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seahawksfan234
Radical Moderate
This is something I mentioned in the offseason thread but I feel deserves it's own discussion.
Here is how I project the Mariners lineup under the assumption there will be no more new additions:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Nelson Cruz, DH
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Logan Morrison, 1B
7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS
I don't know about you all, but the only part of that lineup that I have even the slightest modicum of confidence in is 3,4,5. Outside of that I believe that there are major concerns with every player in our lineup.
1. Austin Jackson, CF: Which Austin Jackson are the Mariners going to get this year? The guy who was an all around good runner, fielder and bat with the Tigers? Or the guy who hit .229/.267/.260 in his 50 games with the Mariners? From 2010 to 2013, Jackson finished every year with a WAR from 3.3-5.1, but in his 50 games with the Mariners it was 0.1. Jackson could either be a huge benefit to the Mariners this year, or he could be a serious problem in CF that may need to be addressed at the trade deadline.
2. Dustin Ackley, LF: Just like Logan Morrison, we seriously have to ask which Dustin Ackley are the Mariners going to get? Last year, people were optimistic about him because he hit .290/.360/.412 from July to September, yet he followed that up by hitting .214/.273/.329 in his first 74 games of 2014. He followed that up by hitting .274/.314/.463 with 10 HRs in his next 69 games, but who is to say he won't repeat the same dismal 2014 first half in 2015? Optimism going into 2014 was based on his impressive 2nd half in 2013, now we have optimism regarding his production going into 2015 based on his 2014 2nd half production. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for him to sport a terrible line at the plate next year.
3. Robinson Cano, 2B: This is the position I have the most confidence in going into 2015. I actually believe that Robinson Cano may improve on the year he had in 2014. Despite having a great AVG/OBP for the Mariners, his power production was down significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an improvement there from Cano. Even if we don't, he's still a great player.
4. Nelson Cruz, DH: Let me preface this by saying that I believe Cruz was a much needed addition. Is he going to hit like he did last year? I really doubt it. But 25-30 HRs and a .270 AVG and I'm happy, that alone would be a massive improvement at DH. Also, being DH'd will help keep him healthy, something he has struggled with.
5. Kyle Seager, 3B: My 2nd most comfortable position for the Mariners. Seager has steadily improved offensively and defensively over the last three years with the team. He's a fun player to watch.
6. Logan Morrison, 1B: Yikes. Logan Morrison is not a championship first basemen. Morrison is ridicuously streaky. He finished with a (by Mariners standards) respectable .260/.315/.420 line with 11 HR in 336 AB. Yet in his first 20 games he had a .164 BA, and had numerous 10+ game streaks in which he hit sub .200. You've got to have production from your starting first basemen, Morrison is a another serious question mark.
7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF: Mediocre.
8. Mike Zunino, C: It doesn't show up in the statsheet, but Zunino is a valuable player. Behind the plate he is great a pitch framing and is quietly one of the reasons why the Mariners pitchers had such a successful year in 2014. Our pitchers have been getting more called strikes with Zunino behind the plate. That being said, Zunino needs a shitload of work at the plate. His approach is abysmal. He has incredible strength and could someday be a 30+ HR hitter, but he's not going to do that with a .199 average. He also needs to work on getting on base more frequently, 17 walks in 131 games is reminicent of a former fat Cuban shortstop the Mariners used to have. He has only played 183 games in the major leagues, and played merely 96 games in the minor leagues, but he needs to improve offensively.
9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS: Who will start? Chris Taylor or Brad Miller? How will they perform? In 47 games Chris Taylor hit .287/.347/.346, but haven't we seen Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley and Brad Miller start off strong only to taper off? This is another position the Mariners need to consider going into the year, which is why it is smart to consider Ian Desmond as there is no guarantee that the Mariners will have major league level production from this position in 2015.
Overall I think that the Mariners have added enough to push themselves into the 90 win range next year, but that is assuming that many of these pieces hold. Perhaps I'm just being nitpicky, but I think the Mariners have concerns at at least 5 positions going into 2015. The pitching staff is phenominal, and this lineup may be just mediocre enough to finally get them some wins, but that is assuming a number of these guys don't implode in 2015.
Here is how I project the Mariners lineup under the assumption there will be no more new additions:
1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Dustin Ackley, LF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Nelson Cruz, DH
5. Kyle Seager, 3B
6. Logan Morrison, 1B
7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF
8. Mike Zunino, C
9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS
I don't know about you all, but the only part of that lineup that I have even the slightest modicum of confidence in is 3,4,5. Outside of that I believe that there are major concerns with every player in our lineup.
1. Austin Jackson, CF: Which Austin Jackson are the Mariners going to get this year? The guy who was an all around good runner, fielder and bat with the Tigers? Or the guy who hit .229/.267/.260 in his 50 games with the Mariners? From 2010 to 2013, Jackson finished every year with a WAR from 3.3-5.1, but in his 50 games with the Mariners it was 0.1. Jackson could either be a huge benefit to the Mariners this year, or he could be a serious problem in CF that may need to be addressed at the trade deadline.
2. Dustin Ackley, LF: Just like Logan Morrison, we seriously have to ask which Dustin Ackley are the Mariners going to get? Last year, people were optimistic about him because he hit .290/.360/.412 from July to September, yet he followed that up by hitting .214/.273/.329 in his first 74 games of 2014. He followed that up by hitting .274/.314/.463 with 10 HRs in his next 69 games, but who is to say he won't repeat the same dismal 2014 first half in 2015? Optimism going into 2014 was based on his impressive 2nd half in 2013, now we have optimism regarding his production going into 2015 based on his 2014 2nd half production. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for him to sport a terrible line at the plate next year.
3. Robinson Cano, 2B: This is the position I have the most confidence in going into 2015. I actually believe that Robinson Cano may improve on the year he had in 2014. Despite having a great AVG/OBP for the Mariners, his power production was down significantly. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an improvement there from Cano. Even if we don't, he's still a great player.
4. Nelson Cruz, DH: Let me preface this by saying that I believe Cruz was a much needed addition. Is he going to hit like he did last year? I really doubt it. But 25-30 HRs and a .270 AVG and I'm happy, that alone would be a massive improvement at DH. Also, being DH'd will help keep him healthy, something he has struggled with.
5. Kyle Seager, 3B: My 2nd most comfortable position for the Mariners. Seager has steadily improved offensively and defensively over the last three years with the team. He's a fun player to watch.
6. Logan Morrison, 1B: Yikes. Logan Morrison is not a championship first basemen. Morrison is ridicuously streaky. He finished with a (by Mariners standards) respectable .260/.315/.420 line with 11 HR in 336 AB. Yet in his first 20 games he had a .164 BA, and had numerous 10+ game streaks in which he hit sub .200. You've got to have production from your starting first basemen, Morrison is a another serious question mark.
7. Justin Ruggiano/Brad Miller, RF: Mediocre.
8. Mike Zunino, C: It doesn't show up in the statsheet, but Zunino is a valuable player. Behind the plate he is great a pitch framing and is quietly one of the reasons why the Mariners pitchers had such a successful year in 2014. Our pitchers have been getting more called strikes with Zunino behind the plate. That being said, Zunino needs a shitload of work at the plate. His approach is abysmal. He has incredible strength and could someday be a 30+ HR hitter, but he's not going to do that with a .199 average. He also needs to work on getting on base more frequently, 17 walks in 131 games is reminicent of a former fat Cuban shortstop the Mariners used to have. He has only played 183 games in the major leagues, and played merely 96 games in the minor leagues, but he needs to improve offensively.
9. Brad Miller/Chris Taylor, SS: Who will start? Chris Taylor or Brad Miller? How will they perform? In 47 games Chris Taylor hit .287/.347/.346, but haven't we seen Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley and Brad Miller start off strong only to taper off? This is another position the Mariners need to consider going into the year, which is why it is smart to consider Ian Desmond as there is no guarantee that the Mariners will have major league level production from this position in 2015.
Overall I think that the Mariners have added enough to push themselves into the 90 win range next year, but that is assuming that many of these pieces hold. Perhaps I'm just being nitpicky, but I think the Mariners have concerns at at least 5 positions going into 2015. The pitching staff is phenominal, and this lineup may be just mediocre enough to finally get them some wins, but that is assuming a number of these guys don't implode in 2015.