Draft Strategy

[Cincyfan78]

Alright - despite the constant back and forth about the 1st round pick...

What is the strategy for rounds 2-4 where there is going to be a lot of depth at multiple positions of need.

LB, DT, DE, OG

I know it's easy to say best player available, but reality is - there have to be some needs addressed as well.

This also helps to shape the 1st and/or 2nd round picks because of who teams are expecting to be available in those 3rd and 4th rounds.

Should the Bengals go Chase in round 1 - I think the clear answer is Leatherwood/Cosmi if they are available in round 2. If not - there is a chance that a top LB or Edge will be available and both would fill immediate needs.

Round 3 seems to have the Guard from Illinois still around who would be a great fit and could compete for a starting spot right away.

Round 4 seems to have more depth at DT, WR and some OT projects, like Hudson and a few others.


If the Bengals go OL in round 1 (Sewell or other)

There are several WR's who project to be around in round 2 and 3 allowing again to grab a potential impact guy at LB/DE or double up on OL if another guy falls...and then you look for WR in round 3ish, and fill out the draft with guys on defense or some project/depth OL positions. I know I'm usually not a big OSU guy, but several of their LB's and DT/DE's project to be around in 3-5.

I really don't remember a draft that has been this deep on the lines in years. Both OL and DL....

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Alright - despite the constant back and forth about the 1st round pick...

What is the strategy for rounds 2-4 where there is going to be a lot of depth at multiple positions of need.

LB, DT, DE, OG

I know it's easy to say best player available, but reality is - there have to be some needs addressed as well.

This also helps to shape the 1st and/or 2nd round picks because of who teams are expecting to be available in those 3rd and 4th rounds.

Should the Bengals go Chase in round 1 - I think the clear answer is Leatherwood/Cosmi if they are available in round 2. If not - there is a chance that a top LB or Edge will be available and both would fill immediate needs.

Round 3 seems to have the Guard from Illinois still around who would be a great fit and could compete for a starting spot right away.

Round 4 seems to have more depth at DT, WR and some OT projects, like Hudson and a few others.


If the Bengals go OL in round 1 (Sewell or other)

There are several WR's who project to be around in round 2 and 3 allowing again to grab a potential impact guy at LB/DE or double up on OL if another guy falls...and then you look for WR in round 3ish, and fill out the draft with guys on defense or some project/depth OL positions. I know I'm usually not a big OSU guy, but several of their LB's and DT/DE's project to be around in 3-5.

I really don't remember a draft that has been this deep on the lines in years. Both OL and DL....

These are projected "potential" 1st to 3rd round OL (20 of them - damn near a whole round of their own):

Penei Sewell
Rashawn Slater
Christian Darrisaw
Alijah Vera-Tucker
Teven Jenkins
Alex Leatherwood
Wyatt Davis
Jalen Mayfield
Jackson Carman
Creed Humphrey
Dillon Radunz
Samuel Cosmi
Landon Dickerson
Trey Smith
Liam Eichenberg
Deonte Brown
Walker Little
Quinn Meinerz
James Hudson
Josh Myers

Projected 1st to 3rd round WR (16 of them - crazy between these two positions and these are the two positions targeted by most teams this year).

Ja'Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Smith
Rondale Moore
Rashod Bateman
Kadarius Toney
Elijah Moore
Terrace Marshall Jr.
D'Wayne Eskridge
Tylan Wallace
Cornell Powell
Dyami Brown
Sage Surratt
Amari Rodgers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Dazz Newsome

As many as 8 OL are projected in the 1st round. As many as 7 WR's are projected in the first round.

Hard to tell what to go for. I believe there is less drop off at the OL spot though from 1st to second round as their is WR. This does leave a crap ton of defensive players on the board as well in round two and 3.

Carlos Basham Jr possibly, along with Jayson Oweh (absolute freak, just didn't have the numbers on the field). He seems more of a project. If he was there in the 3rd round, probably take a chance on him.

We have a ton of money invested in the defense right now. Spent a lot last year, spent alot this year. Most of last years signings were hurt most of the year, Reader, Waynes. We nabbed new guys this year (Apple, Awuzie, Hilton, Henrickson, Ogunjobi), and while I was mildly pleased with our LB core, I think it is still an area of concern and weakness on this team.

The draft seems to be really deep on DT, just not highly rated guys. Guys that are quality, but they seem to be falling around the 3rd to 5th round in projections once you get away from the few top rated DT's.

TE's...you are looking at massive quality difference from first 3 to all the rest. However, I really do like McKitty's size and production, and what a great name for a Bengal. lol Maybe 5th or 6th round for him?

We may need a developmental RB in round 6 or 7 after letting Gio go. Lots of guys that fall in this range for those type of backs.

So I would set my draft like this based on quality of players, depth of positions, availability as the rounds go on:

#1 WR
#2 OL
#3 OL
#4 LB
#5 DI/DE
#6 TE
#7 RB

 

[Cincyfan78]

These are projected "potential" 1st to 3rd round OL (20 of them - damn near a whole round of their own):

Penei Sewell
Rashawn Slater
Christian Darrisaw
Alijah Vera-Tucker
Teven Jenkins
Alex Leatherwood
Wyatt Davis
Jalen Mayfield
Jackson Carman
Creed Humphrey
Dillon Radunz
Samuel Cosmi
Landon Dickerson
Trey Smith
Liam Eichenberg
Deonte Brown
Walker Little
Quinn Meinerz
James Hudson
Josh Myers

Projected 1st to 3rd round WR (16 of them - crazy between these two positions and these are the two positions targeted by most teams this year).

Ja'Marr Chase
Jaylen Waddle
DeVonta Smith
Rondale Moore
Rashod Bateman
Kadarius Toney
Elijah Moore
Terrace Marshall Jr.
D'Wayne Eskridge
Tylan Wallace
Cornell Powell
Dyami Brown
Sage Surratt
Amari Rodgers
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Dazz Newsome

As many as 8 OL are projected in the 1st round. As many as 7 WR's are projected in the first round.

Hard to tell what to go for. I believe there is less drop off at the OL spot though from 1st to second round as their is WR. This does leave a crap ton of defensive players on the board as well in round two and 3.

Carlos Basham Jr possibly, along with Jayson Oweh (absolute freak, just didn't have the numbers on the field). He seems more of a project. If he was there in the 3rd round, probably take a chance on him.

We have a ton of money invested in the defense right now. Spent a lot last year, spent alot this year. Most of last years signings were hurt most of the year, Reader, Waynes. We nabbed new guys this year (Apple, Awuzie, Hilton, Henrickson, Ogunjobi), and while I was mildly pleased with our LB core, I think it is still an area of concern and weakness on this team.

The draft seems to be really deep on DT, just not highly rated guys. Guys that are quality, but they seem to be falling around the 3rd to 5th round in projections once you get away from the few top rated DT's.

TE's...you are looking at massive quality difference from first 3 to all the rest. However, I really do like McKitty's size and production, and what a great name for a Bengal. lol Maybe 5th or 6th round for him?

We may need a developmental RB in round 6 or 7 after letting Gio go. Lots of guys that fall in this range for those type of backs.

So I would set my draft like this based on quality of players, depth of positions, availability as the rounds go on:

#1 WR
#2 OL
#3 OL
#4 LB
#5 DI/DE
#6 TE
#7 RB

I think I agree with the approach overall...even if maybe I'd go OL with the 1st round pick (in an ideal situation a trade back, but I digress...)

Where I really differ would be in round 6 or 7 with your TE/RB. I think either you go for a guy like Bresham in round 4ish (if he's there) or you just roll with what you have and hope a healthy Moss might give you something. McKitty really reminds me of Sample...not sure we need another TE unless you are looking to either find a high upside guy or getting someone like Pitts.

With Mixon and Perrine, I don't think I'd draft a RB unless they have some real special team ability. Don't forget, Bengals have TWO 6th round picks.

Ideally, I think you can find some edge guys late, like the kid from Costal who might also be able to play some OLB in a 3-4 look that the Bengals will be looking to employ some. That move also means, they will need multiple guys so depth at edge and DL will be a premium in those later rounds.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think I agree with the approach overall...even if maybe I'd go OL with the 1st round pick (in an ideal situation a trade back, but I digress...)

Where I really differ would be in round 6 or 7 with your TE/RB. I think either you go for a guy like Bresham in round 4ish (if he's there) or you just roll with what you have and hope a healthy Moss might give you something. McKitty really reminds me of Sample...not sure we need another TE unless you are looking to either find a high upside guy or getting someone like Pitts.

With Mixon and Perrine, I don't think I'd draft a RB unless they have some real special team ability. Don't forget, Bengals have TWO 6th round picks.

Ideally, I think you can find some edge guys late, like the kid from Costal who might also be able to play some OLB in a 3-4 look that the Bengals will be looking to employ some. That move also means, they will need multiple guys so depth at edge and DL will be a premium in those later rounds.

Yeah, perhaps getting the extra picks are the way to go. But unless they can find themselves a way to get a 1st round pick next year and a couple 2nd rounders this year, I fear of losing that elite difference maker for just gathered number of picks. Also, what does a 1st next year and 2 2nds mean this year?

Ideally, someone like the Broncos, Washington or New England is jonesing for Justin Fields so badly with that 5th pick that they are willing to give us this years 1st round pick, and 2nd round pick, along with next years 1st and 2023 1st round pick. Desperate to nab the guy they thought was the #2 QB on the board that fell to 5. However, if you truely feel that way, why not just offer it to New York for the #2 pick unless they refuse to move. Atlanta seems like a better trade candidate if you are going to give up that much, because you want another slot higher to guarantee your pick.

If say NE offered some crazy deal like that, yeah, I go ahead and lose Ja'Marr Chase.

You get the extra 2nd round pick this year, and you will have two 1st round picks the next two years.

Then at that point, depending on who is there, maybe Teven Jenkins, Darrisaw, whoever...i might consider flip flopping positions in the 1st and second.

I don't see McKitty as the same player as you. He seemed a decent TE who could catch and was a willing blocker. Good size and hands, not a ton of speed like Pitts, but I will be honest with you, I think you should start looking at Pitts as a WR, I don't think any team that uses him will wind up using him as a TE unless it is an emergency. His true value is in catching the ball and stretching the field. He loses play value every time he has to stay inside to block. I just think he is going to be a massive WR in this league.

I get your point about OLB deep in the draft, but we have so many late round LB'ers already, that I think I would prefer at least a potential talent boost with a guy a little higher drafted, like maybe 4th. But that is really about stocking depth at round 4, because I think our 1st 3 picks will address areas of need with the highest quality guy on the board. So regardless of where they go in rounds 4 through 7, I don't think it really matters. Best player available since everyone is going to be battling for a backup spot.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Yeah, perhaps getting the extra picks are the way to go. But unless they can find themselves a way to get a 1st round pick next year and a couple 2nd rounders this year, I fear of losing that elite difference maker for just gathered number of picks. Also, what does a 1st next year and 2 2nds mean this year?

Ideally, someone like the Broncos, Washington or New England is jonesing for Justin Fields so badly with that 5th pick that they are willing to give us this years 1st round pick, and 2nd round pick, along with next years 1st and 2023 1st round pick. Desperate to nab the guy they thought was the #2 QB on the board that fell to 5. However, if you truely feel that way, why not just offer it to New York for the #2 pick unless they refuse to move. Atlanta seems like a better trade candidate if you are going to give up that much, because you want another slot higher to guarantee your pick.

If say NE offered some crazy deal like that, yeah, I go ahead and lose Ja'Marr Chase.

You get the extra 2nd round pick this year, and you will have two 1st round picks the next two years.

Then at that point, depending on who is there, maybe Teven Jenkins, Darrisaw, whoever...i might consider flip flopping positions in the 1st and second.

I don't see McKitty as the same player as you. He seemed a decent TE who could catch and was a willing blocker. Good size and hands, not a ton of speed like Pitts, but I will be honest with you, I think you should start looking at Pitts as a WR, I don't think any team that uses him will wind up using him as a TE unless it is an emergency. His true value is in catching the ball and stretching the field. He loses play value every time he has to stay inside to block. I just think he is going to be a massive WR in this league.

I get your point about OLB deep in the draft, but we have so many late round LB'ers already, that I think I would prefer at least a potential talent boost with a guy a little higher drafted, like maybe 4th. But that is really about stocking depth at round 4, because I think our 1st 3 picks will address areas of need with the highest quality guy on the board. So regardless of where they go in rounds 4 through 7, I don't think it really matters. Best player available since everyone is going to be battling for a backup spot.

I agree - I mean, the trade down has to be worth it to miss out on Sewell/Chase/Pitts, IMO...unless the Bengals really feel that Slater/Darrisaw has better long-term potential. But still, the point remains IF they slide down, they need to make it worth it.

An extra 2nd and 3rd this year would ensure several things: Depth at OL and a potential addition at WR if they don't go with Chase/Pitts. Depth at both LB and/or DL. I agree they could go with a higher round LB - and while I don't see Collins falling out of R1 - it has happened often on the simulator...just depends on how the board breaks - but I would absolutely add him as he has the versatility to be moved around.

Agreed that Pitts is likely more used as a WR than a TE - but I won't be surprised at all if they at least line him up some on the OL. I think any team that drafts him will try to incorporate some traditional looks with him at TE, even if you know that 95% of the time he's running a route.

There's also still the possibility that they trade back 2 spots, or so, and still have a shot at Chase - which would mean being able to double dip in rounds 2 and 3 with any extra picks on OL while still adding a depth piece, or impact piece, to the defense.

Going to be really interesting once the draft starts to see where guys go. If ATL truly does opt for, let's say, Pitts or Chase or even Sewell and leaves a coveted QB at that 5 spot...Bengals are in a prime position to slide back, still land an impact starter and garner some extra picks. We'll see....that's not the Bengals MO at all.....

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I agree - I mean, the trade down has to be worth it to miss out on Sewell/Chase/Pitts, IMO...unless the Bengals really feel that Slater/Darrisaw has better long-term potential. But still, the point remains IF they slide down, they need to make it worth it.

An extra 2nd and 3rd this year would ensure several things: Depth at OL and a potential addition at WR if they don't go with Chase/Pitts. Depth at both LB and/or DL. I agree they could go with a higher round LB - and while I don't see Collins falling out of R1 - it has happened often on the simulator...just depends on how the board breaks - but I would absolutely add him as he has the versatility to be moved around.

Agreed that Pitts is likely more used as a WR than a TE - but I won't be surprised at all if they at least line him up some on the OL. I think any team that drafts him will try to incorporate some traditional looks with him at TE, even if you know that 95% of the time he's running a route.

There's also still the possibility that they trade back 2 spots, or so, and still have a shot at Chase - which would mean being able to double dip in rounds 2 and 3 with any extra picks on OL while still adding a depth piece, or impact piece, to the defense.

Going to be really interesting once the draft starts to see where guys go. If ATL truly does opt for, let's say, Pitts or Chase or even Sewell and leaves a coveted QB at that 5 spot...Bengals are in a prime position to slide back, still land an impact starter and garner some extra picks. We'll see....that's not the Bengals MO at all.....

Keep in mind, it is not in their MO, and it takes two to make a deal. The Bengals are going to value that pick, but does anyone else value the Bengals pick enough to really pay for it? Depends on who, how much and how far we are going to have to slide. If we are going from 5 to 20's, is the 1st round pick next year really worth it? I mean hell, if the team is picking in the 20's and they get a top 5 pick, they may be drafting in late 20's next year and we just lost out on an elite talent, settled for a very late 1st next year and maybe some slop this year.

Has to be a perfect storm for all that to come together, and they only have 10 minutes or so to negotiate that mess if the calls start flooding in once Atlanta passes on QB or they leave Justin Fields on the board.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Keep in mind, it is not in their MO, and it takes two to make a deal. The Bengals are going to value that pick, but does anyone else value the Bengals pick enough to really pay for it? Depends on who, how much and how far we are going to have to slide. If we are going from 5 to 20's, is the 1st round pick next year really worth it? I mean hell, if the team is picking in the 20's and they get a top 5 pick, they may be drafting in late 20's next year and we just lost out on an elite talent, settled for a very late 1st next year and maybe some slop this year.

Has to be a perfect storm for all that to come together, and they only have 10 minutes or so to negotiate that mess if the calls start flooding in once Atlanta passes on QB or they leave Justin Fields on the board.

Agreed. Takes 2 to make it work. We'll see. That's why I think the first 10 picks are going to be WILD with teams moving up to grab their QB - especially if a wild-card team enters the fray or a team goes in an unexpected direction.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Agreed. Takes 2 to make it work. We'll see. That's why I think the first 10 picks are going to be WILD with teams moving up to grab their QB - especially if a wild-card team enters the fray or a team goes in an unexpected direction.

They are saying the complete opposite on ESPN saying this may be one of the most boring 1st round trade years in recent memory.

 

[alf8478]

They are saying the complete opposite on ESPN saying this may be one of the most boring 1st round trade years in recent memory.

Every year the media and the insiders hype up the draft to be wild and unpredictable with lots of trades, and it never happens.
Its all manufactured drama.
The teams know what they are going to do and they know what the other teams are going to do.
There won't be a trade in the top 10.
(now I probably jinxed it).

 

[Cincyfan78]

They are saying the complete opposite on ESPN saying this may be one of the most boring 1st round trade years in recent memory.

I can see why they say that - but while the 1st few picks may go as planned...the wild portion starts at 4 with ATL....if they trade out, then it will have ripple effect down the rest of the draft.

If ATL stays and doesn't take a QB - then that puts the Bengals in a prime spot to make a move. Granted, this isn't likely based on history - but what if they do?

Or - does a team trade with Miami to jump Det at 7 to ensure they get their QB or risk DET going with someone like Fields if he's there?

Maybe "wild" wasn't the right word - but I do find a lot of intrigue. There's also a lot of questions as to WHICH QB's will go at 2 and 3 - those teams may know, but there's a lot of debate.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm an OSU hater, but I'm super interested in the Justin Fields storyline in this draft. I'm interested to know if all of these teams are really talking themselves out of him or if this has all been an elaborate smokescreen because teams want to sink his stock a little in an effort to grab him. I think Fields has been unfairly judged based on some uneven performances this past year - And I think a lot of that can be attributed to the f'd up COVID schedule. As a comparison, I would say Trevor Lawrence had a few mixed performances as well (and did miss time due to COVID), but it hasn't lowered many opinions of him.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I'm an OSU hater, but I'm super interested in the Justin Fields storyline in this draft. I'm interested to know if all of these teams are really talking themselves out of him or if this has all been an elaborate smokescreen because teams want to sink his stock a little in an effort to grab him. I think Fields has been unfairly judged based on some uneven performances this past year - And I think a lot of that can be attributed to the f'd up COVID schedule. As a comparison, I would say Trevor Lawrence had a few mixed performances as well (and did miss time due to COVID), but it hasn't lowered many opinions of him.

I 100% agree. I hadn't even heard of Wilson before the pro-days. Now all of a sudden, one across his body throw deep down field netted him the #2 pick. Fields proved it week in and week out. He was a competitor. Granted, he had a couple sub par games, but for the most part, he made the Buckeyes what they were. Plus, he is one tough son of a bitch to take a hit like that, and still finish the game with off the chart numbers against Clemson.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think in the case of Lawrence there's more tape and less uneveness. I mean, the guy started for 3 straight years and won 2 natty's to go along with it.

Fields couldn't beat out Fromme(sp?) from GA and transferred...his 1st year he was great, but his second year with more tape on him, he struggled at times.

The COVID year may have had some to do with that, but there's less total film on Fields, so I think it's fair to have some concerns when compared to Lawrence.

 

[futballiscool]

I'm an OSU hater, but I'm super interested in the Justin Fields storyline in this draft. I'm interested to know if all of these teams are really talking themselves out of him or if this has all been an elaborate smokescreen because teams want to sink his stock a little in an effort to grab him. I think Fields has been unfairly judged based on some uneven performances this past year - And I think a lot of that can be attributed to the f'd up COVID schedule. As a comparison, I would say Trevor Lawrence had a few mixed performances as well (and did miss time due to COVID), but it hasn't lowered many opinions of him.

I don't see him sliding outside of the top 10

 

[alf8478]

Every year the media and the insiders hype up the draft to be wild and unpredictable with lots of trades, and it never happens.
Its all manufactured drama.
The teams know what they are going to do and they know what the other teams are going to do.
There won't be a trade in the top 10.
(now I probably jinxed it).

I was close, first trade at #10

 

[cincygrad]

I really hate when people say, "X team drafted this guy.... Guess his career is over."

But, going to Chicago to be the QB feels like one of those situations. I probably started paying attention to the NFL as a kid in the early 80s. In my lifetime, I can't think of a single QB that has played for Chicago that I would rate as higher than "good but flawed" "downright average" or "talented but a huge disappointment."

 

[Cincyfan78]

I really hate when people say, "X team drafted this guy.... Guess his career is over."

But, going to Chicago to be the QB feels like one of those situations. I probably started paying attention to the NFL as a kid in the early 80s. In my lifetime, I can't think of a single QB that has played for Chicago that I would rate as higher than "good but flawed" "downright average" or "talented but a huge disappointment."

And, I mean - he's going to sit for years behind Dalton....

/sarcasm

 

[DanBengalfan]

you want some Cayenne Peppa on that Chicago style hotdog?