily miss a few games and really hurt you. I'd even consider Brady close to Rodgers, depending on how Thompkins and Dobson execute in pre-season. And Stafford is up there, too.

If I were drafting late (which I won't be!) and those 9 guys (leaving out Rodgers) were gone, I'd probably look at Le'Veon and then Gordon/Dez/Marshall/Julio on the way back (gotta take one RB because it'll be awful thin by the time it comes back around). Then hope for Stafford/Brady in the third.

 

[Bandit]

Canes, so if we go with that and assume your 6 RB's are first rounders, which I would agree with BTW, we've got Calvin, Rodgers, Brees, Manning.. We're up to a full first round for a ten teamer right there. 12 teamers might have a problem at the backend, but they are getting 2 of the guys that would be borderline.

I was going off a 12 team league and yes I have those six RB's, Calvin, and Manning as my first rounders. Brees is borderline and I think Rodgers is more of a middle of the 2nd round guy. The point is there won't be near as many sure first rounders as last year, you know like Ray Rice, Trent Richardson, C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Arian Foster who were guaranteed to make your draft great

 

[TREFF]

(which I won't be!)

We're all still holding out hope that you've been a victim of a alien abduction and that at some point between now and Draft day they'll return WW to his own body

 

[TREFF]

Well I sure wouldn't argue too hard about Rogers being a borderline type of guy. But, someone will grab him, if for no other reason than the ones Canes brought up. . Not as many "surefire" 1st rounders. . So do you take the chance on the RB when you were scorched by that strategy this year? Or go for the elite QB? I would take the chance on Rodgers.

 

[MrNLM]

I know it sounds cliche but, I go after players I think will do well/like, THEN I go BPA, If BPA does not suit me then I go to my backup plan... survey what players my opponents need and try to snipe them. At least this way I can barter off a player that I don't need for one that could be serviceable.

The past two years applying this method I have been able to garner a starting lineup with every single player within the top 10 of their respective position. However, I don't typically put merit into the rankings until after the majority of the bye weeks are through.

 

[TREFF]

Well its hard to argue against that strategy MrNLM, it's exactly what I've tried to do every Draft I've ever been in. I was more referring to the process of picking those guys you like/think will do well, especially as it pertains to the first 2-3 rounds.

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

Treff- At least as of now, I think your view of RB not being as valuable as they have been in the past may be shared by the majority of drafters in 2014. For this reason, I may go contrary to this view in some of my leagues and stick with some of the "2nd tier" RBs earlier in the draft than. I may take a look at DeMarco, Stacey, Morris for example while others are plucking WRs and QBs in the 2nd round.

 

[leftypower]

Treff- At least as of now, I think your view of RB not being as valuable as they have been in the past may be shared by the majority of drafters in 2014. For this reason, I may go contrary to this view in some of my leagues and stick with some of the "2nd tier" RBs earlier in the draft than. I may take a look at DeMarco, Stacey, Morris for example while others are plucking WRs and QBs in the 2nd round.

Going against the grain often works. This past season all the experts were signing take RB's early and often. Stay away from QB's & TE's early. I took Manning in the 3rd and Graham in the 4th - -- worked out pretty well. If my 1st & 2nd rd RB's hadn't been busts, well, maybe I'd have made it to the top of Golden Mountain. .... Advise - stay away from Trent Richardson & Steven Jackson.

 

[dblakejr7]

the real key is having a floating sytem .. if you stick to one system you could be sunk early.. it all depends on draft position and how the other owners draft.. be flexible practice mocks with different techniques that way you can switch it up when needed

 

[SteelersPride]

Im in a PPR league, and im using 1 keeper, and im keeping calvin johnson, and i traded forte to get him......

 

[Barilko]

Im in a PPR league, and im using 1 keeper, and im keeping calvin johnson, and i traded forte to get him......

wow tough call Calvin or Forte...ouch if you sent me that trade i would pull my hair out deciding.....