Deadline Strategy

[calsnowskier]

Why the heck did FZ pull this trade? I don't care if the PTBNL is cash, this one is absolutely ridiculous. Mathias could be had on the waiver wire at least a couple times in the past year. Pollock, as other have pointed out, is horrible.

I wonder what DiPoto has on FZ that he pulls out ocassionally to make him do stupid trades with Seattle?

I wonder if that trade came about as a side effect of bigger Teoscar talks. Nothing came of a potential Teoscar trade, but they came together on a register/impulse buy instead.

 

[msgkings322]

But it is pointless. Bryce Johnson could hit for similar numbers to Pollock's 2023 production.

 

[LHG]

I wonder if that trade came about as a side effect of bigger Teoscar talks. Nothing came of a potential Teoscar trade, but they came together on a register/impulse buy instead.

Then someone needs to be hired to talk FZ down from impulse buys.

 

[calsnowskier]

Then someone needs to be hired to talk FZ down from impulse buys.

I picture this as how it went down…

FZ is leaving the GM office in Seattle and Pollock is sitting in the waiting room. FZ looks over and sees him, turns him over once, scratches his chin and asks “How much for this”? The Seattle GM says “Him? We are pals. Buy me lunch in AZ next year, and you can take him and that over there as well” (he nods to Mathias who happens to be at the vending machine by the door).

FZ shrugs and says “OK. Have them shipped to SF. Actually, ship that to Sacto.”

FZ continues out of the office and heads back to SF.

 

[tzill]

You may be right here. It does seem the main impact players that moved were pitchers, and that's our strength and they clearly are leaning into the bullpen centric model.

But were any of the bats that moved good fits for us and could we have gotten them? Genuinely curious, is there a list somewhere?

I think I covered it in post 211

 

[tzill]

Seems like we are doing it wrong (Pollock doesn't belong on an ML roster anymore).

FZ disagrees.

 

[tzill]

The Pollock move is inexplicable but also harmless as long as he's sent down when their injured OFs get back (Yaz, Haniger, etc)

Its a low risk move. If we end up DFAing Pollock, no harm. In the interim, we have health insurance for Haniger and Yaz. Unless you believe Heliot is a better option.

 

[msgkings322]

I think I covered it in post 211

Missed that, thanks. Yeah not many impact bats moved for anyone. Oh well.

 

[msgkings322]

Its a low risk move. If we end up DFAing Pollock, no harm. In the interim, we have health insurance for Haniger and Yaz. Unless you believe Heliot is a better option.

I do believe Ramos is better yes. If Ramos is a bust his numbers will resemble Pollock's. If he's better than that his numbers will be better.

 

[msgkings322]

FZ disagrees.

FZ has proven often to not be infallible

 

[tzill]

Yes he did, that's my point. If they are thinking he's another 2010 Bumgarner I think they're mistaken

I mean, we are all spitballing here, but I think FZ inquired about Lorenzen and Cease and found the price too much. I'm guessing we'd have to give up either Harrison, Bailey, or Luciano. I don't think Bart and Matos would've gotten it done. That's when, if you're FZ, you hang up.

 

[tzill]

But it is pointless. Bryce Johnson could hit for similar numbers to Pollock's 2023 production.

The difference, of course is that Pollock was really good a couple of years ago. Bryce was not. That's the gamble FZ is taking. Low risk, possible small reward.

 

[msgkings322]

I mean, we are all spitballing here, but I think FZ inquired about Lorenzen and Cease and found the price too much. I'm guessing we'd have to give up either Harrison, Bailey, or Luciano. I don't think Bart and Matos would've gotten it done. That's when, if you're FZ, you hang up.

Right, none of us know how the convos went and I agree if that was the cost, not worth it.

I've talked myself into believing the pitching is not an area of need, but an area of want. But we do NEED better hitting and that has to come from guys getting healthy and existing guys simply playing better.

 

[calsnowskier]

I mean, we are all spitballing here, but I think FZ inquired about Lorenzen and Cease and found the price too much. I'm guessing we'd have to give up either Harrison, Bailey, or Luciano. I don't think Bart and Matos would've gotten it done. That's when, if you're FZ, you hang up.

I suspect Bailey is/was untouchable. Harrison and Luciano were likely only available for the BIG prizes (Shohei, Soto, (???))…

 

[tzill]

I do believe Ramos is better yes. If Ramos is a bust his numbers will resemble Pollock's. If he's better than that his numbers will be better.

But what if the change of scenery and the playoff push get us a dead cat bounce from Pollock. These things happen: Scutaro, Ross, Renteria.

Not saying it will, just that it could. Also, Ramos in SF means he's not playing every day.

 

[LHG]

The difference, of course is that Pollock was really good a couple of years ago. Bryce was not. That's the gamble FZ is taking. Low risk, possible small reward.

That would be great if this was 2021. Its not.

 

[tzill]

Right, none of us know how the convos went and I agree if that was the cost, not worth it.

I've talked myself into believing the pitching is not an area of need, but an area of want. But we do NEED better hitting and that has to come from guys getting healthy and existing guys simply playing better.

Well, as disappointed as I can get during the games (ahem), the truth is that we had a decent offense Apr/May/June. July sucked ass. Bailey/Wade/Tyro/Craw/Davis/Haniger/Yaz/Conforto/Joc is a decent team that should score 4-5 runs a game. Guess we'll see.

 

[tzill]

So, I took a quick look at the best 2023 hitters. I sorted by OPS to see how many were actually "getable." This is subjective, and I made some assumptions:
1. If the hitter is on a contending team, he wasn't getable
2. I only looked at qualified players, i.e. hitters with at least 310 ABs
3. I limited my dive to .800+ OPS
4. My loose definition of "contending" was above .500 plus SD and CLE

Here's what I found, sorted by OPS

1. Robert, CWS .871
2. Arenado, STL .832
3. Suwinski, PIT .831
4. Goldschmidt, STL .825
5. McMahon, COL .822
6. Alonso, NYM .819
7. Gorman, STL .819
8. Rooker, OAK .813

Robert was never on the table per the White Sox. They were taking calls on everyone EXCEPT him.

Arenado was out there, he's 32 and due $35M, $32M, $27M. Full no trade clause. Would not have been cheap

Suwinski is 24 and having a nice second year in the bigs. He's part of PITs future.

Goldy is 35 and gets $22M next year. Full no trade. Would mean moving LWJ to the OF (or trading him back)

McMahon is 28 and getting $12/12/16/16 over the next four. Quality guy who can play 2b and 3b having a nice year but inflated by Coors.

Alonso is 28 and would be a rental. Would move LWJ to the OF or to NY in the trade.

Gorman is 23 and part of the future in STL. They aren't trading him

Rooker is 28 and a rental. Would have been an upgrade in the OF.


So, in sum, there wasn't much to trade for that was a clear upgrade. Arenado probably not worth what he'd cost -- both in prospects and future payroll. Goldy isn't a huge upgrade over LWJ at this point in his career (LWJ is .819). McMahon would've been expensive and suspect outside of Coors. Alonso would be a wash with LWJ. Rooker would've been a good get but the A'ss don't trade with us.

FZ did the right thing.

 

[LHG]

So, I took a quick look at the best 2023 hitters. I sorted by OPS to see how many were actually "getable." This is subjective, and I made some assumptions:
1. If the hitter is on a contending team, he wasn't getable
2. I only looked at qualified players, i.e. hitters with at least 310 ABs
3. I limited my dive to .800+ OPS
4. My loose definition of "contending" was above .500 plus SD and CLE

Here's what I found, sorted by OPS

1. Robert, CWS .871
2. Arenado, STL .832
3. Suwinski, PIT .831
4. Goldschmidt, STL .825
5. McMahon, COL .822
6. Alonso, NYM .819
7. Gorman, STL .819
8. Rooker, OAK .813

Robert was never on the table per the White Sox. They were taking calls on everyone EXCEPT him.

Arenado was out there, he's 32 and due $35M, $32M, $27M. Full no trade clause. Would not have been cheap

Suwinski is 24 and having a nice second year in the bigs. He's part of PITs future.

Goldy is 35 and gets $22M next year. Full no trade. Would mean moving LWJ to the OF (or trading him back)

McMahon is 28 and getting $12/12/16/16 over the next four. Quality guy who can play 2b and 3b having a nice year but inflated by Coors.

Alonso is 28 and would be a rental. Would move LWJ to the OF or to NY in the trade.

Gorman is 23 and part of the future in STL. They aren't trading him

Rooker is 28 and a rental. Would have been an upgrade in the OF.


So, in sum, there wasn't much to trade for that was a clear upgrade. Arenado probably not worth what he'd cost -- both in prospects and future payroll. Goldy isn't a huge upgrade over LWJ at this point in his career (LWJ is .819). McMahon would've been expensive and suspect outside of Coors. Alonso would be a wash with LWJ. Rooker would've been a good get but the A'ss don't trade with us.

FZ did the right thing.

Nice analysis, thanks tzill. I don't know if Arenado would have been available to the Giants, even if FZ met the asking price. I heard rumors he was not going to go just anywhere and was only open to going to the Dodgers. Not sure if that is true but the cost was probably too high for the Giants, even if he was truly willing to waive his no trade clause for the team.
Not sure the Mets would have traded Alfonso either. Yeah, they shipped out both Scherzer and Verlander but they were mercenaries. Alfonso has been a cornerstone for that team. I think it would have taken a lot to pry him from the Mets.
I like Rooker but his numbers are a bit of smoke and mirrors. He was hot out of the gate this year but cooled off significantly in May and June. He did bounce back with a nice July so maybe he has made adjustments but I'm not sure about him yet. However, he would have definitely been an upgrade over Pollock.

If you expand this list to include any player with an OPS+ of 115 or better, you also get the following:
9. Noda, OAK 129
10. Nootbaar, StL 125 (Missed your 310 ABs by 27 but meets BBRefs qualifications)
11. Crawford, Sea 121
12. Thomas, Was 119
13. Nimmo, NYM 117
14. Lindor, NYM 115
15. McCutchen, Pit 115

Noda wouldn't be an improvement over Wade and he is also an A's player.
Nootbar would have been a decent pick up for the outfield. He started the year a bit slow and was on the IL for a bit but has heated up as of late. Would have cost a lot, though but would have freed up room in the Cardinals' crowded outfield.
Crawford would have been an interesting move. Replacing an aging Crawford for a younger Crawford. Also would have been very expensive.
Thomas is a young player that the Nationals seem intent to keep. Likely not available.
Nimmo would have been another nice player for the outfield but would have also been expensive. Unknown if he was even available.
Ditto Lindor.
McCutchen has expressed that he wants to finish his career with the Pirates and they seem to feel the same way. Not available.

 

[msgkings322]

Nice analysis, thanks tzill. I don't know if Arenado would have been available to the Giants, even if FZ met the asking price. I heard rumors he was not going to go just anywhere and was only open to going to the Dodgers. Not sure if that is true but the cost was probably too high for the Giants, even if he was truly willing to waive his no trade clause for the team.
Not sure the Mets would have traded Alfonso either. Yeah, they shipped out both Scherzer and Verlander but they were mercenaries. Alfonso has been a cornerstone for that team. I think it would have taken a lot to pry him from the Mets.
I like Rooker but his numbers are a bit of smoke and mirrors. He was hot out of the gate this year but cooled off significantly in May and June. He did bounce back with a nice July so maybe he has made adjustments but I'm not sure about him yet. However, he would have definitely been an upgrade over Pollock.

If you expand this list to include any player with an OPS+ of 115 or better, you also get the following:
9. Noda, OAK 129
10. Nootbaar, StL 125 (Missed your 310 ABs by 27 but meets BBRefs qualifications)
11. Crawford, Sea 121
12. Thomas, Was 119
13. Nimmo, NYM 117
14. Lindor, NYM 115
15. McCutchen, Pit 115

Noda wouldn't be an improvement over Wade and he is also an A's player.
Nootbar would have been a decent pick up for the outfield. He started the year a bit slow and was on the IL for a bit but has heated up as of late. Would have cost a lot, though but would have freed up room in the Cardinals' crowded outfield.
Crawford would have been an interesting move. Replacing an aging Crawford for a younger Crawford. Also would have been very expensive.
Thomas is a young player that the Nationals seem intent to keep. Likely not available.
Nimmo would have been another nice player for the outfield but would have also been expensive. Unknown if he was even available.
Ditto Lindor.
McCutchen has expressed that he wants to finish his career with the Pirates and they seem to feel the same way. Not available.

I mean, probably worth it to have a guy on the team named Nutbar