B12 expansion

[Red_Alert]

I would honestly like for ND and BYU to come to some sort of agreement and play on Championship Saturday, and each have a 13th game. I can understand why that wouldn't be ideal every year, nobody would watch a 8-4 ND against an 8-4 BYU for example.

Is that within NCAA guidelines?

To my knowledge the only way a team can play 13 games without a CCG is if they play Hawaii.

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[ericd7633]

Is that within NCAA guidelines?

To my knowledge the only way a team can play 13 games without a CCG is if they play Hawaii.

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I don't even know. Probably isn't. My line of thinking was that it would be the only game that could give a playoff worthy ND another quality opponent.

 

[Codaxx]

I don't even know. Probably isn't. My line of thinking was that it would be the only game that could give a playoff worthy ND another quality opponent.

I doubt ND gets left out if they have a solid SOS and 1 loss. The worst part about CFB and the playoffs is probably the fact that your admission is highly dependent on the success of your opponents in their other games. Basically, a lot of the equation is out of your hands

 

[Red_Alert]

I don't even know. Probably isn't. My line of thinking was that it would be the only game that could give a playoff worthy ND another quality opponent.

Yeah. ND is probably in the worst possible position in an (11-1) scenario.

 

[ericd7633]

I doubt ND gets left out if they have a solid SOS and 1 loss. The worst part about CFB and the playoffs is probably the fact that your admission is highly dependent on the success of your opponents in their other games. Basically, a lot of the equation is out of your hands

Yeah I would agree. It would really help if they play and beat the ACC Champ to have that advantage. If ND beats Clemson last year, I think they get in. Problem is they'll only play Clemson/FSU once every 3 years or something like that, so they won't have that opportunity every year.

 

[Codaxx]

Yeah I would agree. It would really help if they play and beat the ACC Champ to have that advantage. If ND beats Clemson last year, I think they get in. Problem is they'll only play Clemson/FSU once every 3 years or something like that, so they won't have that opportunity every year.

ND has MSU, Texas, Stanford, USC, and VT next year. IF Standford/MSU stay the course and USC/Texas play more in-line to historical norms, then ND will be fine.

 

[nddulac]

Given an algorithm I'd have to believe it would project 12 and 13 win teams to be the vast majority of play-off teams 10 years from now. (11-1) teams would likely take a back seat every year 12 and 13 win conference champs were available to fill the four slots.

Given the fraction of teams that only play 12-game schedules, I would say that you are kind of hedging your bet. Of course there will be more 12 win teams because more conferences have 12+CCG game schedules. But that doesn't mean that the championship game gives them an advantage.

 

[Red_Alert]

I doubt ND gets left out if they have a solid SOS and 1 loss. The worst part about CFB and the playoffs is probably the fact that your admission is highly dependent on the success of your opponents in their other games. Basically, a lot of the equation is out of your hands

The admission is "highly dependent" on being conference champs with a record equal to or greater than the others.
(11-1) Oklahoma gets in over an (11-2) SEC champ last season.
(12-1) Stanford gets in over (11-1) Oklahoma last season.

That is highly likely what the data showed Bowlsby. A team is going to get more rewarded for the extra win. They will be punished for an extra loss.

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[GoldRusher]

Yeah. ND is probably in the worst possible position in an (11-1) scenario.

Meh ND's Schedule is usually strong enough to get them by... Usually

 

[Red_Alert]

Given the fraction of teams that only play 12-game schedules, I would say that you are kind of hedging your bet. Of course there will be more 12 win teams because more conferences have 12+CCG game schedules. But that doesn't mean that the championship game gives them an advantage.

The extra win is what gives them the advantage. Just like an extra loss would be a disadvantage.

(12-1) >>> (11-1)
(11-1) >>> (11-2)

 

[Lance Armstrong]

I would honestly like for ND and BYU to come to some sort of agreement and play on Championship Saturday, and each have a 13th game. I can understand why that wouldn't be ideal every year, nobody would watch a 8-4 ND against an 8-4 BYU for example.

does it really matter? the SEC west feeds on some crap SEC east team usually. More often than not the Big ten west team will suck also. Play any game, get to 13 if you can.

 

[nddulac]

If ND beats Clemson last year, I think they get in.

I think that typically, a one-loss Notre Dame team would need two P5 conference champions to have two losses in order to make the playoffs. A win over Clemson certainly would have helped the Irish' cause, but the loss to Stanford would have killed them.

I said in the first year of the CFP that the selection would never get any easier than it was that year, with six teams fighting for four spots. It took exactly one season for me to have to eat those words, as last year there were four deserving teams "fighting" for four sports. What is really going to throw it all into a mess is when there is at least one 2-loss P5 conference champion guaranteed going into the CCGs, and then one of the other P5 conference championship games produces an upset, insuring two (or more) P5 conference champions with two or more losses. That's when the shit will really hit the fan.

Up to now, there have been no upsets in conference championship games that produced a two-loss conference champion, so I think people have discounted that possibility.

 

[nddulac]

Basically, a lot of the equation is out of your hands

That is true i so many areas of life . ..

 

[Codaxx]

The admission is "highly dependent" on being conference champs (yes) with a record equal to or greater than the others (no idea).
(11-1) Oklahoma gets in over an (11-2) SEC champ last season.
(12-1) Stanford gets in over (11-1) Oklahoma last season.

That is highly likely what the data showed Bowlsby. A team is going to get more rewarded for the extra win. They will be punished for an extra loss.

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Conference champ has been mentioned, but not tested. I showed that SOS seemed to actually be the driver. If you are saying a 12 win team with an identical SOS with an 11 win team will have an advantage, than I agree that in that highly unlikely scenario that is an advantage. There has been 0 situations were an 11-1 team has been jumped by a 12-1 team with a lower SOS, so I dont see why anyone would have confidence in the theory of an extra game

 

[Red_Alert]

Meh ND's Schedule is usually strong enough to get them by... Usually

No argument from me. However, the CFP rules include conference champions in their selection options. That tells me the Big 12 would have some advantage over ND in (11-1) scenarios.

 

[nddulac]

The extra win is what gives them the advantage. Just like an extra loss would be a disadvantage.

Once again, you've entirely missed the point. Let me explain it another way.

Suppose you live in a county where 90% of the cows are brown. You go around one day and count all of the cows you see and note the color. You see the pattern that most the cows you have seen are brown. So, you conclude that being brown makes it more likely to be seen if you happen to be a cow.

 

[Codaxx]

No argument from me. However, the CFP rules include conference champions in their selection options. That tells me the Big 12 would have some advantage over ND in (11-1) scenarios.

I would not put too much stock in anything CFP says or does prior to making selections. There is no written formula, so you have no idea how they will value the different components that make up a resume in any particular year.

 

[Red_Alert]

does it really matter? the SEC west feeds on some crap SEC east team usually. More often than not the Big ten west team will suck also. Play any game, get to 13 if you can.

That is laughable coming from CFB's biggest under-achievers.

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[starbigd]

I think the B12 has to expand......but I don't think a conference network will matter as long as we have the schools we have. NOBODY is going to buy that package unless we can poach bigger name teams to join.

The problem, as usual, is WHO to go after. Virtually nobody in the current footprint will make any positive momentum in terms of viewership. Most schools that will are well out of the footprint geographically.

I still think a 1 loss or undefeated OU or Texas gets in regardless of whether they expand or not though.

 

[TexasExes98]

The new SWC

North

TCU
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St
Kansas St
Iowa St
SMU
North Texas

South

Texas
Baylor
UTEP
Rice
Houston
Texas St
Texas San Antonio

.

Still a thousand times tougher than the B1G....