B12 expansion

[Red_Alert]

What kind of fucking crock of shit is this?

"Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said the analytics firm the league recently hired, Navigate Research, revealed that a 12-team league with an eight-game conference schedule and a championship game was the best model for putting a team in the CFP."

How in the bloody hell does anyone who knows thing one about statistics draw this conclusion on existing data? After all, no conference with a twelve school membership and eight game conference schedule has made the CFP to date. So on what data is this conclusion based?

Well you certainly don't want to be the only (11-1) team when the other four P-5's have (12-1) and (13-0) teams.

The CCG gives a team a chance at that 12th or 13th win.

Baylor/TCU learned the hard way in 2014.

If the PAC has a (12-1) or (13-1) in 2015, then Oklahoma probably gets left out due to their loss to non-bowl eligible tejas.

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[nddulac]

If the PAC has a (12-1) or (13-1) in 2015, then Oklahoma probably gets left out due to their loss to non-bowl eligible tejas.

And if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it ass a-hoppin'.

Just wait until the first time a conference produces only one team with one loss, and that team loses in the title game. Oh wait that scenario has burned the Big12 more than any other conference! But no one is supposed to remember that because it doesn't fit the narrative.

 

[Red_Alert]

And if a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it ass a-hoppin'.

Just wait until the first time a conference produces only one team with one loss, and that team loses in the title game. Oh wait that scenario has burned the Big12 more than any other conference! But no one is supposed to remember that because it doesn't fit the narrative.

Just face the obvious of where your butt-hurt stems.

Unless Notre Lame goes undefeated, they are likely to be left out in the cold (year in and year out) if the Big 12 gets a CCG.

SEC Champ
Big 10 Champ
PAC Champ
ACC Champ
Big 12 Champ
v
v
v
Notre Lame

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[nddulac]

Just face the obvious of where your butt-hurt stems.

Unless Notre Lame goes undefeated, they are likely to be left out in the cold (year in and year out) if the Big 12 gets a CCG.

What makes you think this has anything to do with Notre Dame?

Here is the problem with you (pathetic) atempt to start a fight - I agree that only an undefeated Notre Dame would be able to make an unambiguous claim to a spot in the playoff. Even a 1-loss team would have to depend on the cards falling right. For example, had Notre Dame beaten Stanford last year, I would not have put them in the playoffs over the four teams that were included.

That said, Big12 expansion has nothing to do with Notre Dame. (It doesn't have anything to do with Nebraska either.)

 

[Olyduck]

Ever since it has been a thing and talking about expanding Ive had a concern of Big 12 going for Arizona and Arizona State. not sure if it would ever happen though.

 

[nddulac]

Ever since it has been a thing and talking about expanding Ive had a concern of Big 12 going for Arizona and Arizona State. not sure if it would ever happen though.

I'm not sure what the B12 has to offer the Arizona schools that the Pac-12 doesn't have.

I mean - I suppose they could panic like dumbass Bowlsby and jump ship since last year PROVES the Pac-12 can never get a team into the championship. (Logic that is every bit as sound and data-driven as the conclusion that a championship game is necessary to get a team in.)

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Of course a 12 team, 8 conference game schedule is helpful. 1 less conference game for everybody means less losses for the league. 14 team league is just dumb, I hope they don't do that. BYU and Colorado state should be the targets.

 

[GoldRusher]

Ever since it has been a thing and talking about expanding Ive had a concern of Big 12 going for Arizona and Arizona State. not sure if it would ever happen though.

Could Arizona or Arizona State be interested in the Big 12? | NewsOK.com
Yup, might raid the PAC too, that'll teach them to turn away Texas...

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Could Arizona or Arizona State be interested in the Big 12? | NewsOK.com
Yup, might raid the PAC too, that'll teach them to turn away Texas...

7 Pac schools are in an NFL market, makes sense why the network is failing.

 

[Deep Creek]

Baylor/TCU learned the hard way in 2014.

Meh, I disagree. tOSU's performance in their 2014 CCG would have still trumped a 12-1 CCG winner Baylor or TCU.

Now, if it had been a Texas or OU CCG winner with the same 12-1 record as the Bucknuts, that may have been problematic for the selection committee.

 

[Codaxx]

Meh, I disagree. tOSU's performance in their 2014 CCG would have still trumped a 12-1 CCG winner Baylor or TCU.

Now, if it had been a Texas or OU CCG winner with the same 12-1 record as the Bucknuts, that may have been problematic for the selection committee.

Exactly. The facts say that a 1 loss Big 12 champion gets in 50% of the time. That is all we know. 2 seasons is hardly enough evidence for a logical person to make judgement. I would speculate the decal on the helmet of a 1 loss team is just as important as the conference patch on the jersey. Though I can not prove it.

 

[Red_Alert]

Meh, I disagree. tOSU's performance in their 2014 CCG would have still trumped a 12-1 CCG winner Baylor or TCU.

Now, if it had been a Texas or OU CCG winner with the same 12-1 record as the Bucknuts, that may have been problematic for the selection committee.

At (12-1) Baylor or TCU would have had the better loss though. Wasn't that one of the arguments at the time?

The point being a (12-1) is going to trump an (11-1) the majority of the time.

Oklahoma beat out Iowa last year because the Big 10 already had a CFP rep and Iowa's (12-1) schedule was questionable.

If the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and PAC all have 12 or 13 win teams, the Big 12 and Notre Dame will be left out unless they have a (12-0) rep.

It would be wise for Big 12 teams and Notre Dame to schedule Hawaii frequently to get the 13th game.

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[Red_Alert]

LOL @ tejas having to gobble up more mid-majors to keep their shit-show going.

 

[Codaxx]

At (12-1) Baylor or TCU would have had the better loss though. Wasn't that one of the arguments at the time?

The point being a (12-1) is going to trump an (11-1) the majority of the time.

Oklahoma beat out Iowa last year because the Big 10 already had a CFP rep and Iowa's (12-1) schedule was questionable.

If the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and PAC all have 12 or 13 win teams, the Big 12 and Notre Dame will be left out unless they have a (12-0) rep.

It would be wise for Big 12 teams and Notre Dame to schedule Hawaii frequently to get the 13th game.

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It all depends how people look at the schedules. Saying 12-1 beats 11-1 most of the time is too simplistic. It should come down to the difficulty of only losing a single game along that path. It is only season 2, so anyone claiming to know how things work is lying to themselves. Just a look at what we know:

1. SEC has had 1 loss team both years and ranked top 2 each year. They have been the highest rated 1 loss team in each playoff and even ahead of an undefeated ACC team once. Limited data, but the SEC looks to be the favorite son.
2. ACC had the only undefeated team ranked 3rd and 1st. Year 1 certainly makes you wonder where the ACC would stand with a 1 loss champ
3. Big 10 has had 1 loss champ make it each year. Never having a seed higher than #3. Taken the backseat to the 1 loss SEC team each year, PAC once, and seeded ahead of the Big 12. Does that put the Big 10 #3 in line?
4. Big 12 1 loss team has been seeded below the SEC and Big 10 every year. Also behind a PAC 1 loss team once. Seems likely to be at least the 4th pick, but the question is where does the Big 12 stand vs the ACC?

All of these observations are based on limited information.

Now add SOS based on Colley (which is strictly record based, so "unbiased")

2015 SOS
prior to playoffs
Bama: #9
MSU: #12
Clemson: #53
OKlahoma: #36
OSU: #43

Oddly Colley has the 1 loss teams seeded Bama, MSU, and OU with OSU the 1st out.

2014:
FSU: #43
Bama: #8
OSU: #31
Oregon: #37
TCU: #67
Baylor: #74

Taking these it seems the Big 10 was actually screwed a bit as the PAC jumped them, despite a slightly weaker schedule. Big 12 contenders just didnt have the necessary SOS.

It seems the Big 12 has not been at an disadvantage to the other Conferences, when you apply the Colley Matrix SOS. Undefeated teams seem to have no real correlation to their seedings (small sample size). SEC has been given the top seed as a 1 loss team, but had the highest SOS in each year, so calling it a bias seems misguided. Big 12 has been seeded dead on its ranking. Pac is the only conference to gain an advantage. Big 10 is the only conference seeded below its SOS.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

LOL @ tejas having to gobble up more mid-majors to keep their shit-show going.

You're in the worst division in college football, calm down.

 

[Deep Creek]

At (12-1) Baylor or TCU would have had the better loss though. Wasn't that one of the arguments at the time?

The point being a (12-1) is going to trump an (11-1) the majority of the time.

Oklahoma beat out Iowa last year because the Big 10 already had a CFP rep and Iowa's (12-1) schedule was questionable.

If the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and PAC all have 12 or 13 win teams, the Big 12 and Notre Dame will be left out unless they have a (12-0) rep.

It would be wise for Big 12 teams and Notre Dame to schedule Hawaii frequently to get the 13th game.

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Jeff Long did refer to "good losses" IIRC. You are correct there. But, Baylor lost late and I'm not sure Baylor's loss to WVA would have been considered any better than tOSU's loss to VippySue. And Baylor didn't have anywhere near as impressive a win as the CCG ass whoopin' the Bucknuts put on Wisky.

I agree a 12-1 will most likely get the nod over an 11-1 and rightly so...unless four of those 12 are against something like Baylor's OOC the past couple of years.

I also agree Notre Dame and the Big 12 nearly have to have undefeated champions if the other leagues have one loss champions.

 

[Codaxx]

Jeff Long did refer to "good losses" IIRC. You are correct there. But, Baylor lost late and I'm not sure Baylor's loss to WVA would have been considered any better than tOSU's loss to VippySue. And Baylor didn't have anywhere near as impressive a win as the CCG ass whoopin' the Bucknuts put on Wisky.

I agree a 12-1 will most likely get the nod over an 11-1 and rightly so...unless four of those 12 are against something like Baylor's OOC the past couple of years.

I also agree Notre Dame and the Big 12 nearly have to have undefeated champions if the other leagues have one loss champions.

The only issue is that has not played out and seems to be more of a BS story

 

[Red_Alert]

The fact is 7 of the 8 play-off teams have had 12 or more wins. The lone 11 win team (Oklahoma) got in because the PAC champ (also 11 wins) had 2 losses.
Iowa didn't get in because they'd had the recent loss in the Big 10 CCG and the Big 10 had another 12 win team that was champ.

Given an algorithm I'd have to believe it would project 12 and 13 win teams to be the vast majority of play-off teams 10 years from now. (11-1) teams would likely take a back seat every year 12 and 13 win conference champs were available to fill the four slots.

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[Codaxx]

The fact is 7 of the 8 play-off teams have had 12 or more wins. The lone 11 win team (Oklahoma) got in because the PAC champ (also 11 wins) had 2 losses.
Iowa didn't get in because they'd had the recent loss in the Big 10 CCG and the Big 10 had another 12 win team that was champ.

Given an algorithm I'd have to believe it would project 12 and 13 win teams to be the vast majority of play-off teams 10 years from now. (11-1) teams would likely take a back seat every year 12 and 13 win conference champs were available to fill the four slots.

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but we dont know that. In fact the numbers showed that the Big 12 was seeded dead on its SOS numbers. 11/12 game argument is a gross simplification. I think who you play over your 11 or 12 games will end up being much more important than the number of games you played. Perhaps 2014 can be explained not by the amount of games, but rather the difficulty of schedule. Baylor had far and away the weakest SOS, but people seem to ignore that for the more media friendly version of the story

 

[ericd7633]

At (12-1) Baylor or TCU would have had the better loss though. Wasn't that one of the arguments at the time?

The point being a (12-1) is going to trump an (11-1) the majority of the time.

Oklahoma beat out Iowa last year because the Big 10 already had a CFP rep and Iowa's (12-1) schedule was questionable.

If the SEC, ACC, Big 10, and PAC all have 12 or 13 win teams, the Big 12 and Notre Dame will be left out unless they have a (12-0) rep.

It would be wise for Big 12 teams and Notre Dame to schedule Hawaii frequently to get the 13th game.

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I would honestly like for ND and BYU to come to some sort of agreement and play on Championship Saturday, and each have a 13th game. I can understand why that wouldn't be ideal every year, nobody would watch a 8-4 ND against an 8-4 BYU for example.