Derek DFA

[JohnU]

We basically swapped a switch hitter for Skippy. Robinson DFA ... we will lose the guy, in case you care.

 

[redsfan03]

That was a dumb move. Robinson isn't great but he isn't horrible. His switch hitting ability, plus defense, and decent speed helped.

 

[WvuDieHard]

The Reds front office isn't exactly a group of rocket scientists. After all, they let DustMop mismanage a team that should have been in a World Series for at least 2 years running.

 

[Redsfan1507]

There is still a pervasive "old school" talent evaluation process in MLB, even in the days of sabermetrics. Chris Heisey is an example. He was a 17 round pick- not a token afterthought, but he'll never get first option over a higher draft pick, or a higher contract veteran with similar or better upside, because the percieved ceiling doesn't equate. It could be argued the results didnt match the formula in the case of Heisey v. Stubbs, but the same math will be repeated with Hamilton.

Jocketty left Oakland when Beane and Bill James theory came into vogue. Jocketty's history shows he has had good success at using the old methods to produce winners, but it's a philosophy that simultaneously requires a very productive farm to sell off regular domestic talent for veterans. He'll give bonus babies every opportunity to show return on investment, but lesser picks are all susceptible to be viewed as short term depth.

I tend to subscribe to a combination of the two methodologies- I don't believe a low contact hitter is likely to become an OBP god, even if his metrics suggested he was a high pick. The metal bats used in ametuer play and PED's have clouded that draft methodology anyway. It still takes a scout that can look at a player in person, factor in the competition he's performed under, in addition to his physical metrics, and database analysis.

Robinson could play D, and run. That leaves 3 other old school "tools" underwhelmed. Schumaker may only have 1-2 tools- he can hit for moderate average and he's inf/of flexible at an acceptable D rate, but he has MLB experience, and that may be the deciding factor.

Robinson may be combined with another mid level prospect for a higher ceiling prospect, or a reconstruction reliever project. OF's are common, so replacing him shpuldnt be hard. We'll see.

 

[JohnU]

Schumaker may only have 1-2 tools- he can hit for moderate average and he's inf/of flexible at an acceptable D rate, but he has MLB experience, and that may be the deciding factor.

There's a lot to this. The problem with Robinson was that he didn't steal any bases, but then again Dusty only let Mike Leake steal anything.

Replacing Robinson isn't the problem; replacing him with Skippy is the problem. The U-Haul for left fielders in Cincinnati is still pretty crowded.

And we still ain't found one who could hit.

Rosecrans reports that Walt has had contact with Beltran's agent, who is the same guy who represents Votto.

Beltran is 36, wants 3 years and has bad knees. He's a former Cardinal. If he can hit, he's a fix in LF and the cleanup spot. Being it's his last contract, I think it's high risk, sketchy reward.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You know what high priced free agents are ? For those that can afford them, they are coverup for being lousy at raising better crops on the farm. Sometimes, they are the last piece of the puzzle, but most times they are just a way to sell higher priced tickets.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Here's my laugher about LF...it's THE OF position that can be filled with a guy with no range, no arm and minimal ability to field. All they have to do is hit and not get corked in the head with the ball. So far, the Reds have found a few guys that fill that bill for half a season every few years. The REAL problem is, they sign them to extensions that expose their ability to find the law of averages, which says that if they were good enough to sign for more than one year, done of their previous teams would have already done that..and if they have, how did the player lose his job there ? If you don't learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Robinson came to the Reds with only one option year left. I looked at the transaction dates and the Reds burned his last option year in August when they activated Ludwick. That made him the obvious choice to DFA. The Reds have up to ten days to decide what to do with him. If no one claims him off waivers, the Reds will probably sign him back to a minor league deal.

The deadline for offering arbitration is Dec.2 I think, I'm curious to see if the Reds tender offers to Heisey and Paul. I think one of them will be tendered, not so sure both will with the Schumaker signing.

 

[JohnU]

Paul or Heisey ... Heisey is the guy I keep. Plays better defense. Otherwise, no clue.

I think Frazier might have been ticketed for LF until he proved he could play 3B well enough -- in my opinion -- to be a Gold Glover.

So that's not going to change.

I still think Walt is going to pull the trigger on a deal that will include Bailey and possibly Hanigan.

There still isn't much depth, and I am not sure the Reds can beat out St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee next year. They might still win 90 games.

Replacing Bailey with Cingrani is tricky. Replacing Bronson with Chapman is automatic.

I hate to trade MLB seasoned rotation guys still in their prime for left fielders, but I don't think Skippy is the guy we really want there. Maybe Ludwick really did recover from his shoulder injury. Tooth Fairy, grab a bat!

 

[Redsfan1507]

In not worried about Milwaukee... they can't pitch, or play D. They are the 2007 Reds.

The Pirates are thinner than you might think. Their recent weakness- the impressive young pitching falling off late in the season, still hurt them some, and Burnett may not be back... like Arroyo leaving the Reds, the Pirates youth with either step up, or be exposed... and these days 200 IP from a young arm isn't that common, and the frequency of arm ailments the following year is high enough to notice. The Pirates INF defense is bad. Their better D comes from the MVP in Cf and a past prime catcher. They had a patchwork bullpen that could easily unravel. They fo have a revitalized fan base and s manager that practices accountability. If they add a piece, stay healthy and hungry, they could do well...like the Reds and about 6 other teams looking for a wildcard berth.

The Cardinals, are another story. They have the patent on a farm formula and signing vets that just keep hitting, an endless pitching staff of young arms, and a couple of hitters they have trouble finding positions for. That's pretty good insurance.

 

[JohnU]

St. Louie could go after Robby Cano if they want.
They might deal Matt Adams.
Honestly, they need to consider the catching situation eventually. Molina isn't superhuman.
They have pieces to trade.

I agree on the Parrots. They need to do it twice, even if they almost really did do it twice.

Milwaukee is the team that can make or break itself this winter.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

It's being reported the Reds non tendered Xavier Paul. Fairly predictable with the Schumaker signing. They're both lefties that can't hit a loogy. The move clears a roster spot for Parra.

If tomorrow was Opening Day, the OF would be Bruce, Ludwick, Schumaker, Heisey, and Hamilton. I'd don't see them signing another FA OF, but I do think a trade is coming. Adding another OF would probably punch Hamilton's ticket for Louisville barring one of the other four current OF's being involved in the trade.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Hanigan went to the Rays in a 3 team deal for a minor league LHSP- he got a 1 game cup of coffee with the D-Backs, but was a sub 3.00 ERA SP in AA in 2013. 2nd round pick in 2009.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Wow Hanny was hurt most of the year so his average was a little misleading. I think Arizona got a hell of a deal right there. Once again we are left sucking hind tit.

 

[JohnU]

The lefty the Reds got -- Holmberg -- was the 6th or 7th best prospect in the DBack system, pitched at Mobile last year, not a great strikeout guy but has fair control. 150-some innings so he could be on track to make the rotation mix in 2014.

So far, all I see is we got Skippy to play instead of Paul and Pena to catch instead of Hanigan.

I am not all that thrilled with this but it seems dumping contracts is as big a part of this as anything.

Dex Fowler went from Colorado to Houston. Just sayin'.

So far, the dartboard logic is to trade Phillips to the Yankees, force Cano to take a cut and modify the FA market.