Detroit Tigers Ongoing 2016 Thread

[Howie115]

Against the powerhouse arms of Hector Santiago, J.T. Chargois, Alex Wimmers and Brandon Kintzler, The Tigers "Big Four" (Kinsler, Cabrera, V-Mart, J.D.) go 2-for-16 (2 singles by JD) with 0 RBI and 10 LOB.

Again, consistently inconsistent.

 

[burfboy]

Toronto now has 80 as well. It's not the math, it's a gut feeling about this Tiger team. I'm calling series wins against the Twins and Braves (4 wins) and no better than 5-5 in their games against Cleveland and KC. The pitchers on CLE and KC have owned us all year. That gives the Tigers 87 wins, which won't be enough.

The only way I see the Tigers winning 88 or 89 games is if the hitters go on a home run tear. Look at the percentage of runs this team scores via the home run. It's among the highest in team history. If they don't hit homers, they usually don't score enough to win.

Of course, I hope I am wrong, and will be the first to say so (unlike doug). I'd rather be wrong and the Tigers get into the postseason than be right and gloat to a few people here.

It is going to be very interesting. The one thing that is going to be impossible to predict is when all those American League east teams play each other down the stretch. The other thing in the Tigers favor is the Blue Jays are out on the West Coast playing the angels and the Mariners. Of course the Tigers must play better again the Indians.

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

Toronto now has 80 as well. It's not the math, it's a gut feeling about this Tiger team. I'm calling series wins against the Twins and Braves (4 wins) and no better than 5-5 in their games against Cleveland and KC. The pitchers on CLE and KC have owned us all year. That gives the Tigers 87 wins, which won't be enough.

The only way I see the Tigers winning 88 or 89 games is if the hitters go on a home run tear. Look at the percentage of runs this team scores via the home run. It's among the highest in team history. If they don't hit homers, they usually don't score enough to win.

Of course, I hope I am wrong, and will be the first to say so (unlike doug). I'd rather be wrong and the Tigers get into the postseason than be right and gloat to a few people here.

That is the problem with this offense. They rely on homers way too much. They don't hit up the gaps like they used to and some of the lesser hitters try the approach of swinging at first pitch strikes. Not to mention they don't time these pitches well anymore if they are up in the zone or right down the middle. Guys like V-Mart is missing meatballs for instance and popping out instead.

 

[burfboy]

Detroit Tigers
RHP Michael Fulmer (10-6, 2.76 ERA)
Cleveland Indians
RHP Corey Kluber (16-9, 3.05 ERA)
GAME NOTES
--If the Tigers are going to make a late push to catch the Indians in the American League Central, now is the time. Detroit trails Cleveland by six games in the division. The teams have seven games left against each other in the final weeks of the season, starting with this three-game set at Progressive Field. Each team has 16 games left overall in the regular season.
--The Tigers are much closer in the wild card chase. They trail Baltimore and Toronto by two games. Detroit is tied with Seattle in the race, with the New York Yankees close behind.
--It's been mostly misery for the Tigers against the Indians so far this season. Detroit is just 1-11 against Cleveland in 2016. The Tigers have been outscored 79-36 in the season series. The teams haven't met since early July.
--Michael Fulmer has had a brilliant rookie season, but he has not been the winning pitcher of record since Aug. 14. Last time out, Fulmer gave up two runs in seven innings against Baltimore.
--Corey Kluber has rebounded from a relatively slow start to get involved in the Cy Young conversation. He's 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA in his last nine starts.

 

[broncosmitty]

That is the problem with this offense. They rely on homers way too much. They don't hit up the gaps like they used to and some of the lesser hitters try the approach of swinging at first pitch strikes. Not to mention they don't time these pitches well anymore if they are up in the zone or right down the middle. Guys like V-Mart is missing meatballs for instance and popping out instead.

If we only had more hitters like Iggy.

Hard to rely on what you're incapable of.

 

[Iffster]

To magnify the inconsistent offense, Detroit is second in the AL in team BA...but ninth in runs scored.

As far as HR...they're 7th in the league.

 

[broncosmitty]

They can't run the bases. (Victor really hurts in this area. Should run for him
More often imo. He's our Cholesterol. But if he's the worst base runner on the team it isn't in a landslide victory.)

I'll take all the homers I can get.

 

[Howie115]

To magnify the inconsistent offense, Detroit is second in the AL in team BA...but ninth in runs scored.

As far as HR...they're 7th in the league.

Too many players who can't score from second on a single, or from first on a double. And way too many players thrown out on the bases this year. Leading base stealer is Cameron Maybin with 15. They don't create shit on the bases.

As far as needing the home run, FS Detroit put up a stat a few weeks ago showing the percent of Tigers runs scoring as part of a home run. I don't remember it exactly, but it was over 40%. There were only two other Tiger teams in history at that threshold.

 

[Iffster]

If we only had more hitters like Iggy.

Hard to rely on what you're incapable of.

Iggy, in my mind, is a real question mark, this off season. Granted he gives the team needed defense on the left side (although his defensive work has gone down this season - according to Fangraphs). When Iglesias was hitting his empty .300, he was a nice piece to point too. But now, a good but not great fielder, hitting under .250, is not such a shiny bobble. Add in the fact that year two arbitration will push his salary to around $4-5mil....and he becomes even less exciting. At this point, trading him is not going to bring a major return, unless he is part of a larger package. Considering he has an injury history....he might get Detroit a good relief pitcher from a team that can afford to have a defense-first SS. IMO....he might stay, just to protect Castellanos.

 

[broncosmitty]

Iggy, in my mind, is a real question mark, this off season. Granted he gives the team needed defense on the left side (although his defensive work has gone down this season - according to Fangraphs). When Iglesias was hitting his empty .300, he was a nice piece to point too. But now, a good but not great fielder, hitting under .250, is not such a shiny bobble. Add in the fact that year two arbitration will push his salary to around $4-5mil....and he becomes even less exciting. At this point, trading him is not going to bring a major return, unless he is part of a larger package. Considering he has an injury history....he might get Detroit a good relief pitcher from a team that can afford to have a defense-first SS. IMO....he might stay, just to protect Castellanos.

Hard to imagine him not around next year.

Like you said, he can't bring much in return on a trade.

The guy who I assume will be traded in the off season is JD. Big returns and difficult to see Mr. I finding a way to add another $100million deal. maybe they could package Iggy in with him?

 

[Howie115]

At this point, trading him is not going to bring a major return, unless he is part of a larger package. Considering he has an injury history....he might get Detroit a good relief pitcher from a team that can afford to have a defense-first SS. IMO....he might stay, just to protect Castellanos.

I could live with another season of Erick Aybar (he's 32) and (gag) Andrew Romine if it meant getting a decent relief arm for Iglesias. Of course, given the Tigers recent history of acquiring relievers..... 'nuff said.

 

[broncosmitty]

Too many players who can't score from second on a single, or from first on a double. And way too many players thrown out on the bases this year. Leading base stealer is Cameron Maybin with 15. They don't create shit on the bases.

As far as needing the home run, FS Detroit put up a stat a few weeks ago showing the percent of Tigers runs scoring as part of a home run. I don't remember it exactly, but it was over 40%. There were only two other Tiger teams in history at that threshold.

It's sad when the announcers (one of the various ten we have this year) applaud guys going from first to third on balls that are obvious hits off the bat.

But that's the state of the base running.

And Dave Clark needed to be fired last year. Make Geno retire so DC can be bench coach. Or fire him. But he can't be the third base coach.

 

[Howie115]

The guy who I assume will be traded in the off season is JD. Big returns and difficult to see Mr. I finding a way to add another $100million deal. maybe they could package Iggy in with him?

J.D. Martinez is currently a bargain at $9.25 mill a season. If we keep him around in 2017 and don't extend his deal, he's for sure gone in the following offseason and we'd get zippo for him.

 

[Howie115]

Really, for a lineup with Kinsler, Cabrera, V-mart, Upton, a .300+ Cameron Maybin and J.D. Martinez (even given the time he missed) to be NINTH in the league in runs scored.... that is just inexcusable.

 

[broncosmitty]

J.D. Martinez is currently a bargain at $9.25 mill a season. If we keep him around in 2017 and don't extend his deal, he's for sure gone in the following offseason and we'd get zippo for him.

I think they almost HAVE to deal him.

 

[burfboy]

The Tigers have made it a long way this year with the starting rotation full of injuries and 3 rookie starters. No one foresaw the injuries but they have hung in there. Missing JD for an extended has hurt and without Nick in the order there is a big hole in the order. They are still in this race and have as much chance as any team to get a wild card spot.

 

[Lions=TeHsUcKs]

Too many players who can't score from second on a single, or from first on a double. And way too many players thrown out on the bases this year. Leading base stealer is Cameron Maybin with 15. They don't create shit on the bases.

As far as needing the home run, FS Detroit put up a stat a few weeks ago showing the percent of Tigers runs scoring as part of a home run. I don't remember it exactly, but it was over 40%. There were only two other Tiger teams in history at that threshold.

That is the point, they can't run the bases for shit and it doesn't help with all the pickoffs either(Looking at you Kinsler). That seems to have been an issue ever since Ausmus has taken over. Too many mistakes on the bases. Also guys like V-Mart are becoming a total liability. We all knew he cannot run, but if he is just going to be a slap hitter, he is useless. As for Iggy, no one expected him to be a good bat but he has been even below his own par lately. I will give him a pass since he has been a good fielding SS this season from every analytical standpoint. I don't mind Romine either, but tbh we needed a guy at 3rd whom can hit. Aybar and Tits have both sucked and Romine has been the best of the three lately. Finally Tyler Collins sucks, I really thought he would turn it on this part of the season but he has fizzled completely after that somewhat hot start after being called up again. Now even guys whom were scorching(JD) are doing nothing now at the plate. Huge problem. Pitching, believe or not, has carried many of the games.

 

[Iffster]

JD's status after 2017?
Detroit will have the money to resign him (if desired) as some big contracts end after that season. The contracts of Sanchez, Pelfrey, Kinsler, Lowe, as well as Maybin and F. Rod (if the last two's 2017 options are picked up) all expire after '17 season. And, of course, Upton can opt out of his contract! hahahahahaha
I'd bet Detroit explores an extension for JD, just to test his interest in staying in Detroit? If he balks, they'd have to decide on a course to pursue...trade now or trade deadline or free agent (draft pick?) BTW...JD will make $11.75 next year according to Cot's.

 

[burfboy]

Detroit Tigers

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Cameron Maybin, CF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. J.D. Martinez, RF

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Erick Aybar, SS

8. James McCann, C

9. Andrew Romine, 3B

Pitching: RHP Michael Fulmer (10-6, 2.76 ERA)

Bench: OF Tyler Collins, OF Steven Moya, IF/OF JaCoby Jones, SS Dixon Machado, SS Jose Iglesias, 3B Casey McGehee, C Jarrod Saltalmacchia, C John Hicks.

Cleveland Indians

RHP Corey Kluber (16-9, 3.05 ERA)

 

[burfboy]

Ausmus said the Tigers have mapped out a pitching plan from now until the end of the season, although it's written in pencil because of the uncertainty about the fifth starter.

OPTION 1:

Tuesday: Boyd

Wednesday: Fulmer (normal rest)

Thursday: Verlander (normal rest)

OPTION 2:

Tuesday: Boyd OR Zimm/Sanchez

Wednesday: Zimm/Sanchez OR Boyd

Thursday: Fulmer (5 days rest)

OPTION 3:

Tuesday: Boyd OR Zimm/Sanchez

Wednesday: Zimm/Sanchez OR Boyd

Thursday: Verlander (normal rest)


They can't skip Fulmer any more