Eagles or Field - Who Wins Super Bowl

[Dr. Strangelove]

No matter how good a team is, I will always vote the field. So much luck and timing go into winning a championship but the Eagles have as good a shot as anyone. But they can be beat as we all saw with Washington. Even the 18-0 Patriots lost to Eli and the Gmen. It all depends on the match-ups, who's hot and who's healthy and who plays the best on any given Sunday (or Saturday). Niners biggest threat to them in the NFC, even with Purdy and Chiefs, Bengals, Bills all could beat Philly.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

538 said Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election in a landslide. Why the fuck does anyone care about the sports opinion of Nate Silver, a dude who was never able to make a middle school sports team.

Surely you understand how probability works, right? 538 was actually doing better than some models at the time for giving Trump any kind of reasonable chance to win the election.

Similarly, upsets happen in the NFL even if one team is obviously better/favored than another one.

Before Politics, Silver was a Baseball guy and is the guy behind PECOTA's system, IIRC. Silver himself is ironically a dogshit analyst, but his models perform well.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I'm sticking with week to week league.
Shit can change on a dime

This-

Defending SB champs can barely eek out a win. This league is about depth.

 

[jarntt]

Didn't Washington beat them?

I heard the Eagles lost on purpose because it was better for them in the long run. No one could actual beat the Eagles any other way

 

[Coily1]

I heard the Eagles lost on purpose because it was better for them in the long run. No one could actual beat the Eagles any other way

Could be. Hard to believe any decent team loses to the Commanders unless they're trying to secure a better draft position or massively bet against themselves, on a sports book.

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

I heard the Eagles lost on purpose because it was better for them in the long run. No one could actual beat the Eagles any other way

I heard injuries could derail them.

 

[UK Cowboy]

Eagles are that level of dominant.

Largest point differential in the league. Only team to have not lost on the road yet *knock on wood*. Of the two ams they have played this year with a winning record they have outscored them 178-96 which means they are outscoring teams with a winning record by an average of 13.7 PPG in those matchup.

Planet Delusional

 

[UK Cowboy]

Let's be generous.

85% chance they beat the Cowboys or whoever in the divisional round.

If they do that, 80% chance they win the conference title.

If they do that, 60% chance they win the Super Bowl.

That comes out to 40%.

I'd say they're the favorite, but I'd still take the field.

85%? They had a close game against Dallas in Philly with Cooper Rush at QB. Try again

 

[UK Cowboy]

I remember how good the Cowboys looked when Dak and Zeke first came around. I also remember how good the Ravens looked with Lamar Jackson came around. In the Ravens case, better than the Eagles this year.

Too many good teams to not just take the field.

Hurts is making $1.7 million this year. According to Sportrac, if the Eagles signed him long term tomorrow it would cost them $46 million per. They are $5 million under the cap. They better get it done this year. They are gonna have to start parting ways with good players soon. And they don't draft nearly as well as Dallas which is the only way to replace all that lost talent

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Hurts is making $1.7 million this year. According to Sportrac, if the Eagles signed him long term tomorrow it would cost them $46 million per. They are $5 million under the cap. They better get it done this year. They are gonna have to start parting ways with good players soon. And they don't draft nearly as well as Dallas which is the only way to replace all that lost talent

actually I think it will cost over 50 mil per.
Watson & Murray were in the 46's
Wilson in the 48's
Rodgers over 50.
I dont see Hurts going lower than any of these others. & it will be over a quarter billion dollars.

 

[jarntt]

Hurts is making $1.7 million this year. According to Sportrac, if the Eagles signed him long term tomorrow it would cost them $46 million per. They are $5 million under the cap. They better get it done this year. They are gonna have to start parting ways with good players soon. And they don't draft nearly as well as Dallas which is the only way to replace all that lost talent

He is under contract for 2023 at a low price as well and the first year of his deal if he is resigned will have a low cap hit so I’d say they have a few years before they feel the hit from any deal. They do have a bunch of free agents next year. But Part of the problem is some of those fake year contracts Howie gave out to force the team under the cap are hitting. For example Brooks is a free agent but still has $10M in dead money because of how Howie backloaded the contract and I think that weird Cox dead money starts to kick in next year or maybe it’s 2024.

 

[UK Cowboy]

He is under contract for 2023 at a low price as well and the first year of his deal if he is resigned will have a low cap hit so I’d say they have a few years before they feel the hit from any deal. They do have a bunch of free agents next year. But Part of the problem is some of those fake year contracts Howie gave out to force the team under the cap are hitting. For example Brooks is a free agent but still has $10M in dead money because of how Howie backloaded the contract and I think that weird Cox dead money starts to kick in next year or maybe it’s 2024.

Thing is, they will need to redo him next year or be looking at a Dak situation. The closer he gets to FA, the more he will cost. As the Cowboys learned dearly

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Thing is, they will need to redo him next year or be looking at a Dak situation. The closer he gets to FA, the more he will cost. As the Cowboys learned dearly

I guess I am the only one that liked the way Daks situation turned out.

 

[wilwhite]

85%? They had a close game against Dallas in Philly with Cooper Rush at QB. Try again

I said I was being generous. (And Dallas hasn't won a road playoff game in Dak's lifetime.)

 

[ROMOTOOWENS]

Last road playoff win - Alvin Harper SF game 92 ??????????

 

[Ojb81]

I can smell it coming a mile away. No way the Eagles win the SB, at least not this season. Could they actually make it to the big game?? Absolutely! But yeah, I can easily see them going into a playoff game where they're a heavy favorite, #1 seed and all that, but they get punched in the mouth early, and spend the better part of the first three quarters trying to regain their footing while the opponent plays with more and more confidence as the game progresses. The Eagles dont have as many bounces go their way as the other team does, and with the game tight near the end, Hurts cant make the plays needed to steal the victory, and to everyone's shock, their season ends without that trophy. And then some other team like Dallas or San Fran has a much easier path to the SB. Happens all the time in the NFL

 

[jarntt]

85%? They had a close game against Dallas in Philly with Cooper Rush at QB. Try again

Yeah, 85% kind of ridiculous, but even if you lower his number to about 65% which is probably what I would guess for a home playoff game (honestly could even be 70% with our recent injuries and how well they are playing?) because they will even be the favorite in Dallas next week, the Math says bet the field.

 

[jarntt]

I said I was being generous. (And Dallas hasn't won a road playoff game in Dak's lifetime.)

 

[fightinfunbags]

The mindset of a winner vs a me first guy.

 

[jarntt]