D-Backs acquire a "Left Fielder"

[SFGRTB]

Only because there is no DH in the NL.

I do not like this trade for the D-Backs. Let this be an indicator for what the LF market is like, Arizona gave up 2 of their top young players to get a home-run hitter with a career OPS of .768 and OBP of .299. Trumbo has actually regressed in terms of WAR the last 3 seasons, he's a 2.5 guy. Giants could get that out of Blanco, Perez and Pill for nothing.

Now do we get what Sabes is talking about? The LF market just isn't there unless you give up the farm. The D-Backs had an extra pitcher and extra outfielder to spare, but it's still a steep price.

D-Backs To Acquire Trumbo In Three-Team Trade With Angels, White Sox: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

[Arizona_Sting]

I'm with you. Don't like it.

 

[SFGRTB]

Also, Rajai Davis signed for $10 million with the Tigers. Get used to Blanco and JCP guys. Ain't a bad thing either, paying that much for Davis is just dumb.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Also, Rajai Davis signed for $10 million with the Tigers. Get used to Blanco and JCP guys. Ain't a bad thing either, paying that much for Davis is just dumb.

Maybe the best now is to save our powder for a mid-season move if we are in position. I'm OK with that for now. We were 23-15 in 2013 when Pagan pulled his hammy. If we play at that pace we will certainly be in contention when the time comes to make a move.

One last whine - the Phils signed Marlon Byrd for 2/16. He would have been cheap at 2/18 if that's what it took.

 

[Stokes1931]

I heard the Orioles have this guy, Perguero. Would he be worth a look?

 

[SFGRTB]

Maybe the best now is to save our powder for a mid-season move if we are in position. I'm OK with that for now. We were 23-15 in 2013 when Pagan pulled his hammy. If we play at that pace we will certainly be in contention when the time comes to make a move.

One last whine - the Phils signed Marlon Byrd for 2/16. He would have been cheap at 2/18 if that's what it took.

Agreed. In the words of Kuip, "LF didn't become a problem until CF became a problem". I can live Blanco and JCP and make a mid-season deal if we have to. The offseason still ain't over, but I wouldn't want the Giants to overpay for anyone just to make a move.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'm with you. Don't like it.

The homers will be nice, but at a steep price. I'm surprised they had to include Eaton in a deal.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I heard the Orioles have this guy, Perguero. Would he be worth a look?

You would not have fared well as a Ferengi.

 

[calsnowskier]

They gave up Eaton AND Skaggs in that deal????

Holy over-pays, Batman.

 

[tzill]

Only because there is no DH in the NL.

I do not like this trade for the D-Backs. Let this be an indicator for what the LF market is like, Arizona gave up 2 of their top young players to get a home-run hitter with a career OPS of .768 and OBP of .299. Trumbo has actually regressed in terms of WAR the last 3 seasons, he's a 2.5 guy. Giants could get that out of Blanco, Perez and Pill for nothing.

Now do we get what Sabes is talking about? The LF market just isn't there unless you give up the farm. The D-Backs had an extra pitcher and extra outfielder to spare, but it's still a steep price.

D-Backs To Acquire Trumbo In Three-Team Trade With Angels, White Sox: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

That's pretty much my take too. Interestingly, it takes the Backs out of contention for Tanaka as well. In addition, it takes them out of the OF market as well. Win/win.

 

[tzill]

Maybe the best now is to save our powder for a mid-season move if we are in position. I'm OK with that for now. We were 23-15 in 2013 when Pagan pulled his hammy. If we play at that pace we will certainly be in contention when the time comes to make a move.

One last whine - the Phils signed Marlon Byrd for 2/16. He would have been cheap at 2/18 if that's what it took.

Yeah, but you don't know if he'd have come here for that. Hitters tend to shy away from AT&T. What everyone is forgetting is what a good move Pence for 5/90 was. SabeySabes once again looking smarter than us.

 

[Kendal]

I'm still in for Corey Hart on a one year deal, but looking at what is happening, I bet he'll get overpaid as well.

 

[tzill]

I'm still in for Corey Hart on a one year deal, but looking at what is happening, I bet he'll get overpaid as well.

If Hart were available on a one year deal, he'd be a Giant.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Yeah, but you don't know if he'd have come here for that. Hitters tend to shy away from AT&T. What everyone is forgetting is what a good move Pence for 5/90 was. SabeySabes once again looking smarter than us.

Here's Byrd's 2013 home runs overlaid in ATT. He wouldn't lose much:

And re Pence, speak for yourself. LONG ago I had written MANY times that we should sign Pence for 5/70 or even 5/75, and was summarily dismissed by most if not all the regulars here. Now he signs for 5/90, and Sabes is a genius.

"I can have the clerk read the transcripts..."

 

[calsnowskier]

Here's Byrd's 2013 home runs overlaid in ATT. He wouldn't lose much:

And re Pence, speak for yourself. LONG ago I had written MANY times that we should sign Pence for 5/70 or even 5/75, and was summarily dismissed by most if not all the regulars here. Now he signs for 5/90, and Sabes is a genius.

"I can have the clerk read the transcripts..."

Mays, haven't you figured it out yet?

We don't know shit about baseball. But the other guys knows even less. Therefore, he is a moron.

You moron.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Mays, haven't you figured it out yet?

We don't know shit about baseball. But the other guys knows even less. Therefore, he is a moron.

You moron.

All this global cooling is giving me cabin fever.

 

[MarcoPolo]

In the past, Sabes has decided "he must have" a particular player, and throws money at him early, then more and more, until he signs (or signs elsewhere). In the past, that has been disastrous. FINALLY, this year, it has saved the Giants money. Once in 15 years - thank you Sabean.

I think Pence is regretting signing that contract, even though he was jumping up and down about it in Oct.

 

[SF11704]

I think Pence is regretting signing that contract, even though he was jumping up and down about it in Oct.

Oh yes ..... I'm sure he wishes he had to do it ll over again .... I think his payday would have been quite a bit .... higher ...

 

[msgkings322]

Oh yes ..... I'm sure he wishes he had to do it ll over again .... I think his payday would have been quite a bit .... higher ...

You know, maybe I'm naive but I truly think at some point other considerations than top dollar come into play. Not for every guy of course, but at super high numbers squeezing out another couple million isn't always top priority.

Maybe Pence could have gotten a couple mil more a year from another team, but after taxes does his life change really if he pockets $8 mil instead of $7 mil a year? Meanwhile he gets stability and signs where he's comfortable, and beloved, and has won a ring. Would it be worth it to sign somewhere else, and have to start over, for that extra spending $? Again for some guys sure, but I just get the sense Pence factors in more than just that.

 

[tzill]

In the past, Sabes has decided "he must have" a particular player, and throws money at him early, then more and more, until he signs (or signs elsewhere). In the past, that has been disastrous. FINALLY, this year, it has saved the Giants money. Once in 15 years - thank you Sabean.

I think Pence is regretting signing that contract, even though he was jumping up and down about it in Oct.

I dunno, lets look at SS signings:

Cain: 6/128 -- 4.4 WAR with four years to go. Needs 19 WAR (4.5 WAR per year) to justify. This looks like a slight overpay.
Lincecum: 2/35 -- Needs 6.4 WAR, which his last 20 starts roughly project to. This looks fair.
Pence: 5/90 -- Needs 16.4 WAR, or 3.3 per year which is about his career average. Looks fair.
Buster: 9/167 -- Needs to average 3.1 WAR over the next 8 years. 5.2 WAR last year in an "off" season. Looks like a good contract.
Huddy 2/23 -- Needs 4.2 WAR in the next two years. This looks like a fair contract.
Pagan 4/40 -- Needs 6.3 WAR in the next three years. This looks fair.
Panda 3/17 -- Needed 3.1 WAR, has 4.7 already with a year to go. Awesome contract.
Scutaro 3/20 -- Needs 1.2 WAR over the next two years. Good value.
Affeldt 3/18 -- Needs 3.2 WAR in the next two years. Looks like an overpay.
Romo 2/9 -- Needs 0.9 WAR this year. Fair contract
Vogelsong 1/5 -- Needs 0.9 WAR this year. Low risk, decent reward. Good contract.
Casilla 3/15 -- Needs 1.1 WAR with two years to go. Fair contract.
Lopez 3/13 -- Needs 2.5 WAR to justify the contract, had 1.5 WAR the last 3 years. This might be an overpay
Bumgarner 5/35 -- 3.8 WAR with four years to go; he'll probably justify the entire contract by the end of 2014; best contract on the team.

So, to sum up, 3 overpays (Cain slightly, Affeldt, Lopez); 6 fair contracts (Lincecum, Pence, Huddy, Pagan, Romo, Casilla); and 5 values (Buster, Panda, Scoots, Bum, Tron). I'd say SabeySabes has done pretty well and gets it right considerably more than once every 15 years.

Disclaimers: I used $5.5MM/WAR which I think is pretty conservative (it will probably be more like $6-7MM in the next few years). I didn't adjust for postion (I'm still absorbing that data). I assumed relative health and average projections for all 14 players (you might argue that Buster will rapidly diminish five years out, Scoots will drop off the map, Tron will be a complete bust, etc.)

I would note that only Cain's contract is troublesome -- it's got 4 years to run at a high salary -- but the other overpays are short in length/not high salary. Also, a real good year or a real bad year can skew value assessments for an entire contract (e.g. if Cain had an average year in 2013 of 4.0 WAR instead of 1.0 WAR, his contract would be considered fair instead of a slight overpay. Similarly, if he has a 2009 season this year of 6+ WAR, his contract becomes fair).