At end of training camp, Guice's revenge and Keenum ahead in QB race

[tomcat1]

Well I had a string of 6-10 predictions for quite a few years . I dont see any hype for this team and one can only wonder what would have been if we weren’t trampled by injuries .

I see this team being better then last years team and capable of 9 wins . Will it be enough ? Depends on what we do in the nfc and the nfc east

You might be pretty close if you predict 6-10 again this season although as I said earlier today I think we've got a shot at winning 7 or maybe even 8 with a lucky bounce or two but not 9. If you happen to be right I will be the first one to congratulate you with your great prediction but I just don't see it happening. I think next year at this time we will all be talking about how we think our new head coach and his staff will do with Haskins having to learn a new system all over again.

 

[Sportster 72]

[QUOTE


I've always respected your Redskins posts but you don't sound very confident, nor do I.

You said "overall health" and we both know with our history that is unlikely to happen.
You said "I think we will run the ball halfway decent" but you didn't say decent.
You said "A healthy Jordan Reed for most of the season" but history is not on our side for that to happen either.

In fact, I agree with all of your hopes that you pointed out but quality teams that make the playoffs on a consistent basis don't have to do as much hoping as we are doing, right?

Thank you. Yes I have a lot of ifs in there and many are based on us knowing things like Reed staying healthy or the OL staying healthy and as dad mentioned Penn and Martin helping the left side of the line so we can run the ball. I noted during the game when Martin came in the game last week (he played with both Penn and Christian) that they ran better to the left at that point in the game.

Health is always part of the equation in football unless you are a deep team like the Patriots. Some years the injury bug bites you on the ass and some years teams stay fairly healthy.

I think the team could win 8 or 9 games but a lot of things are going to have to go right. As mentioned in a previous post I think this team will have to win with defense and a good running game. My number 1 need in this draft was a good edge rusher to compliment Kerrigan and the DL … we got that in Sweat …. I hope. IMO Haskins is the bonus who should be ready next year or the year after. McLaurin, Holcomb and Moreland could be the gems of the draft.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

dad, if you will think back to just last season when you bought into all of the hype and predicted the Redskins would finish 10-6 when I was the only one here who correctly predicted we would finish 7-9 that should answer your question because I think you might be buying into more hype again. Now don't get me wrong because I'm not trying to toot my own horn but I live in the real world and Vegas is not in the business of losing money or they wouldn't be putting up millions of dollars in lighting in their sportsbooks to blind the public. Vegas has to put up a sharp number to get action on both sides because they are going to get their 10% vig on all losing bets and they are historically very close on their number. I bet on sports year round and I have never had a losing season in any sport. It's not because of what I know or don't know, it's because I get great information from those in the know and my sources are telling me that 6 1/2 wins for the Redskins this season is risky on the over or under which means I won't bet it either way since there will be many opportunities during the course of a long football season that won't be as risky. I never bet on a puncher's chance because a knockout artist always wins but if we are 2-3 at the end of week 5 I will be very happy since I am a Redskins fan. Do I think we will finish better this year than we did last year? Maybe, but not enough to put any real money on it.

2018 NFL odds, Vegas season win totals: SportsLine projections see value in AFC West

The NFL is unlike many of the other pro leagues. There are surprise teams every season (both those that overperform & underperform). See the attached link. This references your pt about Vegas. These 2018 predictions appeared to be about rt at that time & I assume that other win totals by other casinos/oddsmakers were similar at the time.

Sure they nailed it with predictions for some teams (Skins, Pats, etc). However they were way off for other teams both in predicting too many wins (Packers, Jags, 49ers) as well as picking way too few wins (Colts, Bears). This happens every season. There are way too many variables to confidently pick the exact or close record for each team.

Factors such as injuries, young player development & flat out luck influence the outcomes (doesn't have to be every time - just a handful of plays could have a huge impact). I would also challenge your statement that the Skins past injuries translate into injury issues for the upcoming season. Sure - some of this is related to trainers, facilities & field conditions. However I would maintain that a bigger factor is just bad luck. Broken bones & screwed up knees are usually related to big hits, unfortunate conditions (e.g. player falling on another player) & just bad luck overall. There is no way to predict the injury factor for the Skins for the upcoming season.

I am not saying that the Redskins will have a breakout season - just that it is to early to tell & they very well may do better than expected - time will tell.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

BTW - just because someone has a winning season on betting sports doesn't mean that you pick all of the games / team totals correctly. 51% is winning & I am pretty sure nobody is picking 80%+ of games correct (if so they would practically own Vegas). You could be ahead for the season & still be wrong on a lot of the games & win totals for various teams. Also - congrats on picking the Skins win total last season, but that doesn't mean that this is going to be the case every season.

 

[tomcat1]

Thank you. Yes I have a lot of ifs in there and many are based on us knowing things like Reed staying healthy or the OL staying healthy and as dad mentioned Penn and Martin helping the left side of the line so we can run the ball. I noted during the game when Martin came in the game last week (he played with both Penn and Christian) that they ran better to the left at that point in the game.

Health is always part of the equation in football unless you are a deep team like the Patriots. Some years the injury bug bites you on the ass and some years teams stay fairly healthy.

I think the team could win 8 or 9 games but a lot of things are going to have to go right. As mentioned in a previous post I think this team will have to win with defense and a good running game. My number 1 need in this draft was a good edge rusher to compliment Kerrigan and the DL … we got that in Sweat …. I hope. IMO Haskins is the bonus who should be ready next year or the year after. McLaurin, Holcomb and Moreland could be the gems of the draft.

I agree! We all have high hopes for any of our teams going into a new season but I just don't see the 2019 version of the Redskins being as good as some people here do. With that said, I really like our last two drafts and our future appears to be bright to be competitive again in possibly 2020, 2021, and beyond.

 

[tomcat1]

2018 NFL odds, Vegas season win totals: SportsLine projections see value in AFC West

The NFL is unlike many of the other pro leagues. There are surprise teams every season (both those that overperform & underperform). See the attached link. This references your pt about Vegas. These 2018 predictions appeared to be about rt at that time & I assume that other win totals by other casinos/oddsmakers were similar at the time.

Sure they nailed it with predictions for some teams (Skins, Pats, etc). However they were way off for other teams both in predicting too many wins (Packers, Jags, 49ers) as well as picking way too few wins (Colts, Bears). This happens every season. There are way too many variables to confidently pick the exact or close record for each team.

Factors such as injuries, young player development & flat out luck influence the outcomes (doesn't have to be every time - just a handful of plays could have a huge impact). I would also challenge your statement that the Skins past injuries translate into injury issues for the upcoming season. Sure - some of this is related to trainers, facilities & field conditions. However I would maintain that a bigger factor is just bad luck. Broken bones & screwed up knees are usually related to big hits, unfortunate conditions (e.g. player falling on another player) & just bad luck overall. There is no way to predict the injury factor for the Skins for the upcoming season.

I am not saying that the Redskins will have a breakout season - just that it is to early to tell & they very well may do better than expected - time will tell.

You are absolutely correct and this is why they call it gambling and particularly with futures betting. There are many intangibles that even the best sports handicappers cannot handicap in the game of football and you mentioned several of them. Another one is turnovers and that's a big one. I rarely make any futures bets because of all of these factors but on game day I've been fortunate enough to receive great information over the years when smart money starts moving the betting line about 20 to 30 minutes prior to kickoff. There's and old saying that is so true today when it comes to winning at sports betting which is 'smart money bets early, smart money bets late, and all of those in between are the ones that take the bait'.

 

[tomcat1]

BTW - just because someone has a winning season on betting sports doesn't mean that you pick all of the games / team totals correctly. 51% is winning & I am pretty sure nobody is picking 80%+ of games correct (if so they would practically own Vegas). You could be ahead for the season & still be wrong on a lot of the games & win totals for various teams. Also - congrats on picking the Skins win total last season, but that doesn't mean that this is going to be the case every season.

Thank you but that was just luck and just for fun when we were all picking what the Skins record would be last season but that didn't win me even a cup of coffee and a donut.

The key to winning at sports for real money consistently is simply following the 'sharps', those that make a very good living betting on sports.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

Thank you but that was just luck and just for fun when we were all picking what the Skins record would be last season but that didn't win me even a cup of coffee and a donut.

The key to winning at sports for real money consistently is simply following the 'sharps', those that make a very good living betting on sports.

Hey - don't get me wrong. I am impressed with your predictions - luck or not. Sorry that you weren't able to actually make some $$ of that prediction.

 

[tomcat1]

Hey - don't get me wrong. I am impressed with your predictions - luck or not. Sorry that you weren't able to actually make some $$ of that prediction.

Hey man, thank you again but that was just all in fun with all of us Redskins buddies.

My serious sources have taken good care of me for 20+ years straight when it comes to winning on sports and I don't mind admitting that when they tell me to bet against the Redskins I do it in a heart beat because I know nothing compared to them. I guess that's why they are called 'sharps' and I'm called a 'square' when it comes to sports betting terminology.

 

[reptec101]

Keenum will be your starter week one and beyond. Like someone already mentioned I don't need any article telling me anything. Just watch the games. Haskins looks more green then the alien walking around area 51. I'm so sick and tired of going into a season knowing already that it will be another mediocre year. Give me something I can use already. Just win a playoff game and im good for another 5 years. Something for Gods sake.

 

[tomcat1]

Keenum will be your starter week one and beyond. Like someone already mentioned I don't need any article telling me anything. Just watch the games. Haskins looks more green then the alien walking around area 51. I'm so sick and tired of going into a season knowing already that it will be another mediocre year. Give me something I can use already. Just win a playoff game and im good for another 5 years. Something for Gods sake.

I couldn't have said what you said any better. Way too many people buy into the media hype on all teams. We even have a few people here that use the words Redskins and playoffs in the same sentence which I think is a real stretch.

 

[SoCalWizFan]

I couldn't have said what you said any better. Way too many people buy into the media hype on all teams. We even have a few people here that use the words Redskins and playoffs in the same sentence which I think is a real stretch.

I am not expecting playoffs & really I am just looking for a group of players to emerge so that this team can be competitive in a year or two. I don't have high expectations for Haskins & realize that areas like the O line may be in rebuild mold. That being said I also don't necessarily expect them to be bad across the board & expect some major contributions from various players.

Things may turn out to be really bad or they may be somewhat surprising. I just know that people need to stop overreacting to preseason games & also to media hacks who in this age don't know a whole lot more than any of us on this forum (possibly less in many cases). Just don't expect much & enjoy whatever happens for the better - so long as they show at least the beginning of building a decent team for the future.

 

[tomcat1]

I am not expecting playoffs & really I am just looking for a group of players to emerge so that this team can be competitive in a year or two. I don't have high expectations for Haskins & realize that areas like the O line may be in rebuild mold. That being said I also don't necessarily expect them to be bad across the board & expect some major contributions from various players.

Things may turn out to be really bad or they may be somewhat surprising. I just know that people need to stop overreacting to preseason games & also to media hacks who in this age don't know a whole lot more than any of us on this forum (possibly less in many cases). Just don't expect much & enjoy whatever happens for the better - so long as they show at least the beginning of building a decent team for the future.

Well said and I certainly was not referring to you as one of those here who uses to words Redskins and playoffs in the same sentence. And, I have not said the Redskins will not make the playoffs. I've simply said that I think it's a real stretch to think this will happen and so does Vegas since they have their total wins for the season for futures betting set at 6 1/2 wins. If I had to bet this total I would probably bet the OVER and probably be on pins and needles going into Week 16 hoping for that 7th win to win the bet but since I won't be betting this total either way I will just hope that I will be pleasantly surprised at the end of Week 16.

 

[skinsdad62]

i think the skins will compete for a playoff spot . they did last season and i expect no less this year

 

[Sportster 72]

One year the Redskins went 04 in the preseason. Steve Buckhantz was interviewing Joe Gibbs after the game questioning him about how some people were picking the Redskins to go to the Super Bowl. Joe asked who was picking the Skins to go to the Super Bowl and Buckhantz replied that Playboy was one of the folks that picked the Redskins to go to the Super Bowl. Joe in his ultra high angry voice said something to the effect of "well there you go … Playboy picking football!!" Guess who won the Super Bowl.

I agree it is an outside chance the Skins go to the playoffs but my point is …. lets not let two preseason games be the final indicator. Now I would tend to believe Vegas before preseason game.

 

[tomcat1]

One year the Redskins went 04 in the preseason. Steve Buckhantz was interviewing Joe Gibbs after the game questioning him about how some people were picking the Redskins to go to the Super Bowl. Joe asked who was picking the Skins to go to the Super Bowl and Buckhantz replied that Playboy was one of the folks that picked the Redskins to go to the Super Bowl. Joe in his ultra high angry voice said something to the effect of "well there you go … Playboy picking football!!" Guess who won the Super Bowl.

I agree it is an outside chance the Skins go to the playoffs but my point is …. lets not let two preseason games be the final indicator. Now I would tend to believe Vegas before preseason game.

I don't pay attention to any pre-season games because they don't even resemble what the games for all the teams will be like in Week 1. In fact, along with many others, I wish they would do away with all of the pre-season games and allow all the teams to spend that time in their own camps to develop the best product they can to put on the field in Week 1.

 

[Laconic37]

Im drinking the kool aid, but if Trent was in camp right now I would say our DL, OL, are solid. We have solid depth at RB. I think our WRs will surprise, Hilliard says its the best group he's been around. Our LBs and CB are average. We just need to surprise a couple at the start of the season and we could push for 9-7

 

[reptec101]

Im drinking the kool aid, but if Trent was in camp right now I would say our DL, OL, are solid. We have solid depth at RB. I think our WRs will surprise, Hilliard says its the best group he's been around. Our LBs and CB are average. We just need to surprise a couple at the start of the season and we could push for 9-7

It seems every time a coach or player comes to a new team it's always the best crop of guys or the most talent ive been around yada yada yada. Let's just hope he can coach em up to become that.

 

[tomcat1]

It seems every time a coach or player comes to a new team it's always the best crop of guys or the most talent ive been around yada yada yada. Let's just hope he can coach em up to become that.

Yep, I think we've seen this movie before during Snyder's ownership.

 

[skinsdad62]

This is a better team. That alone gives me hope.

OFFENSE
QB: better – Keenum may not be all pro, but he’s proven a serviceable QB. This is better than the clown show we ended up with last year.
RB: better – AP & CT are back, and now we have Guice to add to the mix
WRs: better – we lost Crowder, but early signs are that McLaurin is the real deal, and Harmon is showing some promise as well
TEs: same – although Reed is claiming it’s the first time in years he’s fully healthy for camp
OL: worse – though this really only involves TW. At every other position we are the same or better.

DEFENSE
DL: better – same group with a year of experience together
EDGE: better – Sweat is an upgrade over Smith, and McKinzy is showing some good development
LB: ??? – we didn’t have stellar play last year, so it’s really unknown how this year will compare
CB: better – return of Dunbar, improvement in Moreau, and addition of Moreland makes this a better unit
S: better – Collins is better than DJ, and we return Nicholson, hopefully with his head on straight

So all things considered, we are a better football team this year than last year, and last year we were 1 win away from the playoffs. I’m not predicting great things for this team, but I am certainly not seeing this team as being worse. Of course, injuries can change all of that in a hurry.

Here’s something optimistic to consider: TW isn’t traded and ends up returning to the team after 3 or 4 games. This means he’s ready to go after the bye week. Sound like a pretty decent time to see how Haskins works behind a legit OL with a good running game and a solid defense??

from a poster on another site . i can agree with some of this